SwiftDeath
Member
Is this real or sarcasm? How bad was this years NPD? lol
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NPD Sales Results for December 2013 [Up2: Xbox One/360 HW, 3DS top system of year]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Is this real or sarcasm? How bad was this years NPD? lol
Road totaled up the systems for the year earlier. 3DS being #1 at 3.8m makes is the worst selling #1 system for the year since 1996. Blip or omen? We'll see!
Square2015
Member
I can help you out
3DS at 3.8 million is the worst result for the best selling system of each year since at least 2001 (I don't have NPD data before that):
2001 PS2: 6.2m
2002 PS2: 8.4m
2003 GBA: 7.8m
2004 GBA: 7.1m
2005 PS2: 5.5m
2006 NDS: 5.3m
2007 NDS: 8.5m
2008 WII: 10.2m
2009 NDS: 11.2m
2010 NDS: 8.6m
2011 360: 7.3m
2012 360: 5.3m
2013 3DS:
Top selling console each year:2000 GBC: 6.8m
1999 GBC: 6.4m
1998 PSX: 7.1m
1997 PSX: 5.1m
1996 PSX: 2.0m
1995 SNES: 2.3m
1994 GEN: 3.3m
1993 GEN: 4.7m?
1992 GEN: 4.5m
Because I love you guys so much =]
There isn't any economic theory involved to begin with. When you make this claim:
you're effectively restating the point from earlier - consumers magically don't care about how they spend large amounts of money. As I said before, the whole thing is built upon this notion that thousands of consumers are too stupid or too carefree to be concerned about distinguishing between potential $500+ expenditures.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
A few big NA 360 releases missing from from that list:
GTA5
Batman AO
Madden 25
NBA 2k14
AC4
Battlefield 4
CoD Ghosts
Bioshock Infinite
Tomb Raider
State of Decay
Injustice
Though I'm actually really curious how Splinter Cell did.
So you are contending that they're not close substitutes? Well then we can agree to disagree. It seems like you ignored the rest of my post explaining it anyway.
Square2015
Member
Comeback WiiU, staying ahead of DC, in November and December (barely).
Aquamarine
Member
Comeback WiiU, staying ahead of DC (barely).
WII U AHEAD OF DREAMCAST!?!??! BARELY?!?!? THIS IS A GAME CHANGER GUYS.
Square2015
Member
And the first-full year for NoA's latest is complete
I'm contending that such an arbitrary distinguishment is irrelevant. (EDIT: In this case)
I respond to the points worth responding to, not fluff.
Well you're wrong when it comes to point A) and point B) just suggests to me that you didn't understand what I was saying, which I suppose is my fault.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Why the hell did N64 sales suddenly explode like that?And the first-full year for NoA's latest is complete
Version 3.0
Member
The rest of your post was a bit of a ramble. The simple truth is, they're not close substitutes. They're different brands in a very brand-sensitive market. They're not microwaves. Sure, it's true no one is very brand-sensitive about microwaves, but that's a terrible example to try and compare. This is more like offering someone Cinemax when they're trying to buy HBO, Reeboks when they asked for Nikes, or a Kindle to someone who wants an iPad. It's not an acceptable substitute to most shoppers, whether it's Christmas or not.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
I completely forgot about MG xD. You're right about InFamous but I figured w/ it releasing so soon a lot of people who might want it already got a PS4 or are getting one this month.
Probably am. But didn't Halo 4 bog the series down a bit?
I only assumed it would happen like that because w/ the price drop in Nov. (especially if in the first half) sales would eat through December supply. That's also assuming retailers get some or most of their Dec. stock in advance and just store them until the scheduled time to put on the sales floor.
I'm not contending everyone finds them to be close substitutes, I acknowledged the Microwave example is a simplified version but it was just used to explain the type of people who aren't "stupid consumers" and would still pick something else over their ideal choice when confronted with supply shortages. This is going to apply in some degree to the PS4 and Xbox One, though not in the same way as the Microwave. I also contend that it is significant for the christmas reason and the fact I think they're actually quite close substitutes in the eyes of quite a few people. Me for example: but I got both instead of choosing. (On another note if there were no Nikes in my area I'd take Reeboks.)
Version 3.0
Member
WII U AHEAD OF DREAMCAST!?!??! BARELY?!?!? THIS IS A GAME CHANGER GUYS.
I know you're just kidding, but the logic center of my brain couldn't resist pointing out that Nintendo tends to have bigger Christmas gains than the others - that gift (ie. kids) market.
Nothing1016
Member
The trio of Golden Eye, Diddy Kong Racing, and Mario 64 was very powerful.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
I have to say again that 299k for the PS3 in December is abysmal. That is a huge drop.
Version 3.0
Member
It's the also-ran console in this region, and its gen lasted 2 years too long. The non-market leading consoles have always dropped dead when the next gen arrived, if they hadn't already.
Version 3.0
Member
This makes me sad. But human nature tends to rebel against with what is standard. Let's hope that gaming will win over nasty touch screen rookies.
Raoul Duke
Banned
Tough to say since these new consoles only had a month and a half on selves, so I think it might be too early to have serious doubts... but if neither of the new home consoles doesn't improve upon that number in 2014, then yeah, it would be an ominous sign.
1st Course
Member
Just a summary of Dec > Jan transactions in recent years:
Avg Dec > Jan change = -78.1%
Assuming 78.1% drop for every HW in Jan-14:
Honestly sub-200k for X1/PS4 would pretty good considering that the Wii U managed only 1/4 that in its first non-holiday month.
Code:
Dec-06 Jan-07 change
NDS 1600K 239K -85%
Wii 604K 436K -28%
360 1100K 294K -73%
PS2 1500K 299K -80%
PS3 491K 244K -50%
PSP 952K 211K -78%
Code:
Dec-07 Jan-08 % change
360 1,260K 230K - 82%
NDS 2,470K 251K - 90%
PS2 1,100K 264K - 76%
PS3 798K 269K - 66%
PSP 1,060K 230K - 78%
WII 1,350K 274K - 80%
Code:
Dec-08 Jan-09 % change
360 1440K 309K - 79%
NDS 3040K 511K - 83%
PS2 410K 101K - 77%
PS3 726K 203K - 72%
PSP 1020K 172K - 83%
WII 2150K 679K - 68%
Code:
Dec-09 Jan-10 % change
360 1310K 333K - 75%
NDS 3310K 422K - 87%
PS3 1360K 277K - 80%
WII 3810K 466K - 88%
Code:
Dec-10 Jan-11 change
NDS 2500K 291K -88%
Wii 2360K 319K -86%
360 1860K 381K -80%
PS3 1210K 267K -78%
Code:
Dec-11 Jan-12 change
360 1700K 270K -84%
PS3+Wii*1996K 340K -83%
3DS* 1600K 175K -89%
*We didn't get exact Jan-12 numbers for 3DS/PS3/Wii. [URL="http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=464718"]See this for more.[/URL]
Code:
Dec-12 Jan-13 change
360 1400K 281K -80%
3DS 1250K 145K -88%
PS3 625K 201K -68%
WiU 460K 57K -88%
PSV 225K 35K -84%Avg Dec > Jan change = -78.1%
Assuming 78.1% drop for every HW in Jan-14:
Code:
Dec-13 estimated Jan-14
X1 908 199
PS4 865 189
3DS 1100 241
PS3 299 65
360 643 141
PSV 95 21
WiU 481 105Honestly sub-200k for X1/PS4 would pretty good considering that the Wii U managed only 1/4 that in its first non-holiday month.
WII U AHEAD OF DREAMCAST!?!??! BARELY?!?!? THIS IS A GAME CHANGER GUYS.
Dreamcast would've finished the gen, if SEGA had been in better financial straits. Dreamcast got a raw deal.
PS4 will be much more dependent on how many Sony can ship, same as Wii early on. XB1 will be interesting, but don't think it'll drop to < 200K. Wii U would be doing wonderfully to hold above 100K, but I don't think that's going to happen...
Entryhazard
Banned
No Nintendo PR this month?
CadetMahoney
Member
Doubt it. They'll address the combat and do a strong marketing push against the main criticism of the game then the haters will have to find something else to bash.
that would represent an unbelievable uptick. i don't see it. 40k-50k is more like it.
It certainly is possible since its library is much stronger than compared with the drop off a year ago. I'm predicting about 75K though.
Frankfurter
Member
So 3DS is down YoY.. that's extremely disappointing for the plattform. I'm curious to find out whether that was more due to dedicated handheld sales trends in general or because of the introduction of PS4/Xb1 (i.e. people only spending so much money). We'll see in the coming months once PS4/Xb1 hype is more or less gone.
it's down yoy for december, but for november and december, sales are flat. the months were distributed a little differently between this year and last. in 2012, november ended on the 24th. this year it ended on the 30th. in 2012, december ended on the 30th. in 2013, it ended on january 5 2014. so december had one less holiday-crazy week this year than it did last year.
november 2012: 540k
december 2012: 1.25m
total: 1.79m
november 2013: 770k
december 2013: 1.1m
total: 1.87m
i think the wii u's jump during december indicates whatever they sold in november must have been on black friday. actually having advertisements on television probably helped boost sales too. last year, the vita was flat from november to december. i expected the same for the wii u this year.
It actually had a smaller drop than the 360 but yes the sale were bad.
travisbickle
Member
By "haters" you mean game reviewers?
For the two systems that just launched, the most important numbers to look at are the 2006->2007 transition. The supply constrained Wii dropped 28%, and the PS3, which wasn't supply constrained in January, dropped 50%. What was the 360's first transition like.
IAmRandom31
Banned
Zelda : OOT probably
Once Zelda OOT hit along with Metroid 64 and Super Smash and all that ( Goldeneye ), the N64 was popular. But still sales wise was destroyed.
The Wii U being even worse then the GC should be a nightmare for Nintendo, especially after the Wii success they were working off of.
I do not think a machine has alienated the built up fanbase of the previous system as much as the Wii U. Most people I know who are casual who owned a Wii look at the Wii U on shelves as something completely unrelated to the Wii. Some do not even realize the Wii controllers still work, or motion stuff still is used in the system. Nintendo did that bad of a job.
Ocarina of Time came out in 1998, and Super Smash Bros. came out in 199. Goldeneye did come out in 1997, though.
It was still supply constrained, as I recall.
Code:
Nov 2005: 360 - 326K
Dec 2005: 360 - 281K
Jan 2006: 360 - 250K
Feb 2006: 360 - 161KFrankfurter
Member
Oh wow, I didn't know anymore that 3DS' Nov 2012 sales were that bad. Thinks are looking quite a bit better, thanks for the explanation.
November 2012 saw Nintendo with just Paper Mario and a red OG 3DS + 3D Land bundle as main Black Friday deal. That's the main reason such low sales happened.
Goldeneye.
Those weren't out yet or in Metroid's case never existed.
Sanic
Member
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
I have no problem with this. If the market shrinks, manufacturers and developers merely readjust for it. Right now the market it bloated, it was especially bloated pre-2010, and could use a trimming.
You act like iPad is sucking away the core/hardcore gamers and that there haven't been any new core/hardcore gamers since the PS2. You're also acting like none of those iPad players will get bored and want to play more sophisticated games on consoles.
It's not that insular.
Manmademan
Member
100k is reasonable. the WiiU would have done about that much last year, but had an absolutely MONSTROUS amount of returns from scalpers knocking it down into the 40-50k range.
Those returns won't be there this year, no one in their right mind is scalping WiiU's. Anyone who bought it in december was fully aware of what they were getting.
oh man. laughed quite a bit at this one. More fodder for the neogaf shit posts twitter, I suppose.
The real answer here is goldeneye, obviously. The N64 only sold about 36 million units, but 9 million copies of goldeneye- which is quite frankly a monstrous attach rate, all things considered.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Was just about say this xD.
It should've, though. It really, really should've.
Version 3.0
Member
Nope. The Wii holds the lead for another month, and maybe several at this point. The 360 just ticked past 41 million, with the Wii about 580k ahead still. Assuming Wii sales pretty much stop dead, which is likely, it'll still take the 360 at least 3 months to catch up, and probably more like 6 or so.
Version 3.0
Member
100k is not reasonable. The way the Wii U is tracking vs. the Gamecube, the absolute best it could hope for next month is about 65k. 100k would beat the Gamecube's equivalent month - something the Wii U has never done. There's no reason it could or would start now.
Aquamarine
Member
Wii is still in the lead. But 2013 will be the final year that Wii is greater than 360.
Roland Deschain
Member
Wow, amazing that MS still had this massive success with the Xbone after all the bad publicity. And on top of that the 360 is still selling like gangbusters.