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[Magicpaint]

Really hope MM3D does well.

 

[Pennywise83]

Aren't the software sales way lower for all systems with userbases similar to systems of many years ago?

Sure, but the comparison is even more depressing.

GC had 18 games above 400k. PSV has 2 accounting for digital sales (Persona 4 and God Eater 2). GC also has a million seller and several games (10) above 500k.

Really hope MM3D does well.

My feeling is that Nintendo announced the release date a bit late. That could also lead to greater legs, of course.

 

[Kyoufu]

GC had 18 games above 400k. PSV has 2 accounting for digital sales (Persona 4 and God Eater 2). GC also has a million seller and several games (10) above 500k.

GC had its own Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid and Resident Evil games. Of course its software sales are higher when it had notable franchises.

Vita's third party support is pretty woeful in comparison.

 

[sörine]

GC had its own Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid and Resident Evil games. Of course its software sales are higher when it had notable franchises.

Vita's third party support is pretty woeful in comparison.

I'd argue it's more the first party support that's woeful in comparison. That's where GC made the majority of it's top sellers.

 

[hiska-kun]

GamesMaya's report

- Today was the release of Zelda: Majora's Mask and it was very popular with adults above 20 years old.
- A lot of nostalgic and deep feelings. Some people played the game in the N64 era.
- The game moved hardware, and also Plates for New 3DS. The bundle is sold out.
- The game sold above expectations and almost is sold out too.
- As it's a remake it was expected a slower start, but it's selling in a high pace.
- Nintendo should have ready a second shipment soon.
- She received Chocolate from Valentine's day (lol)

 

[Eolz]

.

They should really stop with these limited faceplates instead of consoles... Or just sell the faceplates.

 

[Pennywise83]

GC had its own Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid and Resident Evil games. Of course its software sales are higher when it had notable franchises.

Vita's third party support is pretty woeful in comparison.

Among them, only RE0 sold more than 400k, though. Third parties support were barren on GC, no matter how this can be spinned.

 

[Moor-Angol]

I'd argue it's more the first party support that's woeful in comparison. That's where GC made the majority of it's top sellers.

which is the difference between other nintendo systems ?


anyway if you don't consider MH, S-E and Konami titles and a poor Sony support, there would not be so many differences in sw sales between PSP and Vita

and if we compare Vita to GC why not comparing to Wonderswan ? same situation (2nd handheld), around same userbase (3,5mln vs. 3mln) but at least things are a little better

 

[BriBri]

anyway if you don't consider MH, S-E and Konami titles and a poor Sony support, there would not be so many differences in sw sales between PSP and Vita

If my husband wasn't an such an alcoholic and beat me up when he was drunk then it would really be a happy marriage.

 

[theprodigy]

Slightly more than GC but with way lower sw sales.

wow, a handheld will have a lower attach rate than a console? *gasp*

 

[Busaiku]

GC had its own Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid and Resident Evil games. Of course its software sales are higher when it had notable franchises.

Vita has those games too.

 

[duckroll]

Vita has those games too.

Not really. Unless you want to make a flawed comparison.

 

[Busaiku]

In that light, how did Gamecube have Final Fantasy and Metal Gear Solid?
Resident Evil, ok.

 

[duckroll]

In that light, how did Gamecube have Final Fantasy and Metal Gear Solid?

I think an original FF themed multiplayer action RPG and a remake of MGS1 with MGS2 mechanics added and every single cutscene completely redone and directed by a well known Japanese film director counts a lot more than a HD Remaster of FFX/X-2 which is also available on PS3, and a HD Remaster of MGS2-3/PW which is also available on PS3 and Xbox360.

Obviously it's not comparable to say, the support on PSP, which had stuff like Crisis Core, Type-0, two Dissidias, Portable Ops, and Peace Walker. But that's also a factor in why the PSP sold much better.

 

[small44]

Slightly more than GC but with way lower sw sales.

It's normal since Nintendo IP are bigger then Sony IP.
Did gc had a lot of old port or just some multiplatform

 

[Pennywise83]

anyway if you don't consider MH, S-E and Konami titles and a poor Sony support, there would not be so many differences in sw sales between PSP and Vita

Even getting rid of the game of such companies, PSP is still far ahead in software sales. You had big games from Namco, Sega, Level-5 and Koei as well.

 

[duckroll]

anyway if you don't consider MH, S-E and Konami titles and a poor Sony support, there would not be so many differences in sw sales between PSP and Vita

Really? Let's put that to the test and see if it's true. The following are all Famitsu numbers.

I'm looking at the Top30 software sales for the Vita in Japan now.

#1 is God Eater 2 at 393,531.
#2 is Persona 4 Golden at 289,114.
#4 is Sword Art Online at 241,377.
#8 is Soul Sacrifice at 190,592.
#25 is Danganropa 1+2 Reloaded at 99,610.
#30 is Gravity Daze at 85,287.

That shows us the range for the >300k sellers, the >200k sellers, and the >100k sellers.



Now, I've taken the Top800 software sales for the PSP in Japan, and taking the top part of the charts, I removed all Monster Hunter, Square Enix, Konami, and SCE titles from the list to create a Top30 without Monster Hunter, Square Enix, Konami, or SCE.

#1 is Phantasy Star Portable at 636,973.
#3 is Phantasy Star Portable 2 at 590,527.
#4 is God Eater Burst at 458,490.
#8 is Gundam vs Gundam Next Plus at 394,953.
#17 is Brain Trainer Portable at 297,816.
#30 is Taiko no Tatsujin Portable 2 at 233,267.

That's right. In all of the Vita's Japanese library, only 4 games have outsold the 30th best selling game on the PSP library which isn't a Monster Hunter, Square Enix, Konami, or SCE game.

 

[Hero of Legend]

That's right. In all of the Vita's Japanese library, only 4 games have outsold the 30th best selling game on the PSP library which isn't a Monster Hunter, Square Enix, Konami, or SCE game.

Going by your list, I only see 3? Unless I'm looking at it wrong.

 

[duckroll]

Going by your list, I only see 3? Unless I'm looking at it wrong.

You're looking at it wrong.

 

[Nirolak]

Going by your list, I only see 3? Unless I'm looking at it wrong.

#3 isn't listed.

https://sites.google.com/site/japanltdrank/show?platform=PSV

Freedom Wars would be there if we use retail sales only.

 

[test_account]

Does anyone have a list of total software sales for the systems?

 

[casiopao]

GamesMaya's report

- Today was the release of Zelda: Majora's Mask and it was very popular with adults above 20 years old.
- A lot of nostalgic and deep feelings. Some people played the game in the N64 era.
- The game moved hardware, and also Plates for New 3DS. The bundle is sold out.
- The game sold above expectations and almost is sold out too.
- As it's a remake it was expected a slower start, but it's selling in a high pace.
- Nintendo should have ready a second shipment soon.
- She received Chocolate from Valentine's day (lol)

It is time for Sunshine 3D enhancement.^_^

 

[StoppedInTracks]

Really? Let's put that to the test and see if it's true. The following are all Famitsu numbers.

I'm looking at the Top30 software sales for the Vita in Japan now.

#1 is God Eater 2 at 393,531.
#2 is Persona 4 Golden at 289,114.
#4 is Sword Art Online at 241,377.
#8 is Soul Sacrifice at 190,592.
#25 is Danganropa 1+2 Reloaded at 99,610.
#30 is Gravity Daze at 85,287.

That shows us the range for the >300k sellers, the >200k sellers, and the >100k sellers.



Now, I've taken the Top800 software sales for the PSP in Japan, and taking the top part of the charts, I removed all Monster Hunter, Square Enix, Konami, and SCE titles from the list to create a Top30 without Monster Hunter, Square Enix, Konami, or SCE.

#1 is Phantasy Star Portable at 636,973.
#3 is Phantasy Star Portable 2 at 590,527.
#4 is God Eater Burst at 458,490.
#8 is Gundam vs Gundam Next Plus at 394,953.
#17 is Brain Trainer Portable at 297,816.
#30 is Taiko no Tatsujin Portable 2 at 233,267.

That's right. In all of the Vita's Japanese library, only 4 games have outsold the 30th best selling game on the PSP library which isn't a Monster Hunter, Square Enix, Konami, or SCE game.

I mean I knew Vita is in bad shape but putting it like this in front of our eyes... Vita is in really, really bad shape.

 

[Nirolak]

I mean I knew Vita is in bad shape but putting it like this in front of our eyes... Vita is in really, really bad shape.

And in many ways this is the second most successful dedicated platform this gen.

 

[Vena]

I'm looking at the Top30 software sales for the Vita in Japan now.

#1 is God Eater 2 at 393,531.
#2 is Persona 4 Golden at 289,114.
#4 is Sword Art Online at 241,377.
#8 is Soul Sacrifice at 190,592.
#25 is Danganropa 1+2 Reloaded at 99,610.
#30 is Gravity Daze at 85,287.

That shows us the range for the >300k sellers, the >200k sellers, and the >100k sellers.

Oof. I never sat down to look at the numbers in the raw, and this is just... depressing.

 

[Oregano]

And in many ways this is the second most successful dedicated platform this gen.

Just to make it more depressing how (badly) does the 3DS stack up against the DS?

 

[duckroll]

Just to make it more depressing how (badly) does the 3DS stack up against the DS?

Well. The Top30 for the 3DS bottoms up at 440,623, and there are 17 titles which sold over a million copies. 10 of those sold over 2 million. 4 of those sold over 3 million. 2 of those sold over 4 million.

The DS has 36 titles which sold over a million. 15 of those sold over 2 million. 11 of those sold over 3 million. 7 of those sold over 4 million. 5 of those sold over 5 million. 1 of those sold over 6 million. The highest DS game which sold less than 440k is #75 at 424,948.

Edit: I think even more interesting in how thin the 3DS range in the ~500-900k ranges are.

There are 4 DS titles in the >900k <1mil range. There is 1 3DS game in that range.
There are 2 DS titles in the >800k <900k range. There are 0 3DS titles in that range.
There are 6 DS titles in the >700k <800k range. There is 1 3DS title in that range.
There are 8 DS titles in the >600k <700k range. There are 3 3DS titles in that range.
There are 11 DS titles in the >500k <600k range. There are 4 3DS titles in that range.

 

[Oregano]

.

So in the high end it's not that bad but the mid-range is very weak. It has always seemed that the 3DS lacks in mid-tier titles.

 

[Mory Dunz]

So in the high end it's not that bad but the mid-range is very weak. It has always seemed that the 3DS lacks in mid-tier titles.

Is 500k to 1 Million really mid-tier though?

I feel like that's pretty high tier. It just looks smaller compared to the 1 million+ sellers and then the Multi million MonhunPokeWatchKarts.

 

[Oregano]

Is 500k to 1 Million really mid-tier though?

I feel like that's pretty high tier. It just looks smaller compared to the 1 million+ sellers and then the Multi million MonhunPokeWatchKarts.

Well it kind of is the high tier now but it was formally mid tier(if that makes sense?).

I'd still say anything up to 600k could be counted as mid-tier though.

 

[duckroll]

Is 500k to 1 Million really mid-tier though?

I feel like that's pretty high tier. It just looks smaller compared to the 1 million+ sellers and then the Multi million MonhunPokeWatchKarts.

I think we can consider >1 million titles to be total blockbusters, and 500k to 1 million titles to be more or less definite hits. But it doesn't matter how we categorize them, it's more interesting to see what the data tells us, which is the opportunity for a game to sell in the >500k range is contracting a lot, even if in the case of the 3DS, there are still a high number of huge blockbusters.

For the purpose of this exercise, I'll identify games which sold over a million as A, and games which sold between 500k and a million as B.

PS1 - A = 18 titles, B = 52 titles (70 games >500k)
PS2 - A = 17 titles, B = 53 titles (70 games >500k)
PS3 - A = 1 title, B = 13 titles (14 games >500k)
PS4 - NIL

N64 - A = 5 titles, B = 13 titles (18 games >500k)
GC - A = 1 title, B = 9 titles (10 games >500k)
Wii - A = 14 titles, B = 14 titles (28 games >500k)
WiiU - A = 1 title, B = 4 titles (5 games >500k)

PSP - A = 4 titles, B = 11 titles (15 games >500k)
Vita - NIL

GBA - A= 4 titles, B = 14 titles (18 games >500k)
DS - A = 36 titles, B = 31 titles (67 games >500k)
3DS - A = 17 titles, B = 9 titles (26 games >500k)

 

[horuhe]

I think we can consider >1 million titles to be total blockbusters, and 500k to 1 million titles to be more or less definite hits. But it doesn't matter how we categorize them, it's more interesting to see what the data tells us, which is the opportunity for a game to sell in the >500k range is contracting a lot, even if in the case of the 3DS, there are still a high number of huge blockbusters.

For the purpose of this exercise, I'll identify games which sold over a million as A, and games which sold between 500k and a million as B.

PS1 - A = 18 titles, B = 52 titles (70 games >500k)
PS2 - A = 17 titles, B = 53 titles (70 games >500k)
PS3 - A = 1 title, B = 13 titles (14 games >500k)
PS4 - NIL

N64 - A = 5 titles, B = 13 titles (18 games >500k)
GC - A = 1 title, B = 9 titles (10 games >500k)
Wii - A = 14 titles, B = 14 titles (28 games >500k)
WiiU - A = 1 title, B = 4 titles (5 games >500k)

PSP - A = 4 titles, B = 11 titles (15 games >500k)
Vita - NIL

GBA - A= 4 titles, B = 14 titles (18 games >500k)
DS - A = 36 titles, B = 31 titles (67 games >500k)
3DS - A = 17 titles, B = 9 titles (26 games >500k)

Looking at this is really impressive how has the situation turned out.

3DS is not bad at all. It really needs more mid-tier games, but is doing ok compared with the other consoles. Wii U seems to be in a GameCube-esque situation. Nintendo consoles really did well in order to keep million sellers.

On the other hand, Sony consoles are in a bad shape, specially PS Vita. I mean, PS4 at least can get its only million seller.

Is there any announced game that could reach 500k mark?

 

[Oregano]

Is there any announced game that could reach 500k mark?

Monster Hunter 5 obviously now that Nintendo's exclusivity contract is over and Sony is buying Capcom.

On a serious note probably not at the moment.

 

[horuhe]

Monster Hunter 5 obviously now that Nintendo's exclusivity contract is over and Sony is buying Capcom.

MH5 would make PSVita sell 20 million LTD, that's for sure.

 

[Anth0ny]

enough with the comparisons. please.



it hurts ; _ ;

 

[test_account]

Is there any announced game that could reach 500k mark?

I dont think that we will see many 500k+ sellers for home consoles (not handhelds) in this generation unless "classic" gaming popularity starts to increase, at least not on a single platform. Dragon Quest Heroes, One Piece Warriors 3 and Yakuza might have a chance to sell 500k+ each, but they are multiplatform games. Metal Gear Solid 5 will most likely sell 500k+, but that is also a multiplatform game. Other than those, i cant think of many titles besides Final Fantasy 15 and Resident Evil 7 which are pretty much guaranteed to sell 500k+ on a single platform. Deep Down and Dragon Dogma Online might reach 500k+ downloads each, but those games are free to play (but could be profitable if much in-game purchase are being done).

 

[Moor-Angol]

strange I mentioned Wonderswan but all the nice people who replied to me just made a comparison between a 20mln platform to a 3,5mln one

like comparing DS and Wii U to say the latter is in disgrace

I just wanted to pointed out the very difference between PSP and Vita, lack of first party support and ignored by most of the biggest company, but it was necessary to notice that a 20mln platform has a whole lotta games over 100k while the poor and kidded by everyone 3,5mln one doesn't have

luckly next week Vita will Burst its Rage

 

[Moor-Angol]

Really? Let's put that to the test and see if it's true. The following are all Famitsu numbers.

I'm looking at the Top30 software sales for the Vita in Japan now.

#1 is God Eater 2 at 393,531.
#2 is Persona 4 Golden at 289,114.
#4 is Sword Art Online at 241,377.
#8 is Soul Sacrifice at 190,592.
#25 is Danganropa 1+2 Reloaded at 99,610.
#30 is Gravity Daze at 85,287.

#8 is Hatsune Miku at 217,028
#25 is Dragon's Crown at 109,549

Vita has around 30 titles over 100k


https://sites.google.com/site/japanltdrank/show?platform=PSV

use proper charts, not gamedatamuseum which didn't update the Famitsu top 300 2014

 

[Oregano]

Yeah, everyone should stop being a big meanie about the poor Vita!

 

[duckroll]

#8 is Hatsune Miku at 217,028
#25 is Dragon's Crown at 109,549

Vita has around 30 titles over 100k


https://sites.google.com/site/japanltdrank/show?platform=PSV

use proper charts, not gamedatamuseum which didn't update the Famitsu top 300 2014

Oh yeah, it looks like they haven't updated the charts for the current consoles because they're still recovering data from problems they had a short while ago, whoops.

That doesn't change my general point though. Vita and PSP are so far apart in terms of success, trying to claim that they're the same in any way is ridiculous.

 

[hiska-kun]

This week Famitsu's Most Wanted Games

01./01. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV {TBA} - 1199 votes
02./02. [3DS] Bravely Second: End Layer {2015.04.23} - 872 votes
03./04. [PS4] Dragon Quest Heroes {2015.02.26} - 731 votes
04./03. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask {2015.02.14} - 667 votes
05./05. [PS3] Persona 5 {2015} - 615 votes
06./07. [3DS] Theatrhythm Dragon Quest {2015.03.26} - 584 votes
07./09. [PS4] Kingdom Hearts III {TBA} - 486 votes
08./06. [PS3] Dragon Quest Heroes {2015.02.26} - 407 votes
09./08. [PS4] Persona 5 {2015} - 383 votes
10./24. [WIU] Xenoblade X {2015.04.29} - 313 votes

11./21. [PS4] Final Fantasy Type-0 HD {2015.03.19} - 298 votes
12./11. [PS4] Metal Gear Solid V: Phantom Pain {2015} - 294 votes
13./22. [PS4] Bloodborne {2015.03.26} - 276 votes
14./10. [PS4] Yakuza 0 {2015.03.12} - 253 votes
15./23. [3DS] The Great Ace Attorney {2015} - 250 votes
16./15. [3DS] Etrian Odyssey: Mysterious Dungeon {2015.03.05} - 247 votes
17./17. [PSV] Kan Core {2015.05.xx} - 240 votes
18./12. [3DS] PopoloCrois Harvest Moon {2015.06.18} - 233 votes
19./14. [WIU] The Legend of Zelda {2015} - 231 votes
20./25. [PS3] Resident Evil: Revelations 2 {2015.03.19} - 229 votes

21./29. [3DS] Xenoblade 3D {2015.04.02} - 223 votes
22./30. [3DS] Fire Emblem if {2015.Summer} - 217 votes
23./13. [PSV] God Eater 2: Rage Burst {2015.02.19} - 215 votes

Spoiler

24./26. [PS3] The Last Remnant {TBA} - 212 votes

25./16. [PS3] 3rd Super Robot Taisen Z: Tengokuhen {2015.04.02} - 202 votes
26./18. [PS4] Resident Evil: Revelations 2 {2015.03.19} - 195 votes
27./19. [PSV] Sword Art Online: Lost Song {2015.03.26} - 190 votes
28./20. [PS3] Yakuza 0 {2015.03.12} - 180 votes
29./28. [PSV] Saga 2015 {2015} - 165 votes
30./00. [PSV] 3rd Super Robot Taisen Z: Tengokuhen {2015.04.02} - 136 votes

PS4 - 9
3DS - 8
PS3 - 6
PSV - 5
WiiU - 2

I know, but it's fun xD

 

[TheChaos0]

That Last Remnant and I'm still waiting for Vesperia PS3 to come in English.

 

[Chris1964]

Famitsu

2004 CY {2003.12.29 - 2004.12.26} [PSP] Hardware Sales - 339.944 / 339.944
2005 CY {2004.12.27 - 2005.12.25} [PSP] Hardware Sales - 2.225.799 / 2.565.743
2006 CY {2005.12.26 - 2006.12.31} [PSP] Hardware Sales - 1.946.911 / 4.512.654
2007 CY {2007.01.01 - 2007.12.30} [PSP] Hardware Sales - 3.022.659 / 7.535.313
2008 CY {2007.12.31 - 2008.12.28} [PSP] Hardware Sales - 3.543.171 / 11.078.484
2009 CY {2008.12.29 - 2009.12.27} [PSP] Hardware Sales - 2.307.971 / 13.386.455
2010 CY {2009.12.28 - 2010.12.26} [PSP] Hardware Sales - 2.890.476 / 16.276.931
2011 CY {2010.12.27 - 2011.12.25} [PSP] Hardware Sales - 1.960.177 / 18.237.108
2012 CY {2011.12.26 - 2012.12.30} [PSP] Hardware Sales - 941.992 / 19.179.100
2013 CY {2012.12.31 - 2013.12.29} [PSP] Hardware Sales - 429.393 / 19.608.493
2014 CY {2013.12.30 - 2014.12.28} [PSP] Hardware Sales - 83.985 / 19.692.478

2004 CY {2003.12.29 - 2004.12.26} [PSP] Software Sales - 550.665 / 550.665
2005 CY {2004.12.27 - 2005.12.25} [PSP] Software Sales - 4.179.374 / 4.730.039
2006 CY {2005.12.26 - 2006.12.31} [PSP] Software Sales - 6.659.000 / 11.389.000
2007 CY {2007.01.01 - 2007.12.30} [PSP] Software Sales - 6.750.169 / 18.139.200
2008 CY {2007.12.31 - 2008.12.28} [PSP] Software Sales - 9.745.758 / 27.885.000
2009 CY {2008.12.29 - 2009.12.27} [PSP] Software Sales - 9.850.000 / 37.735.000
2010 CY {2009.12.28 - 2010.12.26} [PSP] Software Sales - 16.255.643 / 53.990.600
2011 CY {2010.12.27 - 2011.12.25} [PSP] Software Sales - 13.975.141 / 67.965.700
2012 CY {2011.12.26 - 2012.12.30} [PSP] Software Sales - 7.701.189 / 75.666.900
2013 CY {2012.12.31 - 2013.12.29} [PSP] Software Sales - 3.944.507 / 79.611.400
2014 CY {2013.12.30 - 2014.12.28} [PSP] Software Sales - 1.080.990 (Dengeki)


2011 CY {2010.12.27 - 2011.12.25} [PSV] Hardware Sales - 402.794 / 402.794
2012 CY {2011.12.26 - 2012.12.30} [PSV] Hardware Sales - 674.365 / 1.077.159
2013 CY {2012.12.31 - 2013.12.29} [PSV] Hardware Sales - 1.197.980 / 2.275.139
2014 CY {2013.12.30 - 2014.12.28} [PSV] Hardware Sales - 1.147.936 / 3.423.075

2011 CY {2010.12.27 - 2011.12.25} [PSV] Software Sales - 396.414 / 396.414
2012 CY {2011.12.26 - 2012.12.30} [PSV] Software Sales - 1.953.478 / 2.349.892
2013 CY {2012.12.31 - 2013.12.29} [PSV] Software Sales - 3.547.852 / 5.897.744
2014 CY {2013.12.30 - 2014.12.28} [PSV] Software Sales - 5.143.158 (Dengeki)

 

[Sandfox]

Those SW numbers are crazy.

 

[test_account]

Thanks for the numbers. Do you have a comparison for the other systems too? (DS/3DS, PS3/PS4, Wii/WiiU).

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

And in many ways this is the second most successful dedicated platform this gen.

But will it remain like that in the coming years?

 

[Fafalada]

So Vita leads over 30% in Tie-Ratio without factoring in digital? (which didn't exist on PSP for first 3 years)

 

[Moor-Angol]

Oh yeah, it looks like they haven't updated the charts for the current consoles because they're still recovering data from problems they had a short while ago, whoops.

That doesn't change my general point though. Vita and PSP are so far apart in terms of success, trying to claim that they're the same in any way is ridiculous.

no, he didn't update the site when last top100 (or 300 now I don't remember exactly) became available; the problem about data is recent, Famitsu 2013 chart appeared in late January iirc


ps : thanks for considering ridicolous other people thoughts, I think there are other ways to show to someone he might be wrong

 

[Fisico]

Famitsu
2007 CY {2007.01.01 - 2007.12.30} [PSP] Software Sales - 6.750.169 / 18.139.200

2014 CY {2013.12.30 - 2014.12.28} [PSV] Software Sales - 5.143.158 (Dengeki)

Uh, am I reading it wrong ?
Because it's much closer than what I thought it would be

Spoiler

positive thinking

Not like Vita will ever take off now unlike the PSP back then though.

 

[Eolz]

But will it remain like that in the coming years?

Probably not, but it may end up a closer call than some expect

Spoiler

or vice-versa

.