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[kathode]

74-25 in favor. Good to go from the Senate at least.

 

[RumblingRosco]

I think it will pass, this new bill is GOOD.

Peple just think it's still as it was when Paulson made his original proposal.

If it doesn't pass, we can expect shit to get very crazy very quickly on all stock exchanges.

 

[Tamanon]

Imagine what'll happen to the markets if THIS bill doesn't pass after the Senate overwhelmingly passed it.:lol

 

[toxicgonzo]

As a bonus, the SEC extended the short-sell ban

 

[Ether_Snake]

I'm losing money on HON and BHI, never lost so much so quickly after I bought something. So I really want things to settle down. But it's never possible to tell if we're close to a bottom. We could go to 9000, even with the bailout IMO.

 

[Tarazet]

As a bonus, the SEC extended the short-sell ban

Oh shit. Do I need to get rid of my HBC and BCS puts right now?

Edit: it expires October 17, one day before the exercise date, and cannot be extended beyond that date. Cool.

 

[gkryhewy]

NTDOY down another 3% on the nikkei overnight - should open at ~47.00. This is a screaming buy, as long as the "rescue plan" passes. Sales numbers indicate that nintendo haven't been been affected by the economic slowdown - should hit earnings out of the park again in October.

 

[RSTEIN]

Oh shit. Do I need to get rid of my HBC and BCS puts right now?

Edit: it expires October 17, one day before the exercise date, and cannot be extended beyond that date. Cool.

It doesn't matter. The short selling ban doesnt have anything to do with options.

 

[kathode]

NTDOY down another 3% on the nikkei overnight - should open at ~47.00. This is a screaming buy, as long as the "rescue plan" passes. Sales numbers indicate that nintendo haven't been been affected by the economic slowdown - should hit earnings out of the park again in October.

Just a warning - my experience with Nintendo earnings is universally negative. They make more money than God, but without fail they release an overly-cautious outlook that sends the stock down. If this bailout package goes through, the value of the dollar is going to suffer and that will weigh on Nintendo since a lot of their sales are overseas. They've noted the same thing before in their earnings reports. I agree that the price is very attractive at the moment though.

Looks like things are shaping up to be another shitty day. No one has confidence in anything right now.

 

[gkryhewy]

Just a warning - my experience with Nintendo earnings is universally negative. They make more money than God, but without fail they release an overly-cautious outlook that sends the stock down.

Actually I don't agree - I believe this was the case with the most recent earnings report, but during their two big runups (through December 2007 and again through July 2008), they consistently outperformed estimates and guided higher than consensus.

If this bailout package goes through, the value of the dollar is going to suffer and that will weigh on Nintendo since a lot of their sales are overseas.

I don't agree with this either - when the bailout package looked like a done deal last Monday, the Dollar soared against all currencies. 700 billion dollars is pennies compared to the impact of economic health on the value of the dollar.

But I agree that the period before/after earnings is likely to be volatile, and I will consider selling pre-earnings rather than post.

 

[RSTEIN]

Actually I don't agree - I believe this was the case with the most recent earnings report, but during their two big runups (through December 2007 and again through July 2008), they consistently outperformed estimates and guided higher than consensus.

It consistently beat estimates because nobody foresaw the success of the Wii. The stock has run from $16 to $60. A lot of good news is baked into the price. If they talk of any sort of headwinds ahead it could punish the stock severely.

Look at RIMM. They missed by a penny.

 

[Tarazet]

It doesn't matter. The short selling ban doesnt have anything to do with options.

In theory it could, if the expiration date fell on a day that the SEC had banned short sales - because it prevents you from exercising puts. But since they can't extend it to the 18th, it's fine.

 

[RSTEIN]

In theory it could, if the expiration date fell on a day that the SEC had banned short sales - because it prevents you from exercising puts. But since they can't extend it to the 18th, it's fine.

How would banning short sales prevent you from exercising your puts?

 

[Tarazet]

How would banning short sales prevent you from exercising your puts?

Because a put, by definition, buys you the ability to short-sell 100 of the underlying stock.

 

[RSTEIN]

Because a put, by definition, buys you the ability to short-sell 100 of the underlying stock.

I know what a put is . A put does not give you the ability to "short sell." It gives you the right, but not obligation, to sell a stock at a predetermined date at a predetermined price. There's a big difference. In fact, because of the short sell ban, you could see put premiums increase.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Bah, I'm not even gonna look. Gold is down, everything is down, bah.

 

[gkryhewy]

It consistently beat estimates because nobody foresaw the success of the Wii. The stock has run from $16 to $60. A lot of good news is baked into the price. If they talk of any sort of headwinds ahead it could punish the stock severely.

Look at RIMM. They missed by a penny.

I generally agree - the stock was hit hard after last earnings because of this. However, you're a little off - wii's success was well-established last winter, and certainly by the run back up to 70 in spring/summer. BTW, the run was $16 to $~80 - I sold at 78.50 last November.

RIMM was already vulnerable because of iPhone and Android expectations.

EDIT: NTDOY seems to be tracking with many export-heavy japanese firms (SNE, etc) since mid-summer.

EDIT2: Holy fuck, am I glad I got out of POT. Now below 100!

 

[Tarazet]

I know what a put is . A put does not give you the ability to "short sell." It gives you the right, but not obligation, to sell a stock at a predetermined date at a predetermined price. There's a big difference. In fact, because of the short sell ban, you could see put premiums increase.

It is short selling if you don't own the stock. The only reason why it isn't covered by the ban is because the exercise date is outside the dates of the ban.

 

[RSTEIN]

It is short selling if you don't own the stock. The only reason why it isn't covered by the ban is because the exercise date is outside the dates of the ban.

Yes, that's true. When you don't have the stock in your inventory then you can end up with a short position (which can be tricky with the ban on short sales). However, you can simply buy the stock and sell it upon expiry. That's the key difference. The main point is that a put option does not force you into a short position. It gives you the right to sell at a certain date at a certain price, that's all. The rest is up to you. Anyways, only a small % of options are actually exercised.

 

[ShOcKwAvE]

From Colbert Report last night:

On Monday when the markets tanked, 499 of the S&P 500 stocks went down. ONE went up. That stock:

Campbell's Soup

 

[Tarazet]

So wasn't the Senate passing the bill supposed to help the market? What happened? :lol Funny thing is that I dreamed the market would be down while I was half-asleep between about 5 am and 6:30 when the market opened.

It sucks that my puts and calls are both negative. Market isn't volatile enough.

 

[toxicgonzo]

So wasn't the Senate passing the bill supposed to help the market? What happened? :lol

I thought it would, but according to finance.yahoo.com, it fell because of "a seven-year high in jobless claims". Also, it fell on "fear that the government's financial rescue plan might not be enough to ward off a recession."

I do regret selling off shares of Wachovia Bank (WB) yesterday. I bought in at $3.55 tuesday and today it jumped to a high of $4.50

 

[Ether_Snake]

I dreamed I was buying a lot of gold :lol

But wtf everything is down by so much, ATVI down 7%, ABX.TO down 9%.


...

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!

 

[Tarazet]

Here's the frustrating thing. BCS (Barclays) is down over 5%.. and yet my put option is down 33%. WTF. Lesson learned - next time, buy options on actively traded stocks so I can at least find a buyer at a fair price if I need one.

 

[kathode]

Actually I don't agree - I believe this was the case with the most recent earnings report, but during their two big runups (through December 2007 and again through July 2008), they consistently outperformed estimates and guided higher than consensus

Were you an owner? You can look back through this thread and see my reactions to price action after multiple earnings reports. Bad bad and then some more bad. There might have been one good one in there, but quite a few bad ones. I can't complain though. I bought in around 38 and sold around the high 60's if I remember right.

Just saying, do what you want, but I'm not convinced that they're a sure bet. I also think that for the holiday season, while they'll still sell gangbusters, that expectations might be ridiculously high, and I don't think they have a lot going on for them game-wise at the moment.

 

[RSTEIN]

Here's the frustrating thing. BCS (Barclays) is down over 5%.. and yet my put option is down 33%. WTF. Lesson learned - next time, buy options on actively traded stocks so I can at least find a buyer at a fair price if I need one.

You're surprised your put option is down 33%? It has nothing to do with it being thinly traded! This is the options game... delta, theta, gamma!

 

[gkryhewy]

Were you an owner? You can look back through this thread and see my reactions to price action after multiple earnings reports. Bad bad and then some more bad. There might have been one good one in there, but quite a few bad ones. I can't complain though. I bought in around 38 and sold around the high 60's if I remember right.

Just saying, do what you want, but I'm not convinced that they're a sure bet. I also think that for the holiday season, while they'll still sell gangbusters, that expectations might be ridiculously high, and I don't think they have a lot going on for them game-wise at the moment.

Yes; I was an owner last year - bought in June/July IIRC and sold in November. I simply don't share your recollection of earnings results - they always jumped on earnings because their prior quarter's guidance guidance was always conservative (and still is). The only exception was the most recent earnings, when they cut forecasts (and then revised them higher again at the beginning of september).

Still I agree that it's not a sure-thing at this point - they haven't fallen quite as far from their peak as, say, apple has, which I view as a peer stock.

 

[Tarazet]

You're surprised your put option is down 33%? It has nothing to do with it being thinly traded! This is the options game... delta, theta, gamma!

Yeah, I know. Time value and all that. I'm just biding my time until the bailout deal is finalized or killed for good, anyway. That's where I'll make my money.

 

[Ether_Snake]

ABX.TO down 12%, STP down 16%.

China's Suntech solar plans to triple US sales

Ho-fucking-ray. Seriously. Makes perfect sense!

 

[Tarazet]

Well, after all that I still wound up $80 ahead on the day compared with yesterday, though my position as a whole is still a loser. I eagerly await tomorrow.

 

[Ether_Snake]

CGT down 10%.

This is my worst day ever.

But whatever, bring it!

 

[RumblingRosco]

Bad day for the entire market, translates into a bad day for me! I am curious as to where NTDOY will go after all these big announcements over the past 24 hours.

 

[mollipen]

Bad day for the entire market, translates into a bad day for me! I am curious as to where NTDOY will go after all these big announcements over the past 24 hours.

I took a chance and bought a little bit of NTDOY. My guess is that now, because I did that, Nintendo will tank and go out of business.

 

[gkryhewy]

Bad day for the entire market, translates into a bad day for me! I am curious as to where NTDOY will go after all these big announcements over the past 24 hours.

As Ether_Snake noted re: STP, this market appears to be news-proof. The only news that matters is economic news. Re: NTDOY, just hope for the bailout to pass tomorrow, and hope for optimistic earnings at the end of the month (their last forecast adjustment was very optimistic).

I believe it's oversold (obviously I do, as I own it at a small loss right now), but it could still take awhile to regain its footing. I will buy more if it falls further to the low 40s.

Right now it is mostly tracking both the Dollar-Yen and other Japanese exporters like SNE since July/August.

 

[Fatalah]

Well, Apple finally hit $100. Perfect time to buy.

 

[gkryhewy]

Bah, nintendo down another 9% on the nikkei tonight! Should open at ~43 tomorrow. I wish I'd waited :lol . This is all about expectations of US slowdown and its impact on exporters. Personally I don't expect much impact on nintendo, but I can certainly understand the concern.

 

[RumblingRosco]

Bah, nintendo down another 9% on the nikkei tonight! Should open at ~43 tomorrow. I wish I'd waited :lol . This is all about expectations of US slowdown and its impact on exporters. Personally I don't expect much impact on nintendo, but I can certainly understand the concern.

Didn't you get the memo? shidoshi bought it, Nintendo is going out of business soon because of his reckless buying habits! :lol

 

[Ether_Snake]

Bah, nintendo down another 9% on the nikkei tonight! Should open at ~43 tomorrow. I wish I'd waited :lol . This is all about expectations of US slowdown and its impact on exporters. Personally I don't expect much impact on nintendo, but I can certainly understand the concern.

Well actually there is a reason. The economy is obviously heading down, and this can only lower the purchasing power of every American. It makes government incentives to renewable energy less likely, investment in said sector from companies themselves, even if it means saving money down the line, is also less likely, people buying Wiis or games etc. will do so in smaller numbers, less people in the theaters, people won't go and buy that new pair of shoes, people will try to save more money regardless of their situation.

And this today was the bullet:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081002/wall_street.html

Pessimism about a protracted economic downturn washed over the financial markets Thursday, sending stocks plunging and further tightening the credit markets. Reports on declining factory orders and a seven-year high in jobless claims stoked fears that the government's financial rescue plan won't ward off a recession, and the Dow Jones industrials skidded nearly 350 points.

There is ample reason for concern. Even I don't feel directly affected yet, but I'm starting to look for ways to cut my expenses in my daily life, and I'm not even in the US.

Who's gonna buy an iPhone or a new iPod now or in the future? Already people are seeing their expenses under a different light right now, imagine if things get worst?

It's logical, it could get worst, it just pisses me off.

And really, I'm a guy who saves his money and I work hard and do a good job, but the markets go down taking my good investments with them, and then I'm unsure about my professional future because it seems that at the company they promote people based on how many years they've been there instead of getting feedback on who's actually doing a good job (it works by project, and the ones that are in charge of promotions are NOT on said projects, nor do they ask feedback from the managers).

Blargh, tough times. I hate this uncertainty. First time I feel like my opportunities are limited, and for reasons out of my control at that.

Heck, even gold AND oil are falling.

 

[toxicgonzo]

Ahh, somebody slap me silly.

Wachovia Bank is being rescued by Wells Fargo. Share price is $6.90, why did I sell at $3.55?

 

[gkryhewy]

Ahh, somebody slap me silly.

Wachovia Bank is being rescued by Wells Fargo. Share price is $6.90, why did I sell at $3.55?

Who could have predicted that? It's like a lottery drawing. What makes me cringe is that there was an older retired woman on some news program who lost a lot of money selling her wachovia shares monday for $1.xx. That really sucks.

Well actually there is a reason. The economy is obviously heading down, and this can only lower the purchasing power of every American. It makes government incentives to renewable energy less likely, investment in said sector from companies themselves, even if it means saving money down the line, is also less likely, people buying Wiis or games etc. will do so in smaller numbers, less people in the theaters, people won't go and buy that new pair of shoes, people will try to save more money regardless of their situation.

I understand, but assuming the bailout passes, this can still be a recession rather than a depression.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Let's hope so.

UBI down 5% right now. Back to where it was a year ago, at 45, after having gone all the way up to 70 euros.

 

[gkryhewy]

Closed-door debate?

9:14 A.M. -
DEBATE - The House proceeded with one hour of debate on H. Res. 1525

Considered as privileged matter.

 

[Tarazet]

They're voting on whether to proceed with a further 90 minutes of debate. Wish I could sit at home and watch it.

 

[Ether_Snake]

You can watch it on c-span.org

 

[onipex]

Ahh, somebody slap me silly.

Wachovia Bank is being rescued by Wells Fargo. Share price is $6.90, why did I sell at $3.55?

I jumped in right when you jumped out. I really didn't think anyone would let Wachovia go out.

 

[gkryhewy]

T minus 30 minutes.

A bailout approaches!

 

[Tarazet]

BCSVD, a $20 put on Barclays, went from $1.65 (what I paid) to $0.35, as BCS stock went up 10%. Should I buy another one? Misery loves company, after all.

 

[gkryhewy]

BCSVD, a $20 put on Barclays, went from $1.65 (what I paid) to $0.35, as BCS stock went up 10%. Should I buy another one? Misery loves company, after all.

I would not bet against financials today unless you think the bailout will fail.

 

[Tarazet]

I would not bet against financials today unless you think the bailout will fail.

I'm just trying to have a strong position no matter what happens, and it looks like a prime opportunity to strengthen the bearish side.

 

[toxicgonzo]

Who could have predicted that?

It was reported early this week that Citigroup and Wells Fargo were bidding for Wachovia. It didn't matter who won just so long as somebody would rescue Wachovia.

I jumped in right when you jumped out. I really didn't think anyone would let Wachovia go out.

^5. Got any other good stock tips?





Oh, by the way, be advised:

"Citigroup (C 20.35, -2.15) issued a press release stating that Wachovia (WB 6.62, +2.72) breached its exclusivity agreement when agreeing to merge with Wells Fargo (WFC 37.56, +2.40). Citi has demanded Wachovia and Wells Fargo terminate the transaction."