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[jordan0386]

I sympathize with Square2005. I think he's going at it a little too hard, but I sympathize. Famitsu/Enterbrain does great with Japanese sales.

Free weekly top 30 with LTDs (2 weeks behind).
Bi-annual top 100s with LTDs (within a month after the half years).
Sell a book that has analysis, a sampling of worldwide data, and a top 500 with LTDs for the year (8 months behind) for ~$200.

If NPD offered a book with the Top 500/1000 (Japanese top 500 goes to < 20K; U.S. top 500 would be more like just < 100K, so a top 1000 would be better) for ~$200 eight months out of date, I can think of quite a few here who would jump on that like a drowning man on a piece of wood. We don't want to make huge financial decisions on this data, so paying > $100K is out of the question. We just like to know what the games sold like.

I'm extremely thankful that we get hardware and a top 10 with numbers, though. Something is still better than nothing.

it just aint the same, no mo' *(

 

[titiklabingapat]

Look, Capcom made a cheap ass (in terms of cost) port of RE4 to the Wii that is selling very well. So, why isn't that success offsetting the losses? It's all the 360's fault right?

It was a drop in the bucket and could have been pure profit. Who knows, it could have shaved 1 or 2 percentage point from the losses since the game would have been impossible to lose money from. One thing's for sure, Capcom itself expected higher sales on thier new 360 titles than a quick Wii port and spent considerably more time, money and effort.

 

[Odysseus]

one thing that surprises me is that we haven't heard a peep out of ea about madden's early sales. granted, it has only been 10 days, but they were pretty quick last year to boast about their record opening. i was eager to get an early idea about how the platforms might be shaking out this time around.

 

[radjago]

Was Picross DS a July release? I assume most of the sales will carry over into August, but I'd be disappointed if it couldn't beat out Hannah Montanna at this point.

 

[Maxwell House]

Outside of UK 3:1 is not much of a stretch?

Yes, that is still a pretty big stretch. And why would we want to exclude the uK from the numbers anyways? They make up 35-40% of European sales.

 

[KINGMOKU]

one thing that surprises me is that we haven't heard a peep out of ea about madden's early sales. granted, it has only been 10 days, but they were pretty quick last year to boast about their record opening. i was eager to get an early idea about how the platforms might be shaking out this time around.

I noticed that as well, and was thinking about this, when I ran into your comment.


I wonder why the silence?

 

[Dalthien]

one thing that surprises me is that we haven't heard a peep out of ea about madden's early sales. granted, it has only been 10 days, but they were pretty quick last year to boast about their record opening. i was eager to get an early idea about how the platforms might be shaking out this time around.

Well, given that NCAA 08 sales were down more than 10% from last year, it seems quite possible that Madden sales are also down from the previous year (and possibly down a significant percentage like NCAA), so if that is the case, then EA would naturally be less enthusiastic about releasing sales figures for the game. I would have to double-check the numbers, but if Madden sales do drop this year, then I think that would be the first time that has happened in a number of years.

In any case, I have no idea whether or not Madden sales are down from last year, but NCAA would seem to be a similar product, and its sales were down quite a bit this year.

 

[Fuzzy]

Was Picross DS a July release? I assume most of the sales will carry over into August, but I'd be disappointed if it couldn't beat out Hannah Montanna at this point.

July 30th (same day as Strikers) so it had less than a week of sales.

 

[iceberg187]

Well, given that NCAA 08 sales were down more than 10% from last year, it seems quite possible that Madden sales are also down from the previous year (and possibly down a significant percentage like NCAA), so if that is the case, then EA would naturally be less enthusiastic about releasing sales figures for the game. I would have to double-check the numbers, but if Madden sales do drop this year, then I think that would be the first time that has happened in a number of years.

In any case, I have no idea whether or not Madden sales are down from last year, but NCAA would seem to be a similar product, and its sales were down quite a bit this year.

Last year

1. PS2 NCAA Football 07 - 490,000
2. 360 NCAA Football 07 - 330,000
5. XBX NCAA Football 07 - 145,000

This year

1. 360 NCAA FOOTBALL 08 ELECTRONIC ARTS 1 397k
4. PS2 NCAA FOOTBALL 08 ELECTRONIC ARTS 4 236k
6. PS3 NCAA FOOTBALL 08 ELECTRONIC ARTS 6 156k

Next year should be better for them. This and Madden will do fine at Xmas time though.

 

[Odysseus]

Last year

1. PS2 NCAA Football 07 - 490,000
2. 360 NCAA Football 07 - 330,000
5. XBX NCAA Football 07 - 145,000

This year

1. 360 NCAA FOOTBALL 08 ELECTRONIC ARTS 1 397k
4. PS2 NCAA FOOTBALL 08 ELECTRONIC ARTS 4 236k
6. PS3 NCAA FOOTBALL 08 ELECTRONIC ARTS 6 156k

Next year should be better for them. This and Madden will do fine at Xmas time though.

should have had a wii sku

 

[Link]

You'd be amazed how cold most publishers STILL are on Wii. When we take out Wii projects the general attitude still seems to be the Wii is a fad, albeit a successful one, but it's time will soon pass and the accumulated audience doesn't want real, substantial games outside of first party titles.

I think this is a big reason the game industry will never be taken seriously. The people behind it are just as much shortsighted man-children as the audience being targeted.

 

[Square2005]

ioi does not have any of the required background in statistics to develop a sampling model. Not only will he be unable to find the right numbers, he'll also be unable to know whether or not he is right or wrong.

What is the CI for VG CHARTTZTZTZ? What's the PI? What's the required sample size for retailers? What's the variance in observed data?

The only way that ioi knows how good his predictions are is measuring them against known good data. NPD can tell you their margin of error for every piece of data they gather; they can not only tell you the actual sales, they can tell you exactly how certain they are that they're right.

Saying that you hope ioi gets big is like people here saying they hope Pachter is fired. If you think NPD's job is as simple as "hey EBGames how much did RE4 sell?" or that Pachter's job is "I think XBOX will sell 4 units this month", it just shows how little knowledge goes in to these types of posts.

If ioi can get NPD employers or ex-NPD employers to defect to VG Chartzzz he may be able to compete (to an extent) with the NPD Group. He does have money you know...
We need competition like Japan has not this monopoly. Anyone remember "PC Data" they tracked US sales weekly a few years back. Maybe he should contact them...

 

[AlteredBeast]

I remember the old PC Data charts that used to come out... man those were good times.

I for one hope that ioi's method and site become huge and that he can come within a good margin of error on a nationwide basis. I would gladly take free data with a +/- 10% margin for free that has complete stats like we used to get in 02/03 than this crap we get from NPD that has a whatever margin of error.

It seems like we were promised that we would be getting more data and it seems like every month is less and less...

It is crazy that since GAF agreed to stop posting all data the data that we used to get has stopped, too, despite the fact that we usually got it from a few different people. You would think there was some brave/stupid sould who would post them on some site. I bet the NPD asset protection guys that have stopped the leaks are patting themselves on the back about that one.

 

[titiklabingapat]

ioi was pretty close in predicting the Wii takeover event, but he needs work on the specific numbers. Of course, it's possible that he followed the GAF Wii takeover thread, so he's like the unofficial and much hated GAF aggregate tracker :lol

 

[Kintaro]

I think this is a big reason the game industry will never be taken seriously.

People still give a shit about this? Really?

How serious do you want a business where the entire point of it to play video games?

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

should have had a wii sku

I assume they will soon.

EA has slowly but surely been loading Sports games onto the Wii. I fully expect a NCAA game next year.

 

[Lobster]

should have had a wii sku

Didn't you hear bdoughty? Nintendo gamers don't buy yearly additions to games.

 

[pswii60]

Didn't you hear bdoughty? Nintendo gamers don't buy yearly additions to games.

Not even Mario Party?

 

[ziran]

SCE's problems are immense. Their lumbering giant can't turn on a dime. Its price is now a small problem for them, delivering the wrong experience and losing mind-share are its crippling factors.

I feel sorry for Sony fanboys. They're still in denial even though PSP was a loud warning signal. I can empathise with them to an extent, while I disliked GC, I did love N64, though I also thought Saturn and PS1 were great. Also, Nintendo had strong rivalry with Genesis so competition wasn't alien. Sony fans are going from undisputed leader to last place, with a mass market rejection of the kind of gaming they hold dear, which is proving to be a bitter pill to swallow.

RE4 Wii's success is significant. A quick port with Wii controls has already sold around half the sales of Dead Rising and Lost Planet, games with huge budgets because Capcom thought this was needed to make the most profit this gen. Expect every kind of game, in every kind of genre from most major teams on Wii, especially Japanese, though I don't expect these games to be ready until 2009.

Wii is already the dominant console this gen, by a country mile, and if you can't see it, it's because you don't want to.

Going forward, acceptance of Wii's position will happen, but equally, bitching about which is selling the best between 360 and PS3 fans will escalate.

You'd be amazed how cold most publishers STILL are on Wii. When we take out Wii projects the general attitude still seems to be the Wii is a fad, albeit a successful one, but it's time will soon pass and the accumulated audience doesn't want real, substantial games outside of first party titles.

Western companies still seem to believe big, cinematic, traditional videogames have a future outside the hardcore, when obviously they don't. Also, I think they're underestimating how much better the mass market thinks Wii controls are.

Eventually, I expect this support to be split between Wii and PS3/360, however Japanese Wii support will be much more forthcoming, and will ultimately benefit them regaining the marketshare they've lost to Western publishers outside Japan.


EDIT-

ioi was pretty close in predicting the Wii takeover event, but he needs work on the specific numbers. Of course, it's possible that he followed the GAF Wii takeover thread, so he's like the unofficial and much hated GAF aggregate tracker :lol

Yeah, I find that amusing.

For all the criticism about VGC, it's become the most quoted source for ww sell through, and I get the feeling ioi knew this, because outside the forums, which are never taken seriously, nobody was doing it the way he was.

Realistically, whatever his methods, anybody with an interest in sales knows his numbers aren't far off what the actual figures must be.

 

[Neomoto]

Can someone link the NPD responses from Nintendo, Microsoft and or Sony? I'd search in this thread but 43 pages is far to much. I'd be interesting to see what they have to say about all this.

 

[Phoenix Down]

Sonys Doing a great job moving hardware, PS2 is still moving hard.. psp, and the PS3 is doing Ok

The Ps3 is performing as it should for its situation..500 bucks and a not so great library

I would really like to see worlwide hardware numbers for july 360 vs Ps3... i bet the ps3 is spanking that ass

overall worldwide sales for july >>> NA

 

[legend166]

Sonys Doing a great job moving hardware, PS2 is still moving hard.. psp, and the PS3 is doing Ok

The Ps3 is performing as it should for its situation..500 bucks and a not so great library

I would really like to see worlwide hardware numbers for july 360 vs Ps3... i bet the ps3 is spanking that ass

overall worldwide sales for july >>> NA

*insert billymadisonmaygodhavemercyonusallspeech*

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

I'm still bitter neither Tales of the World nor Brave Story nor Riviera appeared in the PSP top10. BITTER!

 

[Tf53]

The Ps3 is performing as it should for its situation..500 bucks and a not so great library

Considering the PS3's situation (distant third), I wouldn't call having a $500 price tag and a crappy library "performing as it should".

 

[Phoenix Down]

Considering the PS3's situation (distant third), I wouldn't call having a $500 price tag and a crappy library "performing as it should".

they are distant third I agree.. but there setting up a good foundation.... I dont think MS or nin could convince as many people as sony to buy a 600/500 system..

also Sony is making alot of there money back that they lost at launch which is important there almost out of the hole with such an expensive console

Turtle and the Hare.... Sony's definately the Turtle this gen

 

[ksamedi]

For all the criticism about VGC, it's become the most quoted source for ww sell through, and I get the feeling ioi knew this, because outside the forums, which are never taken seriously, nobody was doing it the way he was.

Realistically, whatever his methods, anybody with an interest in sales knows his numbers aren't far off what the actual figures must be.

Hes not that far off from the hardware numbers, but his software numbers are still a complete joke, that said i do really wish they get better at it and track a lot of retailers so that in a year from now, we can get fairly accurate sales numbers for software and hardware from all around the world on a weekly basis. Wisfull thinking maybe but i sure hope he succeeds.

 

[womp]

they are distant third I agree.. but there setting up a good foundation.... I dont think MS or nin could convince as many people as sony to buy a 600/500 system..

also Sony is making alot of there money back that they lost at launch which is important there almost out of the hole with such an expensive console

Turtle and the Hare.... Sony's definately the Turtle this gen

Problem is that Sony (And they said this themselves, or wait maybe...That was Ken talk... ), were initially going by the Playstation brand name itself to move sales. I think that the people who own a PS3 as of now were the core intended purchasers of the system, the hardcore players who want to own it all no matter what. Sony has a history of selling high priced electronics and this is nothing different. They had their 10 year run on top of the heap in video games and figured they could pull off a "Its $600 but the faithful will buy it" kind of marketing ploy. Little do they realize that people have their limits when it comes to purchasing and obviously this didn't pan out like they thought. Its stuff like this that causes a video game crash. I honestly think there is a group percentage of Wii customers that are simply gamers who wanted in on this generation, or wanted something at least new, but couldn't buy into Sony's hype wagon.

Look how many threads we have on here alone that start with "I finally got a PS3...Now what are some good games to pick up?" Don't most people usually buy a console (Especially for $600, isn't that a gamble?) because of the games available?

BTW, the only company actually turning a profit right now is Nintendo. Hell, rumor had it they were originally going to sell the Wii for $199.99 until retailer's balked.

 

[xsarien]

they are distant third I agree.. but there setting up a good foundation.... I dont think MS or nin could convince as many people as sony to buy a 600/500 system..

The cry of the XBot last generation. Oh, how the tables have turned.

Turtle and the Hare.... Sony's definately the Turtle this gen

No, Sony is the hare. If they were the tortoise they wouldn't have so magnificently screwed up the PS3 strategy.

 

[jarrod]

Look, Capcom made a cheap ass (in terms of cost) port of RE4 to the Wii that is selling very well. So, why isn't that success offsetting the losses? It's all the 360's fault right?

Capcom's being doing really well on nearly every platform this year actually. Lost Planet, RE4 Wii, MHP 2nd, Gyakuten Saiban 4, San Andreas JP... decent sellers all around. They haven't really had a huge failure since Okami last summer/fall either, I don't think any recent losses are due to software sales as something else (maybe real estate, like in 2004).

 

[Phoenix Down]

The cry of the XBot last generation. Oh, how the tables have turned.

the tables turned? what?


No, Sony is the hare. If they were the tortoise they wouldn't have so magnificently screwed up the PS3 strategy.

por que?

 

[Count Dookkake]

Sony is the hare.

That fable is about hubris. The hare "knew" it could not be beat. It had the killer specs and it's competition was a friggin turtle. How in the hell could he lose?

But the hare did lose, because he did not take the contest or the competitor seriously.

The lessons of the fable are:

Don't underestimate your competition.

Don't make jack-assy comments to onlookers about how easily you will beat the competition.

If you think your opponent has better specs, keep trying. Eventually you will beat his ass in "competition" and you will drown in the tears of C4Lukins.

 

[ToxicAdam]

So, WW numbers have PS3 at slightly over 4 million sold at this point.
At the same point in the 360 timeline (10 months post launch) they were slightly under 4 million units sold.

I was kind of shocked to see that .. I thought the numbers would be reversed .. or even have the 360 one million ahead.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

So, WW numbers have PS3 at slightly over 4 million sold at this point.
At the same point in the 360 timeline (10 months post launch) they were slightly under 4 million units sold.

I was kind of shocked to see that .. I thought the numbers would be reversed .. or even have the 360 one million ahead.

 

[Metalmurphy]

So, WW numbers have PS3 at slightly over 4 million sold at this point.
At the same point in the 360 timeline (10 months post launch) they were slightly under 4 million units sold.

I was kind of shocked to see that .. I thought the numbers would be reversed .. or even have the 360 one million ahead.

Not only that but the 360 sales seem to have hit a wall, probably due to the heavy Channel Stuffing.

This is why i'm saying it might be a bit too soon to declare the PS3 dead.

 

[Odysseus]

Not only that but the 360 sales seem to have hit a wall, probably due to the heavy Channel Stuffing.

This is why i'm saying it might be a bit too soon to declare the PS3 dead.

i don't know, nintendo's got a wall, too. it's made out of cash and it's being called the great wall of kyoto and one day it will encircle the entire globe and what then? will ps3/360 be able to withstand the billion alpha-mom army?

 

[ToxicAdam]

Well, I will be interested to see if the PS3 can keep pace with the 360's '06 Holiday season. I find it hard to believe they can move almost 2 million units at 500-600 dollars in two months.

 

[Metalmurphy]

i don't know, nintendo's got a wall, too. it's made out of cash and it's being called the great wall of kyoto and one day it will encircle the entire globe and what then? will ps3/360 be able to withstand the billion alpha-mom army?

I didn't say the PS3 would be #1 did I? oO But tbh, a due to the Wii being mainstream and its low price, i see 2 consoles coexisting in this generation. I don't see a room for both the PS3/360 though.

 

[DuckRacer]

Not only that but the 360 sales seem to have hit a wall, probably due to the heavy Channel Stuffing.

This is why i'm saying it might be a bit too soon to declare the PS3 dead.

I don't know why people are saying that. Yes, its sales are sucking wind, and it's not going to catch up to the 360/Wii in the foreseeable future, but when I think of "dead" I think of Dreamcast. Sony is still going to support the PS3 with 1st party, and it's not like a majority of 3rd parties are going to ditch the system entirely as well.

Of course, some people have different definitions of "dead", but still.

 

[Odysseus]

I didn't say the PS3 would be #1 did I? oO But tbh, a due to the Wii being mainstream and its low price, i see 2 consoles coexisting in this generation. I don't see a room for both the PS3/360 though.

one billion alpha-moms, dude. mobilized, marching in lockstep unison. gaming will be the least of their conquests.

 

[Phoenix Down]

By the end of 2008 i believe we will have a much better understaning of where this gen will go..... well see what AAA games do for sony.. and we will see what Alan wake does for MS..........:lol

 

[Version 3.0]

I don't know why people are saying that. Yes, its sales are sucking wind, and it's not going to catch up to the 360/Wii in the foreseeable future, but when I think of "dead" I think of Dreamcast. Sony is still going to support the PS3 with 1st party, and it's not like a majority of 3rd parties are going to ditch the system entirely as well.

Of course, some people have different definitions of "dead", but still.

We'll probably see that through the whole generation. The PS3 is looking like this generation's Gamecube--the console you own primarily for the first-party content, with a few good 3rd-party games along the way. And the one that's constantly declared "dead" while it sells millions and has great games.

 

[Deku]

By the end of 2008 i believe we will have a much better understaning of where this gen will go..... well see what AAA games do for sony.. and we will see what Alan wake does for MS..........:lol

I don't disagree with you, but I suspect we'll have the same people calling for a 2009 final showdow in 2008 when things continue to look grim for them. The goal posts for the 'definitive' holiday always gets moved around. It was supposed to be 06 launch pre-E3 2006 when all 3 next-gen consoles would be on the market to fight head on, then it moved to 07 Fall.

I don't fault people for believing in a plausible scenario and it is certainly too early to call, but I think the elasticity of said goal posts hint at hope and not logic running the show.

 

[Insane Metal]

According to NPD:

June to July sales:

[NDS] 561,900
[WII] 381,800
[PSP] 290,100
[360] 198,400
[PS3] 98,500

July:

Wii 425 k
Nintendo DS 405 k
PlayStation 2 222k
PlayStation Portable 214k
Xbox 360 170k
PlayStation 3 159k
Game Boy Advance 87k

So June to July:

PS3: ~61% +
Wii: ~12% +
NDS: ~28% -
PSP: ~27% -
X360: ~15% -

 

[Saint Gregory]

Look how many threads we have on here alone that start with "I finally got a PS3...Now what are some good games to pick up?" Don't most people usually buy a console (Especially for $600, isn't that a gamble?) because of the games available?

QFT

I purchased my PS3 the day the price dropped and I still don't own a retail game for it. HS was going to be my first but now I'm reconsiderng that. Most people aren't going to do what I did.

And stop making me chuckle Odysseus.:lol

 

[Odysseus]

According to NPD:

June to July sales:

July:

So June to July:

PS3: ~61% +
Wii: ~12% +
NDS: ~28% -
PSP: ~27% -
X360: ~15% -

when in sales-age, know your retail calendars.

june covered five weeks, july four, so actual percentage changes are roughly:

nds	-10%
wii	39%
psp	-8%
360	7%
ps3	102%

 

[neptunes]

By the end of 2008 i believe we will have a much better understaning of where this gen will go..... well see what AAA games do for sony.. and we will see what Alan wake does for MS..........:lol

Weren't people saying that for last fall? or this fall 2007? when will it finally be decided? :lol

 

[Insane Metal]

when in sales-age, know your retail calendars.

june covered five weeks, july four, so actual percentage changes are roughly:

nds	-10%
wii	39%
psp	-8%
360	7%
ps3	102%

Uh, thanks for the correction!

BTW is there a reliable source to find how much the ps3 and 360 sold worldwide in the same period?

 

[sonycowboy]

I don't disagree with you, but I suspect we'll have the same people calling for a 2009 final showdow in 2008 when things continue to look grim for them. The goal posts for the 'definitive' holiday always gets moved around. It was supposed to be 06 launch pre-E3 2006 when all 3 next-gen consoles would be on the market to fight head on, then it moved to 07 Fall.

I don't fault people for believing in a plausible scenario and it is certainly too early to call, but I think the elasticity of said goal posts hint at hope and not logic running the show.

For North America

This holiday is a pivotal year and we'll see this generation's clear winner come out of it. The race for #2 is going to greatly be in the 360's favor over the 360 because of:

a) The huge deficit will take into 2009 to overcome at the absolute best

b) The momentum the 360 might get from Halo 3, Bioshock, & Mass Effect along with the price drop may well cement in many hardcore and casual gamers that the 360 is going to be their system of choice for the 360/PS3 games out there.

PS3 is absolutely going to be in a huge hole and it's going to take gargantuan effort in 2008 and beyond for them to overcome the 360 in the west.

 

[Sagitario]

I'm still bitter neither Tales of the World nor Brave Story nor Riviera appeared in the PSP top10. BITTER!

It's Tales spin-off on the PSP... did you seriously expect it on the top 10?

 

[Odysseus]

Uh, thanks for the correction!

BTW is there a reliable source to find how much the ps3 and 360 sold worldwide in the same period?

well, some sales-agers are more reliable than others and certainly better than going to some place offsite, and donny2112 has a couple graphs of note earlier in the thread:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=7544257&postcount=1060

eyeballing it (and counting nodes), it appears ps3 is slightly ahead of the pace set by 360, largely due to having a stronger presence in japan. the key is that while sony is performing in line with how 360 did, it has not yet started to really close the gap.