Support NeoGAF

[Cosmonaut X]

I'm talking about Japan. The US, while slipping slightly is still pounding the competition easily. The US and EU situations can easily be reversed. Japan, however, is lost.

With all due respect, aren't you just indulging in hyperbole here, Dragona? Nintendo's position is certainly not as strong as it was in Japan, but they still have a number of cards to play - including price cuts - and I think it would be a mistake to paint the current situation as some kind of terminal decline.

 

[gkryhewy]

With all due respect, aren't you just indulging in hyperbole here, Dragona? Nintendo's position is certainly not as strong as it was in Japan, but they still have a number of cards to play - including price cuts - and I think it would be a mistake to paint the current situation as some kind of terminal decline.

There was a recent MC thread line of reasoning that I actually found to be fairly prescient along these lines: the idea was that Japan has one dominant market leader each gen, and this gen the Wii is losing to the DS. In other words, it's a mistake to think of the home and portable markets separately.

Certainly, though, there are cards to be played that can and will move more Wii units week-to-week in Japan, as you say.

 

[jay]

With all due respect, aren't you just indulging in hyperbole here, Dragona? Nintendo's position is certainly not as strong as it was in Japan, but they still have a number of cards to play - including price cuts - and I think it would be a mistake to paint the current situation as some kind of terminal decline.

Saying Nintendo is doomed is not hyperbole. It is a fact that the company frequently loses millions of dollars year to year because of their games division and all signs point to the continuation of this trend.

 

[dragonfart28]

Saying Nintendo is doomed is not hyperbole. It is a fact that the company frequently loses millions of dollars year to year because of their games division and all signs point to the continuation of this trend.

wat?

 

[Jonnyram]

Saying Nintendo is doomed is not hyperbole. It is a fact that the company frequently loses millions of dollars year to year because of their games division and all signs point to the continuation of this trend.

Nintendo is the only game hardware manufacturer currently making a profit. Eff why aye.

 

[botticus]

Saying Nintendo is doomed is not hyperbole. It is a fact that the company frequently loses millions of dollars year to year because of their games division and all signs point to the continuation of this trend.

Too subtle.

 

[birdchili]

even without a lot of third party investment, i think nintendo would have done a lot better with wii if they would have released and epic first party new ip that really targeted the ps2 base in japan early in the system's life. i'm inclined to think this should have been an rpg, but it wouldn't have necessarily had to be - it should have been something that really leveraged the controller too (probably the pointer).

they split their resources between the nintendo-ip crowd and the new audience, but neglected the bulk of last gens game-buyers.

 

[markatisu]

Saying Nintendo is doomed is not hyperbole. It is a fact that the company frequently loses millions of dollars year to year because of their games division and all signs point to the continuation of this trend.

That is technically true but they are not in the red which in the end is all that matters, especially when compared with their competitors who bleed red.

Plus the DS I think more than makes up for lost Wii sales, they will still be down YoY but to call the situation dire or make claims as if it was the Titanic is a bit much and severely overstating the reality.

If the Wii is the Titanic then the PS3 must be the Hidenburg

 

[jay]

Too subtle.

Apparently.

 

[HK-47]

That is technically true but they are not in the red which in the end is all that matters, especially when compared with their competitors who bleed red.

Plus the DS I think more than makes up for lost Wii sales, they will still be down YoY but to call the situation dire or make claims as if it was the Titanic is a bit much and severely overstating the reality.

If the Wii is the Titanic then the PS3 must be the Hidenburg

More people died on the Titanic.

Either way, this "well Sony and MS are sucking more" bit doesnt change the fact that Nintendo is doing a shitty job.

 

[gkryhewy]

That is technically true

lol

 

[Pureauthor]

Apparently.

Poe's Law in action.

Or... something.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I'm talking about Japan. The US, while slipping slightly is still pounding the competition easily. The US and EU situations can easily be reversed. Japan, however, is lost.

Maybe you just mean "Lost to themselves with DS." or "Lost to Wii's potential in an alternate universe.", but at this point its pretty irreversibly ahead of X360 and PS3, and would have to start flopping like a fish now for PSP to pull away.

 

[markatisu]

More people died on the Titanic.

Either way, this "well Sony and MS are sucking more" bit doesnt change the fact that Nintendo is doing a shitty job.

And nobody is saying (or should be saying) they are not, I think there is a real disconnect on GAF in regards to Nintendo though. They have missed opportunities, Charlequin writes a thesis almost daily regarding this fact. But the Wii is doomed posts are just retarded, it is what it is and Nintendo doing a shitty job does not also remove the fact that home consoles are shit when it comes to sales.

 

[freddy]

Either way, this "well Sony and MS are sucking more" bit doesnt change the fact that Nintendo is doing a shitty job.

I don't think that's true at all. In fact its quite relevant. It's the best performing home console in Japan to date. If it is performing shitty compared to consoles in the PS2 generation(is it really?) or any other generation that is irrelevant because it is performing the best under the current conditions. If Japanese gamers prefer to do their gaming on the go now then no amount of moneyhatting or magic wave wanding will convince Japanese gamers to sit on their arse again.

The realities have changed. You can only win the race your in and as far as home gaming is concerned they are winning that race. The fact that the most successful console(DS) of the overall gaming market also belongs to them is probably why they're not worrying as much as a lot of people in this thread are.

 

[Pureauthor]

I don't think that's true at all. In fact its quite relevant. It's the best performing home console in Japan to date. If it is performing shitty compared to consoles in the PS2 generation(is it really?) or any other generation that is irrelevant because it is performing the best under the current conditions. If Japanese gamers prefer to do their gaming on the go now then no amount of moneyhatting or magic wave wanding will convince Japanese gamers to sit on their arse again.

The bolded line is misleading. The Wii was the most successful home system ever. That it can still be called that is because of the sheer scale of its success early on. Currently, however, it is anemic, and therefore it is a current problem.

Also, as others have ponited out, the Wii and the DS didn't have much problem tagteaming the charts earlier on in their lifespans. The Wii's decline can't simply be attributed to 'DS wins lol'.

 

[freddy]

I meant of the current players.

Also no It can't be attributed to lol Ds wins but it can be attributed to more and more people as time goes on preferring portable gaming.

Early on they had a lot of hometitles that were easy to pick up and play and enjoy without a lot of time invested. That has changed somewhat lately and picking up more games that require lengthy sessions in front of the TV or moneyhatting hardcore efforts is not the answer.

 

[Somnid]

Classic moving the goal posts. But the kind of software Nintendo needs to move more systems is the kind of software the same characters would bitch about.

 

[donny2112]

And yet, Sony never lost support. Why would third parties change now, when Nintendo is finally looking weaker?

I think you're confused. The discussion was about third-party support for next generation, not now. Do you think that third-parties will give the same or less support to a Wii 2 from launch than they did to the Wii?

Honestly, the only really huge 3rd party franchise that keeps being developed for PS3 after 2006-2007 seems to be Yakuza.

aka. GameCube Mikami redux. He's going to develop for the system because he wants to despite knowing that there could be more lucrative financial fields elsewhere. For the record, I'm fine with that.

Japan, however, is lost.

What could've been for Wii in Japan is lost. I still think it's possible for it to have a turnaround and end up in the 15m LTD range by the time the next system comes out. Nintendo took about a year off, but it seems like they have good potential for the next 6-9 months.

October - Wii Fit+
November - NSMBWii
Spring/early Summer - SMG2 (This is what I expect, based on 1) Nintendo saying they wanted to show next year's of releases at E3 and 2) Miyamoto saying they probably could've had it ready this Fall, if they wanted to)

There'll be other small/mid stuff released in 1H 2010 by Nintendo in there, too. I still don't understand why we don't have Mario Party 9/10, Wario Ware: Balanced, or another Paper Mario game announced, though.

 

[m.i.s.]

How much is the Wii in Japan currently?

 

[charlequin]

Why not? Wii third party software has already outsold GameCube third party software and one of the two is still increasing.

And yet getting anyone to develop a game for it is still like pulling teeth.

If the Wii is actually selling hardware and software well right now, in the present, and people are unwilling to develop for it, why would launching a new system (i.e. a new reset of the board that could potentially fail to carry over the Wii's success) suddenly change their minds?

So can the resurgence of the PSP be put down solely to the popularity Monster Hunter?

"Solely" is a pretty strong word here, so I want to break down my response a little.

Is MH "solely" responsible as in the resurgence wouldn't have happened without it? I think this would be accurate, yes: without this game to break open the teenage boy market and make clear the value of local multi on PSP, the system would not have had a second wind no matter what other games were released for it.

Is MH the only game that helped to increase hardware sales for the PSP and sustain its bump during the period it was selling well? No, I don't think so. A variety of other 3rd party titles have succeeded on the system since, with a number of them outperforming (pre-MH3) all console third-party titles. I think SE and Sega, especially, identified the new market that had opened up here and strengthened it with new titles that directly appealed to that market.

The only release that matters for PSP is Monster Hunter, as hardware sales prove.

I'm not sure I buy that as a flat conclusion. JJS' charts show several higher (much higher, in the case of P*P) charting PSP games from the equivalent period last year. I don't think it's indefensible to read that as a more desirable overall lineup for that period.

 

[charlequin]

Classic moving the goal posts.

I think your particular brand of fanboyish "whatever Nintendo is currently doing is right" argumentation that has cleanly switched from bragging about "rising to heaven" directly into spinning anemic sales into somehow "not a problem" is a much clearer example of goalpost-moving, actually.

I still don't understand why we don't have Mario Party 9/10, Wario Ware: Balanced, or another Paper Mario game announced, though.

Because... apparently Nintendo doesn't have any development teams now? :lol I really wanted to believe your "backed-up titles waiting for M+!" theory simply because I can't explain why it feels like Nintendo has had almost zero significant game output for over a year.

 

[Sadist]

And yet getting anyone to develop a game for it is still like pulling teeth.

If the Wii is actually selling hardware and software well right now, in the present, and people are unwilling to develop for it, why would launching a new system (i.e. a new reset of the board that could potentially fail to carry over the Wii's success) suddenly change their minds?

Pachter-Mode activated: If the Wii Plus is a console capable of HD, developers will think about porting 360/PS3 titles to the console. And with the upcoming Natal and PS3 wands, this would be a great move to make.

In all seriousness, I kind of believe if the next-generation doesn't make a huge graphical leap and the new Nintendo console would be just as powerfull as it's competitors, it would have more multiplatform releases. Don't know how much, but more than the Wii currently has anyway.

 

[poppabk]

Because... apparently Nintendo doesn't have any development teams now? :lol I really wanted to believe your "backed-up titles waiting for M+!" theory simply because I can't explain why it feels like Nintendo has had almost zero significant game output for over a year.

Wii sports resort was a significant release though. It feels like Nintendo have actually been putting in the effort with 3rd parties to a certain extent, hence we had motion plus ready titles out before WSR in the west. Strangely it feels like the japanese market and the US market are diverging somewhat, the US is moving rapidly towards more motion controls, whereas the japanese market seems to be undergoing a shift towards traditional controls after the success (or excellently selling failure) of MH3. The announcement that NMH2, which seemed like an ideal candidate for M+, is in fact not going to support M+ but is going to support classic controller, kinda bears this out.

 

[freddy]

I think your particular brand of fanboyish "whatever Nintendo is currently doing is right" argumentation that has cleanly switched from bragging about "rising to heaven" directly into spinning anemic sales into somehow "not a problem" is a much clearer example of goalpost-moving, actually.

Perhaps but I think he may be right on the type of software required to reinvigorate sales on home consoles.

Nintendo was very successful early on with titles that don't appeal to many on this board. I think that a lot of software developers have trouble replicating games of this nature including Nintendo. The games they had last year as heavy hitters were Animal Crossing and Wii Music, both of those games require a heavy time investment to get the most out of them. Would there be any point moneyhatting 3rd parties if those 3rd parties are incapable of producing what is required? Even Nintendo struggles.

It's easy to say they should have done this and should have done that, but I don't believe having Metal Gear Solid or mainline Final Fantasy would have seen them any better off.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Alright HERE WE GO

With all due respect, aren't you just indulging in hyperbole here, Dragona? Nintendo's position is certainly not as strong as it was in Japan, but they still have a number of cards to play - including price cuts - and I think it would be a mistake to paint the current situation as some kind of terminal decline.

The Wii has been pulling dismal numbers for over a year now (barring MH3 bump). The system is now doing what was considered abysmal numbers for PS3. Software isn't selling, outside of a few key areas.

Maybe you just mean "Lost to themselves with DS." or "Lost to Wii's potential in an alternate universe.", but at this point its pretty irreversibly ahead of X360 and PS3, and would have to start flopping like a fish now for PSP to pull away.

No, they're losing in general. Vesperia is a great example here. First day sales that can only be compared to the PS2. Clearly, people want PS3 software. Traditional 3rd party type software anyway.

What could've been for Wii in Japan is lost. I still think it's possible for it to have a turnaround and end up in the 15m LTD range by the time the next system comes out. Nintendo took about a year off, but it seems like they have good potential for the next 6-9 months.

Well, that's what I've been meaning. In the grand scheme of LTD-things, the Wii is a resounding success. But the software sales and hardware sales have fallen through the floor. The PS3 is showing something of a revival, at least in terms of certain genres, and 3rd parties are going to continue giving PS3 games over the Wii. (Now DS over everything else still exists, I'm not arguing that.)

My essential point is that Nintendo completely blew it for the Wii in Japan. Completely and utterly.

 

[poppabk]

Pachter-Mode activated: If the Wii Plus is a console capable of HD, developers will think about porting 360/PS3 titles to the console. And with the upcoming Natal and PS3 wands, this would be a great move to make.

The HD is a red herring though. If the Wii was capable of running the same engines as the HD consoles, but only at SD resolutions, then that would be all it would need to get the ports, the resolution is irrelevant. A WiiHD that is capable of only Wii level games but in HD won't see any more ports than it currently gets.

 

[Sadist]

Because... apparently Nintendo doesn't have any development teams now? :lol I really wanted to believe your "backed-up titles waiting for M+!" theory simply because I can't explain why it feels like Nintendo has had almost zero significant game output for over a year.

I'll never understand Nintendo for this either: if you take away the NPC! releases Mario Tennis, DK JB, Pikmin, (EU & US) and Pikmin 2, (EU, JPN) they released only four titles this year of which only one is a title from EAD: Wii Sports Resort.

As for the rest, only Punch-Out!! released world wide, while ExciteBots (US) and Another Code R (JPN & EU) were given to certain regions. So weird.

 

[freddy]

Software isn't selling, outside of a few key areas.



Clearly, people want PS3 software. Traditional 3rd party type software anyway.



But the software sales and hardware sales have fallen through the floor.

Ok is this what people really want? PS3 has been getting plenty and I don't see them lighting up the software or hardware charts the last 3 years. If PS3 type games are the answer then why hasn't it worked for the PS3?

 

[botticus]

I'll never understand Nintendo for this either: if you take away the NPC! releases Mario Tennis, DK JB, Pikmin, (EU & US) and Pikmin 2, (EU, JPN) they released only four titles this year of which only one is a title from EAD: Wii Sports Resort.

As for the rest, only Punch-Out!! released world wide, while ExciteBots (US) and Another Code R (JPN & EU) were given to certain regions. So weird.

I'd hate to see the results if they hadn't decided to shift development towards the Wii from the DS a while back.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Ok is this what people really want? PS3 has been getting plenty and I don't see them lighting up the software or hardware charts the last 3 years. If PS3 type games are the answer then why hasn't it worked for the PS3?

Games from established franchises have been selling well on PS3. Look at the Vesperia numbers again, especially. Year old port. 147k day one.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Ok is this what people really want? PS3 has been getting plenty and I don't see them lighting up the software or hardware charts the last 3 years. If PS3 type games are the answer then why hasn't it worked for the PS3?

Recent price cut should help. PS3 has been the most expensive for a long time prior to price drop. Not enough HW out there to be pulling Wii's best selling game-like numbers.

 

[freddy]

Games from established franchises have been selling well on PS3. Look at the Vesperia numbers again, especially. Year old port. 147k day one.

On the back of a price cut.
Games from established franchises have been selling well but not enough to stop sub 10k sales of the system that has only sold 2-3 million units.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

On the back of a price cut.
Games from established franchises have been selling well but not enough to stop sub 10k sales of the system that has only sold 2-3 million units.

Every major third party entry from a recognised franchise has sold well on PS3. Even before the price cut and introduction of the Slim.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

On the back of a price cut.
Games from established franchises have been selling well but not enough to stop sub 10k sales of the system that has only sold 2-3 million units.

Let's wait a little bit now that the price drop/redesign has happened to make claims like that. SW should be coming in decently and we know FF13 speaks for itself. A slight revival would be great for PS3 business. The timing was right for them as the Wii has been dry in terms of relevant games outside of MH.

Every major third party entry from a recognised franchise has sold well on PS3. Even before the price cut and introduction of the Slim.

The established 3rd parties have done well which is why I was always baffled by the lack of Star Ocean PS3 when the 360 version was announced.

 

[RJT]

My essential point is that Nintendo completely blew it for the Wii in Japan. Completely and utterly.

True. But Nintendo is still within comeback range (price drop and M+ bundle being the most important factor for it).

I can't help but think PS3 Slim and the Wand will dethrone the Wii in 2010, though (like Dragona said, not LTD obviously, but annual hardware and software sales). If Nintendo does nothing, of course...

 

[Chris1964]

I'm not sure I buy that as a flat conclusion. JJS' charts show several higher (much higher, in the case of P*P) charting PSP games from the equivalent period last year. I don't think it's indefensible to read that as a more desirable overall lineup for that period.

You are mixing things. Joshua doesn't compare equivalent periods. He compares the last 6 months of 2008 to the last 6 months of this year (Mar-Sep). If you wanna compare the equivalent periods of 2008 and 2009 (Jan-Sep) you'll be surprised by the rise in number of released PSP games then and now. But with one difference. 2008 had Monster Hunter Freedom Unite which drove the hardware.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

True. But Nintendo is still within comeback range (price drop and M+ bundle being the most important factor for it).

I can't help but think PS3 Slim and the Wand will dethrone the Wii in 2010, though (like Dragona said, not LTD obviously, but annual hardware and software sales). If Nintendo does nothing, of course...

I don't think it's gonna run away but Nintendo has been sitting busy counting their millions and Japan has crumbled on them (not the DS of course). I don't see any reason why Sony can't take some of the demo away from Wii with the incoming Wand.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

With the way all three hardware makers have been price gouging on accesories i shudder to think how much the wand + camera will cost. A complete Wii controller(Remote/M+/Nunchuck) costs $80. They're gonna need some shit hot software for that.

 

[Jokeropia]

Software isn't selling, outside of a few key areas.

During the last 12 months, only the DS has sold more software than Wii in Japan.

 

[d+pad]

Software isn't selling, outside of a few key areas.

Isn't this the case for all three consoles, though? It's not like ps3 and 360 titles appear in the top 10 with any more regularity than Wii titles.

Also, aside from WSR and MH3, exactly which Wii titles should be lighting up the software charts these days? I mean that honestly. As far as I can remember, those two titles are the most significant Wii releases in some time. NOJ hasn't released shit in some time, and neither has anyone else. Sure, there have been some niche releases (the wonderful Little King's Story ... sob ...), but other than those, what is there?

Don't get me wrong, I'm not defending Nintendo at all. I just find this "Wii is the Titanic" - even when compared to complete and utter turds like the PS3 and 360 - to be a bit melodramatic.

Sadly, I think all Nintendo cares about at this point is that the DS is making shitloads of money, as are DS and Wii games. They're probably thinking, 'So, the Wii hardware isn't selling as well as it could - we're still selling plenty of DSes and DSis and DS and Wii games!"

Sigh...

 

[d+pad]

It will be interesting to see if all of this hyperbole is for nothing come the end of the year - after the Wii's price has dropped and Wii Fit+ and NSMB Wii have been released.

It certainly wouldn't be the first time - after all, a lot of folks here love to scream "the sky is falling" before realizing it's just a bit of rain

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

And yet getting anyone to develop a game for it is still like pulling teeth.

If the Wii is actually selling hardware and software well right now, in the present, and people are unwilling to develop for it, why would launching a new system (i.e. a new reset of the board that could potentially fail to carry over the Wii's success) suddenly change their minds?

Because everyone tends to assume the success will carry over until proven otherwise? A reason there's a lack of Wii development now is that all the PS2 developers put their chips on PS3 when they were expecting similar success, and it's harder to change direction mid-generation. It seems doubtful everyone will make the same assumptions about PS4.

 

[markatisu]

During the last 12 months, only the DS has sold more software than Wii in Japan.

shhh, you are making sense

 

[Dragona Akehi]

It will be interesting to see if all of this hyperbole is for nothing come the end of the year - after the Wii's price has dropped and Wii Fit+ and NSMB Wii have been released.

It certainly wouldn't be the first time - after all, a lot of folks here love to scream "the sky is falling" before realizing it's just a bit of rain

I really wouldn't call abysmal hardware sales for over a year to be a "little bit of rain".

 

[freddy]

Let's wait a little bit now that the price drop/redesign has happened to make claims like that. SW should be coming in decently and we know FF13 speaks for itself. A slight revival would be great for PS3 business. The timing was right for them as the Wii has been dry in terms of relevant games outside of MH.

Every major third party entry from a recognised franchise has sold well on PS3. Even before the price cut and introduction of the Slim.

I think both the Wii and PS3 would benefit from a little of either side. PS3 needs more casual titles. Without them so far consoles sales have been woeful. Wii could do with more traditional titles that would flesh out their library and maintain momentum during dry spells. Both needed a price cut which one has already.

However the early drivers of the Wii were titles like Wii Sports, Mario Kart and Wii Fit which were accessible and easy to pick up and play and just as easy to put down when you didn't want to play and led the console to massively successful sales. They don't require a huge time investment. I think if consoles want to become relevant again in Japan then more effort is needed to produce more games like this that fit into the current lifestyles of the average Japanese gamer.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

You're thinking about this the wrong way Dragona.

The Wii is getting its ass kicked ---by the DS. In fact, it seems every platform in Japan, whether handheld or console, is suffering from the DS' dominance.

I don't see how you can point to one game on the PS3 after a monster price drop and say that gamers are demanding The PS3/HD gaming.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

You're thinking about this the wrong way Dragona.

The Wii is getting its ass kicked ---by the DS. In fact, it seems every platform in Japan, whether handheld or console, is suffering from the DS' dominance.

I don't see how you can point to one game on the PS3 after a monster price drop and say that gamers are demanding The PS3/HD gaming.

I'm saying that Nintendo blew it with the Wii. I'm saying that clearly the PS3 is doing something right now and it's giving dividends. That major third party offerings on the PS3 have always sold well (they have). That Nintendo has had no interest in gaining that support for the Wii outside of very few exceptions which are too little too late (MH3 and DQX).

The Wii is a failure in that it should be doing triple the amount it has been for the past year. That it should have a significantly better line up. That it cannot or will not get 3rd parties on board.

It's like a star student that did his first term with a 95% average and decided to skip the entire second half of the course because he'll still come out with a 60.

When you go from selling 60-70k a week to 15k you're doing it wrong.

Nintendo completely blew it for the Wii in Japan.

 

[dragonfart28]

Nintendo's just holding on to their pricepoint as long as they can. Once it drops, they will regain that same dominance they did at the beginning of their cycle. Then they will leech that pricepoint out as long as they can.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Nintendo's just holding on to their pricepoint as long as they can. Once it drops, they will regain that same dominance they did at the beginning of their cycle. Then they will leech that pricepoint out as long as they can.

Yes but what about the games?

/crickets


And don't be so sure this Sony (and to a lesser extent, MSFT) price cut/redesign won't have an impact on the console market. Especially when Sony has a decent software stream powered by many 3rd party games not even on the Wii. This is before FF13 and GT5 enter the picture as well.