Arnold making the promotional rounds in China for Terminator Genisys - tracking is good.
Appeared on the Voice China lol
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Wkd Box Office 0814-1615 - Straight Outta Competition, super B.O.M.B.A for Superman
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Matt_
World's #1 One Direction Fan: Everyone else in the room can see it, everyone else but you~~~
So just looking at Boxoffice.com's long range forecast, and they've penciled in Pan for a 19M opener and a 57M life time gross, that cant be right surely? I would have thought that WB would through all their marketing weight behind it, given that it looks like quite an expensive film, which would ensure at least a 30M+ opener
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Compton basically closed out the Summer. People are kinda waiting for Thanksgiving at this point.
Deadline is projecting less than $7M for American Ultra this weekend. Not a good few weeks for the Chronicle alums. At least the film was fairly cheap to produce.
It hasn't been a good month for anyone connected to Chronicle.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I wonder if studios are going to start looking at that August slot as a legitimate slot for possible moneymakers, now. Still getting summer dollars, but benefiting from extended legs due to September/October being mostly a wasteland.
It seems like at least the first two weekends in August are considered legitimate release slots, but I don't see a lot of rush to move into the second two weekends yet. As of now, we have Suicide Squad releasing August 5th next year and Pete's Dragon releasing August 12th. Nothing substantial is on the schedule after that. Everyone wants to crowd into July despite the fact that half the films release in July always underperform/bomb due to competition.
Future Foundation
Member
I think it's got a shot into September. I don't really see anything really hitting it until Scorch Trials/Black Mass/possibly Everest.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Black Mass might really do something if the marketing stays on point.
It will drop from first place by Sept 11th at the latest due to natural attrition. By then, Compton will be in its 5th weekend. Even with great drops, it will be under $8M by that point.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
The film is tracking well - $100 million is a lock at this point. Paramount (Viacom) will most likely greenlight another Terminator sequel, with a lower budget, and seek co-production with China (much like they have done for Mission Impossible & Transformers).
Side note, Mission Impossible - Rogue Nation now stands at $405 million.
With the help of China, the film will most assuredly pass Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol. That is great since the yen, yuan, and eu currency have greatly devalued since.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=mi5.htm
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
China, stop rewarding shitty movies.
Friday Estimates:
1) Straight Outta Compton - $8.3M - $93M total
2) Sinister 2 - $4.7M
3) Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation - $3.4M - $149M total
4) Hitman: Agent 47 - $3.1M
5) The Man from U.N.C.L.E. - $2.2M - 21M total
6) American Ultra - $2.1M
7) The Gift - $1.3M - $28M total
8) Ant-Man - $1.2M - $162M total
9) Minions - $1.1M - $317M total
10) Fantastic Four - $1.1M - $47M total
Fantastic Four "only" dropped 1420 venues this weekend, and is down another 57% from last Friday. It looks like it will have poor but not extraordinary bad legs. $50M is obviously happening. $60M might happen depending on drops over the next 2 weeks. Beating Chronicle still looks out of reach.
Ant-man continues to hold well, dropping 23% from last Friday. Minions continues to mirror its drops.
Compton is down 65% from last Friday, but that's including $5M in Thursday previews, so the real drop is closer to 57%. I expect the weekend drop to be in that range.
The Yuan is about even with its early 2012 value actually. It was 6.3 Yuan/USD in Jan 2012 and is now close to 6.4 Yuan/USD.
Terminator Genisys posting the 4th highest midnight opening of all time in China is suggesting that we might see something closer to $150M there.
1) Straight Outta Compton - $8.3M - $93M total
2) Sinister 2 - $4.7M
3) Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation - $3.4M - $149M total
4) Hitman: Agent 47 - $3.1M
5) The Man from U.N.C.L.E. - $2.2M - 21M total
6) American Ultra - $2.1M
7) The Gift - $1.3M - $28M total
8) Ant-Man - $1.2M - $162M total
9) Minions - $1.1M - $317M total
10) Fantastic Four - $1.1M - $47M total
Fantastic Four "only" dropped 1420 venues this weekend, and is down another 57% from last Friday. It looks like it will have poor but not extraordinary bad legs. $50M is obviously happening. $60M might happen depending on drops over the next 2 weeks. Beating Chronicle still looks out of reach.
Ant-man continues to hold well, dropping 23% from last Friday. Minions continues to mirror its drops.
Compton is down 65% from last Friday, but that's including $5M in Thursday previews, so the real drop is closer to 57%. I expect the weekend drop to be in that range.
The Yuan is about even with its early 2012 value actually. It was 6.3 Yuan/USD in Jan 2012 and is now close to 6.4 Yuan/USD.
Terminator Genisys posting the 4th highest midnight opening of all time in China is suggesting that we might see something closer to $150M there.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
Fucking China...
Messypandas
Member
Terminator 6 to have a Chinese sub-plot confirmed.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Yup. At this point, Paramount will greenlight a sequel, bring the budget down to $120 million, and co-prod with China.
That should bring Terminator: Genisys to a minimum of $450 million ww if legs are weaker than anticipated.
September but it's coming in between two other big releases.
It will have a Chinese release, but the other films I mentioned would have been behind Fury Road without China. Ant-Man should pass Fury Road before it is released in China. It's less than $20M behind at this point, and it has at least $10M more in the tank domestically (plus openings in South Korea and Japan in September).
With a decent run in China and South Korea, Ant-Man could pass Thor 1 worldwide.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I agree! I want a sequel too, guilty pleasure of mine.
Hope they fine tune the script though.
OG_Original Gamer
Member
With the media attack on Dr.Dre pass, it may drop off the charts all together. Even though the movie isn't about one man. Having the number one film in the country can have negative consequences.
Fury Road really needed a China release, won't make any money at the box office. Great film but bad business.
That was expected given both films' trajectories.
Ant-Man is now a little over $5M behind Captain America: First Avenger at the same point in its run, and is gaining quickly (Cap only made $630k on its 6th Friday). In fact, Ant-Man's 6th Friday isn't much lower than that of The Winter Soldier and Iron Man 2. It looks like Ant-Man will end up with the third best legs of the MCU movies behind Guardians and Iron Man 1.
BronsonLee
Member
You again.
I have no idea what is being said here. It's not going to drop off like that.
I don't think that will effect it really, yeah, it's a fucked up mess but I doubt the public will care.
It's amazing how far the film has come since the opening weeks.
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
how do they know this? is it surveys?
BronsonLee
Member
Movie theaters can tell the race and gender of a person based on the temperature of their seat when they sit down.
Movie Theaters: Innovating in Ass Tech Since 2015
Which will benefit Ant-Man in the long-run if Marvel decides to do a sequel, more so if said sequel delivers.
Did you read my post from the other thread warboy:
Loved the film. Definitely bad business though. Fury Road was overbudget, lost money, has no China release, and no sequel. Mediocre.
Given the reception since release, I think Ant-Man could have been another $200M+ domestic hit if they knew how to market the movie, and perhaps if Age of Ultron was received better. Considering how few comic films break a 3x multiplier (regardless of their opening), I think it is safe to say that people generally like the film.
That said, $170M is pretty much locked at this point, and Ant-Man has a good shot at ending up in the $175-180M range. I think that is pretty good, given its budget/marketing campaign. Most people were predicting Cap 1/Thor 1 numbers prior to release, and it looks like Ant-man will get there, despite the smaller opening.
BronsonLee
Member
Why do you keep trying to make me read terrible Forbes articles
Hope so, I want me my Scott and Hope team up film. It's just Disney was all in Inside Out but at the same time, they weren't sure how to market Antman. I just hope Disney sees it as a success.
BronsonLee
Member
They totally fucking flopped on marketing Tomorrowland, too. It really does depend. Disney seems like they can fuck up a lot on marketing (John Carter, Prince of Persia) etc, which puts those movies behind the 8 ball.
ultracal31
You don't get to bring friends.
Skynet is in China for...some reason confirmed
Messofanego
Banned
Wasn't Lone Ranger also Disney?
Yep but that was likely due to competing with Despicable Me 2.
I think it's pretty funny how the marketing ended up with Ant Man. Personally, knowing how comedic in nature MCU films tend to be (and the fact that the lead is Paul Rudd), some of those earlier trailers seemed WAY too serious, to the point where it was a turn off.
Yet (anecdotal, of course), I've had at least three family members/friends ask me if I saw Ant Man, followed by the question "Is that movie, like, a joke? It's like a parody of the Avengers, right?"
I don't know how that impression got out there after the seemingly serious marketing at first, and I don't know if that's why the film is doing as "well" as it's doing, but the idea that it's a "joke movie" seems to be out there. Very weird.
I think the idea that it's directly following the fucking Avengers is really hurting it. Besides the fact that AOU was underwhelming, you go from that massive crossover event to... Ant Man, less than two months later. Just doesn't seem all that exciting in comparison
even though I enjoyed Ant Man more than AOU 
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