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[feynoob]

I guess it depends on how up to date you are, a lot of us are busy to the point where we can wait a few months.
Fast forward to later this year though and it becomes more interesting if you plan on buying Starfield and Forza and Hellblade.
I mean for someone who game a lot you would think $120 a year would be worth it long term........even if we are in a lull.
What about all the game you sort of want to buy/try? I have tried a whole bunch of amazing games on gamepass would never have even played and that offers me value.
That said, buying isn't all bad, if it works out for you. I think the two models can co-exist peacefully.

You have to consider people's taste in this equation.
From january to may, i havent used gamepass at all. There was nothing there for me. It might be different on the latter half.

Saving money is nice, but I am not going to waste my money on a service which I dont use. I am not gullable. I will rather enjoy 4 caramel frappe for that month.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

This is not true.

For movies: Certainly much better than the crap movies we used to see made for networks. Leagues ahead, really. Can't compare to theatrical as this has always been a separate release.
For TV shows: Before subscription services, we basically had HBO for great shows. The emergence of Netflix, then Disney plus, paramount, Apple +, and amazon have all deliver a whole slew of really excellent shows. Most much better than the garbage we saw on major networks.
For Music: Subscription hasn't affect quality any way at all.
For Games: Nobody really knows if they are affecting it positively or negatively. Of course you can argue the companies releasing games won't care about quality, but just like Netflix/apple/paramount/disney, it's actually a race to produce the best content. The group with the best content can
attract the most customers. Potentially knowing you have fixed revenue could also allow developers more time and resources to properly finish games. (this depends on who's in charge)

Your 5 star restaurant sub basically does exist, it's called Club 33, and it's still 5 star. They do still have to pay for food but that's not really the primary cost. 25K up front and 10K a year before you take a bite. Again it's all about who is running it.
The notion of coming in and eating 5 times a day is nonsense, since the other methods cost nothing per use and food and space would obviously be at a premium at a restaurant.

Sign people up for a once a month 5 star restaurant for $500 a month, you can eat there once a month, what makes you think a proper staff and chef can't keep this a great place to eat? Quality of the food could be as good or better than other restaurants.
The fixed revenue stream would definitely help with staffing and cost planning.

I love how you're comparing made for tv movies and ignoring theatrical releases. Netflix has struggled to make consistently good movies and the networks themselves are subscription based...again not about quality which is the point I made.

I said music was the exception.

We do know that it isn't affecting it positively. All the companies that care about quality because quality is what sells for them, aren't doing subscriptions for their quality titles, which you would compare to theatrical releases.

The profit-sharing model involved with subscriptions will never pan out unless MORE revenue comes in for subscriptions than were previously coming in for B2P... That's why it works for music. The industry has grown with the increase in access. The only way to increase the access in gaming is via streaming.

Just laughing at the rest of your comments.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

You would think xbox total revenue was down massively

You mean how their subscription service is flat lining and almost certainly not profitable and their console sales have shrunk this year? Profit is certainly down if it is even profitable and revenue is almost certainly going to be down yoy.

The problem is Microsoft doesn't share numbers much so we'll probably never know.

But if you think this has been a good year (18 months for microsoft, you're beyond delusional).

 

[reksveks]

I am probably not the typical consumer so do sub and buy games/movies that I have played. I would do it more with games but 1) physical games feel a bit less special 2) only got the space for one physical collection.

Gives me nice game specific art books or prints though

 

[feynoob]

I love how you're comparing made for tv movies and ignoring theatrical releases. Netflix has struggled to make consistently good movies and the networks themselves are subscription based...again not about quality which is the point I made.

I said music was the exception.

We do know that it isn't affecting it positively. All the companies that care about quality because quality is what sells for them, aren't doing subscriptions for their quality titles, which you would compare to theatrical releases.

The profit-sharing model involved with subscriptions will never pan out unless MORE revenue comes in for subscriptions than were previously coming in for B2P... That's why it works for music. The industry has grown with the increase in access. The only way to increase the access in gaming is via streaming.

Just laughing at the rest of your comments.

There is audience for everything.
You can make as many high quality stuff as you want to, but without enough audience, it isnt enough.
Look at live service games vs SP games. There are alot of live service audience vs SP audience.

In your example, its about having the content that larger audience want. Certain shows and movies generate more money compared to a high class quality tv shows and movies. Same with games and music.

 

[feynoob]

You mean how their subscription service is flat lining and almost certainly not profitable and their console sales have shrunk this year? Profit is certainly down if it is even profitable and revenue is almost certainly going to be down yoy.

The problem is Microsoft doesn't share numbers much so we'll probably never know.

But if you think this has been a good year (18 months for microsoft, you're beyond delusional).

There problem is you my friend.
I think you need to understand the source of the problem first.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

There is audience for everything.
You can make as many high quality stuff as you want to, but without enough audience, it isnt enough.
Look at live service games vs SP games. There are alot of live service audience vs SP audience.

In your example, its about having the content that larger audience want. Certain shows and movies generate more money compared to a high class quality tv shows and movies. Same with games and music.

Yeah, that's absolutely true, but the problem with gaming is that the larger number of people are the SP audience vs the audience who are going to pay 10-15-20 dollars a month on a game subscription. That's really core gamers only.

GamePass isn't the only service that hit a wall. Look at Peleton and I'd argue they had been on firmer ground.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

There problem is you my friend.
I think you need to understand the source of the problem first.

The source of the problem is that you'll never have enough 3rd party support in gaming to create a subscription service that doesn't eat into B2P sales (which would cause 3rd parties to not support it).

Nintendo could totally get away with a subscription service, but Microsoft isn't Nintendo. It's not even Sony.

They can't do it on their own, which is why they're trying to buy their way into content and content library, but they hit a regulatory wall in trying to do so. That's why they're fighting for their life on this thing. Because they desperately need ABK but also they need to be able to keep buying.

 

[reksveks]

You mean how their subscription service is flat lining and almost certainly not profitable and their console sales have shrunk this year? Profit is certainly down if it is even profitable and revenue is almost certainly going to be down yoy.

Console sales being a smaller % of total revenue in theory would increase Xbox's margins. Profit is a weird thing for a service like Gamepass because it's not meant to be a high margin revenue stream imo. Also used the adjective 'massively', I can see it being flat. I forget what the MS forecast was for the next quarter.

The problem is Microsoft doesn't share numbers much so we'll probably never know.

No, we won't everything but we will know the top level revenue.

But if you think this has been a good year (18 months for microsoft, you're beyond delusional).

Fortunately I don't think that's the case

 

[Ronin_7]

I've subbed to Game Pass for about 8 cumulative months since Series X launched.

Really not compelled by it. I liked Halo and Forza, and will sign up again for Starfield, but the rest of my time was a lot of booting games up and uninstalling 30 mins later.

There's some stellar games on there but I've already played the likes of Fallout 3 and Gears.

Time is more valuable than money and I'm not gonna waste it playing shit like Atomic Heart because it's 'free'.

That's exactly how subscription services work

If it's going this badly in NA it should be even worse over here in Europe.

 

[Ronin_7]

The source of the problem is that you'll never have enough 3rd party support in gaming to create a subscription service that doesn't eat into B2P sales (which would cause 3rd parties to not support it).

Nintendo could totally get away with a subscription service, but Microsoft isn't Nintendo. It's not even Sony.

They can't do it on their own, which is why they're trying to buy their way into content and content library, but they hit a regulatory wall in trying to do so. That's why they're fighting for their life on this thing. Because they desperately need ABK but also they need to be able to keep buying.

They'll need to buy smaller companies from here since Big publishers are out of the table, they can try and take YEARS upon years in Courts.

And from what we know no one wants to sell right now apparently.

 

[feynoob]

Yeah, that's absolutely true, but the problem with gaming is that the larger number of people are the SP audience vs the audience who are going to pay 10-15-20 dollars a month on a game subscription. That's really core gamers only.

GamePass isn't the only service that hit a wall. Look at Peleton and I'd argue they had been on firmer ground.

SP audience are small. And that is due to them not having a social interaction.
GTA5 for example is huge SP game. While the game has a huge SP mode, people are spending alot of time on the online portion. And that is due to having social interaction.

For subscription services, they target audience that like more library or play games which they dont spend money on it, audience that want to save money. But all those need contents that can satisfy them and that is hard to do that. You have to get the game choice right, have steller 3rd party games and mostly compelling first party games.

Gamepass main weakness was Xbox lack of first party games. At least bethesda added a good value to the service. Hopefully Xbox does the same with this showcase.

 

[T_T]

"Finding new subscribers beyond the console ownership base has proven very difficult thus far."
So this is purely GamePass, right? No one buys PS+ if they don't already have a Playstation.
Sony has shown that their overall number of subs was more or less the same but the revenue increased since a good portion of them moved to the more profitable higher tiers.
So if the overall market is about the same it means that GP numbers have hit a snag or two or ten. And this is just the US, Microsoft's stronghold market. Their worldwide numbers must be even lower.

 

[systemr123]

What are you talking about? Every single MS studio AAA game is still on gamepass, they remove nothing over time that they own outright. I take it you don't subscribe, or you would know this.
All the Halo games, all the Forza games, all the gears games, etc, all have been up and are still up. The only ones that cycle out are 3rd party and there is still a good selection on there.

I mean the AAA 3rd party titles have been removed over the years. Yes the MS stuff is there and always will be, unfortunately most of it is not very good, or worse than that.

And it also seems not many great titles will be addd the coming years as MS itself says great games don’t sell consoles so they don’t have to create great games anymore according to their own logic.

Hopefully Starfield will be awesome but lets wait and see first.

Also, I have a subscription since the beginning so I have seen the many times they removed initial line up AAA titles in favor of indies.

 

[feynoob]

The source of the problem is that you'll never have enough 3rd party support in gaming to create a subscription service that doesn't eat into B2P sales (which would cause 3rd parties to not support it).

Nintendo could totally get away with a subscription service, but Microsoft isn't Nintendo. It's not even Sony.

They can't do it on their own, which is why they're trying to buy their way into content and content library, but they hit a regulatory wall in trying to do so. That's why they're fighting for their life on this thing. Because they desperately need ABK but also they need to be able to keep buying.

I can think of dozen games that can be a good fit for the service.
All 2022 releases can be released on the service.

You dont need to put day1 games on the service. Just get them 1-2 years after release.

Resident Evil Village, Far Cry 6, Dying Light 2: Stay Human, The Callisto Protocol​

Putting these games after 1-2 release would be beneficial for everyone. Devs get money after their sales period and subs users get a good content.

 

[feynoob]

"Finding new subscribers beyond the console ownership base has proven very difficult thus far."
So this is purely GamePass, right? No one buys PS+ if they don't already have a Playstation.
Sony has shown that their overall number of subs was more or less the same but the revenue increased since a good portion of them moved to the more profitable higher tiers.
So if the overall market is about the same it means that GP numbers have hit a snag or two or ten. And this is just the US, Microsoft's stronghold market. Their worldwide numbers must be even lower.

Its tied to console userbase, new users coming to your ecosystem and how much content you have as a platform.
Unlike PS, gamepass has a pc side, which can be increased. But for that to happen, you need the content which has been a main issue for the service for the past 6 months.
There are suprises like persona, but those dont move the needle that much.

 

[Kacho]

fuck gaas

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I can think of dozen games that can be a good fit for the service.
All 2022 releases can be released on the service.

You dont need to put day1 games on the service. Just get them 1-2 years after release.

Resident Evil Village, Far Cry 6, Dying Light 2: Stay Human, The Callisto Protocol​

Putting these games after 1-2 release would be beneficial for everyone. Devs get money after their sales period and subs users get a good content.

Even a consistent stream of AAA games coming 1-2 years later is going to impact B2P...

If I'm a publisher, I don't want my games on GamePass or even PS+ until well after they've exhausted sales or mindshare.

 

[feynoob]

Even a consistent stream of AAA games coming 1-2 years later is going to impact B2P...

If I'm a publisher, I don't want my games on GamePass or even PS+ until well after they've exhausted sales or mindshare.

games depreciate value after 1-2 years, so their sales isnt that big compared to day1 sales.
They get more money by putting it on a service, as they get huge chunk of money.

 

[Heisenberg007]

"Finding new subscribers beyond the console ownership base has proven very difficult thus far."
So this is purely GamePass, right? No one buys PS+ if they don't already have a Playstation.
Sony has shown that their overall number of subs was more or less the same but the revenue increased since a good portion of them moved to the more profitable higher tiers.
So if the overall market is about the same it means that GP numbers have hit a snag or two or ten. And this is just the US, Microsoft's stronghold market. Their worldwide numbers must be even lower.

Out of the 2 companies, only one isn't sharing their subscription numbers.

The one that's hiding the numbers is the one that isn't growing.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

games depreciate value after 1-2 years, so their sales isnt that big compared to day1 sales.
They get more money by putting it on a service, as they get huge chunk of money.

It's about the message it sends and if I'm on a service that gets all the major games 1-2 years later or a sufficient amount, I'm still not buying games.

No publisher wants to get into that.

Atlus put Persona 3, 4, 5 on GamePass, but one of those titles was for 2006...

 

[feynoob]

Out of the 2 companies, only one isn't sharing their subscription numbers.

The one that's hiding the numbers is the one that isn't growing.

Its 27m-29m at this stage(june 2023).


Sony stated 29m userbase, but that could be a forecast like ampire had here in this twitter.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

As far as gaming goes, a sub-based service CANNOT be the primary business model. It just won't work.

MS is not being honest about it, but that's expected, the really funny part is that fans of the service... are not even being honest either.

How many people are really paying for gamepass 12 months in a year? Even on here, how many fans admit that they may only have paid for it for like 4-6 months in a year? I personally know that I only pay for it for like 3 months total in a year, and I am sure I am not the only person that thinks like that.

And that's the problem with subscription services. They are only really good for the first year, but after that, their worth is measured on a month-to-month basis. And games being what they are, most people... or rather, the `smart` thing to do, would ultimately be to wait for a few months, pay for one month, and in that one month play like the 2-3 new games you are interested in that were just added to the service... then go on another 3-4month hiatus, and do it again.

So someone like me, spends like $30-$45 a year, and that gives access to everything gamepass has to offer that I am interested in.

And I have probably said this before, if MS had the install base that allowed their exclusives to sell like 10-20M copies when released.. they would never have done gamepass the way gamepass currently is.

 

[DryvBy]

I would agree on great games, however I would rather get more value from my dollar, so hard pass on eliminating subs. I easily get twice as many games for the same price and get to try ones I would not have.

I don't find any value in these subs. You're not getting AAA huge blockbusters every month, you're usually getting bargain bin titles, older indie games, or newer indie games that aren't that great.

June's games for Game Pass:
-Hypnospace Outlaw
-Slayer X
-Amnesia Bunker
-The Big Con
-Rune Factory 4
-Dordogne
-Stacking

There's a lot of games there, and a few that are actually fun, but they're mostly old. Stacking came out on the PS3/Xbox 360 era and is owned by Microsoft. Rune Factory 4 has been out for a few years. Hypnospace is a few years too. Amensia is probably the most expensive new game on that list and it's a $25 game.

It's not like you're getting big releases every month. They're not going to give you a big budget game every single time. Starfield will be a great month but you're subbing for how much a month to get the big game? Unless you're really into older indie games or oddball games, it's hardly worth it. The average person isn't going to care about getting these niche titles when they can just go buy Diablo 4 and be full for several months on a bigger budget game.

If you're into these games, great. If you don't have them, Hypnospace is awesome. But understand this is why Gamepass/Plus/subs isn't going anywhere.

 

[feynoob]

It's about the message it sends and if I'm on a service that gets all the major games 1-2 years later or a sufficient amount, I'm still not buying games.

No publisher wants to get into that.

Atlus put Persona 3, 4, 5 on GamePass, but one of those titles was for 2006...

Take a single look at PS+ premium drop this year first.

Developers know very well that people will buy them day1. I mean we are seeing huge sales for games that have $70 price tag.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Take a single look at PS+ premium drop this year first.

Developers know very well that people will buy them day1. I mean we are seeing huge sales for games that have $70 price tag.

PS+ has gotten worse and worse on game releases lately

Yeah the strength of B2P is because PS+ isn't a service that largely kills B2P as much as GamePass... that's why we see all the sales of games going to PlayStation versions.

Not sure what argument you're trying to make here.

 

[feynoob]

I can see now why these companies are going after sub services and live service games.



too many people spending that much money.

 

[feynoob]

PS+ has gotten worse and worse on game releases lately

Yeah the strength of B2P is because PS+ isn't a service that largely kills B2P as much as GamePass... that's why we see all the sales of games going to PlayStation versions.

Not sure what argument you're trying to make here.

brother, both are the same service. Only difference is day1. They lead to the same outcome.

 

[Thirty7ven]

Must be difficult to increase those subs when your main sub driver isn’t keeping pace.

 

[Unknown?]

We both play great games, I just pay less overall per game. (assuming we both "eat" a lot of games)
I also generally don't have a lot of time to replay games, so that's in my favor. That and I will still strategically buy games on sale later on, even sometimes 2 or 3 years later but at 20% of the cost or less.

If you don't replay a lot of them then physical is better for you. Buy cheaper and sell to get some money back. Sub's are just money that's forever gone.

 

[T_T]

>Its 27m-29m at this stage(june 2023).

Where do you get this from?

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Every company should double down on just making great games

Subs, GaaS, MTX…all a distraction from what matters

GaaS can be great games too.

Subs and MTX are all additive to the gaming business model. But GaaS are games. Examples like Warframe and Destiny 2 are excellent, hence why they're so popular.

 

[feynoob]

Where do you get this from?

Sony Claims Xbox Game Pass Has Reached 29 Million Subscribers - IGN

Sony claims Game Pass already has 29 million subscribers, which is millions more than Microsoft's last official record states.

www.ign.com

That number was a forecast as it was debunked by ampere.

gamepass January 2022 numbers had them at 25m. 27m-29m is the current estimate as of now, depending on this news. It coud even be higher.

 

[T_T]

Has Ampere said that they believe the numbers are of the 27-29 million range? If not, there is no reason to believe they are at that value or higher. GP has been dry content wise for some time now. It could just as likely be lower than January 2022.
feynoob

 

[feynoob]

Has Ampere said that they believe the numbers are of the 27-29 million range? If not, there is no reason to believe they are at that value or higher. GP has been dry content wise for some time now. It could just as likely be lower than January 2022.
feynoob

They mentioned as forcast for the 29m numbers. They have numbers, but its not 29m during that time. I guess it was higher than the 25m, but not close to the 29m meaning around 26m-27m.

 

[Riky]

Its 27m-29m at this stage(june 2023).


Sony stated 29m userbase, but that could be a forecast like ampire had here in this twitter.

Could we get a 30 million announcement at the Showcase? If not Starfield will push it over that figure.

 

[feynoob]

Could we get a 30 million announcement at the Showcase? If not Starfield will push it over that figure.

30m is hard at this stage, mainly due to Xbox consoles and Xbox live gold users.
But it can be acheived if they focus on PC gamepass.

 

[Kokoloko85]

But I was told its the future…. And the shills, *cough cough* I mean fans and media said Sony and Nintendo are bad guys for not giving day 1 games, like the trillion dollar company that doesn't disclose how much they spend or profit on said service.

While trying to get everyone on board to dictate how the games industry will function by a subscription model.

 

[Roufianos]

You can try my method. Sub to the service for 4 months. Unsub it for 4 months, then sub back to it.
3rd party games stay there for 12 months. That is enough time to play all cool games.

Yeaaa, I buy the 3-month codes. It's also pretty dumb that they don't offer yearly subscriptions, you'd think that would help that maintain subs.

 

[Riky]

30m is hard at this stage, mainly due to Xbox consoles and Xbox live gold users.
But it can be acheived if they focus on PC gamepass.

Starfield will be enough, it'll sell consoles and subs.

 

[Slicker than your average]

Well, here’s a reason why MS stopped reporting GP numbers 10+ months ago.

They don't report sales any more because they don't matter lol.

They don't report the bible (GP) any more.

Will they move on to minutes spent playing games on gamepass monthly next?

 

[balls of snow]

Is it a coincidence that the AAA day 1 gamepass games have dried off. I thought for sure something like Dead Island 2 would be on the service. Lo and behold, the game is a million plus seller. Go figure.

 

[feynoob]

Starfield will be enough, it'll sell consoles and subs.

It's not enough.
Getting 5m is hard and not easy achievement.

That is mainly due to console userbase and Xbox live service userbase ratio.

For example, PS4 had sold close to 120m, yet the PS+ couldn't pass that 50m mark.

It's a ceiling which the console side can't break.

It's up to PC side to do the heavy lifting at this point. I can't see that with how they treat their windows store.

 

[feynoob]

Yeaaa, I buy the 3-month codes. It's also pretty dumb that they don't offer yearly subscriptions, you'd think that would help that maintain subs.

They want to maximize their sales. It's scummy practice.

 

[Banjo64]

You can try my method. Sub to the service for 4 months. Unsub it for 4 months, then sub back to it.
3rd party games stay there for 12 months. That is enough time to play all cool games.

No issue doing that for Microsoft’s games as they are a trillion dollar company.

I’ve come to the realisation that I’d rather just give my money (70% anyway) directly to devs like Moon and Splashteam in order to preserve their independence and ability to create memorable games.

It’s about caring for the future of the industry and choosing where my money goes. Something that was made even easier with the admission that Game Pass is canabilising game sales on the platform. Microsoft don’t want the overall size of the pie to increase, they just want to take most of the pie and leave devs with a smaller slice.

 

[Riky]

It's not enough.
Getting 5m is hard and not easy achievement.

That is mainly due to console userbase and Xbox live service userbase ratio.

For example, PS4 had sold close to 120m, yet the PS+ couldn't pass that 50m mark.

It's a ceiling which the console side can't break.

It's up to PC side to do the heavy lifting at this point. I can't see that with how they treat their windows store.

They could be at 29 million already though, we'll see.

 

[yurinka]

I think that the tweet explains for itself: in recent months we're getting many great new games that are being sold and the games included in subscriptions in recent months instead have been weaker than before.

So guess what, instead of people getting subs they went to buy these great new games (like Zelda, Hogwarts Legacy, Street Fighter 6 or Diablo IV etc).

 

[bluecowboys]

Somehow you edited this and you still said sells instead of sales four times...

Thanks. I’ve edited my post again to fix the issues.

 

[Fake]

Good. To hell with subs and gaas.

 

[feynoob]

No issue doing that for Microsoft’s games as they are a trillion dollar company.

I’ve come to the realisation that I’d rather just give my money (70% anyway) directly to devs like Moon and Splashteam in order to preserve their independence and ability to create memorable games.

It’s about caring for the future of the industry and choosing where my money goes. Something that was made even easier with the admission that Game Pass is canabilising game sales on the platform. Microsoft don’t want the overall size of the pie to increase, they just want to take most of the pie and leave devs with a smaller slice.

Its in your rights to support them.
Indie like these only see $50m from their lifetime sales if they are lucky. Some good ones on the other do 10m depending on the price tag.

The issue for them comes over the split between them, the publishers, and the platform % revenue. These things take alot of money from them. That $50m revenue becomes $35m after the platform split. A huge chunk of money goes to development cost and remaining goes to split between publishers and devs.

What a good (and bad) indie game publishing deal looks like

Lawyer Kellen Voyer has advice for indie developers on what to sign, and what not to sign.

www.pcgamer.com

For them, getting gamepass/PS+ and other deals is a good for them. More money on top of sales.