Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
With all of those games, how many should they sell? What's a lot of consoles?
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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)
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With all of those games, how many should they sell? What's a lot of consoles?
MasterCornholio
Member
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MasterCornholio
Member
Weekend at Jimbo’s
pasterpl
Member
Pentiment, hi-fi rush, psychonauts 2, perfect dark, starfield, hellbalde, Indiana Jones, awoved and even fable (we don’t know anything about this one yet, but i don’t see it being online gaas) tell us different story. Yes, MS working on some GaaS games, but so far most of what they have presented/published/focused on this gen is single player experienceses.
Most of these games haven't even released. Do you even know what perfect dark, avowed, or fable are going to be like?
Besides those minor ones which have released are exclusive and outnumbered by GaaS game releases, both third and first party. We're talking about switching platforms here.
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Gobjuduck
Banned
for you. I know you are die hard PlayStation.
Loads of gamers abandoned their achievements, when they went to PC or PlayStation. The entire 3Ds digital library didn’t go to the switch. I think consumers mostly want to play new stuff, and if a certain console has the stuff they want, they will buy it. I abandoned my PlayStation account for good, and my Xbox account for 4-5 years when I got into Pc gaming.
There is a select number of diehards that will never leave their platform, because they have accounts, libraries, trophies they’d like to grow.
You would be shocked how little achievements/trophies, games, game progress normal gamers have.
this belief only applies to steam libraries. because the competition has no chance to ever catch up.
PlayStation and Xbox will find ways to fuck over their ecosystem with each generation. They will entice non-loyal gamers with games like starfield and Spider-Man.
pasterpl
Member
Yeah I don’t know details of all of these games, but neither do you, but jump to conclusions and assume. Btw. Nothing shown so far for likes of starfield, and halleblade suggest online gaas so not sure why you bolded these. Yes, you were talking about switching platforms, but you are using made up argument/stats.
SneakersSO
Member
Requiring a PS5 has not stopped it from selling a record number of consoles. Sony's big 1st party slate last year was all cross-gen, and yet the attach rate for those games are heavily in the PS5's favor, not to say anything of how they managed to rebound on console sales in one of the worst supply droughts a console has ever seen. Also, gaming is largely recession proof, but even besides that: lets say your thesis is right. Folks are paying for a luxury item due to it being a recession. Okay - how do you explain the Switch sales then? Or how well Steam Deck is doing given its a brand new piece of HW in the market that is also supply strapped.
A Xbox Series S in many markets is now cheaper than a Switch, with loads of games and an exclusive that should be worth its weight in diamonds, Game Pass. They are literally giving away their entire SW revenue stream and it still isn't getting folks to buy into their console eco. Meanwhile, Sony/Nintendo/Valve are setting records on selling both SW and HW, despite it being a recession, and in-spite of Sony pushing out 3 major titles last year that were all cross-gen PS4, which is the 2nd highest selling console of all time.
It absolutely won't - the core issue (and I know; I have spoken to folks within Xbox Publishing about this) is Steam. Microsoft and other publishers now have loads of data and consumer surveys completely spelling out that day 1 releasing on Steam completely undermines the console selling potential of any of their releases. Maybe this strategy would've worked before Steam became the biggest growing market in core games, but PC gaming is now at its apex of growth with no significant signs of stopping.
Heck, Xbox has had major releases, games that are still getting content. Each of those should have the ability to move HW, but aren't.
SneakersSO
Member
Okay, caught up on today's big blow up about MS. It honestly feels like these threads monitoring these deals are now spilling over into media narratives about Xbox in games.
I've already spoken at length in this thread that MS will never leave gaming - the vertical integrations they get in gaming for their bigger sectors, namely Cloud services/Azure, will ensure it stays there. But i've also outlined in here - what MS looks in gaming could very well change, and like i've stated before, that doesn't necessarily mean that even if they were to cut the Xbox HW line out of the equation, that they still couldn't be actively making and releasing games.
If you took everything about MS' current business plan and removed the HW angle, the whole thing becomes a far, far smarter play for them.
I've already spoken at length in this thread that MS will never leave gaming - the vertical integrations they get in gaming for their bigger sectors, namely Cloud services/Azure, will ensure it stays there. But i've also outlined in here - what MS looks in gaming could very well change, and like i've stated before, that doesn't necessarily mean that even if they were to cut the Xbox HW line out of the equation, that they still couldn't be actively making and releasing games.
If you took everything about MS' current business plan and removed the HW angle, the whole thing becomes a far, far smarter play for them.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
To be fair, out of these 9 games, 6 games were already in production when Xbox acquired those studios. So those 6 games were not even initiated or green-lit by Xbox.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Yeah that's what I'm predicting too. If things go even more South for them, they will abandon the hardware first (they're already incurring up to $200 loss per box sold) and will try to become profitable by being a third-party game publisher and subscription owner (ala EA). They have way too many studios and IPs at this point to completely abandon everything.
So the Xbox brand may change but will persist.
They may shut down the gaming division completely after a few years, however, if even being a third-party game publisher doesn't work out for them. But that's a long, long, long shot as of now.
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What's the made up argument? I didn't suggest hellblade or starfield are gaas or not. I bolded the games that haven't released. You suggested this list of unreleased games assuming none of them could be GaaS when you know very little about them. I didn't make any assumptions about any of them.
I only said MS is mainly concentrating on online GaaS at the moment and that's mostly true. Wasn’t even specifically referring to their first party releases either but their gamepass strategy which would stop somebody switching to another service or platform to play the same mostly GaaS games and not having their mtxs and saves transfer over.
Even if we were to look at first party or exclusive releases for whatever reason, I would say it's also true there, with the likes of Grounded, Halo Infinite, SoT, Minecraft, Gears and even Forza having GaaS elements one way or another.
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IFireflyl
Gold Member
Honestly, the Xbox Series X is their best designed and performant console to date. It's my favorite console so far this generation, although 99.9% of my gaming is on PC. The hardware isn't Microsoft's issue.
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James Sawyer Ford
Member
Well despite what you think about the hardware, his point is it’s not really selling as well as hoped into the marketplace despite having the cheapest console
Maybe that changes dramatically once they start releasing high quality first party games, or perhaps their audience has simply moved on to PC and won’t be coming back
I don’t really know how they transform into a successful third party without improving their first party output, and I doubt running the hardware business is that costly unless they are running huge losses on XSX and XSS that im not aware of, so I see no point in abandoning consoles
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SneakersSO
Member
It can be their best designed to console to date - its not really enhancing their ability to sell the darn thing.
I mean, if you take the console portion out, which in tandem with needing console sales to push GP adoption, is a massive driver for their costs.
The SW revenue that MS generate on Steam? Fantastic. Sure, they have shipped some massively over budgeted projects, but things like Grounded, Sea of Thieves, State of Decay 2, not to say anything of Minecraft, and even some of the smaller games, have been fantastic revenue drivers. Having so many current and upcoming live-services titles, all utilizing Azure, is also an incredible vertical integration.
Right now, by MS' own admission, they are losing $200 per console sold. All that just so they can sell fewer units than they did last generation, something which they never though would happen. Selling HW is not easy, loads of hassle you have to deal with, not to mention that the fundamentals of their console business no longer is working - the entire console business plan is driven by monetizing SW you sell. Its increasingly clear that MS' ability to sell enough SW in their console ecosystem is dwindling.
And even by that point - I don't even think that they would ever drop Xbox itself as a HW option for those who truly want it; why give away that sweet GP and XBLG revenue? Instead, like i've stated since the onset, MS is just going to aggressively expand where their software output is being offered. Think of it as a 3rd party with an optional HW unit in case you really want to use it. Kinda like Valve, but they ship their games on consoles too.
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DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
If xbox releases a shit load of games this year and have an amazing year of announcing ( and showing) future games and it barely moves the needle on sales...it just proves that fans are far too entrenched to even consider an viable decent other option of a console and something is actually wrong.
Just like AMD swayed millions of PC owners, what does it take to convince people to pick up an xbox?
What would it take to convince people here? I think there are many that are that entrenched in an eco system they wouldn't pick one up, no matter what...out of spite or something....which is a really bad place for us to be.
Just like AMD swayed millions of PC owners, what does it take to convince people to pick up an xbox?
What would it take to convince people here? I think there are many that are that entrenched in an eco system they wouldn't pick one up, no matter what...out of spite or something....which is a really bad place for us to be.
ToadMan
Member
It's ironic that MS selling less consoles is reducing their potential losses - if they were selling more, and then "only" getting discounted GP subs attached, they'd be losing money faster....
But yeah I don't think MS drop the xbox hardware while that makes sense in the market, but I could see them drop custom console hardware for next gen. They can move to an off the shelf PC unit with xbox branding, a custom OS so it is plug and play in the living room, and then on-ramp people to GP with that - the Series consoles are basically this as loss-leaders today, but the Series S (and indeed the Switch) shows you don't need the most powerful box around, just a good enough one. Then there's a cloud dongle for people with the network infrastructure.
This alleviates HW losses and let's MS be a software & platform company again. MS has always had bad experiences with HW product lines.
Banjo64
cumsessed
It’s not that complicated dude, Sony and Nintendo have consistently released multiple top quality games every single year for every single console generation. There has been one or two bad spells for each company (3DS and Wii U having barren spells and the first half of the PS3).
Xbox are in a position where their best ever period was the first half of the 360 generation. It’s never been better than that, and the Xbox One in particular never had the same quality.
It’s pointless Xbox having a year like 2021, and then only releasing 1 or 2 AA games in 2022.
To gain mindshare they need to be releasing must have games every single year. The kind of game that normies talk about like God of War. I’m not talking about a new Forza (however good it might be). They’d probably need to do this for 4 years minimum before the public perception changes.
Look at the PS3 second half. Absolutely murdered Xbox in the Game department but the mammoth shift in perception didn’t really truly ignite until the PS4 launched.
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The thing is people know by now, Xbox will not release a shit load of games this year. That is the problem. We may get 1 or 2 big games. A lot of people won't switch consoles for games like HiFi rush.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
One doesn't have to be a die-hard fan for this to apply.
You're talking about previous generations when digital libraries made up for 20% at best. Now, digital sales are almost 70% in the industry. An average person's digital library after 1 generation (7-8 years) would easily be more than $1,500. How can anyone abandon that easily?
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
Totally makes sense, but I think you're a more middle of the road person/player/human lol
What does it take to sway those people that aren't that, I don't think they can...becuase I've been having these conversations since the 360 was at the pinnacle of its gaming mindshare....there's loads of those people that used to just say things like...I don't need an xbox ill just buy a pc...but they never did buy a pc and missed out on great games.
I'm coming from the perspective that one game could make me invest in a platform...so I'm not sure what MS needs to do but I admit they've been light on games and that's on them. They do have great games and game pass is killer so I dunno..
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
No, that's a very bad way to look at it.
You're expecting people to buy Xbox over a PS5 based on just 1 year of potentially good games? In a year when PS5 would also have PS VR 2, Horizon Burning Shores, Final Fantasy XVI, Spider-Man 2, and possibly TLOU Online? And when people know that PS5 will likely also get sequels to popular games like TLOU, Spider-Man, Ghost of Tsushima, Uncharted, etc.
Why?
PS5 has gained this position after delivering GOTY 10/10 games for YEARS now. If you expect people to choose Xbox over PS5 based on just one year or else putting your hands up, and saying, nothing works, then you're absolutely wrong.
It's not supposed to work like that -- especially when Xbox has 0 marketing outside of US and UK and they engage in 0 localization efforts.
Helghan
Member
Sony is literally the company that said they are focussing more on online GaaS games, that they have a lot of them in development, and one of the reasons they bought Bungie was exactly for this.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
I've talked about this before on this forum and, as expected, got a few 'laughing' emojis from people who couldn't understand.
Xbox cannot just afford to make games that are as good as PlayStation's anymore. They need to make games that are significantly better than TLOU, God of War, Spider-Man, Ghost of Tsushima, etc. And then do it for years.
There's no shortcut, and Microsoft has always looked for shortcuts in this industry where a single game takes 5+ years to be developed. It doesn't work.
Those Xbox games should be so much better than PlayStation's that a PS fan would be willing to give up playing the next TLOU or God of War or Spider-Man. That's the only way to reduce PlayStation's market share and increase Xbox's market share, because there's only a finite amount of console gamers out there, and it's a zero-sum game for the large majority who is a single-console owner between the two.
Ask yourself: if Hi-Fi Rush or Redfall or Forza or Halo Infinite or Hellblade or Pentiment are those games for the majority of the gamers out there?
Ash Sparrow
Banned
Has no one asked why the CMA Country Music Awards is trying to block MS acquisition of Activision?
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
They have already detailed everything in their provisional findings, and most of us have read it. So there's no need to ask.
Banjo64
cumsessed
The acoustics for this deal just aren’t right.
TheGodfather07
Member
They need must have games. Look at excitement for starfield. It's a big AAA single player game. That's all people are asking for. If they can release 2 games like that per year, things will improve. You can never expect games like pentiment or hifi rush to do anything. They are meant to be a supplement to the big games.
When you look at the software output of xbox over the last decade, it's quite barren and thats a long period. Microsoft themselves are to blame for that. Its not that Sony are unstoppable and too dominant. Microsoft just haven't been competitive enough. Where as sony have literally been at the top of their game during that same period. Nintendo too have come into their own.
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PaintTinJr
Member
What you have written feels well thought out because it would address the major point Xbox needs to fix, and that IMO is that people (gamers) need to trust the offer to invest in a technology (console).
Sega's demise in gaming was they'd lost consumers' trust IMO, first by making multiple bad console bets in a short time frame, which led to too much pressure on their first party output at a time when Shenmue type production games couldn't fill the gap of missing yearly multi-plat releases because of difficulty/cost/time.
IMO Xbox was most successful in the 360 era because everyone from devs to consumers were amazed by how they'd doubled down on their OG Xbox investment - as though the investment would never stop - and that lasted up until a few years before Kinect. Until that point Microsoft's real SOP wasn't flagged for Xbox consumers as something to undermine trust in the platform. Fast forward to now - especially this deal - and IMO Microsoft's SOP and objectives are there for all to see, and it essentially undermines any trust for non-xbox gamers to ever "jump-in".
Personally I think Xbox would need to be extracted as a separate entity like Bungie is from Sony to re-establish a path for trust regardless of if they could manage three consecutive years of bangers - but the gamepass project makes that option virtually impossible, now with everything so intertwined.
A standalone Xbox division given a big $10b starting wallet that had the autonomy to ditch the Series' Windows OS/DirectX/Xcloud as technologies if strategically prudent to do so, and just run as a division that had to turn a profit in 10years to avoid meddling oversight from Microsoft, and just be focused entirely on selling consoles, selling games, subs and DLC would set them up like a traditional console company and give them a much needed rebranding to be a trustworthy platform for the the masses IMHO.
Microsoft's two decades in gaming makes it harder to repeat the 360 success IMO, because that success probably relied on consumers being willing to give them a go, which many won't now due to a lack of trust from acquisition actions like this.
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RickMasters
Member
The problem they have really all ties back to first party. They could have the greatest release schedule in gaming this year and it would only make people say "cool....lets see if you can keep it up, now"....Their lack of consistant quality has become a negative trait of xbox. Had they been putting out a variety of great 1st party games for the last few years, none of this would be an issue. Its going to take time and effort. And actual taste and flair and passion. No more short cuts. Make great games and make them consistantly....make smart deals for great 3P games to fill in the blanks... make deals that respond to what your competitor is offering. grab some big japanese exclusives......they should be paying sega to remake panzer dragoon saga seeing as they will never get shenmue 3...they should be doubling down on deals with sega to fill the void that will be left for xbox gamers who will miss final fantasy, they have lots of JRPGs under their umbrella.
And they need to stop doing whatever it is they are doing over there that drives away their most prized talents...... Whether we are talking the OG xbox team (seamus blackley and co) J.Allard..... Bungie, original members of rare...I could go on...and they have lost shinji mikami. How does the richest company in the world not have what it takes to keep these industry talents and legends happy? something aint right, and its like MS dont even know quite know what it is.
DenchDeckard
Moderated wildly
I think that's crazy to say that, why does anyone have to "give up" their playstation....Why not buy both? why aren't those people buying both consoles? There's something deeper involved and I don't think any of us understand it.
I get it when you are talking about the everyday public who just buy fifa and Cod/Madden...but theres millions of people out there that consider themselves hardcore gaming hobbyists but refuse to own anything but a playstation...and maybe a switch...but even then there's loads that insult nintendo games and think they are kiddy. I don't think there's a way to penetrate those people without something major happening....If at all.
Just a question, do you own a switch? an Xbox and or a PC that you actually purchase games on and use frequently?
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PaintTinJr
Member
I might have misheard, but I think she just said the decision would need to withstand a legal test. If you are passing a deal does it need to be water tight legally? Whom could oppose it in courts? Surely if it needs to withstand a legal test that means the EC have already ruled against the merger, no?
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From the words she used it also seems if EA was the company being acquired that it would undergo higher scrutiny based on their football game being the ony game she named - making it an essential gaming input in their eyes I suspect.
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IMO it's just the fact you can appeal a decision from DG COMP to the EC courts, which ever way it could go but yeah, I don't think third parties would go to court if it gets approved.
I don't think this is particularly telling of anything personally but can see how some could see it being indicative of a decision.
I do need to look for the data but iirc, the DG COMP fines have a decent tendencies of being massively reduced in some occasions.
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Jim Ryan other Clone
Banned
When you agree with someone better check if he is correct first and then agree... The first guy said x games will Not come to PS, second guy says why you think it will come to PS and you agree with the second guy. Reading is difficult while fighting and trying to avoid bullets in this thread but still.
Sanepar
Member
Because Microsoft insist to not delivey single player only AAA experiences. Instead they want to force mp, gaas and coop experiences... that consumers in Europe and Asia don't want.
They have more than enough to create great sp games they just don't want and prefer to force a taste change.
Sanepar
Member
Man pentinent and hi fi rush are fucking indies. No one will race to buy a console for that. Then will bring a lot of games that not even launch. Can't u see the problem? And worse games that we have no idea if they will be good or not. And their track is not good.
IbizaPocholo
NeoGAFs Kent Brockman
Phil Spencer says ‘Xbox will exist’ even if Activision Blizzard deal is blocked | VGC
“It’s not some linchpin to the long term”…
www.videogameschronicle.com
Phil Spencer was in the UK this week for talks with the Competition and Markets Authority, following a European Commission hearing in which it defended the proposed deal amid concerns it could harm competition, particularly if it were to make games like Call of Duty exclusive to its platform.
The CMA is in the middle of an in-depth investigation into the acquisition, while it also faces challenges from the European Commission and the US FTC.
Although the deal would be by far Microsoft’s biggest ever acquisition, the corporation makes far more from non-gaming products such as Windows, Office and its cloud services.
The Times asked Spencer what would happen to Xbox should such an important acquisition be blocked by regulators, to which he responded that the gaming business was not dependent on its completion.
“This is an important acquisition for us. It’s not some linchpin to the long term — Xbox will exist if this deal doesn’t go through,” he said.
Much of regulators’ concerns around the Activision Blizzard deal have focused on how it could allegedly reduce PlayStation’s ability to compete given that it would see Microsoft gain ownership of the Call of Duty series, which Sony has called “irreplaceable”.
Spencer said that he was baffled why regulators were seemingly protecting the console firm, which it claimed in a press conference last week controls a 70 percent mark share in the console business.
Microsoft recently said it had offered Sony a 10-year, legally enforceable contract to make each new Call of Duty game available on PlayStation the same day it comes to Xbox.
“Competition is us trying to get stronger,” Spencer told The Times. “I don’t have great rationale for … how better competition in consoles is somehow hurtful for consumers.
“Because to me, having us, Sony, and Nintendo doing well in the console market — all of us with strengths and uniqueness and content and capabilities — gives consumers more choice.
“I’d hate to see consoles go to where phones are where there are only two manufacturers. And, right now, we have three good competitors.”
In addition to regulatory concerns around competition in the console market, potential influence on the cloud gaming market is also being explored. Given the complexity of the investigations, Spencer said he feels sympathy for regulators.
“Most of the time in my career at Xbox as I’ve met with government regulators, there’s been a real lack of knowledge about the games industry,” he said.
“I’ve appreciated spending time with them and in certain cases helping to educate. I think for a lot of the regulators, this is the first time they’ve looked at this industry.”
Mibu no ookami
Demoted Member® Pro™
She's speaking in generalities here, not necessarily about msft/abk specifically.
She's saying that the court systems in europe require really strong language in order to not have their decisions overturned, compared to the CMA that doesn't need as much legal framework to reject a deal.
OmegaSupreme
advanced basic bitch
So they are counting Nintendo as competion? I feel like this changes week to week.
MasterCornholio
Member
I don't think Xbox will go anywhere. However things could change a lot if this deal doesn't go through. I'm thinking of liposuction at the highest level.
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Yoboman
Member
Call him Jimbo Slice cause I'ma bout to slice off a bit of that sweet cakeslim jim looks fit for his age
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
Of course they’ll be around.
They need to focus on what they already have, instead. Of chasing Activision/Blizzard.
They need to focus on what they already have, instead. Of chasing Activision/Blizzard.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
Only extremely hardcore fans would buy both PS and Xbox as 95% of the game library is the same. The overwhelming majority of gamers can only afford and would buy only one console.
The decision they make defines which console becomes the market leader.
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