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[Sho_Nuff82]

Yes but hardware is still the entry fee for your games. Its games what people want to buy and play not the hardware. And yes the entry fee is way to high for the few games that are on the market at the moment. Nintendo probably should pay third parties to port games on their platforms to minimize financial risk for the third parties (wont happen under iwata).

The argument that "hardware doesn't matter" must always come with caveats. The hardware of the Wii and Wii U prevent a large number of games from being created or ported to them. For the Wii, this didn't matter because the motion gaming experience was more desirable for a larger audience than the traditional experiences MS/Sony were offering at high prices...for a time. For the Wii U, this matters significantly more, as Nintendo has positioned it as a traditional gaming device with a traditional input. It is objectively worse head to head against last gen and next devices in online gaming, and objectively worse graphically than a console just $100 more expensive with more and better software support. That is a huge problem.

Even though i agree that ndcube and monolith is not enough that doesnt mean that the acquisitions were flops. nd cube is basically the ex mario party team from hudson and they did have a lot of multi million seller hits. Wii party u is also a title that is important for nintendo beyond whatever the first month or week sales is. They need to have games like that on the market to attract certain demographics.

About monolith.. Well xenoblade was an awesme game imho. Too bad you refuse to try it just because NOA is too arrogant to bring it over and retail it properly.

I'm not speaking on the quality of their output. I'm saying that these are not the kind of acquisitions that will significantly change Nintendo's position in the market. Especially since Nintendo has been historically reluctant to bring games to the West for arbitrary reasons. A western acquisition or talent buildup is long overdue.

And come on... Saying MS idid a better job with cultivating first party studios is a joke.

MS' investment in the Xbox platform isn't limited to their own dev studios. MS has Forza and Killer Instinct at launch, is publishing Dead Rising, Ryse, and Crimson Dragon, moneyhatted Titanfall and Peggle 2, moneyhatted CoD and BF4 content, and has Halo 5, Project Spark, Fantasia, Kinect Sports, D4, Quantum Break, Sunset Overdrive and Fable Legends in the pipeline. And on top of that, due to job postings we know what studios they have been hiring for, and generally what they're working on. Objectively, it at least appears that they are fully prepared to support the new Xbox with content, far moreso than Nintendo, whose first 10 months of 2013 gave us the following AAA titles due to self-publishing or moneyhats...Lego City, MonHun, Pikmin, Wii Party U, and Wind Waker HD.

Despite the nightmare MS has had with hardware and services this year, they've still thrown a dumptruck of money into ensuring there are no software droughts in the first year of Xbone. Nintendo needed a similar commitment even more since they have zero 3rd party support other than Lego games lined up after Watch Dogs next year.

 

[H_Prestige]

It's a terrible, terrible thing to do. What about the games already available which needs the gamepad like ZombiU, Lego City Undercover, TW101, NintendoLand, Deus Ex HR and the games currently developped for the plateform. Nintendo can't break the compability of the games like that and updating the games isn't a solution either (because it can modify a lot the experience).

Put a disclaimer saying those games require the gamepad, sold separately? What's worse, breaking out of box compatibility with, like, three whole games, or letting the system die?

 

[Tratorn]

Probably asked already, but are there any hints about the PS4 sales in the first 24 hours? Or if not, can we expect to get them some time soon?

 

[Yanikun]

Your arguments are pure wishful thinking, basically you are ignoring reality, the evidence is right infront of you.

Show me the evidence I'm supposedly missing then, as I'm pretty confident I see everything that's happening. I've been following sales threads very closely before the Wii U entered the picture, so I'm not speaking as a guy who started following sales when a system he likes was released. I've followed the Vita's performance every step of the way and I heard people in MC threads being told exactly what you're saying right now, that they're ignoring reality and all that, and turns out the people who said that have since changed their tune, moved the goal posts, or have quietly exited the threads.

So I'm not saying the Wii U will be a success. I'm just calling out the short-sighted arguments when I see them, because I heard them all last year.

 

[Pie and Beans]

So I'm not saying the Wii U will be a success. I'm just calling out the short-sighted arguments when I see them, because I heard them all last year.

I don't think you can call arguments based on a sliding trend graph going back 20-30 years and WiiU sales also plotted directly on graphs for all to see alongside other terminal consoles too as short sighted when your own counter argument is quite simply "maybe a miracle will happen".

Now you can call yourself the optimist of the thread, sure, but historical data is kind of heaping up against you as well as the fact that if Nintendo were changing things RIGHT now, we'd know about it and those things would take 1.5-2 years to even bare fruit.

 

[opticalmace]

Show me the evidence I'm supposedly missing then, as I'm pretty confident I see everything that's happening. I've been following sales threads very closely before the Wii U entered the picture, so I'm not speaking as a guy who started following sales when a system he likes was released. I've followed the Vita's performance every step of the way and I heard people in MC threads being told exactly what you're saying right now, that they're ignoring reality and all that, and turns out the people who said that have since changed their tune, moved the goal posts, or have quietly exited the threads.

So I'm not saying the Wii U will be a success. I'm just calling out the short-sighted arguments when I see them, because I heard them all last year.

Regarding people moving to mobile, one indication is the fact that iOS-device sales have exploded in the last few years. Obviously it's not 1:1, and I'm just speculating, but it's accepted that a big fraction of the Wii audience were non-traditional gamers. I don't think it's a big leap to say that a healthy fraction of that audience would buy (e.g.) an iPad before a Wii U, and have done so. I think Nintendo tried to repeat the Wii success but showed up far too late to the tablet/touch party.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Show me the evidence I'm supposedly missing then, as I'm pretty confident I see everything that's happening. I've been following sales threads very closely before the Wii U entered the picture, so I'm not speaking as a guy who started following sales when a system he likes was released. I've followed the Vita's performance every step of the way and I heard people in MC threads being told exactly what you're saying right now, that they're ignoring reality and all that, and turns out the people who said that have since changed their tune, moved the goal posts, or have quietly exited the threads.

So I'm not saying the Wii U will be a success. I'm just calling out the short-sighted arguments when I see them, because I heard them all last year.

The biggest piece of evidence is the drop off from NSMB Wii to NSMB U. 30 million plus to less than 4 million is unprecedented... unless you look at the drop off of the Brain Training, Nintendogs and now, Wii Party franchises. It will also be interesting to see if the free trial of Wii Fit U does anything at all.

 

[speculawyer]

I'm curious because I never hear about it...did Disney Infinity fall off the face of the earth? It seemed like such a sure thing, but I realized it came and went and I can't recall any news about it.

Lots of the product are on the Amazon top 100. It didn't chart this month but they are certainly moving some product.

It would be interesting to know how it has done compared to Skylanders SWAP force as that is the obvious battle there.

 

[Yanikun]

I don't think you can call arguments based on a sliding trend graph going back 20-30 years and WiiU sales also plotted directly on graphs for all to see alongside other terminal consoles too as short sighted when your own counter argument is quite simply "maybe a miracle will happen".

Now you can call yourself the optimist of the thread, sure, but historical data is kind of heaping up against you as well as the fact that if Nintendo were changing things RIGHT now, we'd know about it and those things would take 1.5-2 years to even bare fruit.

If I dug deep enough, I'm pretty sure I could find the exact same post in an MC thread with Vita instead of Wii U and Sony instead of Nintendo. Turns out it didn't take 2 years for Sony and others to do more with the Vita. Also turns out every system is different and people couldn't accurately predict shit by looking at the performances of entirely different systems in entirely different times and situations.

And I don't consider myself the optimist of the thread, because the words optimist and pessimist are stupid. If you're not trying to be a realist then it's pretty much saying you're trying to be wrong. But there's reality and then Gaf-reality. It's like, if some people on here were the CEO's, they'd either not do anything and go "oh well, shit happens," or panic and go bankrupt through uninspired actions. I think it's completely realistic to say that the Wii U venture is not done. You should bookmark this thread (or others like it, whether we're talking Sony, Nintendo or Microsoft, depending on the seasonal flavor) and read it again in one, two, three years, and I guarantee you it will make for an interesting read.

 

[Shiggy]

Those expecting Wii U sales to increase to higher levels, why do you think so? 4 months ago people told me to wait until W101, Pikmin 3, Zelda, and Wii Party U are released - sales would increase significantly. A few months later those titles are out and the Wii U is still in a miserable position. But now Wii Fit U, Mario 3D World, and MK8 will save the system.

Why exactly are you thinking that will be the case? Wii Fit U looks pretty much the same as its predecessor. Why would the casual audience buy it when it already had the software a few years ago and when it does not bring a lot of new things to the table? Why will Mario 3D World and MK8 fare any better than NSMBU?

The Wii U has a major issue as its software library is extremely limited. There's no 3rd party support (and for 2014 even less than none). The first party software mostly consists of games that have been done before with nothing that really captures the audience or even shows the use of the Gamepad. The system itself is also botched; the hardware power cannot compete with that of the other next generation platforms and the system lacks standard features.

Unless we see a major price drop to $100-150, I cannot see a decent increase in sales.

 

[theprodigy]

If I dug deep enough, I'm pretty sure I could find the exact same post with Vita instead of Wii U and Sony instead of Nintendo. Turns out it didn't take 2 years for Sony and others to do more with the Vita. Also turns out every system is different and people couldn't accurately predict shit by looking at the performances of entirely different systems in entirely different times and situations.

And I don't consider myself the optimist of the thread, because the words optimist and pessimist are stupid. If you're not trying to be a realist then it's pretty much saying you're trying to be wrong. But there's reality and then Gaf-reality. It's like, if some people on here were the CEO's, they'd either not do anything and go "oh well, shit happens," or panic and go bankrupt through uninspired actions. I think it's completely realistic to say that the Wii U venture is not done. You should bookmark this thread (or others like it, whether we're talking Sony, Nintendo or Microsoft, depending on the seasonal flavor) and read it again in one, two, three years, and I guarantee you it will make for an interesting read.

.....I don't recall anyone declaring Vita a successful turnaround
in fact I'm pretty sure we've officially declared it dead outside of Japan

When was the last time game X ever saved a system that was in trouble? Games sometime stem the flow or put up a fight but never outright save a machine.

Spoiler

X to save Wii U confirmed, Monolith Soft for GOAT

 

[Warm Machine]

When was the last time game X ever saved a system that was in trouble? Games sometime stem the flow or put up a fight but never outright save a machine.

 

[ascii42]

When was the last time game X ever saved a system that was in trouble? Games sometime stem the flow or put up a fight but never outright save a machine.

I can't remember how the PSP was doing in Japan prior to Monster Hunter, but if ever there was a single game to save a system, that would probably be it.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

If I dug deep enough, I'm pretty sure I could find the exact same post with Vita instead of Wii U and Sony instead of Nintendo. Turns out it didn't take 2 years for Sony and others to do more with the Vita. Also turns out every system is different and people couldn't accurately predict shit by looking at the performances of entirely different systems in entirely different times and situations.

And I don't consider myself the optimist of the thread, because the words optimist and pessimist are stupid. If you're not trying to be a realist then it's pretty much saying you're trying to be wrong. But there's reality and then Gaf-reality. It's like, if some people on here were the CEO's, they'd either not do anything and go "oh well, shit happens," or panic and go bankrupt through uninspired actions. I think it's completely realistic to say that the Wii U venture is not done. You should bookmark this thread (or others like it, whether we're talking Sony, Nintendo or Microsoft, depending on the seasonal flavor) and read it again in one, two, three years, and I guarantee you it will make for an interesting read.

The Vita went from flatlining ww to barely showing a pulse in a single region. It's still dead here with no hope of a recovery and no relevant software aimed at North America in 2014, unless you count the years late port of Borderlands 2.

When people make predictions, obviously they rely heavily on current data, past trends, and assumptions on future trends. When a company does something desperate, like Nintendo slashing the 3DS from $250 to $170, or Sony ripping the innards out of the PS3 and eating billions in losses to get it to $299...these kinds of moves can't really be predicted reliably. So yes, Nintendo could theoretically drop the Wii U price to $150 tomorrow and give away 10 free games to early adopters and moneyhat GTA6 and drastically change the next gen landscape. But I'm not going to argue from a position that assumes that is a reality and say "Nintendo is doing just fine."

 

[Chris1964]

When was the last time game X ever saved a system that was in trouble? Games sometime stem the flow or put up a fight but never outright save a machine.

Japan and Monster Hunter Portable

 

[AniHawk]

When was the last time game X ever saved a system that was in trouble? Games sometime stem the flow or put up a fight but never outright save a machine.

nintendogs really did the trick. in every region it released in, the ds stopped doing its best gamecube impersonation and started to sell on par with or better than the psp (which had a very strong 2005).

 

[Road]

Wii Sports saved the Wii before it was even released!

Probably asked already, but are there any hints about the PS4 sales in the first 24 hours? Or if not, can we expect to get them some time soon?

No idea. The only indication we have of PS4 sales are Battlefield 4 players:

http://bf4stats.com/

Can we see similar stats for KSF or CODG?

 

[Refreshment.01]

nintendogs really did the trick. in every region it released in, the ds stopped doing its best gamecube impersonation and started to sell on par with or better than the psp (which had a very strong 2005).

Ninten U Dog. Coming to U in 2014?

 

[ZSaberLink]

Aquamarine here with more numbers to add to the TOP 10!!!!!!

ARE YOU READY!?!??!

1. Grand Theft Auto V (360, PS3) - 1.1 million
2. Pokémon X (3DS) - >1.7 million combined with Pokemon Y
3. Pokémon Y (3DS) - See Pokemon X
4. Battlefield 4 (360, PS3, PC) - 825,000-850,000
5. Batman: Arkham Origins (360, PS3, Wii U, PC) - <650,000 (PS3 + 360 = 98.2%, Wii U = 1.8%)
6. Assassin’s Creed IV, Black Flag (360, PS3, Wii U) - <630,000 (Wii U = 1%)
7. NBA 2K14 (360, PS3, PC)
8. Skylanders: Swap Force (Wii, 360, PS3, Wii U, 3DS) - <320,000
9. Lego Marvel Super Heroes (360, PS3, Wii U, 3DS, PC)
10. WWE 2K14 (360, PS3)
XX. Madden NFL 25 (360, PS3) - >150,000
XX. Just Dance 2014 (360, PS3, Wii U, Wii) - <150,000
XX: Beyond: Two Souls (PS3) - 120,000-125,000
XX: Sonic: Lost World (Wii U, 3DS) - <30,000
XX. Wii Party U (Wii U) - <20,000

Enjoy.

So just to double check, Just Dance 2014 sold better on Wii U than Wii? And Sonic sold better on Wii U than 3DS?

 

[theprodigy]

Wii Sports saved the Wii before it was even released!

surprised it took that long for this post

 

[AniHawk]

Ninten U Dog. Coming to U in 2014?

they should get into making parent simulators.

nintendad: it's the father you never had.

 

[ambientmystic]

Wii Sports saved the Wii before it was even released!



No idea. The only indication we have of PS4 sales are Battlefield 4 players:

http://bf4stats.com/

Can we see similar stats for KSF or CODG?

Wow at that PS4 number, that's with the current PSN troubles that are happening at the moment. The numbers could be higher if connectivity wasn't an issue. Surprised that the series has an almost 50:50 parity between the 360 and PS3 too.

PS4 sold to a quarter of the current PS3 userbase confirmed lol

/s

 

[Refreshment.01]

I find the Wii U situation...sad, yes but FASCINATING.

Nintendo this time around outdid themselves when creating ways for the machine to fail in all accounts. It surpassed the blunderes and missteps we saw with the N64, GC and Wii and then some.

So i think this will be the ultimate stress test for Nintendo as a company. If they manage to pull of profits out of the Wii U enterprise then this company is capable of weather any storm by themselves alone. The Nintendo doomed, Go 3rd party, iOS BS could lay put to rest because that power for mireacles is right there with Lazarus raising from its grave. So far the most captivating thing to talk about this generation XD

they should get into making parent simulators.

nintendad: it's the father you never had.

That would warrant a crossover then: NintenDaddy's and Dogs. Pretty fitting actually as familes see the father as a the dog that pulls the tumbril. Here they call "Father's Day" the "Dog Day".

 

[Skiesofwonder]

Any estimates on Pikmin 3 LTD? It's sad to think we might not get another one....

 

[ASIS]

Honestly I thought a cooking game, like U cook or something, could have done something for the Wii U. I know Cooking Mama exists but so did U draw . Of course it doesn't compliment the Gamepad idea very well, but still.

That, or Wii relax... which also doesn't sit well with the gamepad >_>

 

[Yanikun]

.....I don't recall anyone declaring Vita a successful turnaround
in fact I'm pretty sure we've officially declared it dead outside of Japan

Yeah, outside of Japan. Last year the Vita was dead and soon to be dropped by retailers in Japan as well, according to the regulars in Media Create threads.

I don't know if you follow Japanese sales, so, for the history lesson: last year, the Vita had just had four of its five lowest weeks ever in the lead-up to the holiday season. Sony's first-party output was completely irrelevant, third parties weren't on board, it was the lowest-selling major platform of all time, and its sole notable holiday release was a random AKB48 game it shared with the PSP and which sold much better on the PSP - despite not even selling that much. Pretty dire situation, wasn't it?

Now try saying the Vita is dead and will soon be dropped by retailers right now in this or next week's thread.

What happened is, shockingly, Sony's top people being more competent than regular gaffers. You saw a new IP do well, you saw a new IP do great, you saw multiplatform games do better on Vita than PS3, PSP or 3DS, you saw a remodel, you saw Sony announce the Vita TV and remote play and overall just Sony refocusing its Vita game development to cater to Japanese tastes.

Yeah it's not exactly what one might call a turnaround, but it's the Vita being alive and well, having a large retail presence, being a healthy platform for certain types of games, and just having a much more promising future than last year at the same point in time.

So, like I said, there's reality and there's Gaf-reality. Stuff on Gaf is dead before it's released, it's a steak with forks in it every week and it's fodder for mockery along the lines of "giga lol at the people saying 'wait for E3,' 'wait for TGS,' 'wait for its first Christmas' etc." Cooler heads saw that there were opportunities to do more with the Vita. This year with Wii U it's like Avatar's story vs. Pocahontas'. Change the names but it's the same thing.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Constantly making these comparisons to the Vita turnaround while not understanding why its completely not applicable to the WiiU is why this counter-argument has absolutely no weight.

Third parties are what drove Vita ultimately, with Sony coaxing to the platform with incentives, bundles, and mainly in Japan's case, PS3/PSVITA cross-development using their engines. Rather than take a gamble on an unproven/failing handheld, hedge your bets with going for the 10 mil base at the same time as Vita's.

Neither of these options are available to WiiU because 3DS/WiiU cross development is not a viable thing, and also third parties are completely allergic to WiiU and not going to be coaxed back.

Essentially Nintendo has to carry the WiiU all by its lonesome (no, Indies aren't going to save it since theyre never going to pledge exclusively to it with a NEXT BIG THING) and their development structure split between 3DS and WiiU will never allow them to achieve what multiple third parties and more around the world can. Iwata also shows no signs of such heavy investments even at this late stage to even start facilitating such things even if you think they'd have a turnaround effect. There just is no solution to make the WiiU anything viable.

Hell, Vita is not even a turnaround really, just a barely surviving device in handheld utopia Japan and dead everywhere else and that still took Sony more pro-active sit downs that Nintendo are engaging in.

 

[StevieP]

Constantly making these comparisons to the Vita turnaround while not understanding why its completely not applicable to the WiiU is why this counter-argument has absolutely no weight.

Third parties are what drove Vita ultimately, with Sony coaxing to the platform with incentives, bundles, and mainly in Japan's case, PS3/PSVITA cross-development using their engines. Rather than take a gamble on an unproven/failing handheld, hedge your bets with going for the 10 mil base at the same time as Vita's.

Neither of these options are available to WiiU because 3DS/WiiU cross development is not a viable thing, and also third parties are completely allergic to WiiU and not going to be coaxed back.

Essentially Nintendo has to carry the WiiU all by its lonesome (no, Indies aren't going to save it since theyre never going to pledge exclusively to it with a NEXT BIG THING) and their development structure split between 3DS and WiiU will never allow them to achieve what multiple third parties and more around the world can. Iwata also shows no signs of such heavy investments even at this late stage to even start facilitating such things even if you think they'd have a turnaround effect. There just is no solution to make the WiiU anything viable.

Hell, Vita is not even a turnaround really, just a barely surviving device in handheld utopia Japan and dead everywhere else and that still took Sony more pro-active sit downs that Nintendo are engaging in.

Despite making valid points, your absolutism in every regard on every point made is what discredits the entirety of it. Coupled with your unabashed certainty of what's happening behind the scenes makes me wonder if your real name is Reggie yoshida

 

[Sandfox]

Yeah, outside of Japan. Last year the Vita was dead and soon to be dropped by retailers in Japan as well, according to the regulars in Media Create threads.

I don't know if you follow Japanese sales, so, for the history lesson: last year, the Vita had just had four of its five lowest weeks ever in the lead-up to the holiday season. Sony's first-party output was completely irrelevant, third parties weren't on board, it was the lowest-selling major platform of all time, and its sole notable holiday release was a random AKB48 game it shared with the PSP and which sold much better on the PSP - despite not even selling that much. Pretty dire situation, wasn't it?

Now try saying the Vita is dead and will soon be dropped by retailers right now in this or next week's thread.

What happened is, shockingly, Sony's top people being more competent than regular gaffers. You saw a new IP do well, you saw a new IP do great, you saw multiplatform games do better on Vita than PS3, PSP or 3DS, you saw a remodel, you saw Sony announce the Vita TV and remote play and overall just Sony refocusing its Vita game development to cater to Japanese tastes.

Yeah it's not exactly what one might call a turnaround, but it's the Vita being alive and well, having a large retail presence, being a healthy platform for certain types of games, and just having a much more promising future than last year at the same point in time.

So, like I said, there's reality and there's Gaf-reality. Stuff on Gaf is dead before it's released, it's a steak with forks in it every week and it's fodder for mockery along the lines of "giga lol at the people saying 'wait for E3,' 'wait for TGS,' 'wait for its first Christmas' etc." Cooler heads saw that there were opportunities to do more with the Vita. This year with Wii U it's like Avatar's story vs. Pocahontas'. Change the names but it's the same thing.

What did Sony themselves do for the Vita in the west this year besides a price drop? They released games already in development like Soul Sacrifice and Tearaway(which is unfortunately coming out the same day as a ton of Nintendo games and the Xbox One) but that's all I really remember unless you want to count the HD collection ports.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Despite making valid points, your absolutism in every regard on every point made is what discredits the entirety of it.

I just see no point in having a discussion where the "maybe a miracle" point is something worth entertaining.

Hell, as I said, right now these moves aren't being made when they take a year+ to even flutter into reality to have an effect. Nevermind that even if Iwata did start knocking on third parties doors in the dead of the night, what is he going to offer them thats going to be worth it? Sega just signed Sonic into oblivion and Yakuza didn't make a dent, western third parties are now "the 1%" (and not in the desired way!) and while Namco is no doubt happy for the Nintendo spec work, its not exactly filtering through to Ace Combat, Dark Souls and others making it to the WiiU. All this in the very short period in which WiiU can benefit from cross-gen titles (1-2 years left, projects that would be starting dev right now or months ago when things are still apocalyptic) and not when its left completely incompatible with the final and definitive "everyone on xbone/ps4/pc now" jump.

Theres just a huge big long column of "nope, doomed" to pretend that the one "Maybe a Pokemon GBC or Minecraft effect can occur!" in the pro column or the naive belief Mario Kart is going to sell 10 million consoles in a short space of months.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Show me the evidence I'm supposedly missing then, as I'm pretty confident I see everything that's happening. I've been following sales threads very closely before the Wii U entered the picture, so I'm not speaking as a guy who started following sales when a system he likes was released. I've followed the Vita's performance every step of the way and I heard people in MC threads being told exactly what you're saying right now, that they're ignoring reality and all that, and turns out the people who said that have since changed their tune, moved the goal posts, or have quietly exited the threads.

So I'm not saying the Wii U will be a success. I'm just calling out the short-sighted arguments when I see them, because I heard them all last year.

I acknowledge your point about the Vita in the MC threads. But that's more tied to fanboyism than anything: People want the Vita to fail in that thread for petty reasons. That applies to the Wii U too but at this point in time the Vita was both too expensive during the first year and had no noteworthy software. The one major unique release it did have in the form of Miku did very well and comparably to past releases. Nintendo already dropped the price everywhere and has a new Mario platformer next week which is coming out to zero hype. Despite what some might say, we usually do have a decent idea of how a game will do leading up to release. It's not going to move many units anywhere.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

There should be no talk of Nintendo buying developers. Their investors won't go for that.

Absent a realistic plan to return sales and profitability to 2009 levels, Nintendo should be aggressively buying back shares, not for the purposes of going private, necessarily, but simply to reduce the number of shares on the market. This would give them the ability to maintain and increase earnings per share and therefore dividend yields, and should preserve value of share prices, even in the face of declining earnings, and this would at least temporarily satisfy investors.

They still need that plan to stabilize sales and return to growth, but the heyday of 2009 is presumably long gone.

 

[udivision]

I just see no point in having a discussion where the "maybe a miracle" point is something worth entertaining.

The biggest "maybe a miracle" person has to be the guy behind not reforecasting that 9 mil sales goal, ha.

 

[Mpl90]

Wii Sports saved the Wii before it was even released!



No idea. The only indication we have of PS4 sales are Battlefield 4 players:

http://bf4stats.com/

Can we see similar stats for KSF or CODG?

Well, that sounds like a lot of people for Battlefield 4 on PS4, given it's out only in US, compared to the other SKUs.

Anyone who can check out the amount of people online on PS4 for COD? Given what said in the COD Wii U threads, it's viewable from the game itself.

 

[ascii42]

What did Sony themselves do for the Vita in the west this year besides a price drop? They released games already in development like Soul Sacrifice and Tearaway(which is unfortunately coming out the same day as a ton of Nintendo games and the Xbox One) but that's all I really remember unless you want to count the HD collection ports.

I guess they've been doing work in getting indies on board, other stuff like PS+ and remote play with PS4 have been in the works before this year.

 

[Mpl90]

About the PS4 COD question, directly from the Ghosts online multiplayer discussion

I played about 2 hours ago and there were approx. 30,000 players online.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

About the PS4 COD question, directly from the Ghosts online multiplayer discussion

A few things these numbers suggest for November NPD:

1) the generational transition may allow BF and a few other shooters to close the gap with CoD

2a) a rather large portion of the audiences for AAA HD games has been holding out for the PS4 and Xbone, with the buy-back programs for certain games not really changing that trend

2b) the 360 and PS3 may have a worse Christmas than expected for a generational transition, even with all of the black Friday deals. Perhaps even worse legs than expected in 2014. People are bailing out on every franchise that isn't GTA (or TLoU) at astonishing rates. AC3, BF3, and 2k13 had shown dramatic increases over previous games in their franchises as recently as last year. The Japanese pre-order numbers for GT6 and FFXiii-3 look similarly terrible, and they don't even have next gen versions.

3) the PS4 at least is going to hit the ground running, perhaps historically so. 3rd party sales appear dramatically healthier than on Wii U.

 

[kswiston]

30k concurrent players on Ghosts when the PS4 is not even out yet in Europe (and has only been out in NA for less than 2 days) seems pretty big. What's the record hardware launch month in the US?

 

[Kurosori]

There is also the fact that first party games doesn't look so good, this means that players tend to buy third party games instead of the first party.

3) the PS4 at least is going to hit the ground running, perhaps historically so. 3rd party sales appear dramatically healthier than on Wii U.

The players' demography is also different on PS3/4 than WiiU, there is a player base for this kind of game to rebuild on Nintendo systems which is already here on Sony platforms (and also that usually the WiiU version are incomplete and unoptimized, with no pre-order bonus, no DLC for the same price and no marketing & no presence in stores).
The "mature" games players are not used anymore to play on Nintendo systems (i mean on home console), it'll be a long trip to retrieve this kind of players for Nintendo (and the Third Party).

 

[shinra-bansho]

Again, my point is not to say that it will happen. My only point is that "that audience is gone now, they have smartphones and tablets" is a lazy argument. It's Gaf trying to predict as early as they can that a product is doomed that way later on they can say they were right if the product always remains a failure. No, the Wii U isn't done/dead.

To give you another example, it reminds me of the Media Create Vita discussions last year when people went from arguing "those are terrible sales, they must do something" to "by late next year, the Vita will be discontinued. It has no upcoming third-party games of any importance, and those that could be will sell better on PSP or PS3. Third parties will not want to develop games for the Vita, they will make them for mobile or 3DS and therefore the retailers will not bother keeping the Vita on the shelves.*"

Fast-forward to this year, and without the Vita even being a success, see how short-sighted the latter argument was. If the Wii U (or the Vita) fail, it will be for other, more complex reasons. The audience is gone argument is so fucking annoying because it's so simplistic, it's repeated like 10 times per page in every thread.

*Funnier, if you're in Japan, walk into Yodobashi or Bic Camera or whatnot, and look at the sheer amount of space dedicated to the Vita.

No it's "gaf" drawing upon current and past information to inform their current assessment of situations. Pretending that with a year of sales information (EDIT: forgot to finish sentence) we're all just yelling "Doom!" for no reason and are being "short-sighted" is nonsense.

A year ago people were saying the Vita was "dead" in NPD threads, and lo and behold it is still "dead." It's not necessarily being pulled from shelves (although it could still be considering it's still selling 7K or less per week across the US), but it's a largely irrelevant niche product. A year ago when the Vita had atrocious sales the assessment of it as a failure everywhere was completely accurate. And the Vita still isn't a particular "success" even in Japan.

The Wii U as it currently stands is already a failed product, there is nothing premature in that assessment. The question at hand is whether it continues to be a failure of a product or whether Nintendo can make it into less of a failure.

 

[Glass Joe]

The biggest piece of evidence is the drop off from NSMB Wii to NSMB U. 30 million plus to less than 4 million is unprecedented... unless you look at the drop off of the Brain Training, Nintendogs and now, Wii Party franchises. It will also be interesting to see if the free trial of Wii Fit U does anything at all.

Comparing year one of NSMB U to NSMB Wii LTD isn't very fair. What was the Wii game's first year sales? Also, I feel that the Wii version flourished the way it did due to the existing base. It moved some consoles, sure, but it also sold to the many already existing Wii owners. Game sales vs userbase percentages would be more fair. 2D Mario didn't simply fad itself out and fall out of relevance like Brain Training and Nintendogs.

Any estimates on Pikmin 3 LTD? It's sad to think we might not get another one....

Pikmin 3 is actually one of the U's better sellers. Though that's not necessarily saying a lot. Kind of happy that they're continuing with more DLC, including brand new stages and assets this Dec. I doubt they'll try a Pikmin 4 this gen, but it's smart that they're providing fresh content to try to keep it Evergreen.

They should do the same with Mario Kart 8. Make "classic stages" continued DLC throughout the generation.

 

[DragonSworne]

The reason Nintendo lost the casual market is because they charge 40-60 dollars for games that casuals can get for free on their phone.

Why pay 30 bucks for brain age when I can get those games for free? Why spend 60 bucks for party games when I can get them elsewhere for pennies?

Nintendo can't charge a premium anymore for casual games, and if they can't lower the prices on casual Wii U games, then they have to start making those games on mobile where they can be competitive.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Comparing year one of NSMB U to NSMB Wii LTD isn't very fair. What was the Wii game's first year sales? Also, I feel that the Wii version flourished the way it did due to the existing base. It moved some consoles, sure, but it also sold to the many already existing Wii owners. Game sales vs userbase percentages would be more fair. 2D Mario didn't simply fad itself out and fall out of relevance like Brain Training and Nintendogs.

The Wii game did 1.39M in it's launch month, which is what the Wii U system has sold LTD. NSMBU has something like a 75-80% attach rate, iirc.

The Wii installed base was obviously much larger (about 23M in November 2009), so around a 6% attach rate in its launch month.

But attach rates also aren't always the best comparison though; they will decrease as a userbase expands.

2D Mario didn't "fad itself out" necessarily, in the same way that Rockband/Guitar Hero and fitness games seem to have. But it is readily apparent that people did not primarily buy the Wii for Nintendo's traditional properties, but rather they were the beneficiary of people buying the Wii.

 

[Dysun]

About the PS4 COD question, directly from the Ghosts online multiplayer discussion

I played about 2 hours ago and there were approx. 30,000 players online.

This reminds me of last year, in a similar time frame with Wii U's release and Black Ops 2. May show that interest in these titles is astronomically higher on the PS4, as most would expect

Source: Kotaku

 

[MilkBeard]

Aquamarine here with more numbers to add to the TOP 10!!!!!!

ARE YOU READY!?!??!

1. Grand Theft Auto V (360, PS3) - 1.1 million
2. Pokémon X (3DS) - >1.7 million combined with Pokemon Y
3. Pokémon Y (3DS) - See Pokemon X
4. Battlefield 4 (360, PS3, PC) - 825,000-850,000
5. Batman: Arkham Origins (360, PS3, Wii U, PC) - <650,000 (PS3 + 360 = 98.2%, Wii U = 1.8%)
6. Assassin’s Creed IV, Black Flag (360, PS3, Wii U) - <630,000 (Wii U = 1%)
7. NBA 2K14 (360, PS3, PC)
8. Skylanders: Swap Force (Wii, 360, PS3, Wii U, 3DS) - <320,000
9. Lego Marvel Super Heroes (360, PS3, Wii U, 3DS, PC)
10. WWE 2K14 (360, PS3)
XX. Madden NFL 25 (360, PS3) - >150,000
XX. Just Dance 2014 (360, PS3, Wii U, Wii) - <150,000
XX: Beyond: Two Souls (PS3) - 120,000-125,000
XX: Sonic: Lost World (Wii U, 3DS) - <30,000
XX. Wii Party U (Wii U) - <20,000

Enjoy.

Damn. I like the WiiU, and I'm going to enjoy the exclusive games that come out for it. But I think we can all shed a tear for the beast. It's gonna be Nintendo's Saturn. Actually, I think the Saturn did pretty well in Japan for a while, so it's probably not even going to be that. We'll see what happens after Mario.

 

[metalslimer]

No it's "gaf" drawing upon current and past information to inform their current assessment of situations. Pretending that with a year of sales information

A year ago people were saying the Vita was "dead" in NPD threads, and lo and behold it is still "dead." It's not necessarily being pulled from shelves (although it could still be considering it's still selling 7K or less per week across the US), but it's a largely irrelevant niche product. A year ago when the Vita had atrocious sales the assessment of it as a failure everywhere was completely accurate. And the Vita still isn't a particular "success" even in Japan.

The Wii U as it currently stands is already a failed product, there is nothing premature in that assessment. The question at hand is whether it continues to be a failure of a product or whether Nintendo can make it into less of a failure.

Exactly. And it seems highly unlikely that Nintendo will be willing to go the extremes that it will take to save the system because just releasing their usual product is not enough with the barren lineup they have.

 

[Striek]

No idea. The only indication we have of PS4 sales are Battlefield 4 players:

http://bf4stats.com/

Can we see similar stats for KSF or CODG?

About the PS4 COD question, directly from the Ghosts online multiplayer discussion

These seem like really healthy numbers, ~55k just playing those two games multiplayer at one time. Next months NPD will be interesting but the PS4 has definitely had a cracking launch software and hardware wise I'd say.

 

[Bluth54]

Wii Sports saved the Wii before it was even released!



No idea. The only indication we have of PS4 sales are Battlefield 4 players:

http://bf4stats.com/

Can we see similar stats for KSF or CODG?

You can always check the PC version of Ghosts on the Steam Stats page.

 

[KillerMan91]

These seem like really healthy numbers, ~55k just playing those two games multiplayer at one time. Next months NPD will be interesting but the PS4 has definitely had a cracking launch software and hardware wise I'd say.

Yeah call me crazy but PS4 could have million opening month if there is just stock for it. After just one day there is at random hour 55k players playing two games (not to mention other games like KZ where we don't have stats) so launch day must have been something like 400k at least.

 

[AniHawk]

The reason Nintendo lost the casual market is because they charge 40-60 dollars for games that casuals can get for free on their phone.

Why pay 30 bucks for brain age when I can get those games for free? Why spend 60 bucks for party games when I can get them elsewhere for pennies?

Nintendo can't charge a premium anymore for casual games, and if they can't lower the prices on casual Wii U games, then they have to start making those games on mobile where they can be competitive.

that is definitely a big part of it, but another thing is that they stopped making games for that audience. it's like if activision stopped making call of duty for 3-4 years. or, well, basically what happened to the medal of honor series. they lost the fanbase because they stopped making games that appealed to them. and beyond simply making sequels to wii play, wii party, wii fit, and wii sports, they stopped making new things. the new things were what that audience were really drawn to, and the sequels kept some level of interest. funny- you'd think they would have made wii dance at some point in 2010 or even 2011, but they never did.

on top of that, there's the issue of the wii u itself being a thing that does not grab anyone's imaginations. owners like it in practice, but generally don't get the whole idea about it until after they've plunked down $300.