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[Daschysta]

Pikmin 3 moved 22k from 8k consoles the previous week in July of last year. Now somehow Mario Kart, a far, far bigger deal then Pikmin or even 3D Mario is somehow going to push less than 20k? Wii U will be over 30k easily, 40k is very doable too. Anyone from J gaf have any anecdotal reports regarding buzz around the game and opinions on whether it will move hardware along with software?

 

[AniHawk]

 

[BlackJace]

I'd peg Wii U anywhere from 25-32k. Less than 20k would be disappointing.

 

[test_account]

No my point was that the reason the PS3 remained relevant and sold as much as it did was because of those mid tier and niche games, not the AAA games that really didn't sell that much. Large budget games existed on it but it wouldn't anywhere remotely successful without the mid tier support.

Which is why I find the argument AAA games will save the PS4 ring kind of false if AAA games didn't save the PS3 precisely why would they sell the PS4.

The only thing I can really see saving the PS4 is Japanese mid tier support, it's what "saved" the Vita, the main reason PS3 was successful as it was in Japan and in many ways what kept the PSP alive until MH came along.

Ah ok, i see. Yeah, i fully agree with that. A few big games in themself wont do much in the long run. Concistent support is very important to keep momentum. Its a question about how much that the bigger games will do to "inspire" other developers/publishers to bet on a system.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Ps3 had 2 games over 1 millons but it also have 22 games sold over 500k and less then 1 million.
Vita had 0 game over 1 millions and only one game over 500k.

ah, you are comparing a 8 years system with a 2 and a half one, that's great way to make a comparison isn't it ?

when PS3 was at 2,8mln (beginning of 2009) the situation was :

MGS4 - 700k
Minna no Golf 5 - 410k
Dynasty Warrior 5 - 370k
Gundam Musou - 317k
WE2008 - 316k
DMC4 - 310k
WE2009 - 300k
Yakuza Kenzan - 270k

so only 2 (two) titles sold more than GE2 on Vita (387k w/o digital sales)


that's a comparison, FYI

All what Vita get this year are sequel that sold less then the previous games

the same that happened with PS3 (FF, GT, WE, DW, MnG, Gundam games sold more than the previous installment on PS2)

 

[Daschysta]

No my point was that the reason the PS3 remained relevant and sold as much as it did was because of those mid tier and niche games, not the AAA games that really didn't sell that much. Large budget games existed on it but it wouldn't anywhere remotely successful without the mid tier support.

Which is why I find the argument AAA games will save the PS4 ring kind of false if AAA games didn't save the PS3 precisely why would they sell the PS4.

The only thing I can really see saving the PS4 is Japanese mid tier support, it's what "saved" the Vita, the main reason PS3 was successful as it was in Japan and in many ways what kept the PSP alive until MH came along.

I wouldn't say Vita is saved, but yeah PS3 was all about mid tier games sustaining it. Only FF and RE5 really sold to the extent that "big" games in Japan have dkne in the past, and even then neither really reached the salez heights of even the 2nd tier stuff for Wii, PS2, DS/3DS or PS1.

PS4's problem is that development is significantly more expensive which is damming since mid tier stuff isn't expected to have ridiculous production values by their customers, it won't have a system seller in Japan for what seems like an eternity to create a precedent for healthy hardware or software sales, Gamers are continuing to migrate to mobile, and handheld devices like 3ds appear to be the last compromise between the portability factor, a large enough install base to sell without compromising complexity of input and without devaluing the price.

 

[metalslimer]

Pikmin 3 moved 22k from 8k consoles the previous week in July of last year. Now somehow Mario Kart, a far, far bigger deal then Pikmin or even 3D Mario is somehow going to push less than 20k? Wii U will be over 30k easily, 40k is very doable too. Anyone from J gaf have any anecdotal reports regarding buzz around the game and opinions on whether it will move hardware along with software?

That's the same kind of false analogy that led people to believe 3D World would do significantly better first week sales than it did. First of all Mario Kart is all about legs and there is not a guarantee that a large portion of the fanbase doesn't already own the system.

Also, the 3DS better have a new model because Pokemon, Smash, and MH will not be enough to get close to that projected shipment.

 

[michaelius]

I'm wondering if that's a viable strategy for Nintendo in the long-term; since the 3DS became a de facto upgrade path from *both* the PSP and DS, leaving the Vita by the wayside, in part due to the Monster Hunter exclusivity deal, making some smart publishing deals could perhaps have a similar effect - on a smaller scale - making the Wii U the de facto upgrade path from the PS3.

My gut says that FF15 is too big a name for PS4 (and presumably won't have a Wii U version!) for that to work, but I think putting in the work to secure Japanese developers who *do* want to stick with consoles and are perhaps a bit too small-scale for PS4 development could be a reasonable move.

Considering we have Idea Factory (or was that CH) and Grashopper making PS4 games who would be those too small developers ?

 

[small44]

ah, you are comparing a 8 years system with a 2 and a half one, that's great way to make a comparison isn't it ?

when PS3 was at 2,8mln (beginning of 2009) the situation was :

MGS4 - 700k
Minna no Golf 5 - 410k
Dynasty Warrior 5 - 370k
Gundam Musou - 317k
WE2008 - 316k
DMC4 - 310k
WE2009 - 300k
Yakuza Kenzan - 270k

so only 2 (two) titles sold more than GE2 on Vita (387k w/o digital sales)


that's a comparison, FYI







the same that happened with PS3 (FF, GT, WE, DW, MnG, Gundam games sold more than the previous installment on PS2)

Do you think after 6 years Vita will have any 1 millions sellers and more title with 500k+ sales i really doubt Monster Hunter is the only game with the chance to reach 1 million.

 

[sörine]

Saying the mid tier saved PS3 is a little inaccurate though. Mid tier games like Winning Eleven or Musuo used to be million sellers, what happened is PS3 brought down these brands from top to mid tier.

 

[AniHawk]

while we're all making guesses for mario kart 8, i will go with 18k, with 15k on the low end and 22k on the high end.

1. i don't think week one sales will see a tremendous boost without the bundle the rest of the world is getting
2. mario kart 8 is about legs
3. some of the people who would have bought systems next week bought systems this week, and probably the week before
4. i think we're all overestimating the ceiling consoles have now

 

[Longsword]

but where are they? what is the PS4 2014 lineup for Japan even

Put yourself in the shoes of a Japanese investor or a publisher. Would YOU put your own money in this space, seeing these sales? When you see P&D, Monster Stike, Brave Frontier et all making million+ each day, every day, week after week, month after month? Or even countless mid-tier mobile games making 1M+ a month on relatively small investment?

Where would you put your money?

Platform holders need to fix this. Sony needs to bring its A-game (pun intended) to Japan if they don't want see this gen slide into irrelevancy at home front.

 

[Wynnebeck]

Do you think after 6 years Vita will have any 1 millions sellers and more title with 500k+ sales i really doubt Monster Hunter is the only game with the chance to reach 1 million.

Predicting what will happen in the next 3.5 years? Can I get next week's lottery numbers too?

 

[Principate]

That's the same kind of false analogy that led people to believe 3D World would do significantly better first week sales than it did. First of all Mario Kart is all about legs and there is not a guarantee that a large portion of the fanbase doesn't already own the system.

Also, the 3DS better have a new model because Pokemon, Smash, and MH will not be enough to get close to that projected shipment.

TBF It doesn't really need a large proportion of it's fan base not be on the system even if just 30k wasn't and they bought the system for it you'd see a large hardware bump.

I see your point however. But I will point out there's a high chance 3D world contributed to the wii u's sales that holiday which contributed to disproportional growth. The argument is that since Mario Kart is releasing no where near any holidays, it's hardware growth would be more front loaded.

Would be interested to see some statistics though.

 

[Aostia]

That's the same kind of false analogy that led people to believe 3D World would do significantly better first week sales than it did. First of all Mario Kart is all about legs and there is not a guarantee that a large portion of the fanbase doesn't already own the system.

Also, the 3DS better have a new model because Pokemon, Smash, and MH will not be enough to get close to that projected shipment.

Mario3DWorld had a debut very similar to Pikmin, though. Aren't we looking for a higher debut for MK8? Just asking, but I've read also the predictions in the other thread and generally it seemed so. And I don't get why Pikmin lovers wouldn't have been already on Wii U while MK8 should be, if MK8 has a bigger fanbase.
I'm not saying that we'll see 100k Wii U sales next week, but if Pikmin moved from 8k to 22k it's not that crazy to imagine something similar for MK (I quoted a post that imagined 15k at best for Wii U hw numbers, before)

 

[schuelma]

I expect more than 20k for Wii U next week, but I also expect a bigger first week for MK8 than many (300k+).

 

[Daschysta]

ah, you are comparing a 8 years system with a 2 and a half one, that's great way to make a comparison isn't it ?

when PS3 was at 2,8mln (beginning of 2009) the situation was :

MGS4 - 700k
Minna no Golf 5 - 410k
Dynasty Warrior 5 - 370k
Gundam Musou - 317k
WE2008 - 316k
DMC4 - 310k
WE2009 - 300k
Yakuza Kenzan - 270k

so only 2 (two) titles sold more than GE2 on Vita (387k w/o digital sales)


that's a comparison, FYI







the same that happened with PS3 (FF, GT, WE, DW, MnG, Gundam games sold more than the previous installment on PS2)

Even so, what about after god eater, if I'm not mistaken it's a bunch of software clustered between 250k and 200k, a significant difference at that level of HW sales. Granted Wii wasn't really competing fir the same type of titles that PS3 was generally, as the 3DS does vs. Vita, but the difference is still there. Ps3 also turned around pretty drastically from that point, while Vita isn't really expecting any huge games on the horizon. Monster Hunter isn't walking through that door.

 

[AdanVC]

OMG. So the Mario Kart 8 hype is real after all! Wii U above PS4... And not even Infamous SS could make a boost in sales. That was expected, MK8 has been heavily marketed on Japan and it's been #1 on Amazon.jp since forever.

:')

Edit: Yes, I know this are still pretty low numbers overall, but an improvement is an improvement and it should be appreciated even if it's by literally two more extra consoles sold.

 

[JoeM86]

Pikmin 3 moved 22k from 8k consoles the previous week in July of last year. Now somehow Mario Kart, a far, far bigger deal then Pikmin or even 3D Mario is somehow going to push less than 20k? Wii U will be over 30k easily, 40k is very doable too. Anyone from J gaf have any anecdotal reports regarding buzz around the game and opinions on whether it will move hardware along with software?

Yeah, but there was a heat wave on Pikmin 3 release... I'll get my coat.

I honestly don't see that big a jump in sales, especially as there are no Mario Kart 8 bundles in Japan.

 

[Principate]

Interested to note the wii u console is #26 on Amazon jp right now (obviously highest console or handheld). Wonder it was before.

 

[small44]

Predicting what will happen in the next 3.5 years? Can I get next week's lottery numbers too?

3rd party dosn't seem to be interested in Vita like they was interested by PSP.

 

[KillerMan91]

That 12 million shipment forecast for 3DS is starting to look more and more like fantasy.

 

[Principate]

That 12 million shipment forecast for 3DS is starting to look more and more like fantasy.

Yeah I wonder why Nintendo hasn't bothered to release the 2DS. Doesn't make much sense. It's not has if the small bump they'll get from releasing at Christmas or whatever would offset the fat the 3DS is significantly down year on year. The sooner they release that thing the better if for nothing else but to increase the week baseline.

 

[sphinx]

Can you guys even think of the bloodbath when the Xbos One arrives?

we are talking about a "big" contender that could reach 3-digit figures within its first 15 weeks in the market.

I wouldn't bother if I were MS, quite frankly.

Japan isn't Tier-2 country for them,, it's a no-tier country, it's just not there.

 

[mclem]

2. mario kart 8 is about legs

I think you'll find it's about wheels.

 

[mclem]

Considering we have Idea Factory (or was that CH) and Grashopper making PS4 games who would be those too small developers ?

Well, exactly people like that! I'm very curious how successful they'll be in that environment, because I don't think it's the right field for them to be aiming for.

I might be entirely wrong, of course.

 

[Wynnebeck]

OMG. So the Mario Kart 8 hype is real after all! Wii U above PS4... And not even Infamous SS could make a boost in sales. That was expected, MK8 has been heavily marketed on Japan and it's been #1 on Amazon.jp since forever.

:')

Lol the hype to see MK8 take Japan by storm is more real than the actual hype to buy Wii Us.

 

[Snakeyes]

Can you guys even think of the bloodbath when the Xbos One arrives?

we are talking about a "big" contender that could reach 3-digit figures within its first 15 weeks in the market.

I wouldn't bother if I were MS, quite frankly.

Japan isn't Tier-2 country for them,, it's a no-tier country, it's just not there.

The Xbox One's release in Japan is a token gesture towards Japanese third party developers more than anything else. It's Microsoft saying "Hey guys, we still care about Japan so please make multiplats for our platform, 'kay?"

 

[Principate]

Lol the hype to see MK8 take Japan by storm is more real than the actual hype to buy Wii Us.

Correction more than the hype to buy any consoles in Japan.

 

[KillerMan91]

Yeah I wonder why Nintendo hasn't bothered to release the 2DS. Doesn't make much sense. It's not has if the small bump they'll get from releasing at Christmas or whatever would offset the fat the 3DS is significantly down year on year. The sooner they release that thing the better if for nothing else but to increase the week baseline.

I don't know if 2DS will help 3DS that much in Japan. It was mainly designed for western market and even here it didn't have the impact Nintendo hoped it would (3DS is down yoy). It's not exactly portable either and that could reduce its appeal in Japan. Well I guess the cheaper price could somewhat improve the baseline.

 

[Fularu]

the same that happened with PS3 (FF, GT, WE, DW, MnG, Gundam games sold more than the previous installment on PS2)

Unless I'm misunderstanding you, AFAIK all those franchises went down on PS3 compared to their PS2 numbers. Some of them significantly so.

 

[fredrancour]

Correction more than the hype to buy any consoles in Japan.

Gaf has enough members that this may actually literally be true on a number-of-hyped-people basis.

 

[Principate]

The Xbox One's release in Japan is a token gesture towards Japanese third party developers more than anything else.

That and the fact Microsoft has a surprising amount of Japanese developers still "loyal" to them after the last generation. I mean what it's getting close to or more Japanese games than the PS4 has right now supposedly (which is all kinds of sad).

I guess Microsoft treated them well because their games certainly didn't sell.

 

[Anth0ny]

33k Wii Us next week. At least.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

This is the only reaction I can have.

 

[Road]

ah, you are comparing a 8 years system with a 2 and a half one, that's great way to make a comparison isn't it ?

when PS3 was at 2,8mln (beginning of 2009) the situation was :

MGS4 - 700k
Minna no Golf 5 - 410k
Dynasty Warrior 5 - 370k
Gundam Musou - 317k
WE2008 - 316k
DMC4 - 310k
WE2009 - 300k
Yakuza Kenzan - 270k

so only 2 (two) titles sold more than GE2 on Vita (387k w/o digital sales)


that's a comparison, FYI

the same that happened with PS3 (FF, GT, WE, DW, MnG, Gundam games sold more than the previous installment on PS2)

Disingenuous.

You're missing a couple games. Here are the top selling PS3 games when it was as old as the Vita is today:

[PS3] Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (Konami) {2008-06-12} - 699,770
[PS3] Yakuza 3 (SEGA) {2009-02-26} - 466,164
[PS3] Resident Evil 5 (Capcom) {2009-03-05} - 454,367
[PS3] Hot Shots Golf: Out of Bounds (SCE) {2007-07-26} - 409,840
[PS3] Dynasty Warriors 6 (Koei) {2007-11-11} - 371,443
[PS3] Pro Evolution Soccer 2009 (Konami) {2008-11-27} - 342,433
[PS3] Pro Evolution Soccer 2008 (Konami) {2007-11-22} - 316,533
[PS3] White Knight Chronicles (SCE) {2008-12-25} - 315,937
[PS3] Devil May Cry 4 (Capcom) {2008-01-31} - 310,102
[PS3] Dynasty Warriors: Gundam (Bandai Namco) {2007-03-01} - 306,114
[PS3] Gran Turismo 5: Prologue - Spec III (SCE) {2008-10-30} - 289,077
[PS3] Yakuza: Kenzan! (SEGA) {2008-03-06} - 270,438
[PS3] Dynasty Warriors: Gundam 2 (Bandai Namco) {2008-12-18} - 264,451
[PS3] Gran Turismo 5: Prologue (SCE) {2007-12-13} - 238,578
[PS3] Warriors Orochi Z (Koei) {2009-03-12} - 199,625
[PS3] Grand Theft Auto IV (Capcom) {2008-10-30} - 195,779
[PS3] Dragon Ball Z: Burst Limit (Bandai Namco) {2008-06-05} - 163,010
[PS3] Ridge Racer 7 (Bandai Namco) {2006-11-11} - 149,648
[PS3] Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire (Bandai Namco) {2006-11-11} - 146,199
[PS3] Valkyria Chronicles (SEGA) {2008-04-24} - 141,589

Vita top games:

[PSV] God Eater 2 (Bandai Namco) {2013-11-14} - 373,858
[PSV] Persona 4 Golden (Atlus) {2012-06-14} - 256,494
[PSV] Toukiden: The Age of Demons (Koei Tecmo) {2013-06-27} - 229,455
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA f (SEGA) {2012-08-30} - 214,515
[PSV] Final Fantasy X / X-2 HD Remaster Twin Pack (Square Enix) {2013-12-26} - 206,073
[PSV] Soul Sacrifice (SCE) {2013-03-07} - 190,592
[PSV] Sword Art Online: Hollow Fragment (Bandai Namco) {2014-04-24} - 188,311
[PSV] Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational (SCE) {2011-12-17} - 167,814
[PSV] Super Robot Wars Z 3rd: Jigoku Hen (Bandai Namco) {2014-04-10} - 151,117
[PSV] Senran Kagura Shinovi Versus: Shoujotachi no Shoumei (Marvelous AQL) {2013-02-28} - 145,979
[PSV] J-Stars Victory Vs (Bandai Namco) {2014-03-19} - 131,475
[PSV] Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA F 2nd (SEGA) {2014-03-27} - 127,537
[PSV] The Legend of Heroes: Sen no Kiseki (Nihon Falcom) {2013-09-26} - 119,220
[PSV] Dragon's Crown (Atlus) {2013-07-25} - 109,549
[PSV] Phantasy Star Online 2: Special Package (SEGA) {2013-02-28} - 108,343
[PSV] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 2 (Bandai Namco) {2013-03-20} - 103,757
[PSV] DanganRonpa 1-2 Reload (Spike Chunsoft) {2013-10-10} - 99,610
[PSV] Uncharted: Golden Abyss (SCE) {2011-12-17} - 98,106
[PSV] Dynasty Warriors: Gundam Reborn (Bandai Namco) {2013-12-19} - 85,890
[PSV] Gravity Rush (SCE) {2012-02-09} - 84,287


Over 500k
PS3: 1
Vita:0

Over 400k
PS3: 4
Vita: 0

Over 300k
PS3: 10
Vita: 1

Over 200k:
PS3: 14
Vita: 5

Over 100k:
PS3:27
Vita: 16

We can see it's the same situation.

 

[RalchAC]

Saying the mid tier saved PS3 is a little inaccurate though. Mid tier games like Winning Eleven or Musuo used to be million sellers, what happened is PS3 brought down these brands from top to mid tier.

Winning Eleven buried its own grave. It's been years since the last time I've heard anybody discussing if PES is better than FIFA of viceversa. The drop in quality has been quite big compared to last-last gen.

Put yourself in the shoes of a Japanese investor or a publisher. Would YOU put your own money in this space, seeing these sales? When you see P&D, Monster Stike, Brave Frontier et all making million+ each day, every day, week after week, month after month? Or even countless mid-tier mobile games making 1M+ a month on relatively small investment?

Where would you put your money?

Platform holders need to fix this. Sony needs to bring its A-game (pun intended) to Japan if they don't want see this gen slide into irrelevancy at home front.

I sure won't bet all my money in a market that could perfectly be a bubble. Diversifying your market is wise. I think GungHo had a really good idea releasing Puzzle and Dragons Z on the 3DS.

Even so, what about after god eater, if I'm not mistaken it's a bunch of software clustered between 250k and 200k, a significant difference at that level of HW sales. Granted Wii wasn't really competing fir the same type of titles that PS3 was generally, as the 3DS does vs. Vita, but the difference is still there. Ps3 also turned around pretty drastically from that point, while Vita isn't really expecting any huge games on the horizon. Monster Hunter isn't walking through that door.

Phantasy Star Nova looks like a game that could enter in that 500k tier. Outside that game there isn't much stuff to look for unless Freedom Wars, Toukiden or another (kinda) new IP takes off and becomes as big as God Eater is (or more).

Outside that, not much more that I can think of.

 

[metalslimer]

Mario3DWorld had a debut very similar to Pikmin, though. Aren't we looking for a higher debut for MK8? Just asking, but I've read also the predictions in the other thread and generally it seemed so. And I don't get why Pikmin lovers wouldn't have been already on Wii U while MK8 should be, if MK8 has a bigger fanbase.
I'm not saying that we'll see 100k Wii U sales next week, but if Pikmin moved from 8k to 22k it's not that crazy to imagine something similar for MK (I quoted a post that imagined 15k at best for Wii U hw numbers, before)

Ah yes, I definitely wasn't saying that Wii U would not break 15k. I just don't think that because this is now a big game Wii U is guranteed to shoot up. I actually think Wii U will sell over 20k, and then stay there for a few weeks instead of a large boost to 30-40k in a week.

 

[Longsword]

I sure won't be all my money in a market that could perfectly be a bubble. Diversifying your market is wise. I think GungHo had a really good idea releasing Puzzle and Dragons Z on the 3DS.

This I agree on. P&DZ was great product and has sold, what, 1.45 million already on 3DS? Using popular franchises from mobile in consoles is a move I wish more companies would make.

 

[sörine]

Winning Eleven buried its own grave. It's been years since the last time I've heard anybody discussing if PES is better than FIFA of viceversa. The drop in quality has been quite big compared to last-last gen.

While this is definitely true I'm not sure how much bearing it has on Japan specifically. It's not like FIFA took the market there.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

20k for WiiU during MK....thats bad.

 

[RM8]

I don't see WiiU breaking 30k at all. It's sad, but it seems to be immune to big selling franchises I just hope the attach rate for Mario Kart 8 is insane, because it seems to be an awesome game and it'd be a shame if it turns out to be the least played Mario Kart to date.

Also, while Infamous obviously wasn't going to set Japan on fire, wow at it literally doing nothing for PS4.

 

[Dragonborn]

Everything looks so grim. Sad to see.

 

[Moor-Angol]

last week :

Wii U - 9k
PS4 - 7k
PS3 - 7k



5 years ago :

Wii - 14k
PS3 - 9k
360 - 5k

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

This I agree on. P&DZ was great product and has sold, what, 1.45 million already on 3DS? Using popular franchises from mobile in consoles is a move I wish more companies would make.

I think it might just be a matter of experience. GungHo was an established "traditional" developer before PAD was even a blip on the radar, but many of the companies with top selling smartphone games have never released anything on consoles or handhelds before.

If only the big three would extend their support for indie devs to Japan itself...

 

[Moor-Angol]

Disingenuous.

You're missing a couple games. Here are the top selling PS3 games when it was as old as the Vita is today:

I clearly wrote "when PS3 was around the same Vita is actually, 2.8mln" beginning of 2009 (numbers were took from 2008 top500)

 

[RiggyRob]

20k for WiiU during MK....thats bad.

These are last week's sales, Mario Kart comes out tomorrow in Japan.

 

[schuelma]

20k for WiiU during MK....thats bad.

Whoa you already have next weeks numbers?!?

 

[Principate]

last week :

Wii U - 9k
PS4 - 7k
PS3 - 7k



5 years ago :

Wii - 14k
PS3 - 9k
360 - 5k

The more things change the more they stay the same.

 

[valouris]

20k for WiiU during MK....thats bad.

not quite there yet