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[biggersmaller]

Bolded is based on what? The much touted launch-aligned lead PS4bone has on PS360? The pent up launch demand due to by far the longest generation thus far (followed by sales worse than most here would have predicted)?

I'm comfortable with the state of the market based on the solid sales numbers in the OP and elsewhere in the thread.

1. Who cares what the rationale is behind the sales. If it's pent-up demand...then it's still demand. Who gives a shit if it's pent-up.

2. LTD sales are better than I would guess most here predicted on this board, not worse. In November if I would've suggested to the 'mobil is going to destroy te world' crowd that PS4/Xbone sales would combine to be ~16 million sold-through 8 months after launch, I would've been shouted down.

 

[TSM]

But I also view the fate of the Wii's audience to be sort of irrelevant to the health of the console market.

I don't. What we end up with is a much smaller market with far less diversity in the software available. I don't see how this isn't a net negative for everyone involved.

 

[Version 3.0]

I don't see a lot of evidence that the Wii was an anomaly.

About half of the people who bought a PS1 did not own a console before. Did that make them not real gamers?

If the video game industry was shrinking, that would suggest the Wii was an anomaly. But it's not; the market the Wii helped create is still growing rapidly. The home console market specifically is shrinking, but not gaming broadly.

That's all fine and good, but since the discussion here revolves around the home console / portable console market(s), it does make the Wii an anomaly, at least in terms of the data under discussion. Its customers came and went more quickly than we've ever seen before. Sure, every console sees new customers, and one-time-only customers, but not to that degree. Customers come and go, sure. But this is the first time they've gone so fast, and not been

It's also worth noting that we actually have no proof that the Wii's customers are now gaming on phones or tablets. That's an assumption. There are more than enough people out there for it to be possible that not a single Wii customer has yet purchased a smartphone or tablet game (obviously not true, but hopefully you take the point). That could be a new market, independent of the Wii's missing one. Why should be assume that the Wii - a television-based machine whose draw was motion control and hopping around the living room - appeals to the same people as a phone game? Of course, there's inevitably some crossover, but the idea that the Wii's market moved wholesale over to phones and tablets is actually quite absurd.

An even larger, almost certainly incorrect assumption is that they're spending comparable dollars on games for those devices. Nor are they spending it in a similar fashion: that market is very different, largely whale-driven or ad-driven. Trying to define it as the same market as console gaming is quite a distortion.

 

[StevieP]

The home console market is not shrinking. Just the Wii's share of it.

The Wii was a part of the console market. It was and will be the most successful gaming console of the previous generation. This isn't rocket science. Dismissing it as you continually do to make it seem like the console market isn't facing a massive decline dismisses the fact that it was a gaming console in the first place. One that people played and purchased many games on. More of that software was third party than first party, which affects everyone. If they're gone (and I'm willing to be they're not - they've just moved on from consoles) it certainly affects everyone top-down. Including the current generation market leader. As Opiate said, people are still gaming and there are other markets that are continually growing (including mobile, PC digital, etc). This means that many people who are still gaming are moving to segments which serve them better. If you start segmenting for the sake of segmenting, then you can start segmenting every successful console in history (because they all sell well to the mass market, not just gaming enthusiasts).

I'm comfortable with the state of the market based on the solid sales numbers in the OP and elsewhere in the thread.

1. Who cares what the rationale is behind the sales. If it's pent-up demand...then it's still demand. Who gives a shit if it's pent-up.

What "pent up" generally means in this sales-age talk, I've found at least, is that demand will dry up pretty rapidly. So far, that seems to be the case as the numbers for a number 1 console haven't really been like a number one console recently.

 

[prag16]

There is no evidence whatsoever that the concept of "pent-up demand due to an overlong generation" is a thing. The good sales at launch were because for the first time there were enough consoles around to meet demand, which is always high at the start of a generation. The bad sales since launch are simply because there are no supply constraints to smooth out the sales curve.

Conjecture. (My statement admittedly contained conjecture as well.)

I'm comfortable with the state of the market based on the solid sales numbers in the OP and elsewhere in the thread.

1. Who cares what the rationale is behind the sales. If it's pent-up demand...then it's still demand. Who gives a shit if it's pent-up.

2. LTD sales are better than I would guess most here predicted on this board, not worse. In November if I would've suggested to the 'mobil is going to destroy te world' crowd that PS4/Xbone sales would combine to be ~16 million sold-through 8 months after launch, I would've been shouted down.

None of this proves "the home console market is growing or on the upswing." And don't act like the "zomg mobile" crowd was the only vocal crowd shouting pre-launch. The "PS4 will set the world on fire" crowd was equally obnoxious. I'll admit that the initial surge was more than I expected (whether it was pent up demand or plentiful supply), but the jury is still out in what exactly will happen, and to fail to recognize that many negative indicators (and indicators of a possible serious contraction) exist would be shortsighted.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

I don't. What we end up with is a much smaller market with far less diversity in the software available. I don't see how this isn't a net negative for everyone involved.

We end up with the same market we've had since the PS1 days, more or less, just getting closer and closer to saturation. Is there room for that market to grow? Absolutely - I think devs need to do a better job of attracting women in the 18-35 age range, for instance. I'm just not sure that moonshots aimed at non-adjacent demographics will ever be a sustainable way to keep the console market healthy. You can attract young women because fundamentally they're just like young men, you just need to make your games less alienating to them. Just like you can attract teenagers because fundamentally they're just like children, you just need to make your games less alienating to them. You can't do this with whichever demographic the Wii was trying to reach - basically the entire population who didn't already have a gaming console.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

The Wii was a part of the console market. It was and will be the most successful gaming console of the previous generation. This isn't rocket science. Dismissing it as you continually do to make it seem like the console market isn't facing a massive decline dismisses the fact that it was a gaming console in the first place. One that people played and purchased many games on. More of that software was third party than first party, which affects everyone. If they're gone (and I'm willing to be they're not - they've just moved on from consoles) it certainly affects everyone top-down. Including the current generation market leader. As Opiate said, people are still gaming and there are other markets that are continually growing (including mobile, PC digital, etc). This means that many people who are still gaming are moving to segments which serve them better. If you start segmenting for the sake of segmenting, then you can start segmenting every successful console in history (because they all sell well to the mass market, not just gaming enthusiasts).

The Wii was an extremely idiosyncratic console and a textbook example of an unsustainable fad.

What "pent up" generally means in this sales-age talk, I've found at least, is that demand will dry up pretty rapidly. So far, that seems to be the case as the numbers for a number 1 console haven't really been like a number one console recently.

The simpler explanation is just that these consoles weren't supply constrained. We'll see which explanation is more plausible after the holidays.

 

[biggersmaller]

None of this proves "the home console market is growing or on the upswing." And don't act like the "zomg mobile" crowd was the only vocal crowd shouting pre-launch. The "PS4 will set the world on fire" crowd was equally obnoxious. I'll admit that the initial surge was more than I expected (whether it was pent up demand or plentiful supply), but the jury is still out in what exactly will happen, and to fail to recognize that many negative indicators (and indicators of a possible serious contraction) exist would be shortsighted.

I am comfortable with the overall home console market. I believe healthy spending levels exist there based on the relatively high price of next gen consoles compared with other gaming options - price of games, and price of network usage - are not currently deterring sales. Influental customers are happy.

I based the 'upswing' comment on good hardware sales and good software sales (again, assuming all downloadable titles are absent from stats). The 'many' negative indicators are not being ignored, rather negated.

 

[CadetMahoney]

I definitely wouldn't mind more remasters, Demons Souls for example.

Sony pls, more remasters.

Sony is crushing it this gen.

Wow.

TLoU at the top?
PS4 at the top?

All is well.

How well is the PS4 doing against the Xb1? Is the gap widening to reach 2:1 sales or is it closing?

 

[StormKing]

I am comfortable with the overall home console market. I believe healthy spending levels is happening there.

I based the 'upswing' comment on good hardware sales and good software sales (again, assuming all downloadable titles are absent from stats). The 'many' negative indicators are not being ignored, rather negated.

The downloadable titles are included in the software sales.

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2014/08/12/sony-hits-10-million-mark-with-playstation-4/

 

[StevieP]

The Wii was an extremely idiosyncratic console and a textbook example of an unsustainable fad.



The simpler explanation is just that these consoles weren't supply constrained. We'll see which explanation is more plausible after the holidays.

No it was an example of a successful home console. That it waned in its final years were the fault of the platform holders and third parties being unable to engage its audience. Third parties barely ever tried. They were still handsomely rewarded dollar wise, with approximately 500 mil of the 900m pieces of software sold being theirs.

As far as the ps4 not being supply constrained? It was. For a short while. Then demand was met and the numbers we see now reflect it. We will see what it looks like as the moths go by.

I am comfortable with the overall home console market. I believe healthy spending levels is happening there.

I based the 'upswing' comment on good hardware sales and good software sales (again, assuming all downloadable titles are absent from stats). The 'many' negative indicators are not being ignored, rather negated.

Digital is counted and the tie ratio is lower than previous generation market leaders, as discussed by Donny a couple pages ago I believe.

 

[Version 3.0]

The Wii was a part of the console market. It was and will be the most successful gaming console of the previous generation. This isn't rocket science. Dismissing it as you continually do to make it seem like the console market isn't facing a massive decline dismisses the fact that it was a gaming console in the first place.

Dismissing the Wii is inaccurate, certainly, but pretending it wasn't unusual is willful ignorance. Every article celebrating the Wii's success was mostly focused on how wide a demographic it reached, and cited that as the reason for its success. Nintendo bragged about it. Their competition copied them to try and reach that demographic.

But now, they've all stopped putting any real effort into selling to that demographic.

That wasn't the only demographic that the Wii sold to, which is why it can't be entirely dismissed. But it couldn't possibly be clearer that the Wii was an anomaly. I promise you that every console publisher has removed it from any data they use to project future sales. It would be irresponsible and, quite frankly, utterly stupid not to do so.

 

[John Harker]

Ouch. Even with many of these third party games going for fire sale prices many places now? Ouch. Though I guess not really unexpected.

That wouldn't really help the publisher... publisher's customers are the retailers, not consumers. Fire sales are usually not the publisher doing BER's to drive revenue, but rather retailers slashing prices to get rid of excess stock to clear shelf space. They don't typically 'buy more' from the publisher after that.

Fact is, software sales are still poopy outside of Mario games.

 

[StevieP]

Dismissing the Wii is inaccurate, certainly, but pretending it wasn't unusual is willful ignorance. Every article celebrating the Wii's success was mostly focused on how wide a demographic it reached, and cited that as the reason for its success. Nintendo bragged about it. Their competition copied them to try and reach that demographic.

But now, they've all stopped putting any real effort into selling to that demographic.

That wasn't the only demographic that the Wii sold to, which is why it can't be entirely dismissed. But it couldn't possibly be clearer that the Wii was an anomaly. I promise you that every console publisher has removed it from any data they use to project future sales. It would be irresponsible and, quite frankly, utterly stupid not to do so.

Every successful console expands beyond the 18-34 male. If publishers are not trying to expand gaming (and you are right - they are not even really trying) then you will see that contraction take shape sooner than later across the board. They're being served elsewhere. The ps2, as an example, would not have been as successful without it's expanded focus. Every time I hear stories about how grandma only bought a Wii to play Wii bowling and then put it in the closet to gather dust, I counter that a lot of gamers must have been purchasing a ton of software to make up for those grandmas with a decent (and comparable to the ps3) tie ratio of 9. You're talking about the potential loss of a ton of customers here (and a lot of software revenue for most publishers in the console market), no matter how spin is attempted.

 

[donny2112]

If anybody from classic Sales-GAF wants to chime in, go ahead.

It was actually kind of neat. sonycowboy was the go-between NPD and NeoGAF, and we were even able to have a software prediction thread, too. Any games not in the Top 10 from the software prediction, sonycowboy was usually able to special request from NPD. It wasn't quite as easy as that may sound, but it generally worked! I don't recall a real reason for the change, but they just stopped. Don't recall if it was piecemeal or just all at once. NeoGAF was really tight on possible leakers during that period (

Spoiler

bunkum was banned for a while

), but when NPD backed out of the picture, small leaks started being allowed again until here we are today!

Thanks all for your help in getting the hardware this month!

 

[ZSaberLink]

That wouldn't really help the publisher... publisher's customers are the retailers, not consumers. Fire sales are usually not the publisher doing BER's to drive revenue, but rather retailers slashing prices to get rid of excess stock to clear shelf space. They don't typically 'buy more' from the publisher after that.

Fact is, software sales are still poopy outside of Mario games.

Well that's been known for a while, but are they any less poopy than before? I kind of assumed that the free game offer w/ Mario Kart 8 would actually cannibalize other software sales on the Wii U and wouldn't be tracked by NPD (since it'd be through the eShop).

So if I had to guess the top 5 Wii U US software LTDs, I assume 3 have Mario in the title, and another one's Nintendo Land. Is that accurate? Also, would #5 go to a non-human primate?

 

[donny2112]

And yeah, they may be influenced by the Big 3 to some extent.

NPD was putting out HW numbers.
NPD said they were going to stop putting out public HW numbers.
Gaming journalism and GAF caused an uproar.
NPD said they would continue putting out public HW numbers, as all the three publishers agreed to it.
NPD later then stopped putting out public HW numbers.

Conclusion:
One (or more) of the big three backed out of making their numbers public.

Which one stopped putting monthly numbers in PR releases? Sony.
Who has never released another NPD number in a PR, like ever, since then? Sony.
Who was the one that backed out and let NPD stop putting out HW numbers? Hmmm...

 

[metalslimer]

It was actually kind of neat. sonycowboy was the go-between NPD and NeoGAF, and we were even able to have a software prediction thread, too. Any games not in the Top 10 from the software prediction, sonycowboy was usually able to special request from NPD. It wasn't quite as easy as that may sound, but it generally worked! I don't recall a real reason for the change, but they just stopped. Don't recall if it was piecemeal or just all at once. NeoGAF was really tight on possible leakers during that period (

Spoiler

bunkum was banned for a while

), but when NPD backed out of the picture, small leaks started being allowed again until here we are today!

Thanks all for your help in getting the hardware this month!

I remember it being piece by piece. I can't remember the exact order, but I think first the top 10 got reduced to the top 5 numbers being shown. Then the hardware numbers were gone. Then all of the software numbers were gone. Then to add insult to the whole thing, they combined the top 10 without an individual top 10. On the bright side, they at least left us with a ranking order.

NPD was putting out HW numbers.
NPD said they were going to stop putting out public HW numbers.
Gaming journalism and GAF caused an uproar.
NPD said they would continue putting out public HW numbers, as all the three publishers agreed to it.
NPD later then stopped putting out public HW numbers.

Conclusion:
One (or more) of the big three backed out of making their numbers public.

Which one stopped putting monthly numbers in PR releases? Sony.
Who has never released another NPD number in a PR, like ever, since then? Sony.
Who was the one that backed out and let NPD stop putting out HW numbers? Hmmm...

Yeah it was pretty clear that Sony was the one who was behind the NPD hardware dying. I remember MS was starting to do really well with Kinect, and Nintendo, even though they were down, was still doing fine.

 

[Dragon]

NPD was putting out HW numbers.
NPD said they were going to stop putting out public HW numbers.
Gaming journalism and GAF caused an uproar.
NPD said they would continue putting out public HW numbers, as all the three publishers agreed to it.
NPD later then stopped putting out public HW numbers.

Conclusion:
One (or more) of the big three backed out of making their numbers public.

Which one stopped putting monthly numbers in PR releases? Sony.
Who has never released another NPD number in a PR, like ever, since then? Sony.
Who was the one that backed out and let NPD stop putting out HW numbers? Hmmm...

Quite an assumption!

 

[StevieP]

Quite an assumption!

No, not really.

 

[Version 3.0]

Every successful console expands beyond the 18-34 male. If publishers are not trying to expand gaming (and you are right - they are not even really trying) then you will see that contraction take shape sooner than later across the board. They're being served elsewhere. The ps2, as an example, would not have been as successful without it's expanded focus. Every time I hear stories about how grandma only bought a Wii to play Wii bowling and then put it in the closet to gather dust, I counter that a lot of gamers must have been purchasing a ton of software to make up for those grandmas with a decent (and comparable to the ps3) tie ratio of 9. You're talking about the potential loss of a ton of customers here (and a lot of software revenue for most publishers in the console market), no matter how spin is attempted.

All true (except for the bolded, maybe), but you can't look at a line graph, see that incredible mountain, and tell me the Wii was just another normal console. Look at Nintendo's financials, for Pete's sake. It looks like the EKG of someone birthing an Alien xenomorph.

As for the bolded: I don't think so. Nintendo made a killing, and a couple other publishers had a hit or two (most notably Ubisoft with Just Dance), but on the whole, I thought they were not making much off the Wii (and didn't deserve to, but that's another topic). The death of the Wii was absolutely not a blow for "most publishers". Not even close.

 

[Birgitte2004]

The Wii gamers are still in the market. They are just mobile gamers now. Gaming as a whole is growing. The growth is just not in the home console market.

Neither my parents, nor my aunts and uncles ever play mobile games.

I realize I'm talking anecdotal evidence and all, but I find it difficult to believe that my family is a total anomaly, and everybody else who bought a Wii is playing mobile games.

 

[StevieP]

All true (except for the bolded, maybe), but you can't look at a line graph, see that incredible mountain, and tell me the Wii was just another normal console. Look at Nintendo's financials, for Pete's sake. It looks like the EKG of someone birthing an Alien xenomorph.

As for the bolded: I don't think so. Nintendo made a killing, and a couple other publishers had a hit or two (most notably Ubisoft with Just Dance), but on the whole, I thought they were not making much off the Wii (and didn't deserve to, but that's another topic). The death of the Wii was absolutely not a blow for "most publishers". Not even close.

As Opiate said on the previous page - the growth was not abnormally large for any other market leader that was growing the console gaming population. A few percentiles more he said.

As far as third party publishers? According to the numbers (namely the amount of pieces of software sold for them being somewhere between 5-600 million) they made quite a bit of bank, despite their often atrocious efforts on the market leading console. If that bank is now gone from the console market as it seems, then it's bad for the console market. No two ways around it, no matter which name is on the front of the box or what one tries to dismiss. Dollars and cents can't be dismissed.

 

[Version 3.0]

As Opiate said on the previous page - the growth was not abnormally large for any other market leader that was growing the console gaming population. A few percentiles more he said.

If he says so. But there's one glaring difference - that growth is gone, and it disappeared only a few years later. Whether you want to call it abnormal on the growth or abnormal shrink make little difference. I will point out that it was called abnormal while it was occurring.

As far as third party publishers? According to the numbers (namely the amount of pieces of software sold for them being somewhere between 5-600 million) they made quite a bit of bank, despite their often atrocious efforts on the market leading console. If that bank is now gone from the console market as it seems, then it's bad for the console market. No two ways around it, no matter which name is on the front of the box or what one tries to dismiss. Dollars and cents can't be dismissed.

Unit sales do not equal profit. Very few publishers had anything nice to say about the Wii in their financials. At best, they treated it as a nice little side market of their main business. Many were quite dismissive of it, and of course, many didn't support it at all.

 

[ZSaberLink]

If he says so. But there's one glaring difference - that growth is gone, and it disappeared only a few years later. Whether you want to call it abnormal on the growth or abnormal shrink make little difference. I will point out that it was called abnormal while it was occurring.




Unit sales do not equal profit. Very few publishers had anything nice to say about the Wii in their financials. At best, they treated it as a nice little side market of their main business. Many were quite dismissive of it, and of course, many didn't support it at all.

Maybe in later years, but how many times did they actually put efforts into the titles they produced there? Carnival Games on Wii funded a bunch of Take-Two's bigger titles on 360/PS3. Resident Evil 4 Wii led to Umbrella Chronicles led to Darkside, whose sales were bad enough that Capcom basically backed off of the Wii with RE. Dead Space Extraction tried to cash in on a supposed on-rails shooter market that clearly wasn't as large they expected.

EA's Tiger Woods games sold better on Wii (until about 2008-2009) because they put effort into it. In general, the vast majority of the initial third party efforts on Wii were cash-ins and consumers got ticked off and probably didn't risk buying too many others. However, they still sold tons of software. The notion that software didn't sell well on Wii and that it was a complete fad is kind of BS. Third parties threw generally cheap games at it, made tons of money, and then eventually that well ran dry before they really tried anything of much worth (I think EA might have been one of the few exceptions here, as Madden & Tiger Woods actually seemed to be decent efforts the first couple years at least).

Yep, it's true. Wii data isn't used for benchmarking. And that impacts maybe Just Dance, the Skylanders and Infinity stuff and... and well that's about it for the third parties.

The Wii installed base was buying about 1 game per year. A majority of those sales were 1st party software.

The loss of the Wii was far less painful for third parties than many want to believe.

Would a strong Nintendo be great for the industry overall? Absolutely. Of course! No one is better at making video games than Nintendo.

But the idea that the Wii exiting the market has had this horrific impact on the industry is misguided. Rising development costs have been far more damaging.

Of course it's not misguided. Nintendo is one of the few companies that's somewhat successful at targeting outside of the 18-34 male demographic. Someone like Nintendo is needed in the grand scheme of things, and honestly there are only a couple games at all outside of Nintendo's that service something outside of that industry (younger kids with Skylanders & Disney & Lego and what's left of Just Dance). The industry failed to keep the Wii gamers on consoles. While it's not entirely their fault (at least MS tried), Apple/Google/Samsung completely killed them in this space somewhat accidentally.

 

[CosmicQueso]

I promise you that every console publisher has removed it from any data they use to project future sales

Yep, it's true. Wii data isn't used for benchmarking. And that impacts maybe Just Dance, the Skylanders and Infinity stuff and... and well that's about it for the third parties.

Since 2011, the Wii installed base was buying about 1 game or less per year. A majority of those sales were 1st party software.

The loss of the Wii was far less painful for third parties than many want to believe.

Would a strong Nintendo be great for the industry overall? Absolutely. Of course! No one is better at making video games than Nintendo.

But the idea that the Wii exiting the market has had this horrific impact on the industry is misguided. Rising development costs have been far more damaging.

 

[StevieP]

If he says so. But there's one glaring difference - that growth is gone, and it disappeared only a few years later. Whether you want to call it abnormal on the growth or abnormal shrink make little difference. I will point out that it was called abnormal while it was occurring.




Unit sales do not equal profit. Very few publishers had anything nice to say about the Wii in their financials. At best, they treated it as a nice little side market of their main business. Many were quite dismissive of it, and of course, many didn't support it at all.

Those people are likely currently being served better elsewhere.

The publishers were dismissive because they never wanted to support the box for the most part. They hedged their beta elsewhere, and that showed for better or worse. Doesn't mean that bank wasn't made, because the numbers don't lie and publishers threw a ton of cheap crap on the box. If you want to start disseminating profits (or lack thereof) based on some kind of agenda, feel free to start with every other generation as well. The 20 dollar shovelware and other budget lines of successful software isn't anything new for the most successful consoles of their respective generations. In previous generations, I recall sales agera calling those who tried to make that distinction "fanboys" because software sales were solid numbers to stand by.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

NPD was putting out HW numbers.
NPD said they were going to stop putting out public HW numbers.
Gaming journalism and GAF caused an uproar.
NPD said they would continue putting out public HW numbers, as all the three publishers agreed to it.
NPD later then stopped putting out public HW numbers.

Conclusion:
One (or more) of the big three backed out of making their numbers public.

Which one stopped putting monthly numbers in PR releases? Sony.
Who has never released another NPD number in a PR, like ever, since then? Sony.
Who was the one that backed out and let NPD stop putting out HW numbers? Hmmm...

yeah I remember they started the trend of counting Vita with PSP numbers
even now that they are leading the market at home keeping the numbers from public eye does help all 3 spin PR anyway they want

NPD use to be the most exciting thing each month for a while there even crashed NeoGAF on those days

I miss real numbers

 

[Aquamarine]

Still I'm still having issues with the notion that the data NPD gets on video games really is that time intensive to create and get. I'm sure they have a computer system set up with the data that comes in from the individual retailers. Like I said before, NPD tracks a lot more than videogames so these hardware/software numbers are just a very small percentage of what they do. Actually, does someone have info on NPD's financials? It would be interesting to know they kind of profit they are pulling right now.

I thought they only tracked big retailers like Walmart, best buy, Gamestop, etc. Do they they track online retailers? If someone with a better grasp on NPD tasks hardwares sales could help, it would be a big help.

They track a whole bunch of retailers depending on the situation. Wal-Mart, Best Buy, GameStop, etc. (and their online equivalents) comprise 90% of the potential marketshare. However, NPD considers each release carefully and tailors its 100% market extrapolation depending the factors unique to it.

For example, if NPD wanted to track a niche game like Drakengard 3 that's primarily sold through Square Enix's store, they will reach out for sales numbers from Square Enix's digital marketplace. They don't just aggregate POS information from large retailers and call it a day. A lot of careful research goes into the creation of NPD's estimates. That's why they're definitive.

Video game sales are only a small subset of NPD's total data tracking services...true...but The NPD Group is quite large. They have 1,297 employees on Linkedin. That's a ton of overhead, so I wouldn't be surprised if they made an 8-figure income every year.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Of course it's not misguided. Someone like Nintendo is needed in the grand scheme of things, and honestly there are only a couple games at all outside of Nintendo's that service something outside of that industry (younger kids with Skylanders & Disney & Lego and what's left of Just Dance). The industry failed to keep the Wii gamers on consoles. While it's not entirely their fault (at least MS tried), Apple/Google/Samsung completely killed them in this space somewhat accidentally.

But the third parties have followed those people to where they're playing now, and many are doing very well in that space. Skylanders has a tablet version of the full console game coming out this year.

Third parties have adapted and total consumer spend across all categories has increased.

Look at the earnings of ATVI or EA or Take 2... these are not companies that are reeling from the loss of the Wii. These are companies that have adapted and are doing very well. The one company that was really hurt by the decline of the Wii was Nintendo, that's it.

 

[metalslimer]

They track a whole bunch of retailers depending on the situation. Wal-Mart, Best Buy, GameStop, etc. (and their online equivalents) comprise 90% of the potential marketshare. However, NPD considers each release carefully and tailors its 100% market extrapolation depending the factors unique to it.

For example, if NPD wanted to track a niche game like Drakengard 3 that's primarily sold through Square Enix's store, they will reach out for sales numbers through Square Enix's digital marketplace. They don't just aggregate POS information from large retailers and call it a day. A lot of careful research goes into the creation of NPD's estimates. That's why they're definitive.

Video game sales are only a small subset of NPD's total data tracking services...true...but The NPD Group is quite large. They have 1,297 employees on Linkedin. That's a ton of overhead, so I wouldn't be surprised if they made an 8-figure income every year.

Thanks, while I may disagree with the need to hide as much data as they do, I can see a little why they think it is so important to hide.

I do have a question though. Can first parties release whatever info they want from NPD with no repercussions? For example Nintendo released their software sales data, and other first parties do the same.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Every successful console expands beyond the 18-34 male.

What evidence do you have for this?

 

[CosmicQueso]

I do have a question though. Can first parties release whatever info they want from NPD with no repercussions? For example Nintendo released their software sales data, and other first parties do the same.

Sure. So could third parties. It is their data to share. They own it.

What evidence do you have for this?

Off the top of my head, a large number of PS2s and PS3s were purchased by people well outside the normal gaming demographic due to multimedia capabilities. NDS and 3DS had a larger share of 35+ females than is normal. But that younger demographic has moved to tablet and mobile devices. Either they'll graduate to a console experience or they won't.

 

[StevieP]

What evidence do you have for this?

Are you joking?

 

[Amir0x]

Dismissing the Wii is inaccurate, certainly, but pretending it wasn't unusual is willful ignorance. Every article celebrating the Wii's success was mostly focused on how wide a demographic it reached, and cited that as the reason for its success. Nintendo bragged about it. Their competition copied them to try and reach that demographic.

But now, they've all stopped putting any real effort into selling to that demographic.

That wasn't the only demographic that the Wii sold to, which is why it can't be entirely dismissed. But it couldn't possibly be clearer that the Wii was an anomaly. I promise you that every console publisher has removed it from any data they use to project future sales. It would be irresponsible and, quite frankly, utterly stupid not to do so.

Fundamentally, the Wii U gimmick is simply not very appealing to most people. At least, not appealing enough to be worth giving up all the other stuff people gain from buying an XBO or PS4. That is the reason Wii U is not a success right now, above anything else. If you're going to make trade offs in some areas, you have to make sure what you're trading for is worth it. You don't trade Willie Mays for fuckin' Marv Throneberry.

NPD was putting out HW numbers.
NPD said they were going to stop putting out public HW numbers.
Gaming journalism and GAF caused an uproar.
NPD said they would continue putting out public HW numbers, as all the three publishers agreed to it.
NPD later then stopped putting out public HW numbers.

Conclusion:
One (or more) of the big three backed out of making their numbers public.

Which one stopped putting monthly numbers in PR releases? Sony.
Who has never released another NPD number in a PR, like ever, since then? Sony.
Who was the one that backed out and let NPD stop putting out HW numbers? Hmmm...

Yup. Was pretty shitty of Sony.

In any event, I hope they start getting the appropriate big games out to all markets. This July month's numbers were nothing to be proud of for any of the three, including Sony. August is gonna be much worse most likely. Destiny month should prop em all back up, but they gotta stay on the ball. In Japan, they need a fire lit under their ass, although I'm not sure what can really make consoles a phenomenon in that territory any more. It'll probably always be relegated to invisible status without some interesting gimmick to draw attention.

 

[A Human Becoming]

yeah I remember they started the trend of counting Vita with PSP numbers
even now that they are leading the market at home keeping the numbers from public eye does help all 3 spin PR anyway they want

Playstation Family forever.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Off the top of my head, a large number of PS2s and PS3s were purchased by people well outside the normal gaming demographic due to multimedia capabilities.

Enough to play a significant role in those consoles' success? I doubt it.

 

[AniHawk]

Quite an assumption!

wouldn't be the first time. see also: e3 2007 and 2008.

 

[heidern]

If you want to judge the impact of the collapse in Wii sales then you can do that by looking at any previously Wii third parties that have shut down or cut back on the scope or number of games they develop. The near total collapse of Sony's handheld business will also have had an impact as will have the big decline in Nintendos handheld business.

The above 3 bubbles may be joined by what may well have been an Xbox bubble(maybe partly/mostly a Kinect bubble). Then there's the collapse over 2 generations in Sony's Japanese console business(perhaps largely a transition to handhelds or partly due to unsustainable game development although there could have been a bubble element too).

 

[Amir0x]

With so many bubbles, the pop is gonna decimate the world

 

[AniHawk]

If you want to judge the impact of the collapse in Wii sales then you can do that by looking at any previously Wii third parties that have shut down or cut back on the scope or number of games they develop. The near total collapse of Sony's handheld business will also have had an impact as will have the big decline in Nintendos handheld business.

The above 3 bubbles may be joined by what may well have been an Xbox bubble(maybe partly/mostly a Kinect bubble). Then there's the collapse over 2 generations in Sony's Japanese console business(perhaps largely a transition to handhelds or partly due to unsustainable game development although there could have been a bubble element too).

that sony console fad in japan was a real headscratcher. the audience was there for really only what, 10 years max? man what a fad.

 

[SwiftDeath]

With so many bubbles, the pop is gonna decimate the world

There is not so much a grand pop of some bubble as there has been a consistent and ever impending decline in lower tier developers as budgets continue their march upwards. Mid-tier studios have already almost entirely collapsed and these include studios that developed mostly for the PS and XB ecosystems.

The continual decrease in software diversity is in my mind what will hurt these consoles chances going forward the most and why both Sony and MS [and Nintendo I guess] are so strongly going after indies because they understand how important they are to try and stop at least some of the bleeding

 

[shinra-bansho]

Thank you, name redacted to protect source.

TTM for handhelds continues to drop.

-----

I'm of the belief that Sony's handheld business has collapsed into Nintendo's handheld business.

You're clearly working very hard to set the Wii aside as an "other" -- gamers who played on them were not "real" console gamers, according to you. They deserve a separate classification separate from everyone else, even though the Wii fits every reasonable definition of "video game console" I can find.

I understand that this helps you avoid saying that the console market is declining, but it's not a rational position to take.

TBH this is something of a strawman argument. Anyone who plays games is a gamer, but the Wii was serving a variety of demographic groups that weren't previously a huge part of the console space.

There doesn't need to be any insinuation of people who bought the Wii not being "real" gamers by suggesting that segmentation of the market provides a better view of what's happening. That segmentation should probably also be applied to the other console ecosystems though, I suppose. From there, we can see which publishers for instance will be materially impacted by the contraction in the console space.

For instance, EA's revenue from Nintendo systems hasn't been substantial for a long time now, from memory.

 

[Amir0x]

There is not so much a grand pop of some bubble as there has been a consistent and ever impending decline in lower tier developers as budgets continue their march upwards. Mid-tier studios have already almost entirely collapsed and these include studios that developed mostly for the PS and XB ecosystems.

The continual decrease in software diversity is in my mind what will hurt these consoles chances going forward the most and why both Sony and MS [and Nintendo I guess] are so strongly going after indies because they understand how important they are to try and hemorrhage at least some of the bleeding

Yeah, I have loved the push toward indies. It also seems all parties (save Nintendo yet, as far as I can tell) are more frequently now going amongst the indies and selecting a few to develop games with a higher budget, reviving the category of AA games

 

[SwiftDeath]

Yeah, I have loved the push toward indies. It also seems all parties (save Nintendo yet, as far as I can tell) are more frequently now going amongst the indies and selecting a few to develop games with a higher budget, reviving the category of AA games

They seem to be trying. Sony perhaps has shown the largest push in that specific manner, hopefully we see further attempts by MS, I think we will.

The loss in diversity is fairly massive though so I'm not sure where we'll end up

 

[StevieP]

They seem to be trying. Sony perhaps has shown the largest push in that specific manner, hopefully we see further attempts by MS, I think we will.

The loss in diversity is fairly massive though so I'm not sure where we'll end up

Diversity? Pfff. The 18-34 year old male gamer is being catered to well already so you'll definitely see 150+ million ps4s sold over the next half decade or so. That's the only demographic that previous leading consoles relied on for success.

 

[RealityPales]

Diversity? Pfff. The 18-34 year old male gamer is being catered to well already so you'll definitely see 150+ million ps4s sold over the next half decade or so.

That's... A lot.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

With so many bubbles, the pop is gonna decimate the world

just 10% is nothing man

 

[AniHawk]

just 10% is nothing man

is it reduce to 10% or reduce 10% of?

 

[Amir0x]

They seem to be trying. Sony perhaps has shown the largest push in that specific manner, hopefully we see further attempts by MS, I think we will.

The loss in diversity is fairly massive though so I'm not sure where we'll end up

It goes without saying it's going to take a ton of resuscitation. I'm not sure how much money Sony has to do it, and how much Microsoft is willing to invest, to make a real go at it. Nintendo of course would have to seriously get involved too.

It may be painful at first, but like you I think it is necessary. Whole legions of gamers are fleeing the market, their idiosyncratic tastes no longer catered to, while a mass of congregates sit at the center of the market, their mass market needs always met, path-of-least-resistance AAA cinematic games everywhere. I guess that's a bit melodramatic and cynical, but the picture being painted these days ain't pretty in my view. Indies have been a sort of savior for me.