snatches said:
Hey SC:
What is the typical average in NA of Jan-Sep HW sales vs Oct-Dec HW Sales? As a percentage of annual sales I mean.
For example: 60% Jan-Sep, 40% Oct-Dec?
Just curious in analyzing the 360 potential for the rest of the year.
It's a tricky number to get from an industry standpoint, because the first 15 months of a platform's life, the number's usually out of whack, and then you've got staggered launches, etc.
Anyway,
Here's the percentage of HW sales by year of Oct-Dec relative to the whole year.
2001 64.08% (Xbox, GCN, GBA later launches)
2002 53.73% (Xbox, GCN very slow first 9 months)
2003 52.72%
2004 52.37%
2005 48.67%
So, if we look at Xbox's sales, that might be more indicative.
2001 100.00%
2002 54.78%
2003 55.30%
2004 48.92%
2005 31.80%
It looks to me that you should be able to bank 55%, which would give you 2.56M units to be sold through the rest of the year. (2.1M units have been sold YTD). That would give you 4.6M+ units by the end of this calendar year based on current sales and historical trends. Interestingly, the year Halo came out it dropped to it's lowest (not including 2005 when units were in low supply)