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Stock-Age: Stocks, Options and Dividends oh my!

A

ArtG

Member
I wonder how much lower we have to fall. I really want to get in, but I just have a feeling that we've not hit a bottom here. Strong earnings are being sold into, so I'm just not sure what the right entry point. Compounding this problem is a ton of different options that I have to consider:

-Lowering my cost basis on ACAS, a company I feel has been unfairly punished by the credit crunch, but will probably continue to be punished.
-INTC...cheap.
-MO...beaten down the past two days and would like to get more shares before they spin-off PMI.
-MSFT...expecting a great quarter and has been beaten to a pulp recently.
-UN...showing strength in a terrible market...undervalued against peers.

But I just don't have the cash to make significant investments into these companies at these levels, but maybe the bear market will be longer than expected and will cut deeper. We'll see...
 
E

Ether_Snake

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Fuzzery said:
O shit it ends that soon? I actually should start VSEing, I have a feeling it will help A LOT with real money. A lot of times, it takes actual trading in a stock to get used to it. The no delay thing in real trading has spoiled me though
Click to expand...

Yeah you learn a lot simply from taking part in trading, be it virtually or with real money. My investments on VSE have been in Brazilian stocks only, a market I'm basically "studying". It also helped me to find strong patterns. A few of the stocks I invested into follow the markets, so buying at the right time, before the markets go back up, could result in some major gains. For now tho, its losses, because I bought at the last DOW/NASDAQ/S&P high.

And if I had been trading virtually up to now on everything, I would have learned better about when to buy and when to sell, without losing real money:p

Joe said:
i'm itching to get into stocks and i'm looking at AMD and Sprint as my first buys. both are doing pretty bad right now but i can see them bouncing back in big ways this year. what do you guys think?
Click to expand...

Well AMD has been going up over the past two days, big time, because of INTC's earnings. Lots of speculation really. I think that all tech stocks need two things to make them really worthwhile;

1- Strong reputation and strong roots in highly industrialized nations (US, UK, Europe, Japan, Korea, etc.).
2- Strong marketing/sales-direction aimed at BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China).

Tech companies need to be global-oriented, because tech by its very nature is the same everywhere, so it simply leads to more sales (unlike for example, entertainment, energy, etc., where different countries have different needs/preferences/rules/etc.). The more global a tech company is, the safer it is IMO, and the more growths you'll see. Everyone is playing the same game when it comes to tech. No nation is going to use computers other nations are not also using. Tech is more than the bread and butter of the 21st century. So when you find companies with large market shares, low competition, and with worldwide sales, it's bound to be a good investment (of course timing is key).

So I would say that interesting tech companies are the ones that have very low competition; Adobe, Autodesk, Nvidia, etc.

BTW, off topic, anyone has an opinion on this tactic? I noticed that a lot of companies that have competition move together with their competitors. For example, ADSK and PMTC or MON and SYT or XOM and CVX. Would it be a bad idea to invest in both those companies instead of just making a bigger investment in the same one (after analysis of course)? Sure they both go down at the same time when their sectors go down, but isn't there a sort of advantage over simply buying more of the same shares?

EDIT: ArtG; I wouldn't invest in MSFT except for very short term. They have been in the 25/30$ range for years.
 
F

Fuzzery

Member
Short the weak competitor, Long the strong competitor. I mean this in terms of company strength. In a good market, weak competitor will gain less, strong will gain more. In a bad market, weak will lose more, strong will lose less.

It's a good way to hedge
 
E

Ether_Snake

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That's easier on paper tho. What I notice with the above stocks is that if you long both, you profit anyway (if they go up). Sure one might not go up more than the other, etc., but it becomes risky to say that one will drop while the other will rise when in fact both have been trading together for a while. Shorting would mean believing one of the two would fall. Yet in the cases shown above, they have been going up, and together (XOM and CVX is like toe to toe).
 
E

Ether_Snake

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But some of them had been skyrocketing recently, like STP.

I think that the problem is a lot of people see them as growth stocks, so when markets go down people sell in panic, just because they know the value is going to go down in such conditions.

There is also a lot of competition, it's difficult to pick the right stock. You have to do some really good research first.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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Hey btw look up WFR. I did a peer comparison for all of my semiconductor list, and NVDA, INTC, and WFR came out on top.

The only real plus I saw to INTC over WFR and NVDA is the current low (and probably soon-to-be-lower) price of the share, low P/E. So that's good on its own, but when it comes to growth WFR and NVDA have been doing a lot better. So I'm adding them to INTC and NVDA. It's expensive for me, but the return could be nice. Anyway, no harm in taking a closer look at more stocks:)

Their earnings are on Jan 24.
 
S

SyNapSe

Member
Do we have a VSE game name? I'd like to get into investing, but I don't know much. I figure playing a virtual game will help in learning terms and good idea's without the risk.
 
O

Ovid

Member
Here's a bit of advice...watch this stock: GLD - streetTRACKS Gold Shares. I see this stock doing well this year.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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SyNapSe said:
Do we have a VSE game name? I'd like to get into investing, but I don't know much. I figure playing a virtual game will help in learning terms and good idea's without the risk.
Click to expand...

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=193755

It's practically over tho. We should start a new game after this one ends.

EDIT: I'm keeping a closer eye on VIP (Russian Wireless communications company, mentioned them a while ago). They are acquiring GLDN and the only other big competitor would be MBT, but all three stocks have progressed together so VIP will be favored now IMO thanks to the acquisition. Anyway, MBT is too expensive for me. VIP lost close to 10$ in a short time, and this is ridiculous, so I see it is as a good opportunity.

Anyway I have too many on my waiting-to-buy list yet not enough funds:|
 
E

Ether_Snake

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* Asian Stocks Fall After Bush Plan Fails to Ease U.S. Concern, Toyota Drops

* Euro Falls to Four-Month Low Versus Yen as ECB Signals Slower Expansion

* China's Economic Growth Probably Slowed to 11.3% as Exports to U.S. Cooled

* Crude Oil Rises on Concern Mexican Port Closures Will Disrupt U.S. Supply

* Australia Dollar Falls on Report Producer Prices Rose Less Than Expected

Argh.

On the subject of bad news, what's the exit strategy here? If so many can't pay for their homes or cars, what are they gonna do? Add to this people getting layedoff I presume.
 
P

Pachael

Member
Foreclose. And property prices go down. If you happen to have lots of cash, buy something in a good place and you'll be a'right.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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I'm planning to buy a house in 09 (or a condo, but I don't like condo nor believe in their value). If I don't tank before then:p

BTW after much thought, I'm sidelining INTC and going with NVDA instead. I have more faith in the company, and management looks better when looking at management effectiveness (which is clearly reflected in how well the company has been doing over years over INTC). I think it can still fall a bit lower, should be a good buy in a month at most. We'll see!
 
R

rage1973

Member
Today is showing a big down market in both Asia and Europe. It's good thing for US investors that today is closed due to MLK day or we would have another down day. I predict markets to be down on Tuesday and start to bounce back Wednesday.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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I don't think they will bounce on Wednesday. This drop will continue for a while, no good news in sight. It will be a long painfull process.

BTW UBI dropped over 11% today, probably on US recession fears.
 
J

John Dunbar

correct about everything
Jesus fucking Christ, my investments have dropped €60,000 from last year. :lol

2hhqfep.gif
 
A

ArtG

Member
Ether_Snake said:
EDIT: ArtG; I wouldn't invest in MSFT except for very short term. They have been in the 25/30$ range for years.
Click to expand...

I feel they're in a growth stage (at least, growth for a company of their size)
I like the stability they provide.
 
S

Synth_floyd

Banned
So many criminals run the global financial system. Starting with the Federal reserve which creates bubble after bubble and then all the bankers and lenders who take advantage of these bubbles until it gets down to the little guy who gets screwed due to other people's greed. And then the IRS is always there to take its cut to fund criminal wars and social spending. Britain is apparently going to use public funds to prop up the failed bank Northern Rock. What ever happened to laissez-faire capitalism?
 
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Ether_Snake

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John Dunbar; ouch:|

Well, tomorrow won't be fun, that's for sure, and my father keeps telling me that I'll lose all my money, that the markets are going to crash and everyone will lose their jobs and no one will be able to buy 200$ video games anymore so I'll lose my job, which he says I have thanks to luck. Great moral support!

I'll have to spend a lot more time on making a more solid art portfolio, just in case I DO lose my job eventually, you never know. But I need to get my passport soon, because if I lose my job here it means there won't be any place to work except elsewhere in Canada or overseas. I got a lousy education, so my portfolio is really all I have. I don't want to move away from here because it means I will practically have no life outside of work and I lived here all my life. But if I have to I guess I will.

Meanwhile, I have to pay for all my expenses by myself (my parents are too poor to even own a car), the rent will go up, my electricity bill is high, etc. Really sucks, and it's somewhat unfair when you look at all the people that are making money out of kissing asses and passing under the skill-check radar (when there's one at all).

At least I have 0$ of debt. I just hope I'll make it through fine!
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
Well, crap on a stick. I'm almost back down to even money at an average buy of $52.69. I was going to hold out 'til the quarter report and didn't want to panic sell, but I dunno at this point... Maybe it's a buying opp.

7974 (NTDOY) Change: -2,400 (-$2.83) -4.54%, Currently: 50,500 ($59.47)
 
R

rage1973

Member
Ether_Snake said:
I don't think they will bounce on Wednesday. This drop will continue for a while, no good news in sight. It will be a long painfull process.

BTW UBI dropped over 11% today, probably on US recession fears.
Click to expand...
You obviously haven't gone though down times. Things may look bleak and it seems like you are losing money hand over fist, but trust me things will turn around. I looked at some numbers like margin ratio and it seems like there are lot of money that are on the sideline looking for somewhere to go. Once they see some bargains you will see a change in tide. It may just mean short term momentum change but there will be a rebound coming soon.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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rage1973 said:
You obviously haven't gone though down times. Things may look bleak and it seems like you are losing money hand over fist, but trust me things will turn around. I looked at some numbers like margin ratio and it seems like there are lot of money that are on the sideline looking for somewhere to go. Once they see some bargains you will see a change in tide. It may just mean short term momentum change but there will be a rebound coming soon.
Click to expand...

Yeah but you really think the markets are going to recover soon? Sure it might go back up, but it will be temporary, people are starting to get hit, then its reduced sales/etc., job losses, and so on. I'd say recovery could start in late spring maybe. Maybe that's just me.
 
K

koam

Member
Tomorrow is going to be hell. The US markets were closed today but TSX dropped over 600 points. It's going to be bad, real bad.
 
F

fobtastic

Member
koam said:
Tomorrow is going to be hell. The US markets were closed today but TSX dropped over 600 points. It's going to be bad, real bad.
Click to expand...

No kidding. Unless you're looking to buy, keep your eyes closed.
 
J

Joe

Member
this might be a stupid question but in the next few days what stocks should i be looking to buy for nice short term (6 months max) gains?

i've got about $1k i'm willing to "play" with.
 
R

rage1973

Member
Joe said:
this might be a stupid question but in the next few days what stocks should i be looking to buy for nice short term (6 months max) gains?

i've got about $1k i'm willing to "play" with.
Click to expand...
Just put it into a CD. As an inexperienced investor you will get killed trying to invest short term.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
I'm going to shuttle a chunk of my stock-based mutual funds into long-term bonds. Holy crap the market is going to implode tomorrow. :lol
 
A

ArtG

Member
rage1973 said:
Just put it into a CD. As an inexperienced investor you will get killed trying to invest short term.
Click to expand...

Totally agree here. If you only want to invest for six months, it's clear you don't want to lose money and would take it out after the six months anyways. So just get a six-month CD from your bank and take the gains.

Now is not the time to have a short-term outlook on stocks.
 
C

Copycat_Wannabe

Member
I've sold all my stocks i invested in the Swedish stock market.(lost alot of money)

I still have stocks in Activision( +17,9%) and Sony(+2,44%)
What should i do? is it too risky to keep them?
 
J

Joe

Member
well that makes sense about short term gains, thanks.

what markets and stocks should i be looking for long term investments? i already have a lot of cash stored in a 5% savings account, i would like to get some of that money into stocks though. i am definitely not opposed to long term investments i was just hoping to make cash quick :D
 
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Ether_Snake

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I'm keeping my ATVI shares (bought them at 17).

BP is down big time, this is interesting, a big oil now accessible:D
 
T

thegreyfox

Member
This is crazy! Almost sold out of all my APPL after the opening bell.

looks like the market might end up green. hope that was the bottom...
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Holy crap I didn't realize the Fed cut interest rates 3/4 of a point. The day the markets opened after 9/11 they only cut by 1/2. It's a kind of reverse psychology out there - the markets are taking that as another sign of deep recession ahead, and down they go even further. It's the kind of market where good news is bad news (see also: Intel).
 
S

SyNapSe

Member
I'm trying to buy my first stocks on the VSE game and I did limit orders at a price. The stocks show like they are below my limits yet it's not purchasing. Did I do something wrong?
 
T

Tarazet

Member
SyNapSe said:
I'm trying to buy my first stocks on the VSE game and I did limit orders at a price. The stocks show like they are below my limits yet it's not purchasing. Did I do something wrong?
Click to expand...

There's a 20 minute delay. Has it been more than that? FWIW, they don't give a crap and won't go back and do the transaction even if it should have happened..
 
S

SyNapSe

Member
sonarrat said:
There's a 20 minute delay. Has it been more than that? FWIW, they don't give a crap and won't go back and do the transaction even if it should have happened..
Click to expand...

I didn't realize on the delay. They went through and all my stocks have gone up so far since that point.
 
K

kathode

Member
Ether_Snake said:
AAPL earnings this evening btw.
Click to expand...
Apple will knock it out of the park, of course. Just worried about guidance. That's bitten me every time I've tried to play the earnings game, and it's something to worry about as long as the state of the economy sucks.

NTDOY earnings on Thursday, though I'm not sure if it's Thursday in the US (i.e. Japan Time!)
 
K

kathode

Member
Yup, just like I thought, it looks like the AAPL outlook is missing the estimates, and shares are tanking. I'm about ready to cash out my entire portfolio and stuff it inside my mattress at this point :(
 
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