As someone in the industry, what seems to be the feeling around this in regards to what it means for the future health of it? Do you, or anyone you know, feel that Xbox essentially going third-party is a bad thing? Or, are any concerns about the console space overblown and overlooking certain facts? Because if this goes down the way it looks, that will likely be the oft repeated narrative for quite some time. That the console market is doomed with just PlayStation and Nintendo. Especially considering the current situation between them where they almost occupy two different spaces. Any thoughts?
Okay, got some time before the pre-workout kicks in.
My colleagues, some who are recently unemployed (Thanks Phil/Riot!), but many of whom are at other studios, some XGS and some not, the general consensus that I have come away with is this: we're all scared shitless. I have yet to speak to a dev for the last 5 months that isn't absolutely terrified at the state of the industry and the environment we're working with. Folks who moved, bought houses, started families, went back to school for training, increased their quality of life, took on long needed medical expenditures, both for physical well being and mental well being, all just getting their hard earned savings wiped out, and worse yet - the opportunities that we can jump into are fewer and further between. Prior to this though, so many of my colleagues were already feeling fatigued. I don't necessarily think we have taken into account the mental toll that the increased development timelines of all scale of games is having on the folks who are working on them. 8/10/15 years ago, we'd ship a game and get a fresh start; maybe you were only working on it for the last year or 6 months or you were there from day 1, but most projects were shipping between 2-4 years at max. Now, we're talking 5+ year forecasting for game devs, both due to just how much longer it takes to make the base game or just a consequence of so many games being a live-service nowadays. This not only increases just that daily trudge of having to work on the same thing day in and day out, but it definitely increased the emotional investment we are being asked to make into these projects. I know several devs who slaved away for years on projects, only for them to be cancelled, shipped in a poor state, torn apart by publisher requests to maximize returns, or just getting laid off well before the game even ships. What makes it particularly frustrating is that we were just starting to see some actual respectable salary rates hit across the industry, after decades of being the most underpaid sector in tech (unless you got some stock option or rev. share, but you needed to be pretty high up the food chain to earn that, and even higher as time went on).
Now, as for concerns for the console market and how it'll feel with a weakened Xbox ecosystem. To be honest, no one is really concerned about what the console market will look like with a weakened MS eco., at least none that I spoke to. Actually, every dev i've spoken to at Zenimax is thrilled they'll be shipping on Nintendo and PS again. Its really hard to describe this but, we could feel the decreased interest in those titles once they became Xbox exclusive. It was very notable to the devs working on those IP and studios. You think my colleagues couldn't tell the disparity in reception (pre-launch) between DeathLoop and RedFall? And again - purely talking pre-launch here. Once Redfall came out, the matter changes entirely, but the feeling from devs in terms of audience reception in the pre-launch marketing cycle was night and day.
I do think any concerns about the console market having one strong high-end console maker are way, way overblown. The console market itself has much larger issues on the economic side, and it has nothing to do with where the players who are in the console space are playing. I recommend reading
Matthew Ball's piece on the state of gaming in 2024. Its a VERY long read, and while I do not agree with some of his speculative conclusion, and even some of his analysis, I do think the starting data that he drops here is a fantastic encapsulation of the financial issues the industry is facing in the next 2-4 years. Gaming as a whole is larger in terms of revenue and profit now, more than at any other point in time in industry history, and that is true even with the console market basically being unchanged in terms of size since the PS3/360/Wii generation, only exception being the collapse of the Xbox audience. In summary, the industry has made more and more money overall while Microsoft's console audience has steadily and consistently shrunk. And as far as the ability to make money in the GP eco. devs have long accepted the fiscal reality of releasing on Xbox. Make a game, tell MS you're not launching there due to concerns with breaking even on costs related to porting, and if your project is looking good, MS comes back to you with a solid GP deal from their 3rd party GP slush fund ($1b annual). And if MS doesn't show up, you skip Xbox, and if your game does well on the other platforms, MS shows up with an even better GP deal than they would've given you the first time around. Again - its not our or the consumers money thats being burnt so, no complaints there.
I think the thing that gets lost the most in these online discussions is just the reality of gaming in the modern age. We are well aware that most enthusiast places outside of reddit, so forums + twitter, are mostly users who are somewhere between 28-45, who have been gaming since the 90s, and who prefer gaming in very particular ways. Thats all well and good, but gaming is so, so much larger than that now. So much money is being made outside of the console ecosystem. Sure, its still the lionshare of revenue for AAA titles targeting what we label as the 'core' gaming demo, but mobile games and transmedia titles are making bank right now. The reality is, Xbox has been a gradually weakening console platform for devs to sell games on for quite some time now. Its not new for us. Its for sure new for the enthusiast crowds like on forums and twitter, but its been an established business reality for 4 years now, and nothing on the horizon, including their upcoming plans that are gonna be talked about (and yes, some more folks have been better briefed on this today) are really set to change that.
I think every platform holder is right to be looking for ways to increase revenue and get the industry and console gaming portion of the games industry back into 'Growth' (again,
read the Matt Ball piece), and we're gonna see some expansion plans from all the platform holders that is gonna feel very different strategy-wise than what we're used to. I don't necessarily think its a bad thing, but change is always scary, especially for the audience. Roping back in the first thing I spoke on, I think the thing that devs are more concerned with is that, if the industry is this profitable, and it largely is, how come we just aren't seeing it in our paychecks or job security? So when I speak to more and more game devs, all i'm hearing, more than i've ever heard before, are increased calls to unionize. I couldn't be happier for it either.