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[ÆMNE22A!C]

Its an interesting thought experiment..what if we KNEW (like >90% certainty) it was gonna hit, just the precise location was in question? Probably have a sense of the belt around the earth at risk, but wouldn't know where until just a few days out, maybe less.

Would it trigger a world war ahead of time? If China thought they were gonna take it right in a major population center, would they pre-emptively attack so no one else could exploit their weakness? What about the US, India, Russia? Would it be mass panic and flight out of any projected impact path, even if its thousands of miles long and any specific place has a low risk, or do folks just wait until mere hours to flee a specific place? How far away would you need to go?

I doubt this thing could create waves across the planet, but certainly if it hit near a coast that area would be fucked.

Or if there was 'just' a 20% risk of impact, but if you hit it with nukes then there would be a 90% chance of smaller, but potentially multiple, impacts. Which is better or worse?

They'll use DIW via systems "in orbit" is my guess

 

[March Climber]

Pretty obvious how this one ends up, probability keeps ticking up until they have to admit that yes it's going to hit Earth.

Then Elon steps in with a Starship fleet to push that piece of shit out of the way, potentially saving millions. Meanwhile shitheads on here post about how he didn't engineer every feature of Starship and really had nothing to do with anything and that Twitter is going to go under any second now but this time for real because Elon's not very smart. Haha.

It's almost as if he is an actual human being capable of good actions and bad actions...and not just one or the other like both sides like to make it seem.

You can be seen as both a piece of shit and the savior of earth. I can point people to some anime that easily illustrate this.

 

[ÆMNE22A!C]

Damn this Elon Idolslisme with a straight face is scary to see.

 

[sono]

Where is the 98% group standing

 

[Zathalus]

Bunkers for something of this size will probably be of limited usefulness, assuming we track it on the way in. You know the impact site ahead of time to evacuate. A bunker sounds good, but not being anywhere near the site of impact sounds even better.

 

[E-Cat]

Don’t look up

 

[jason10mm]

They'll use DIW via systems "in orbit" is my guess

I doubt we have ANYTHING in orbit what would do jack shit to a 90 meter wide meteor. At least in time to do anything other than make one big hit into 3-4 moderate hits. You'd really want to have a laser heat up one spot to create out-gassing to gradually push it off course, but you'd have to intercept it months out, then match it's trajectory, and then have the juice to fire a laser long term. Maybe you could just focus sunlight but then you'd need even more time.

 

[ÆMNE22A!C]

They have the tech. Question is if they want to use it. Just IMHO.

 

[ÆMNE22A!C]

Hell for what we know they can have the tech on the Moon. And what tech is a guess as well. Imma let myself out.

 

[Dacvak]

Can we maybe speed this up by a few years and just get this shit over with?

 

[Rival]

At least it will be after gta6 launches

But I was going to wait for the remaster!

 

[Insane Metal]

That's a really small one though. It could potentially just evaporate in Earth's atmosphere, depending on its composition.

 

[Urban]

As a Child i rememered reading about it. But it was 2034 if i recall correctly. Btw that was in Year 1998

 

[Trilobit]

Wonder what would happen if it obliterates the moon instead…

 

[Hookshot]

If it hits somewhere remote people will move on, if it takes out a city people will hopefully get investing in space defence tech so it can’t happen again.

 

[RJMacready73]

So the real reason Musk is moving full steam ahead with these giant starships is to put him and his rich buddies in orbit cause he's got the inside scoop this thing is gonna hit...

 

[xrnzaaas]

Don’t look up

Good movie if it wasn't for the absolutely idiotic ending.

Personally I'm in favor of the idea that a new World War would start shortly before the impact. That's assuming the asteroid would be a threat to US or China, either from direct impact or from being inside the range of the blast wave. Surely they would try to alter its trajectory with nukes or some space tech, hurting their "neighbors" as a side bonus. Best we can hope in a situation like this is that based on calculations Africa or northern Russia are picked as targets - no one would care.

 

[Dr.Guru of Peru]

Its up to 2.2% now if you click the link in the OP:

Asteroid 2024 YR4 – latest updates – Rocket Science

News from the edge of gravity

blogs.esa.int

I think we ought to start panicking.

 

[diffusionx]

 

[jason10mm]

Its up to 2.2% now if you click the link in the OP:

Asteroid 2024 YR4 – latest updates – Rocket Science

News from the edge of gravity

blogs.esa.int

I think we ought to start panicking.

Damn, and right after the release of Winds of Winter, no less....

 

[Pejo]

Hey asteroid 2024 YR4....

Spoiler

Don't you feel stupid now?

On a serious note though, this is cool that we can be this prepared for an event that "might" occur in almost a decade in the future.

Maybe it'll ping pong off that space Tesla.

 

[The Sum of Zero]

Hitting the Northern or Southern hemisphere? The south is mainly water so it would just be a big splash. The north has my house so not here please.

The current prediction, IF it hits.

 

[Vaquilla]

So it almost certainly won't hit us.

And even if it does, it could just burn up in the atmosphere as its not that big.

Not worth stressing about.

 

[I collect VHS tapes]

So it almost certainly won't hit us.

And even if it does, it could just burn up in the atmosphere as its not that big.

Not worth stressing about.

This assumes that their math isn’t wrong

The same amount they’ve already admitted was wrong multiple times and had to revise

 

[jason10mm]

The current prediction, IF it hits.

Meteor is racist, confirmed!

 

[Vaquilla]

This assumes that their math isn’t wrong

The same amount they’ve already admitted was wrong multiple times and had to revise

Could be wrong in the direction of "the chances are overestimated" too though.

 

[I collect VHS tapes]

Could be wrong in the direction of "the chances are overestimated" too though.

Absolutely, however, the last four revisions I’ve seen have all improved the odds. Hasn’t gone the other way once.

 

[Heimdall_Xtreme]

2022 YR4 asteroid. NASA just upgraded the probability to 1.9% from 1.6% yesterday.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 – latest updates – Rocket Science

News from the edge of gravity

blogs.esa.int

It’s 40-90 meters in diameter. So would be like a large yield thermonuclear bomb going off where it hits in terms of energy.

Thermo... What??
In Spanish or English simple... What that mean ??

 

[Vaquilla]

Absolutely, however, the last four revisions I’ve seen have all improved the odds. Hasn’t gone the other way once.

It's 7 years away, there could be countless recalculations between now and then, and they could easily go the other way.

At the end of the day, it's not worth spending your precious time and energy on worrying about something that probably won't happen nearly a decade from now.

Worrying about "what if" will ruin your life. Just forget about it and focus on the here and now, you'll be much happier.

 

[I collect VHS tapes]

It's 7 years away, there could be countless recalculations between now and then, and they could easily go the other way.

At the end of the day, it's not worth spending your precious time and energy on worrying about something that probably won't happen nearly a decade from now.

Worrying about "what if" will ruin your life. Just forget about it and focus on the here and now, you'll be much happier.

I think you’re projecting. I have no fear around it. I think it’s just interesting because I took a few years of astronomy back in college. I actually think going out to a meteor would be sorta epic. Reminds me of Melancholia.

I understand if you need a cope tho. You do you bro

 

[lughnasadh123]

Oh thank god, it's been awhile since the last bit of impending doom news. I'm only going to worry if Morgan Freeman gets in as President.

 

[Vaquilla]

I think you’re projecting. I have no fear around it. I think it’s just interesting because I took a few years of astronomy back in college. I actually think going out to a meteor would be sorta epic. Reminds me of Melancholia.

I understand if you need a cope tho. You do you bro

Ah, so you're just being needlessly rude as opposed to anxious.
Welcome to ignore.

 

[sono]

Knowing

• January 7 – A Swan River Seaplanes Cessna 208 Caravan crashed into the water at Rottnest Island, Western Australia, Australia. Out of the seven occupants onboard, three people were killed including the pilot and three others were injured.
• January 29 – A Light Air Services Beechcraft 1900, that was carrying oil workers, crashed shortly after takeoff from GPOC Unity Airstrip in South Sudan. Out of the 21 occupants onboard, 20 were killed.
• January 29 – In the 2025 Potomac River mid-air collision, American Eagle Flight 5342, a Bombardier CRJ700 operated by PSA Airlines, collided with a Sikorsky UH-60L over the Potomac River, killing all 64 people onboard the CRJ700 and all 3 aboard the UH-60L.

22nd December 2032

EVERYONE ELSE

 

[The Sum of Zero]

It's 7 years away, there could be countless recalculations between now and then, and they could easily go the other way.

At the end of the day, it's not worth spending your precious time and energy on worrying about something that probably won't happen nearly a decade from now.

Worrying about "what if" will ruin your life. Just forget about it and focus on the here and now, you'll be much happier.

This. They'll get more information by observing it during the next flyby in 2028 and will be able to refine its orbit better.

Until then, worrying about it is pointless because they just don't have that much information. A reminder, this thing was only discovered in December, two days after it passed by Earth.

 

[AGRacing]

Wow. Thats dramatically higher odds than you being able to buy a 5090.

 

[kutthoat5150]

Trump about to Tariff asteroids as they don't get to hit America for free without paying

 

[T-0800]

I'm hoping to retire in 7 years so this checks out.

 

[YCoCg]

Damn this Elon Idolslisme with a straight face is scary to see.

Elon Musk is one of the greatest Americans to walk the earth! He's a genius, he posts memes and he's an epic gamer!

 

[EviLore]

 

[John Bilbo]

Terrifying yet fascinating!

 

[BlackTron]

Is the chance really 67% but they're going to let us know in months of daily .4% increments, like Sony with PS2 numbers?

 

[Lukaku's First Touch]

This will be crazy to see filmed in 8k.

 

[Dr.Morris79]

Perhaps take a look at what Mars stands for and hence maybe don't take occupy Mars literally.

*Scratches head; what happened to our Moon. Sure losing the technology can happen. I spill my coffee, I can relate.

Why skip our Moon.

And hey isn't "occupy" at tad... presumptuous and claiming?

Maybe focus on your death trap Tesla's first I suppose?

Just a thought

But I want to go to Mars! God dammit!

 

[Jenov]

The current prediction, IF it hits.

Wow it might hit our new Gulf of America though

 

[Hookshot]

Is the chance really 67% but they're going to let us know in months of daily .4% increments, like Sony with PS2 numbers?

Sony will sell 10 million PS2 to themselves and then fire them at it beating the Switch and knocking it into Nintendo HQ

 

[Vlodril]

We should be able to push it away since we know it's trajectory and all (even if it comes close since the odds are so low right now). Wasn't there an experiment where we did just that a couple of years ago?

The problem is with things we can't see coming.

 

[ClanOfNone]

Klendathu has some ‘splaining to do.

 

[nkarafo]

Big splash = huge wave. Coastal populations are enormous everywhere.

It's a very small asteroid. It says the impact will be as powerful as a nuclear bomb. They already did plenty of nuclear tests in the ocean decades ago and i don't remember any of them causing anything close to a tsunami or something.

 

[Idleyes]

I'll do my damnedest to fuck all your moms before the asteroid wipes us out.

 

[Madflavor]

It's a very small asteroid. It says the impact will be as powerful as a nuclear bomb.

Asteroids are fucking scary.