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Media Create Sales: Week 28, 2015 (Jul 06 - Jul 12)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I think this a major one. When analyzing decisions we tend to only look at Japan but games sell WW.
Yes, margins become very slim at $20.
So from one of EA's fiscal calls, they mentioned their margin on full priced $60 retail games is 60% versus 70% (walled garden platforms) to 95% (Origin) on digital when explaining their margin expansion and why it would go up pretty slowly past 60%. This means if you're selling a $60 retail game and have similar arrangements to EA, you're bringing in $36.
From talking to someone in the industry, by comparison, unless you have some kind of special deal (which you usually don't), a $20 retail game nets you a $3 margin. This is about the same as what you earn on a $5 Steam game, which is why you see major publisher titles bottom out at about $20 at retail while they bottom out around $5 on Steam. This is also why publishers are quite fond of long tail digital sales, since when they're selling $40 or especially $20 copies, they're making *a lot* more money than they do with the console equivalents, even if it's not so different at full price.
Now, this part I'm not sure of since I don't work in the industry, but judging by what happens, I'm guessing there are two exceptions here. One is the scenario where you take a downloadable game, sell it in a box, but inside the box is a download code. I can't imagine any scenario where people would do this unless the first parties decided that this would have a notably lower licensing fee. The second is, I'm suspicious that the Greatest Hits line, given the price point they start at, and the fact you have to actually earn a spot on those lines, have a reduced licensing fee as well in exchange for providing low cost content to help onboard late-gen adopters.
Yeah, there are a lot of little incentives platform holders can provide to essentially ease people into either making games for their platforms at all or making games for the platform exclusively. It's quite rare for a "money hat" to actually consist of handing over cash, but they will do all sorts of things ranging from license fee reductions to comarketing to even things like this where they can really add up meaningfully to a small developer. Similarly when selling bundles, they actually buy the copies from the publisher so that the publisher has a guaranteed number of sales for their game.Great post, I just want to add that Sony also offer to localize Japanese games into Traditional Chinese for Asian market, which help a game like Yakuza Zero that sold ~300k (I only counted total from their weeks on Top 20) to 500k which I think is also a very attractive incentive and very good for me personally since I'm Chinese.
One thing I do want to hit on for why we don't see everyone taking these nice sounding incentives though (or only taking the ones where they can still be multiplatform) is that for mid-sized or especially bigger titles, the math just doesn't work out.
Let's take Dragon Ball: XenoVerse for example and use some rough math here.
First let's start with ideal situations for sales, but bias it heavily toward PlayStation. We know the game sold 300,000 copies on PC, and let's just really low ball it and say it sold 300,000 between 360 and XB1. We'll also start by setting everything to being sold at full price and adjust for this later.
300,000 PC copies * $50 * 0.7 + 300,000 XB1/360 copies * $60 * 0.6 = $10,500,000 + $12,600,000 = $23,100,000
Now let's say they only made half of that due to the fact not everything sold at full price, setting us at $11,550,000.
Now let's take the fact it shipped 2 million copies and pretend every copy was sold, and that Sony, if the game was exclusive, would have given them a $6 license fee reduction.
1,400,000 copies * $6 = $8,400,000
So even assuming a very high 70% sales bias to PS4/PS3, a very generous license fee break for a game that was coming to PlayStation anyway, and an improbably high margin decay given how fast the 2 million copies shipped out, it still makes no sense to make it exclusive because you're leaving a big chunk of money on the table. When we use a more realistic forecasting, the multiplatform release becomes very attractive.
Now, if your game is basically only releasing in Japan (or selling such a high percentage there it doesn't really matter otherwise), then it makes a lot of sense to hit up Sony for whatever they're willing to give you to do what you were probably going to do anyway, and even then they'll often let you do an international PC despite this since they know third parties want multiplatform money and the audience overlap isn't so strong as with another console.
Not that this actually has too much to do with what you just said, but I just wanted to use this as a jumping off point since I've seen a lot of people ask over time about why some games would take this (say your everyday niche Japanese titles) versus why others wouldn't (Kingdom Hearts 3, Final Fantasy XV) and the answer is basically that those games are going to have very notable sales in North America where the Xbox One is strong and at the sales volume they're aiming to hit, it would be incredibly expensive to off-set that with incentives. They're also not as likely to want to do that since they're limiting brand growth on brands they want to continually become bigger as opposed to something where the developer is pretty resigned to "This will sell about X hundred thousand units forever."
It's possible that there might not actually be incentives and they just view it as a way to entice people to buy more copies of their indie game. I'd guess at most it gets Sony to market it more on PSN for free and consider paying you to put it into PlayStation Plus given how infrequently the offer is taken up by anything larger than a small indie title.
Another fun read, thanks!
Side question:
Never have thought about this before, but does Dengeki include bundled software in these figures?
Side question:
Code:
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| Model | This Week | Week (%) | FY 2015 | FY (%) |
------------------------------------------------------
| 3DS | 965.021 | 84.20% | 3.704.666 | 48.50% |
| Vita | 82.316 | 7.20% | 1.200.616 | 15.70% |
| Wii U | 42.724 | 3.70% | 959.394 | 12.60% |
| PS4 | 26.204 | 2.30% | 897.072 | 11.70% |
| PS3 | 25.523 | 2.20% | 800.285 | 10.50% |
| PSP | 3.664 | 0.30% | 58.731 | 0.80% |
| XB1 | 313 | 0.00% | 18.897 | 0.20% |
------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 1.145.765 | 100.00% | 7.639.661 | 100.00% |
------------------------------------------------------Never have thought about this before, but does Dengeki include bundled software in these figures?
As a follow up on last week's discussion, Capcom has confirmed that Street Fighter V is a service game: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1081462
You pay $60 up front, you get balance updates and new mechanics for free. New fighters are constantly added as well, and you either earn new fighters with in game currency, or purchase them with microtransaction currency.
If you've ever played a MOBA this should be a familiar system for you (sans the up front cost).
The microtransaction currency is also called Zenny so they seem to be taking Monster Hunter terminology as the basis for their f2p currency descriptions. Just going to put it out there that this is a tad suspicious.
You pay $60 up front, you get balance updates and new mechanics for free. New fighters are constantly added as well, and you either earn new fighters with in game currency, or purchase them with microtransaction currency.
If you've ever played a MOBA this should be a familiar system for you (sans the up front cost).
The microtransaction currency is also called Zenny so they seem to be taking Monster Hunter terminology as the basis for their f2p currency descriptions. Just going to put it out there that this is a tad suspicious.
Does their mobile stuff also use Zenny?
Do we know if MHF2 is F2P? Seems like they're doubling down on their known IP really hard.
The rumor was the game was free 2 play and made on Unreal Engine 4 by Capcom Korea for PS4/PC.
I'm kind of curious if they might also try messing around with the expansion based re-release model on the regular games though when they hit next generation.
Do we know how much influence Nintendo had on their DLC practices with MH4G/U which as far as I am aware offer extensive, free support that really beefs up the release (if it had added monsters, you'd basically have had a G2/U2 worth of additions)? I know that NoA tends to tailor its DLC from published titles to suit the Americas and be less "repulsive" based on general conception (like HyWa).
If none, then we've already been seeing this transition within MH. Not unsurprisingly, the titles that they are trying to sell now are more spin-offs and things not possible with the base-game, rather than more of the base-game. (As well as in general trying to expand the brand to kids and action fans with Stories and X respectively.) MH5 may well end up being the only release of the mainline coming down the road, and then off-shoots making up the space of the "re-release".
Finally some sense in terms of DLC - They should also give players cosmetics as much cheaper alternative things to unlock as well and I think you'd be surprised what kind of things people spend a few dollars on. I've played a lot of Dota 2, and although the Compedium is the one major type of transaction I do. But I do occasionally spend a few dollars to unlock a set item chest that I get in game.
Ah I see. Nevermind then.
I would guess this was Capcom's invention in an effort to reduce used game trade-in, which - as far as I can tell - is a much more significant problem for publishers in Japan than in the West.
Eolz
Member
Wondering since SFV is going the "you can unlock this for free by playing enough, but also pay for it" route for SFV.
Since MH4 DLC is free, could they do some sort of similar stuff for MH5? If you're at some rank/progression part in the game, DLC is free, if not, you must pay? Or would that be too risky for the mainline MonHun audience?
Since MH4 DLC is free, could they do some sort of similar stuff for MH5? If you're at some rank/progression part in the game, DLC is free, if not, you must pay? Or would that be too risky for the mainline MonHun audience?
MonHun is risky because having a character in a fighting game unless the character in question is down right broken wouldn't effect you, since you obviously prioritized someone else to unlock. While skipping certain aspects of MonHun because of money would piss people off
I think that's basically what we expect as Niro and I outlined above. The curiosity was elsewhere on whether the current MH4U DLC practices were Capcoms doing or Nintendos... Either way it worked out well for both though.
Solid legs.
That's first week of Sumeragi? A little surprised to see a stronger PS3 opening again... not that I should be.
Can anyone recall Week 29 predictions?
Btw, is possible for the game reaching the million mark before the month or so?
Given the series isn't leaving Asia anymore, Capcom would've been better off making a Vita version.
This is the game's PS4 debut too, which should logically push sales a little higher. Here's how Basara 3 Utage did for comparison (MC).
02./00. [PS3] Sengoku Basara 3: Utage <ACT> (Capcom) {2011.11.10} (¥5.800) - 124.197 / NEW
06./00. [WII] Sengoku Basara 3: Utage <ACT> (Capcom) {2011.11.10} (¥4.990) - 50.747 / NEW
This is why I'm concerned for the future of Shin Sangoku Musou.
NX will save the Musou franchise. NX will save everything. Do you see that cat on the three that can't go down? Do you think the police will save it? Firemen? Superman? No one of them can. But NX will save that cat. And, just after saving that cat, NX will save Shin Sangoku Musou. Don't worry Zhuge, everything will be safe.
Seriously now, I suppose Koei Tecmo will release Musou games for the Sony trifecta for a while (PS3/PS4/Vita), until PS4 has that specific audience big enough to sustain decent levels for the franchise, alongside Vita. Then, jokes aside, I suppose there are chances NX joins the mix if it really explodes in sales and porting Musou titles is quite easy. Even if it's not the ultimate test, I'm interested in looking at Samurai Warriors 4: Empire sales on PS4, since it's a Musou title released after Dragon Quest Heroes came on the platform.
It's currently at the top, yeah. I wonder how much it'll sell overall, though. Considering how The Battle Cats is selling, and how eShop charts are calculated (not just the sales right now but the sales for the past two weeks up to now), it's not bad, though.
Haha, I'll need to wait till we hear more about NX before commenting on that.
It's rumoured that SSM8 will be unveiled on August 15th this year. If it is indeed a H1 2016 game then PS3/PS4 does seem likely in the same way Arslan Senki x Musou is for those systems. PS4 only for West would make sense. But I do wonder how the game will perform in Japan and how much of a risk the devs are willing to take to push the game more.
In regards to SM4: Empires I'll be surprised if PS4 sales go much over 50k.
Some small mobile updates.
1.) Mobius is holding okay as a second tier type performer for Square Enix. It seems to be able to maintain oscillating between 50 and 20 at the moment despite it being pretty late in the month (which I note because they seem to have a monthly update schedule). I still feel there's missed potential as it stands, but I wouldn't consider it a trainwreck.
2.) Rampage Land Rankers on the other hand has horrendous reviews and is currently sitting between 250-300 on the top grossing charts. Now this is what I'd call a spectacular failure for something they even bothered advertising. By comparison, the nigh stealth launches of the Dragon Quest: Monster Road browser game port and that random Sengoku game are performing vastly, vastly better sticking around in the 100-40 range depending on what's currently happening. Not exactly tremendous earners either, but I wanted to just list that as a comparison for how bad RLR is faceplanting.
3.) In the continuing saga of "Wow you know we have all these really nice Digimon assets laying around," Digimon Linkz - a new Bandai Namco mobile game - appears to be using them all for a new Digimon battling title. The scan isn't flawless quality, but the extra hardware power and resolution available on mobile seems to really help the assets shine as well. I definitely feel we're entering the era where dedicated device and mobile games can share assets pretty easily, especially in Japan where the dedicated device visual standard is usually lower.
1.) Mobius is holding okay as a second tier type performer for Square Enix. It seems to be able to maintain oscillating between 50 and 20 at the moment despite it being pretty late in the month (which I note because they seem to have a monthly update schedule). I still feel there's missed potential as it stands, but I wouldn't consider it a trainwreck.
2.) Rampage Land Rankers on the other hand has horrendous reviews and is currently sitting between 250-300 on the top grossing charts. Now this is what I'd call a spectacular failure for something they even bothered advertising. By comparison, the nigh stealth launches of the Dragon Quest: Monster Road browser game port and that random Sengoku game are performing vastly, vastly better sticking around in the 100-40 range depending on what's currently happening. Not exactly tremendous earners either, but I wanted to just list that as a comparison for how bad RLR is faceplanting.
3.) In the continuing saga of "Wow you know we have all these really nice Digimon assets laying around," Digimon Linkz - a new Bandai Namco mobile game - appears to be using them all for a new Digimon battling title. The scan isn't flawless quality, but the extra hardware power and resolution available on mobile seems to really help the assets shine as well. I definitely feel we're entering the era where dedicated device and mobile games can share assets pretty easily, especially in Japan where the dedicated device visual standard is usually lower.
About The Battle Cats, a better outlook:
May 31st - launch
June 26th - Ponos announces it's over 100,000 units sold on 3DS
Days taken to reach 100,000 units - 27 days.
July 11th - The Battle Cats overtakes Gunman Clive, officially entering All-Time 3DS eShop Charts. Gunman Clive was at around 140,000 units sold the last month
Days taken to go from 100,000 to 140,000 units sold - 14 days
July 12th - It overtakes BoxBoy as well (which obtained to surpass Gunman Clive not that long ago). Unfortunately, we have no reference for BoxBoy.
Going by averages, it sold 25,000 units per week till it reached 100,000 units, then around 20,000 per week (probably a slightly more).
The Battle Cats is now 17th, surpassing Touch Tank Battle 3D-2 and Shaun the Sheep, as of July 19th. Do we have any info on Touch Tank Battle 3D-2 sales?
May 31st - launch
June 26th - Ponos announces it's over 100,000 units sold on 3DS
Days taken to reach 100,000 units - 27 days.
July 11th - The Battle Cats overtakes Gunman Clive, officially entering All-Time 3DS eShop Charts. Gunman Clive was at around 140,000 units sold the last month
Days taken to go from 100,000 to 140,000 units sold - 14 days
July 12th - It overtakes BoxBoy as well (which obtained to surpass Gunman Clive not that long ago). Unfortunately, we have no reference for BoxBoy.
Going by averages, it sold 25,000 units per week till it reached 100,000 units, then around 20,000 per week (probably a slightly more).
The Battle Cats is now 17th, surpassing Touch Tank Battle 3D-2 and Shaun the Sheep, as of July 19th. Do we have any info on Touch Tank Battle 3D-2 sales?
Graphics Horse
Member
Is Battle Cats 3DS a single purchase thing or does it rely on microtransactions?
Or more simply, how does it compare with the f2p version?
Or more simply, how does it compare with the f2p version?
Your talk about cats, made me think about a well-known cat that can save NX.
Graphics Horse
Member
Bubsy?
Obviously MS gave Arzest the Blinx IP.
timetokill
Banned
The legs on Splatoon are ridiculous.
Silent Chief
Member
Do you have any way to rationalize Infinite Undiscovery and The Last Remnants?
How much money do you need to focus only on a segment that doesn't buy your games while alienating the folks that do?
What's your estimates of the money required to make Tomb Raider Xbox exclusive in Europe?
777 yens without microtransaction! You obtain quickly a lot of cat foods. It makes you obtain rare and uber rare cats 100x easier than in mobile. (Also XP are quickly obtained: 1500 Cat foods to obtain 200.000 xp and 15 for the 3ds version, i think) The mobile version is a robbery when you compare it to this last 3ds game.
And there's a successful 3D during battles .
There is a multiplayer mode.
The game begins in kyushu region and you go farther to the east level by level..
More importantly, there's no pub (clean)
The only negative points that I can say are : 3DS resolution makes the game a little more blurred but I don't care because activating the 3DS makes you forget this problem.
And no weekly updates as the mobile version.
Finally, I can say that it is the perfect eshop game that 3ds needed. It is cheap.
I hope for a wii u version...
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
nest gen has finally begun ;____:
I'm fairly sure Infinite Undiscovery is a Microsoft IP and was originally going to be published by MS. TLR was planned for PS3 but IIRC UE3 wasn't great on the system back then.
Microsoft owns (jointly) that IP. So there were no considerations to be had.
I think this is the type of stuff we'll see more of on the NX with better hardware to allow for easier/fuller porting between mobile and handheld.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Graphics Horse
Member
Thank you :3
This is anecdotal but out of all the phoenix wright 3DS players I've seen in the wild, half were women.
To be honest, on NX I'd like to see both for mobile game:s the f2p version (which could be called "Lite", "Mini", whatever) and the priced one. Thus, not only you can get the audience who'll download the game and pay once in a while/acting like whales like on mobile, but you'd get a different kind of audience (which could be composed of former f2p-only users) who aren't as "scared" by prices near 1,000 Yen and that would be ready to pay upfront to get the complete game, without IAPs, in-game commercials, etc.etc.
Not Japan, but people always talk about how their mothers are fans of the series in the West.
The two people I saw playing Ace Attorney in public were women.
I don't know about Japan, but in the US it's not a secret that crime dramas are very popular among women.
Here are some television viewership gender ratios (women to men) from 2010. If it's above 1, it means more women are watching than men.
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/20...imetime-shows-draw-more-men-than-women/50011/
Silent Chief
Member
So, as part of its Japanese push, Microsoft signed a deal with Tri-Ace for an RPG? And gave it to Square-Enix in the hope that their name on the box would increase sales?
From what I recall that's exactly what happened.
Silent Chief
Member
Some popular shows with gender ratios below 1, would help put this in perspective.
Don't women log more hours in front of the tube then men--outside of sport coverage?
For broadcast television during the same time frame:
And shows lower than NCIS where I started:
The two Law and Order shows (and thus the most on target for this comparison) are near the highest ratio before we start hitting things like high school girl dramas, select medical shows like Gray's Anatomy, and shows like Desperate Housewives, The Vampire Diaries, and America's Next Top Model.
But yes, women do watch more TV than men.
If you want to see extremely skewed results though, we can walk over to ESPN as you mentioned sports coverage: