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[Men_in_Boxes]

There have been countless threads, articles, conversations about the "oversaturated GAAS market". The topic almost universally stems from "Hey, these GAAS games just got their servers shut off. That must mean the market is saturated."

AAA Single Player (SP) games have always been viewed as the relatively safe bet. If you make a bigger budget single player game with some combination of well known IP, open world, critical acclaim...you were almost certain to perform well financially.

The last few years may have put that idea in question...

Avowed
Dragon Age: The Veilgaurd
Indiana Jones
Hellblade II
Star War Outlaws
Immortals of Aveum
Alan Wake 2
Final Fantasy Rebirth
Final Fantasy XVI
Marvel Midnight Suns
Avatar The Frontiers of Pandora
Dead Space

That list of games reads like "good bet" titles when they were greenlit and all performed worse than expected. Obviously, there are still a bunch of successful titles in this space. Kingdom Come Deliverance II is already in the red and just sold over 2 million copies. Black Myth Wukong did crazy numbers. Baldurs Gate 3 etc....This is not to suggest we're on a bubble, but I think it's time we start looking at this part of the industry. Does it feel less stable to you?

 

[nemiroff]

Or you could use well performing titles to show how well the segment fares...

 

[Raven117]

Lots of these games were "greenlit" likely during Covid. There was just a different mindset in those days. Couple that with most publishers wanting to hit "fortnight" money, the focus on single player wasn't there.

We are seeing the pendulum swing back. As there is money to be made in good SP games...more than a failed GaaS attempt anyway.

 

[Guilty_AI]

weekly box man coping thread

 

[Sinfulgore]

Many modern AAA single-player games aren't very good(quality and performance-wise) so most people will skip them at launch. There are so many games out now that unless you have FOMO, there isn't any reason to pick them up on day one. Gone are the days where people will just buy whatever the latest game is as soon as it's released.

 

[Clear]

There have been countless threads, articles, conversations about the "oversaturated GAAS market". The topic almost universally stems from "Hey, these GAAS games just got their servers shut off. That must mean the market is saturated."

AAA Single Player (SP) games have always been viewed as the relatively safe bet. If you make a bigger budget single player game with some combination of well known IP, open world, critical acclaim...you were almost certain to perform well financially.

The last few years may have put that idea in question...

Avowed
Dragon Age: The Veilgaurd
Indiana Jones
Hellblade II
Star War Outlaws
Immortals of Aveum
Alan Wake 2
Final Fantasy Rebirth
Final Fantasy XVI
Marvel Midnight Suns
Avatar The Frontiers of Pandora
Dead Space

That list of games reads like "good bet" titles when they were greenlit and all performed worse than expected. Obviously, there are still a bunch of successful titles in this space. Kingdom Come Deliverance II is already in the red and just sold over 2 million copies. Black Myth Wukong did crazy numbers. Baldurs Gate 3 etc....This is not to suggest we're on a bubble, but I think it's time we start looking at this part of the industry. Does it feel less stable to you?

Maybe they were good bets when they were greenlit but after how their parent franchises have been run into the ground... not so much.

 

[jshackles]

These companies should probably just all make extraction shooters, obviously

 

[Bartski]

no

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

These companies should probably just all make extraction shooters, obviously

I just think both markets are relatively interesting to look at. It feels like there have been almost as many AAA SP flops recently as there have been GAAS flops. That ratio doesn't make sense to me as SP was typically viewed as the much safer bet - despite the lower ceiling.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Wokeness happened to AAA and it destroyed the Western AAA industry like a cancer growing unchecked for years

 

[ProtoByte]

As a viable market? No. The products have just been less sufficient than previous gens.

In fact, I think the thirst for a truly new and truly cutting edge, high quality gameplay and writing SP game is creating a massive set of opportunities.

 

[intbal]

No need to worry.
I just bought Saints Row 2 off the Xbox store.
That should keep single player games afloat for a couple more years.

 

[Gonzito]

If DEI doesnt die then yes

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

No, more like Sloppy SP games with big budgets are dying

Just like Sloppy GaaS games with big budgets are dying

Both are good outcomes to cleanse the industry of Slop

 

[RetroGamingUK]

American AAA is dying

Japanese, Chinese and Korean AAA is doing better than ever

 

[Guilty_AI]

I just think both markets are relatively interesting to look at. It feels like there have been almost as many AAA SP flops recently as there have been GAAS flops. That ratio doesn't make sense to me as SP was typically viewed as the much safer bet - despite the lower ceiling.

-GAAS are expensive and the market for it is highly competitive.
-SP doesn't have to be expensive and the market is generally open to new ones.

There's your difference. If you invest high amounts of money in SP slop no one wants, yeah, it'll fail. If you're more careful with your market evaluation and budget, theres a great chance you'll find success.

Same can't be said for GAAS. You can make an excellent game, with innovative ideas, lots of player feedback, and then no one wants to play it because the public you're targeting is busy getting their dailies on fortnite and doesn't even want to try anything else.

To put in another manner:
-SP players are generally more willing to play different things and try new stuff. Natural considering SP games are mostly made to end so they have to constantly look for more.
-GAAS players create comfort zones in their selected games and rarely try anything else. Also natural considering GAAS is designed to have that effect on people, to keep them playing that and only that.

 

[Flabagast]

the american AAA single player market is in trouble yes, crushed under very mid productions and very high cost, and not willing to take any risk. The European and Asian markets are faring better than ever

 

[foamdino]

Western hyped-up mega-budget games seem to be in trouble due to over committing on the funding/scope and ignoring the fans of prior entries (FF16 should have been turn-based, Veilguard should have leaned into the dark fantasy of DA and shouldn't have been an action game etc)

JRPGs in general have smaller scope & budgets and are doing very fine, in fact there has been a glut of critical and commercial success over the last few years in that space - not all doom and gloom.

 

[HRK69]

Wokeness happened to AAA and it destroyed the Western AAA industry like a cancer growing unchecked for years

Blaming "wokeness" for the decline of Western AAA gaming ignores the real issues: corporate greed, live-service bloat, rushed development cycles, and a prioritization of monetization over creativity

The problem isn't inclusivity or diversity; it's studios chasing trends and profits at the cost of passion and artistry.

 

[Alebrije]

Nope there a great SP games like

stellar blade
wukong
lies of pi
Kingdom come 2
Baldurs gate 3
Stalker 2

For me those are AAA its not about budget but gameplay/graphics/lore-story

The problem is the industry is oversaturated of all kind of games and a lot of them fail for different reasons. Bit we also have more great AAA SP games than ever.

 

[Zathalus]

Recency bias. Go back 10, 15, even 20 years, and you had AAA games that underperformed. Beyond Good & Evil, Daikatana, Haze, Sleeping Dogs, Epic Mickey 2, Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning, Lair, MadWorld, Vampire: The Masquerade – Bloodlines, Spec Ops The Line, System Shock 2, Prey, Sunset Overdrive, and Alan Wake are all games I remember off the top of my head that did poorly commercially.

Of the games listed, only Dragon Age: The Veilgaurd actually comes from a video game series that sold somewhat decently. The inclusion of Final Fantasy is also a bit odd, it may of not met the expectations of Square, but not meeting their expectations has become a meme, based on sales numbers it is likely around 4-6 million sold.

Just to compare, single player games (or heavily single player focused) that sold well over the past 3 years (not including anything Nintendo either):

Elden Ring
Hogwarts Legacy
Black myth Wukong
FF XVI
Baldur's Gate 3
Starfield
Dying Light 2
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord
Monster Hunter Rise
Dragon's Dogma 2
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2
Satisfactory
Manor Lords
Resident Evil 4
Armored Core VI: Fires of Rubicon
V Rising
God of War Ragnarok
Spider-Man 2
Horizon Forbidden West
Stalker 2

 

[MiguelItUp]

No. I don't think the issues are the "single player market", I think the issues are internal development, workflow, and overall management. I feel like so many games may be released a bit too soon, etc.

 

[GudOlRub]

Dead Space Remake supposedly sold just as well as Alan Wake 2 and Silent Hill 2, it's just that EA probably expected Resident Evil numbers instead of "normal" AAA horror game numbers.
Silent Hill 2 was seemingly an immediate success, Alan Wake 2 took its time but that has been Remedy's MO so it was never a big issue for them it seems.

In this particular case I guess that for EA this horror genre money isn't really worth it, Motive being stuck on working on Battlefield to see if they can finally find their next live-service golden egg makes more business sense unfortunately.

 

[captainnapalm]

Still breaks my heart that Guardians of the Galaxy did so poorly.

 

[GigaBowser]

hars been for 10 years

 

[PeteBull]

If u exclude bad woke games like avoved, da:v, sw outlaws etc, singleplayer market is just fine, so 0 worries, let those woke shitty games bomb hard otherwise we will keep getting low quality products, gotta let publishers feel consequences of their bad choices

 

[Hudo]

Still breaks my heart that Guardians of the Galaxy did so poorly.

Got it on sale because it's a game by Eidos and Guardians of the Galaxy is the only Marvel shit that I actually somewhat like.

It's quite the fun game, I have to say.

 

[MagusMajul]

Doom The Dark-Ages

is on it's way so I think no.

 

[The artful mincer]

There have been countless threads, articles, conversations about the "oversaturated GAAS market". The topic almost universally stems from "Hey, these GAAS games just got their servers shut off. That must mean the market is saturated."

AAA Single Player (SP) games have always been viewed as the relatively safe bet. If you make a bigger budget single player game with some combination of well known IP, open world, critical acclaim...you were almost certain to perform well financially.

The last few years may have put that idea in question...

Avowed
Dragon Age: The Veilgaurd
Indiana Jones
Hellblade II
Star War Outlaws
Immortals of Aveum
Alan Wake 2
Final Fantasy Rebirth
Final Fantasy XVI
Marvel Midnight Suns
Avatar The Frontiers of Pandora
Dead Space

That list of games reads like "good bet" titles when they were greenlit and all performed worse than expected. Obviously, there are still a bunch of successful titles in this space. Kingdom Come Deliverance II is already in the red and just sold over 2 million copies. Black Myth Wukong did crazy numbers. Baldurs Gate 3 etc....This is not to suggest we're on a bubble, but I think it's time we start looking at this part of the industry. Does it feel less stable to you?

No don't be ridiculous a bunch of those games are even profitable.

Single player games are arguably more stable than ever due to digital stores giving them infinite shelf life.

Capcom profits barely dipped last year almost entirely on there catalogue sales.

Even if a single player game bombs it can still make revenue with minimal if any maintenance costs.

A GAAS bomb is potentially FAR worse as the it requires constant money and may even have to be pulled if they can't cover those costs.

 

[Wildebeest]

They said Alan Wake 2 was profitable. You would have to be on something to think that games like Veilguard, Midnight Suns, Callisto Protocol, and Aveum were "safe bets". Veilguard had a very long and troubled development. Midnight Suns was an experimental superhero visual novel dating sim game when there had never been such a high budget dating sim type game before. Callisto and Aveum had massively bloated budgets for new studios with no track record.

 

[Hudo]

Dead Space Remake supposedly sold just as well as Alan Wake 2 and Silent Hill 2, it's just that EA probably expected Resident Evil numbers instead of "normal" AAA horror game numbers.
Silent Hill 2 was seemingly an immediate success, Alan Wake 2 took its time but that has been Remedy's MO so it was never a big issue for them it seems.

In this particular case I guess that for EA this horror genre money isn't really worth it, Motive being stuck on working on Battlefield to see if they can finally find their next live-service golden egg makes more business sense unfortunately.

It also doesn't help that Andrew Wilson is a retard. The guy is coasting on EA Sports carrying the whole fucking company, via predatory monetization schemes, for more than a decade now and completely mismanaged all the other IPs they have.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Western hyped-up mega-budget games seem to be in trouble due to over committing on the funding/scope and ignoring the fans of prior entries (FF16 should have been turn-based, Veilguard should have leaned into the dark fantasy of DA and shouldn't have been an action game etc)

JRPGs in general have smaller scope & budgets and are doing very fine, in fact there has been a glut of critical and commercial success over the last few years in that space - not all doom and gloom.

How is FF16 in trouble? It sold way more than DA:V

Don’t lump them together

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

-GAAS are expensive and the market for it is highly competitive.
-SP doesn't have to be expensive and the market is generally open to new ones.

Too low resolution to engage with.

There's your difference. If you invest high amounts of money in SP slop no one wants, yeah, it'll fail. If you're more careful with your market evaluation and budget, theres a great chance you'll find success.

Same can't be said for GAAS. You can make an excellent game, with innovative ideas, lots of player feedback, and then no one wants to play it because the public you're targeting is busy getting their dailies on fortnite and doesn't even want to try anything else.

I don't think this is the case. I heard Jeff Gerstmann say recently "Rumbleverse was a great game and it flopped...so the market must be saturated".

There's three parts to what he said.
1. Rumbleverse was a great game.
2. It flopped.
3. So the market must be saturated.

2 is obviously correct, but 1 and 3 are highly debatable. I suspect Jeff Gerstman, a SP gamer, doesn't like contemplating 1 or 3. His math is elementary. "Well I liked it so it must be great." There are more evolved thinkers who think "Well, just because I liked it doesn't mean it hit different personality types in the same way." He doesn't have that. Many don't have that.

To put in another manner:
-SP players are generally more willing to play different things and try new stuff. Natural considering SP games are mostly made to end so they have to constantly look for more.

Creativity in the SP space has been bankrupt for years. It's all sequels and established IP today. You can judge the SP mindset based on how NeoGAF treats GAAS. I've played far more SP games than the SP ideologues have played GAAS.

-GAAS players create comfort zones in their selected games and rarely try anything else. Also natural considering GAAS is designed to have that effect on people, to keep them playing that and only that.

Too many massive GAAS launches for that to be true. Massive launches with quick player drop means that GAAS gamers like trying new games but will not put up with an inferior experience.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

No don't be ridiculous a bunch of those games are even profitable.

I never said they weren't. I said they performed below expectations, which is true.

 

[cormack12]

 

[Guilty_AI]

Creativity in the SP space has been bankrupt for years. It's all sequels and established IP today. You can judge the SP mindset based on how NeoGAF treats GAAS. I've played far more SP games than the SP ideologues have played GAAS.

No you haven't, i've confirmed this before too when i asked what imm-sims you played and you just named a bunch of gamepass stuff. Go look into successful SP games from the last 5 years you'll see a healthy mix of everything

Too many massive GAAS launches for that to be true. Massive launches with quick player drop means that GAAS gamers like trying new games but will not put up with an inferior experience.

Yeah, because they're too entrenched in their comfort zone to even consider investing time into a new game. When you got to level XYZ in a GAAS and has 2736 skins - some likely bought with real money - you become a lot less willing to start a different second-game-job that'll likely impede you from playing the previous one due to time constraints.

 

[Danjin44]

You just don’t stop making stupid threads.

 

[Wolves hunt in packs]

There's always troubles, but thankfully there are enough good games to enjoy.

 

[LectureMaster]

 

[nowhat]

I opted for the first poll option, but it's still missing the "No, OP is retarded" option.

 

[64gigabyteram]

weekly box man coping thread

he just got banned from iconera so he's really feeling it now

 

[nowhat]

he just got banned from iconera so he's really feeling it now

If IconEra can do it, so can we! YES WE CAN!

 

[64gigabyteram]

If IconEra can do it, so can we! YES WE CAN!

mods please

 

[Gamer_By_Proxy]

It’s the non-established GaaS games that are in trouble. It’s gonna continue to be a money pit and big losers. Fairgames is probably DoA and Marathon will probably launch on life support.

 

[HRK69]

 

[Kacho]

he just got banned from iconera so he's really feeling it now

men in boxes is an iconera poster...? did you know this, homey? adamsapple

 

[Gamer_By_Proxy]

So goddamn funny

Is icon era more like us or the blue hair era? Haven't been there.

 

[Guilty_AI]

Is icon era more like us or the blue hair era? Haven't been there.

neither, its where all the major sony warriors went to

 

[64gigabyteram]

Is icon era more like us or the blue hair era? Haven't been there.

playstation fanboy forum

 

[adamsapple]

men in boxes is an iconera poster...? did you know this, homey? adamsapple

Oh shit they banned Men_In_Boxes too? The *PRIMARY* Sony GaaS supporter? Banning me, I can understand, but MIB too?

What the fuck do those people want, lol.

edit: Also you'd be surprised at the cross-over, there's a handful of active posters here who are also active posters there still today.