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[_Frank_]

Things haven't been very interesting until the last 40 years.

Here's a better one with more recent prices...

To me this just screams gold bubble.

Gold is a value that people buy when the stock market falls.....Now is a very good entry point.

 

[Javaman]

Gold is a value that people buy when the stock market falls.....Now is a very good entry point.

What happens when the market recovers? I guess that's where we differ. I think things are going to recover soon and you likely don't. Either way though how is buying at an all time peak a good entry point?

 

[_Frank_]

buying in an up trend is way more logic then buying in an down trend. And that's what some people here are doing. Anyways, im shot term. (hopefully)

 

[speculawyer]

Yeah, that is freaky . . . $4 billion in market cap just vanished into thin air. Wow.

A bank failure . . . wow.

Holy crap . . . Another $4 Billion of market cap just vanished.

Investment bank failure. This is not your ordinary recession.

 

[Ether_Snake]

buying in an up trend is way more logic then buying in an down trend. And that's what some people here are doing. Anyways, im shot term. (hopefully)

Looking at that gold curve, I would have been happy if I had bought gold on a downtrend. I'd be rich

 

[teh_pwn]

I'm taking the opposite stance with foreign investment, especially in China. I'm starting to get the feeling that a "perfect storm" is brewing that will really mess up investments in that area. Apart from the obvious of people reducing their spending on goods overall due to fears of a recession and not having as much equity in their houses to borrow on, there's also the increasing cost of oil due to speculation and the potential for inflation in the USA which will begin to bring manufacturing back to the US.

On the other side I'm skeptical that inflation is going to increase much in the USA. Look at how much money was available when credit was much easier to obtain and house prices were shooting up. That money is no longer available so perhaps the money that the fed is pumping into the economy is going to partially balance things out instead of adding strictly to inflation.

No doubt China and other nations will be impacted by our recession. Foreign indexes on average are down ~11% this year so far compared to about 15% domestically. I just think overall America is worse off on average for a longer term investment. We'll bounce back and eventually be healthy.

China as a whole has been a growth trap for investors. Only the emerging markets fund I'm looking at has China in it, and it's only 10%.

I just got Vanguard European (VEURX) for my 2007 IRA contribution.

Shortly I'll get Vanguard Diversified Emerging Markets (VEIEX).

Then I'm not sure what I'll get. If the American economy is still being artificially held up by the Federal Reserve, I'll go with Vanguard Pacific (VPACX). I think Pacific is due to take off in the coming years. The performance has been bad since inception due to the real-estate bubble that Japan had back in the late 80s. If I believe we've been corrected, I may go with a mid-cap growth or small-cap value index domestically.

 

[speculawyer]

What happens when the market recovers? I guess that's where we differ. I think things are going to recover soon and you likely don't. Either way though how is buying at an all time peak a good entry point?

I agree that this might not be a good entry point . . . but at the same time, I wouldn't look for a quick recovery.

 

[teh_pwn]

wtf? so the company lost like 90% of its value in 2 days? :lol holy crap.

Yeah, 90% loss sucks on Nortel proportions. Just think how much it takes to get that back. 1,000%

 

[teh_pwn]

What losses? I've sold nothing at a loss so far, and made $1,300 on TTWO (bought 140 at 15, sold at 25.75), and have $1,000 on ATVI (bought 140 at 17).

Anything I have is long term. The only thing that is hurting me is IMMR, which is a mistake I made that I wouldn't do anymore.

EDIT: And for sure, the more interest rates are cut, the less impact it has, except outright negative impacts. Next rates cuts will send the markets lower. It's like being prescribed a drug; its proof you're sick. People will fricking bailout.

I misinterpreted one of your old posts. You actually said that you wouldn't put any more money into the market. Somehow I read it as you were saying "fuck the stock market, I'm buying a condo" and thought you meant you were selling.

 

[teh_pwn]

To me this just screams gold bubble.

It's possible there's some bubble action going on. I haven't paid enough attention. But part of it is most certainly it's relative value to the dollar.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=dmax

Gold is supposed to roughly hold value over long periods. People rushing to buy gold as a recession shelter could temporarily change it's value (bubble). But gold is also international, so it may just be because gold is holding value, and the dollar is weakening, that it appears that gold is suddenly skyrocketing in value.

 

[Ether_Snake]

I misinterpreted one of your old posts. You actually said that you wouldn't put any more money into the market. Somehow I read it as you were saying "fuck the stock market, I'm buying a condo" and thought you meant you were selling.

Nah condo is too expensive for me alone:lol Altho I'd like to have one.

But I wouldn't have sold off my stocks anyway, I don't want to do that. I'm a patient man, I just talk a lot

EDIT: Nikkei down 500 points.

 

[Deku Tree]

what's the best way to buy gold, esp. if you don't want to take delivery? is there a SPDR or something like that for it?

 

[LJ11]

At one point in time JPMorgan held the largest notional value in derivatives, yet Jamie Dimon and Co. managed to come out of this whole mess relatively clean. Dimon's former employer on the other hand was absolutely rocked. Citi backed the wrong horse.

Bear's midtown building is worth a billion easy. Their brokerage business can really open doors for JPMorgan if relationships are/can be repaired. This may be the steal of the century, or it may amount to nothing, but it's worth the risk if you ask me.

Tough times for Bear employees, and as a former employee myself, I feel for some of them.

Recently, I've been worrying about a Liquidity Trap scenario, similar talk also surfaced earlier this decade. Crossing my fingers, but I'm sure this sort of talk will start picking up speed. Crazy times ahead.

 

[teiresias]

So what the hell happened to all of that tax payer money bail-out cash the government gave over to Bears not more than three(?) days ago? Is that just up in smoke now? I'm not following this whole crazy scenario too well, obviously.

 

[Ether_Snake]

So what the hell happened to all of that tax payer money bail-out cash the government gave over to Bears not more than three(?) days ago? Is that just up in smoke now? I'm not following this whole crazy scenario too well, obviously.

I'm pretty sure it's in JP's pockets now.

Ron Paul, he was so crazy amirite?

 

[LJ11]

So what the hell happened to all of that tax payer money bail-out cash the government gave over to Bears not more than three(?) days ago? Is that just up in smoke now? I'm not following this whole crazy scenario too well, obviously.

That was a line of credit extended to all banks, not just Bear Stearns. It's not up in smoke, still there for all to use.

Fed opened another lending facility to Primary Dealers, they can borrow with investment grade collateral for up to 6 months (maybe more if shit gets worse).

 

[Ether_Snake]

That was a line of credit extended to all banks, not just Bear Stearns. It's not up in smoke, still there for all to use.

Fed opened another lending facility to Primary Dealers, they can borrow with investment grade collateral for up to 6 months (maybe more if shit gets worse).

Err I'm pretty sure the feds did take a couple millions for Bear Stearns specifically this Friday.

 

[Anthropic]

There's an answer in the JPMorgan presentation from this evening: http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...f16-4238-a908-e0a07a904682/JPM_Bear FINAL.pdf

On page 4 of 9:

Special Fed lending facility in place; non-recourse facility to manage up
to $30B +/- of illiquid assets, largely mortgage-related

 

[Ether_Snake]

Oh right, billions.

And mortgage.

:lol

 

[LJ11]

Err I'm pretty sure the feds did take a couple millions for Bear Stearns specifically this Friday.

Fed gave Bear a line of credit through JPMorgan, they used JPMorgan to secure the credit. Bear couldn't secure the credit themselves, because they had nothing to secure it with. Again, all banks have access to the credit, it's just that Bear had no ways to secure it. Should have cleared that up in my OP, apologize for the confusion.

There's an answer in the JPMorgan presentation from this evening: http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...f16-4238-a908-e0a07a904682/JPM_Bear FINAL.pdf

On page 4 of 9:

Well JPM agreed to buy in if the Fed would guarantee a certain amount, and they did. The Fed will now control about $30B in Bear's portfolio. This deal was struck on Sunday, not on Friday. Then again who knows, we weren't in the room.

JPMorgan said that in addition to the loans extended to Bear on Friday, the Fed had agreed to fund up to $30bn of Bear’s less liquid assets – a move that will alleviate the need for a fire-sale of mortgage-backed securities.

 

[_Frank_]

Looking at that gold curve, I would have been happy if I had bought gold on a downtrend. I'd be rich

not really. Gold price has just double in about 20 years....

 

[teh_pwn]

I'm pretty sure it's in JP's pockets now.

Ron Paul, he was so crazy amirite?

Yeah, if this escalates, it's exactly what Paul has been ranting about for the last 30 years.

Edit: He's still owning people in congress, while they continue to babble about who to blame.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PoxlzPGIPt4

A shame Paul is getting so old. He's not as clear and concise as he used to be.

 

[teh_pwn]

not really. Gold price has just double in about 20 years....

Don't confuse the reference points. More often than not, Gold hasn't changed in price. Just the value of the currency that you're comparing gold has changed.

 

[MobiusPigeon]

back to this bear stearns thing. They were at 30 some last trade and are being allowed to be bought at TWO. does this mean that behind the scenes the real estate market IS indeed about to get MUCH worse and $2 was around the actual value when factoring all the losses that JP will incur?

 

[mckmas8808]

Oh oh..futures dropping like a rock....Dow futures now at -165, Gold has jumped to $1,019.50. The dollar is TANKING...

Nice job Fed....

wtf? :lol

Why does the Fed keep cutting? Should they listen to Ron Paul and other economist that say we need to just rid it out and stop cutting fed rates?

 

[MobiusPigeon]

they're purposely sinking the value of the dollar to get ready for the amero. tsc tsc. buy silver now.

 

[mckmas8808]

EVERYWHERE in Europe the stocks are down. Like darn near EVERYWHERE!!!

 

[mckmas8808]

back to this bear stearns thing. They were at 30 some last trade and are being allowed to be bought at TWO. does this mean that behind the scenes the real estate market IS indeed about to get MUCH worse and $2 was around the actual value when factoring all the losses that JP will incur?

WOW! Good question.

 

[Sqrt_minus_one]

they're purposely sinking the value of the dollar to get ready for the amero. tsc tsc. buy silver now.

You are the second person in a week who has said this I overheard "some guy" on my train to work saying the exact same thing he said all his colleagues in the banking industry within which he had worked for over 20 years were flooding his inbox with this info. I dismissed him as a crazy at the time he said USA, Canada and Mexico all under one currency called the Amero. I had never heard of such a plan up unitl then.

 

[WingM@n]

The markets are going to get a whole lot worse the next few months, just watch.

 

[thefro]

Yeah, it's definitely time to BAIL OUT if you're in anything too risky. It's going to be a slaughter today, especially with Greenspan saying this could be the worst financial crisis since WWII. That alone is probably good for a 300 point drop today.

 

[_Frank_]

Don't confuse the reference points. More often than not, Gold hasn't changed in price. Just the value of the currency that you're comparing gold has changed.

sure. But thats just a way situate things.

 

[Ether_Snake]

CM down 5%.

I ain't touching banks, at least not any time soon.

 

[MobiusPigeon]

so how do you buy silver and gold? is it possible to buy it just as if i were buying a stock?

 

[RumblingRosco]

-

 

[MobiusPigeon]

my losses werent as bad as i thought they were gonna be either.

 

[thegreyfox]

so how do you buy silver and gold? is it possible to buy it just as if i were buying a stock?

GLD would be the best way to play gold. Remember when gold pops it pops hard. GLD is already up 20% year to date.


LOL this market.

 

[Ether_Snake]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080317/fed_credit_crisis.html

"The central bank has agreed to fund up to $30 billion of Bear Stearns' less liquid assets, according to JPMorgan."

Yuck

 

[MobiusPigeon]

GLD would be the best way to play gold. Remember when gold pops it pops hard. GLD is already up 20% year to date.


LOL this market.

looking more at silver. how do i do that? oh and i just cashed out 60% of my stuff for the visa ipo. i think its tomorrow. 37-42 a share. Would the best bet to actually get in on it be to CALL in an order like....NOW?

 

[thegreyfox]

SLV for silver. Up 38% Year to Date. I really don't trust Metals, Ag, and oil they all have gone up way up in short amount of time.

 

[Ether_Snake]

CRDN up almost 2%. People expect more war?:lol
EDIT: Over 2%. Been going up quick.

 

[_Frank_]

looking more at silver. how do i do that? oh and i just cashed out 60% of my stuff for the visa ipo. i think its tomorrow. 37-42 a share. Would the best bet to actually get in on it be to CALL in an order like....NOW?

i would not play silver. Mines are plunging right now, except for gold. GLD is a stock that moves in the sames proportions of the gold price, personnally i prefer investing in gold companys directly. But you have to be more short term to do that.

 

[_Frank_]

by the way, i don't like playing stocks that are going down (except for shorting) but i'm tempt by PANL (oled screens manufacturer). I think this technology will be the next big thing pretty soon, but i'll wait a bit more to enter, when it stabilizes.

 

[Ether_Snake]

by the way, i don't like playing stocks that are going down (except for shorting) but i'm tempt by PANL (oled screens manufacturer). I think this technology will be the next big thing pretty soon, but i'll wait a bit more to enter, when it stabilizes.

I remember Koam saying that months ago. In theory, it's true. But I've been watching it for some time along with CREE and both go up and down a lot. I made the mistake of buying IMMR because I believe in the tech's future, I should have waited. No small cap has a monopoly on good tech.

http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/ratios.asp?symbol=PANL.O

Not too hot, obviously risky. Your call

 

[_Frank_]

yeah thats why ill wait things stabilizes but ill keep a good eye on it.

 

[Synth_floyd]

Kramer is retarded. I hope no one listens to him. This is from an online column of his last week:

Dear Jim: Should I be worried about Bear Stearns in terms of liquidity and get my money out of there? --Peter

Cramer says: “No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble. If anything, they’re more likely to be taken over. Don’t move your money from Bear.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23575614

He's either clueless or a manipulative liar like Bush, Bernanke, the Bear Sterns CEO, etc.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Kramer is retarded. I hope no one listens to him. This is from an online column of his last week:



http://www.cnbc.com/id/23575614

He's either clueless or a manipulative liar like Bush, Bernanke, the Bear Sterns CEO, etc.

That.

 

[_Frank_]

just went short on adbe at 31.10. lol

 

[mckmas8808]

just went short on adbe at 31.10. lol

What does this mean? I do you go short?

 

[gkryhewy]

Kramer is retarded. I hope no one listens to him. This is from an online column of his last week:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/23575614

He's either clueless or a manipulative liar like Bush, Bernanke, the Bear Sterns CEO, etc.

Uh... seems like he was right, actually. They were taken over, and people with Bear Sterns accounts (as opposed to Bear Sterns stock) are entirely fine, and access to their money is not threatened.

Am I missing something?