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[akimbo009]

That's exactly right, most of us has already been as open about that as we can be without overstepping gaf's political discussion ban. So it's obvious that he hasn't bothered to do the simplest of reading through this thread to get to know us before his triggered strawman knee-jerk ass started shitposting here.

I just wish they'd get it SOME effort... It's all so tedious.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

Who's pretending? The majority of the people who participate in this thread don't like aggressive imperialism when America does it too. I think we are capable enough to judge these world events on a spectrum of shittiness.

It’s the standard playbook: China/Russia stop being such unrelenting dicks! Bu-bu-but America did <something wrong but not nearly as bad> therefore you can’t judge us.

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

​

Russia Admits It's Running Out of Weapons in Ukraine War​

newsweek.com/russia...

Fuck Putler!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

Russia has threatened to break diplomatic relations with Bulgaria if it does not reconsider the decision to expel 70 diplomats​

censor.net/ua/new...

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

Putin says Russia and Belarus moving towards unification​

newsweek.com/putin-...

Belarus president right now:

 

[sinnergy]

Putin says Russia and Belarus moving towards unification​

newsweek.com/putin-...

Belarus president right now:

Putin has his own goals

 

[sinnergy]

Want to know why Russia uses so much ammo?



4 bombs - 2 on water, 1 dud, 1 on "target".

Let’s hope they don’t have endless garbage ammunition.. because even with all this garbage you can win.

 

[M1chl]

Another piece from VICE:

 

[Forsete]

It seems UA has access to the 155 mm BONUS arty shell.

Bofors/Nexter Bonus - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

155 BONUS is a 155 mm artillery cluster round, developed in cooperation between Bofors of Sweden and Nexter of France, designed for a long range, indirect fire top attack role against armoured vehicles. The BONUS base bleed carrier shell contains two submunitions, which descend over the battlefield on winglets and attack hardened targets with explosively formed penetrator warheads.

 

[Tams]

It seems UA has access to the 155 mm BONUS arty shell.

Bofors/Nexter Bonus - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It seems to have a parachute and move very slowly before the first detonation, so it could be a SMArt round. If so, then that means Germany's military aid is finally starting to have some real impact at last.

Bonus or SMArt though, it doesn't matter. Both do the job.

 

[Forsete]

It seems to have a parachute and move very slowly before the first detonation, so it could be a SMArt round. If so, then that means Germany's military aid is finally starting to have some real impact at last.

Bonus or SMArt though, it doesn't matter. Both do the job.

Correct.

It would be more logical if it were the SMArt round considering they now have German guns.

 

[winjer]

Putin says Russia and Belarus moving towards unification​

newsweek.com/putin-...

Belarus president right now:

Although Lukashenko is an ally with Putin, the last thing he wants is for Belarus to become a part of Russia.
It's not the first time Putin as showed intentions to absorb Belarus and Lukashenko has always managed to avoid it. Until now.

I wonder if Lukashenko will try to join NATO to protect himself and Belarus from Russia.
This would be something very weird to watch unfold.

 

[Tams]

Two more captured Britons charged by pro-Russian rebels, say reports

Andrew Hill and aid worker Dylan Healy are understood to be under investigation as mercenaries.

www.bbc.com

If any of these sentences are carried out, then I wholeheartedly support the UK directly militarily striking the 'DPR'. Russia would just have to suck it up.

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

Idioshenko knows this is a mess for him either way Ruzzia win or losses.

Belarusian army officers pen open letter to Lukashenka protesting any involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukrainian​

mobile.twitter.com/alexko...

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

Russian propagandists are preparing the population for war failures General Staff​

news.yahoo.com/russia...

 

[Buggy Loop]

Although Lukashenko is an ally with Putin, the last thing he wants is for Belarus to become a part of Russia.
It's not the first time Putin as showed intentions to absorb Belarus and Lukashenko has always managed to avoid it. Until now.

I wonder if Lukashenko will try to join NATO to protect himself and Belarus from Russia.
This would be something very weird to watch unfold.

The guy that had a boner to become a colonel of the Russian army?

 

[M1chl]

The guy that had a boner to become a colonel of the Russian army?

 

[Tams]

Idioshenko knows this is a mess for him either way Ruzzia win or losses.

Belarusian army officers pen open letter to Lukashenka protesting any involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukrainian​

mobile.twitter.com/alexko...

Well yes.

He knows he is unpopular (even more so than ever). He knows there are many in Belarus who sympathise with Ukraine. And at this rate, he knows that Russia may well not be able to ride in and save his arse and if they do would actually just get rid of him.

M1chl Oh geez. I've never actually bothered to watch that video. Lukashenko really wasn't joking. He still lives in Soviet times.

 

[Nikodemos]

M1chl Oh geez. I've never actually bothered to watch that video. Lukashenko really wasn't joking. He still lives in Soviet times.

A lot of these retarded boomers in ex-USSR countries still do.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

It is obvious Russian will drag this for years and years. They have unlimited amounts of resources.

While I don't want to minimize the size of russians stockpiles, I'd like to point out that:

We know enormous amounts of stuff either disappeared or was dismnantled and sold piecemeal due to astonishing levels of corruption.
We know they've used/lost a lot in Ukraine.
We know that due to sanctions they cannot engage in a war economy and redirect production towards replacements.

Stockpiles aren't endless.

 

[rofif]

While I don't want to minimize the size of russians stockpiles, I'd like to point out that:

We know enormous amounts of stuff either disappeared or was dismnantled and sold piecemeal due to astonishing levels of corruption.
We know they've used/lost a lot in Ukraine.
We know that due to sanctions they cannot engage in a war economy and redirect production towards replacements.

Stockpiles aren't endless.

The good thing is that incredible corruption really ruined russia plan haha.
I bet everyone was afraid and lied to putin about their available resources

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

The good thing is that incredible corruption really ruined russia plan haha.
I bet everyone was afraid and lied to putin about their available resources

The Soviet Way!

 

[BadBurger]

My God, the arguments are so bad, my point was that China spying on Russia isn't the proof the armchair political analysts thought they had about those nations. And don't get me started on atrocities, assassinations or terrorists because that's a completely different discussion that will not go well for you. Putin is a piece of shit, obviously, but watching Americans pretend their government hasn't done much worse while still shilling for fucking NATO makes my blood boil. Yemen is getting genocided right now with the help of the US government by their trusted ally ffs. Gee, I wonder why there's no embargo on Saudi Arabian oil. The fucking hypocrisy man, it's just too much to bear. Anyway, I'm out, I don't want to catch a ban for not adopting the official Westoid narrative by getting mass reported by the loyalists here.

I'll leave you with this parting gift: US won’t rule out military action if China establishes base in Solomon Islands lol

The US can't "shill" for NATO - we're a founding member. Furthermore it's merely a defense pact.

Plenty of countries were guilty in the past of the same things they condemn others for today. It's a complicated world and nations change and evolve as the years pass by. For example, should we forever point out the atrocities of the British Empire every single time the UK attempts to assist another nation against an aggressor, just because the British Empire was guilty of aggression themselves back in 1850-whatever?

I think you're merely no fan of the US, and that's fine, many aren't. Hell, I'm an American and I am and forever will be against our predilection for drone-bombing campaigns. But to place the US in the same league as Russia merely because we're helping out Ukraine against their murderous aggression is, frankly, nonsensical. In my opinion.

 

[BadBurger]

Kanye Voice:

Imma touch the sky

Get blown up lookin extra fly

Today I died

I touched the sky

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

Russian soldiers take their commander prisoner so that he would not flee – intercept​

ukrinform.net/rubric...

 

[TwinB242]

Not good news at all. The city pretty much fell in less than a week even though it took Russians a month to capture Sviverdonetsk. Russia basically has all of Luhansk now, and Putler will be gloating about it in a few days.

 

[akimbo009]

Not good news at all. The city pretty much fell in less than a week even though it took Russians a month to capture Sviverdonetsk. Russia basically has all of Luhansk now, and Putler will be gloating about it in a few days.

You act like it's pack up the bags and go home. Luhansk is UA, they will come back.

 

[Aggelos]

 

[sinnergy]

Not good news at all. The city pretty much fell in less than a week even though it took Russians a month to capture Sviverdonetsk. Russia basically has all of Luhansk now, and Putler will be gloating about it in a few days.

Like I said they have to much garbage ammunition.. Russia can win with carpet bombing .

 

[Azurro]

Not good news at all. The city pretty much fell in less than a week even though it took Russians a month to capture Sviverdonetsk. Russia basically has all of Luhansk now, and Putler will be gloating about it in a few days.

Territory ebbs back and forth during a conflict, it's the wrong thing to focus on here. Russia has spent a lot of its arsenal and lost 30,000+ soldiers grabbing Ukrainian territory, the longer they spend fighting, the more they will run out of resources, the more morale will drop, the more troops they will lose, to the point that they'll have to withdraw. Sviverodonetsk is symbolic, more than anything else, the point was to exhaust Russian resources into a phyrric victory, which it seems they have.

 

[Kenpachii]

Fucking disgusting

 

[Relique]

Territory ebbs back and forth during a conflict, it's the wrong thing to focus on here. Russia has spent a lot of its arsenal and lost 30,000+ soldiers grabbing Ukrainian territory, the longer they spend fighting, the more they will run out of resources, the more morale will drop, the more troops they will lose, to the point that they'll have to withdraw. Sviverodonetsk is symbolic, more than anything else, the point was to exhaust Russian resources into a phyrric victory, which it seems they have.

I also try to be positive despite the bad news but let's be realistic here. There is no ebb and flow right now. Russia overextended in the first few weeks and had to withdraw from many regions, but since then they've been taking city after another. There's been no major Ukrainian counteroffensive. We also know what happens to the Ukrainians under Russian occupation and especially the children, so people's reaction to more cities being taken is understandable.

I also think many people overestimate the Russian losses here. 30-40k is a lot of troops but let's not get carried away. I think people forget that the soviets served up 20% of their population during WW2 and while every other country's numbers were falling drastically towards the end of the war, Russia was sending more and more troops, reaching over 8 million in the final years. Granted the Soviets were bigger than Russia is today.. but 30k is still nothing in the grand scheme of things. What I am trying to say is that Ukraine needs real victories on the ground to turn this thing around. I am hoping things change in the next couple of months.

 

[TwinB242]

Territory ebbs back and forth during a conflict, it's the wrong thing to focus on here. Russia has spent a lot of its arsenal and lost 30,000+ soldiers grabbing Ukrainian territory, the longer they spend fighting, the more they will run out of resources, the more morale will drop, the more troops they will lose, to the point that they'll have to withdraw. Sviverodonetsk is symbolic, more than anything else, the point was to exhaust Russian resources into a phyrric victory, which it seems they have.

It doesn't matter what their losses are in the grand of scheme of the war because they still have an overwhelming advantage when it comes to manpower and equipment. It looks like they're already capturing the last settlements in Luhansk which is not good no matter how you look at it. The amount of progress Russia has made recently is devastating for Ukraine and Putin now has his first major victory

 

[Gp1]

 

[winjer]

 

[akimbo009]

I also try to be positive despite the bad news but let's be realistic here. There is no ebb and flow right now. Russia overextended in the first few weeks and had to withdraw from many regions, but since then they've been taking city after another. There's been no major Ukrainian counteroffensive. We also know what happens to the Ukrainians under Russian occupation and especially the children, so people's reaction to more cities being taken is understandable.

I also think many people overestimate the Russian losses here. 30-40k is a lot of troops but let's not get carried away. I think people forget that the soviets served up 20% of their population during WW2 and while every other country's numbers were falling drastically towards the end of the war, Russia was sending more and more troops, reaching over 8 million in the final years. Granted the Soviets were bigger than Russia is today.. but 30k is still nothing in the grand scheme of things. What I am trying to say is that Ukraine needs real victories on the ground to turn this thing around. I am hoping things change in the next couple of months.

It doesn't matter what their losses are in the grand of scheme of the war because they still have an overwhelming advantage when it comes to manpower and equipment. It looks like they're already capturing the last settlements in Luhansk which is not good no matter how you look at it. The amount of progress Russia has made recently is devastating for Ukraine and Putin now has his first major victory

30,000 is a fuck ton. It's about as many that USSR lost to Afghanistan in 10 years and forced their withdrawl. Losing nearly 1,000 tanks is not nothing, along with their 10s of thousands injured and wounded. Russia may have more but they aren't limitless.

What they've done is made what was a contested territory before the war less contested. Well, la de dah. The problem being an invading force is the natives don't go anywhere. Russia still has another 90% of Ukraine to deal with - a 90% that is fully mobilized, motivated, and increasingly better armed.

And y'all somehow aren't paying attend to Kherson where Ukraine is taking territory, and is putting Russia southern supply lines at risk.

Anyway... It's definitely a war and victory isn't assured for either force but tactical withdraws aren't routes so no reason to feel doom.. probably worth stepping away for a few days to get perspective.

 

[Chittagong]

Continuing on the topic of how profitable this war is

Russia’s average export prices were an average 60% higher than last year. By May 2022, the export revenue had increased to EUR 883 million/day – an increase of 39% from pre-war May 2021.

The price of oil today is above $120/barrel. And Russia is pulling in almost EUR 1 billion/day, or $1 billion/day, in export revenues from fossil fuels. With that, you can pay for a huge war effort aimed at Ukraine.

Sanctions On Russian Oil And Gas Didn’t Work, And Now We Know Why.

In May 2022, Russia’s export revenue from fossil fuels had increased to $0.9 billion/day, an increase of 39% from pre-war May 2021.

www.forbes.com

Consider that

1 - Russia will get same or less per barrel than any other country

2 - USA, Saudis profit as much, or more.

Thus any support pledged by US government, a few billions, is chump change compared to the windfall they are getting from the higher oil prices.

 

[Relique]

30,000 is a fuck ton. It's about as many that USSR lost to Afghanistan in 10 years and forced their withdrawl. Losing nearly 1,000 tanks is not nothing, along with their 10s of thousands injured and wounded. Russia may have more but they aren't limitless.

What they've done is made what was a contested territory before the war less contested. Well, la de dah. The problem being an invading force is the natives don't go anywhere. Russia still has another 90% of Ukraine to deal with - a 90% that is fully mobilized, motivated, and increasingly better armed.

And y'all somehow aren't paying attend to Kherson where Ukraine is taking territory, and is putting Russia southern supply lines at risk.

Anyway... It's definitely a war and victory isn't assured for either force but tactical withdraws aren't routes so no reason to feel doom.. probably worth stepping away for a few days to get perspective.

I don't care about Afghanistan losses. The two conflicts are nothing alike. We are dealing with an egotistical maniac in a country that historically had no problems throwing their own people in the meatgrinder. It'd probably be wise to set expectations in check. That being that a country of 140+ million can handle 30k losses. They aren't suddenly going to run out of men when they have no issue conscripting anyone they want.

And yes I am paying attention to Kherson. UA fighters still haven't reached city limits. Some gains in the south but nothing compared to the losses on the main eastern front. I am not going to pretend to be blind to what is actually happening. Now that Zolotarivka is occupied the orcs just claimed complete control over the entire Luhansk region. Something needs to change and quickly before Russia decides to just sit on their gains for a few years and regroup.

 

[akimbo009]

I don't care about Afghanistan losses. The two conflicts are nothing alike. We are dealing with an egotistical maniac in a country that historically had no problems throwing their own people in the meatgrinder. It'd probably be wise to set expectations in check. That being that a country of 140+ million can handle 30k losses. They aren't suddenly going to run out of men when they have no issue conscripting anyone they want.

And yes I am paying attention to Kherson. UA fighters still haven't reached city limits. Some gains in the south but nothing compared to the losses on the main eastern front. I am not going to pretend to be blind to what is actually happening. Now that Zolotarivka is occupied the orcs just claimed complete control over the entire Luhansk region. Something needs to change and quickly before Russia decides to just sit on their gains for a few years and regroup.

You just want to toss out a valid data point about the country in question because "Putin is built different"? That's not even a reasonable approach when you then cherry pick other historical data points because they fit your narrative. You can't just randomly pick what helps your argument. Russia has finite resources, and have drawn not only from 50+ old reserves and mercenaries but are now pulling 30 BTGs from their training core. There are very real evidence that it's not working.

I also think the "retrenching" isn't going to happen cause a/ no signal Russia is just going to stop and b/ Ukraine will let them.

Just cool your future predictions tits. Ain't no reason to melt down just cause they captured a city that Ukraine intentionally withdrew from after killing 10,000+ Russians. Doesn't even make sense.

 

[akimbo009]

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www.ukrinform.ua

Australia donates another $100M to "apparently on the verge of defeat and should have just given up from the start" Ukraine. That's $390M total from the Aussies.

 

[Relique]

I am not tossing out any valid data points. The losses are indeed significant. Look at the post I was directly replying to that implied that maintaining what is happening now is going to force Russia to withdraw anytime soon because they can't sustain further losses or deal with low morale. That's not how things look from where I'm sitting. I'm free reply to speculations with my own. Maybe the tide will change. I don't know. I am just not convinced yet.

 

[iamblades]

I am not tossing out any valid data points. The losses are indeed significant. Look at the post I was directly replying to that implied that maintaining what is happening now is going to force Russia to withdraw anytime soon because they can't sustain further losses or deal with low morale. That's not how things look from where I'm sitting. I'm free reply to speculations with my own. Maybe the tide will change. I don't know. I am just not convinced yet.

Anyone thinking anything if going to change 'any time soon' is overly optimistic, but on a grand strategy level I don't see any way for Russia to win in the long term. As long as Ukrainian national identity and will to fight remains, Russia can not win with the resources they have allocated to the fight(or that they CAN realistically allocate to the fight).

Territorial losses that do not impact warfighting capability are not really relevant to a fabian strategy like Ukraine is pursuing. I don't know (and neither does any other civilian in the west probably) enough about the on the ground tactical situation to know which Ukrainian territorial losses are relevant to their warfighting capability, but you can expect it to be proportional to how hard they fought to keep it. So Mariupol and Severodonetsk were likely substantial defeats in some way or other, but maybe not when compared to the costs imposed on the enemy. All of the minor towns they walk away from without a fight you can expect are strategically irrelevant.

The important metrics for a fabian strategy are the ones dealing with whether the ability to fight remains intact and operational. Sortie rate, enemy casualties, etc. Ukraine has managed to keep those metrics relatively stable from the beginning, but so far has been unable to substantially increase the pace. I suspect a lot of this is due to the logistical issues causes by the switch from soviet to NATO weapons systems, which negates some of the build out of the armed forces that has happened.

Anyone who thought because Ukraine stopped the decapitation blow at the start of the war that the war wouldn't be a bloody mess or that Ukraine would be able to push Russia out of the country in a matter of months was insanely optimistic. It will take years for Ukraine to build up the capability to push Russia out, even with continuing international support.

Now will Russia decide that it's not worth the cost eventually and withdraw without being pushed out? IMO Russia is already in that position strategically, even assuming they capture and hold all of SE ukraine and put down all the insurgency and the entire area returns to pre-war economic output(impossible), it will take centuries for Russia to recoup just the direct military costs from this war. If you add in the sanctions and international isolation and the demographic costs, I see no way this doesn't end up as a massive strategic loss, even if they hold the territory without further costs. Putin is all in on this war though, so I don't see it happening with him in charge.

 

[TwinB242]

In more positive news, Russian ammunition depots are still being blown up in big beautiful explosions. Just in time for the 4th of July

 

[Gp1]

Let’s hope they don’t have endless garbage ammunition.. because even with all this garbage you can win.

That's why UA is bombing ammo depots for the last week or so.

thread

 

[sinnergy]

That's why UA is bombing ammo depots for the last week or so.

thread

I hope so .. but it’s starting to look bleak ..

 

[DaleinCalgary]

That's why UA is bombing ammo depots for the last week or so.

thread

I'd hit that

 

[M1chl]

Green rats rise up

 

[Chittagong]

Just the daily reminder that we are in midst of the Great Oil Wars of the 2020s, and not a crazy imperialist war waged by an irrational dictator.

JPMorgan warns oil prices could surge 240% as Russia slashes output in response to Western sanctions

Russia is in a strong position and could well slash its oil output, JPMorgan said, sending prices to "stratospheric" levels.

markets.businessinsider.com

Russia is the world’s second largest oil producer after USA and incredibly, it can limit production while making more money.

EDIT: JP Morgan was absolutely bang on with their scenario for oil prices, inflation and interest rates a month before the attack - it is now playing out

 

[Ironbunny]

Just the daily reminder that we are in midst of the Great Oil Wars of the 2020s, and not a crazy imperialist war waged by an irrational dictator.

http://[URL]https://markets.busines...-russia-cap-plan-output-cuts-sanctions-2022-7

[/URL]

Russia is the world’s second largest oil producer after USA and incredibly, it can limit production while making more money.

EDIT: JP Morgan was absolutely bang on with their scenario for oil prices, inflation and interest rates a month before the attack - it is now pkaying out

I guess it depends how you define crazy. There is a rationale behind hes crazyness but this certainly aint just about oil or other minerals. Resources will ofcourse play part of hes warcrimes.

 

[TwinB242]

They also pulled a bunch of the 2000 troops that were stationed there, presumably to send to Ukraine. If Russia is pulling resources from their borders with NATO then that clearly means that they don't care about NATO expansion and don't consider them to be a threat. This is just more evidence that the invasion of Ukraine had nothing to do with security concerns stemming from NATO.