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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?

  • Yes, will be approved without changes.

    Votes: 221 24.9%

  • Yes, will be approved but with structural changes to ABK.

    Votes: 102 11.5%

  • Yes, will be approved but only with behavioral concessions.

    Votes: 262 29.6%

  • No, will not be approved.

    Votes: 301 34.0%
  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
Mibu no ookami

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Loxus said:
Haven't seen Sony say that.

In all honesty, Sony doesn't want to lose the revenue COD brings in, especially to the only competition they have in the console space. That's like having COD as one of their studies, but without the investment.

Realistically speaking, Xbox having COD isn't going to change the landscape by much. Imo based on Sony saying 30% of PS5 owners never had a Playstation console, Microsoft is trying to stop Sony from taking away anymore of their user base.
Click to expand...

Not all of that 30% comes from Xbox users. Many are just first-time gamers i.e. this is their first console (maybe they're 10 years old) or you have people drawn in to games like Hogwarts and now they're gamers. I bet Hogwarts is bringing in a lot of female first-time console gamers. Which is huge for Sony and PS5.
 
Mibu no ookami

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
Sanepar said:
People talking about Sony going after Capcom and Square. I would go after CDPR, Larian and FromSoftware first. They need to lock rpgs first.
Click to expand...

I think FromSoftware makes by far the most sense right now.

I wouldn't buy Larian and don't think that would significantly help PlayStation.

CDPR is an interesting one since 1) they probably aren't for sale at their current price 2) they probably aren't worth their current price. You have a mass exodus of talent in the studio since Cyberpunk, but if they can rebound from that AND you have GOG which you can rebrand to PS Store (PC) I think they might be worth it. Damage to the transmedia value of The Witcher doesn't help though.

Capcom is certainly worth it as is Sega. Square Enix isn't worth it at all.
 
Mibu no ookami

Mibu no ookami

Demoted Member® Pro™
SneakersSO said:
I don't know why you think Sony wouldn't allow GP on PS should the terms/conditions be beneficial for them to do so. I've outlined on the last page the big negotiation items that is currently stopping it. If those negotiations were to ever put those individual items in a place where Sony feels their ecosystem benefits from the inclusion, then it goes without saying they'd allow it. Heck, Sony already allows multiple sub services within their ecosystem, so they aren't against it. It just has to make sense and not jeopardize their ability to sell SW at full price.

MS will almost assuredly ensure CoD and almost all of ABK remains multiplatform. This is a deal orders of magnitude larger than Bethesda, and its the type of deal where they really wouldn't want to compromise on the value they are buying - lowering the platforms those releases are on would do so. And even on a larger timescale, like for example say its 10 years right: thats even less reason for them to simply cut off multiplatform support. You're telling me MS is going to spend a decade enjoying the extremely lucrative revenue streams its getting from ABK, simply to turn around and cut it all off? For what? The long-term goal of MS in the gaming space is to increase the platforms they are publishing on, not decrease. Thats always been the plan, its just doing so in a way where they have leverage to set terms that are most beneficial to them.

As for Cloud, thats a whole other thing. I'm not sure MS will ever be able to convince consumers to adopt a content distribution model they aren't adopting in sufficient enough numbers as is, and that has more to do with the infrastructure issues Cloud faces. Sure, long term, most folks anticipate the issues with internet infrastructure in many gaming markets will improve, but so far there hasn't been enough political traction (at least in the USA) to ensure that'll happen, and this is unquestionably one of the most lucrative regions for gaming, next to China.

I don't think anyone can answer what gaming will look like 20 years from, just like you couldn't go back to 2003 and tell folks that some of the biggest revenue drivers in gaming would be games we play on our mobile devices. If network infrastructures in some of the most lucrative regions for gaming in the world don't reach a point where Cloud adoption is allowed to thrive, then i'm not sure that the need for devices to locally render gaming experiences will ever go away. I see a lot of this when folks discuss Cloud, speaking as if its some inevitability, but we've been talking about Cloud rendering in this way since 2010 and we still have nothing but burnt capital and not much else to show for it.


Era has been unbelievably confident that this deal would pass without issue this entire time. Its a big cycle over there with this. I've outlined previously how I view how this week's presentation went down, but they are completely ignoring some of the stated objections of both the EC and CMA in favor of believing that the Nvidia and Nintendo deals completely wipe away any issues that regulators could have with this.

I'm not even saying this deal is dead - it very much isn't. But its got a high bar to clear and I personally do not feel that the deals MS has made alleviate the stated objections of the EC, and especially the CMA.
Click to expand...

Terms and conditions are beneficial until they aren't.

Sony wouldn't want GP to cannibalize their game sales and condition people not to buy games. Even if Sony was taking a 90% cut of revenue from GP users on PS platforms, it could STILL cost them money and obviously the terms won't be that much in their favor.

Sony could do their own gamepass, the reason they don't is it's entirely too expensive and damaging to their core revenue model.

I think instead Sony will make PS+ Premium more valuable in other ways like bundling Crunchyroll/Funimation and trying to get anime fans in line with PlayStation for the rest of time.
 
ChorizoPicozo

ChorizoPicozo

Member
Mibu no ookami said:
Terms and conditions are beneficial until they aren't.

Sony wouldn't want GP to cannibalize their game sales and condition people not to buy games. Even if Sony was taking a 90% cut of revenue from GP users on PS platforms, it could STILL cost them money and obviously the terms won't be that much in their favor.
Click to expand...
is not even that.

is the fact that sony will give acces to Xbox to PlayStation's consumers. sony has nothing to win (especially in the current conditions).


Mibu no ookami said:
Sony could do their own gamepass, the reason they don't is it's entirely too expensive and damaging to their core revenue model.
Click to expand...
lol. marketing has blind your eyes.

playstation has its own game pass.


Mibu no ookami said:
I think instead Sony will make PS+ Premium more valuable in other ways like bundling Crunchyroll/Funimation and trying to get anime fans in line with PlayStation for the rest of time.
Click to expand...
or what MS promised without the snake-oil
salesman pitch. which they already are doing.
 
HoofHearted

HoofHearted

Member
adamsapple said:
lotion-laptop.gif
Click to expand...
 
Warablo

Warablo

Member
Mibu no ookami said:
I think FromSoftware makes by far the most sense right now.

I wouldn't buy Larian and don't think that would significantly help PlayStation.

CDPR is an interesting one since 1) they probably aren't for sale at their current price 2) they probably aren't worth their current price. You have a mass exodus of talent in the studio since Cyberpunk, but if they can rebound from that AND you have GOG which you can rebrand to PS Store (PC) I think they might be worth it. Damage to the transmedia value of The Witcher doesn't help though.

Capcom is certainly worth it as is Sega. Square Enix isn't worth it at all.
Click to expand...
While a Japanese developer seems to make sense to buy for Sony, I just don't see much point. Those studios are already associated with Sony so hard they are almost a exclusive already.

Not sure if CDPR is too fond of Sony (especially after Cyberpunk) and has always partnered with Xbox.
 
Loxus

Loxus

Member
Edmund said:
I don't know why but I'm reading your tweet in a Naruto screaming voice especially the one where you're flaming the other guy lmao.


Click to expand...

I'm wondering if MGS means Microsoft Game Studios.

They also listed MGS separate from GamePass.
For example, for Xbox, digital games are purchased via the Xbox Store; Xbox's MGS, Game Pass, is also available through the Xbox Store (and likewise for PlayStation and the PlayStation Store, and Nintendo and the Nintendo Store).

Dude has me so confuse.

Edit;
So MGS = Multi-game subscription

GamePass cannibalizing game sale revenue means it's a competitor to buying games?
How does that shut down anything?
 
Last edited:
Hendrick's

Hendrick's

If only my penis was as big as my GamerScore!
IllegalLemon said:
I know this isn't relevant in this specific discussion & if the mods find it irrelevant or platform war material, feel free to remove it and give me a warning if required.



I find it funny that our boy Timy here has used Vgchartz media, when Xbox was beating playstation in sales for almost 4 months, & yet when these charts flip around and show playstation demolishing xbox with an almost 3:1 ratio in sales, he can't seem to keep the same energy. What a hypocrite and shill. Nevermind the other guy he quoted, who was trashing xbox, he's just another platform warrior. I normally ignore console war stuff like this, but Tim's damage control is on another level. Xbox is doing amazingly well, yet some fanboys can't seem to accept it when their rival is outselling their favourite box.
Click to expand...

You're just mad because you have no games.
 
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IllegalLemon

IllegalLemon

Member
MasterCornholio said:
Sony fanboys are trying to manipulate the CMA under Sonys orders?

That's just crazy.
Click to expand...
Either the guy is watching way too many sci-fi movies or he's high. Sony mind control my ass, they(MS) had 20 years, what have they been doing in that time. CMA's interests lie in protecting consumers, not protecting Sony. The mental gymnastics are insane with these fellas.
 
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POKEYCLYDE

POKEYCLYDE

Member
MasterCornholio said:
Honestly I don't see how he can claim that Microsoft won. The CMA, FTC and EC haven't approved the deal yet with Microsoft keeping COD. According to Microsoft they won't take Activision without COD.
Click to expand...
There are some that believe the deal is as good as passed and some who believe the deal is already dead. Two sides of the same coin. Whatever the outcome there'll be some meltdowns.

Edit: If the deal passes there'll be people yelling about how the regulators are incompetent or corrupt, if the deal is blocked you'll see the same.
 
Last edited:
MasterCornholio

MasterCornholio

Member
POKEYCLYDE said:
There are some that believe the deal is as good as passed and some who believe the deal is already dead. Two sides of the same coin. Whatever the outcome there'll be some meltdowns.

Edit: If the deal passes there'll be people yelling about how the regulators are incompetent or corrupt, if the deal is blocked you'll see the same.
Click to expand...

If the CMA doesn't change their stance then it's going to be difficult for Microsoft to keep COD. That one IP appears to be the the thing that makes or breaks the deal.
 
aries_71

aries_71

Junior Member
POKEYCLYDE said:
There are some that believe the deal is as good as passed and some who believe the deal is already dead. Two sides of the same coin. Whatever the outcome there'll be some meltdowns.

Edit: If the deal passes there'll be people yelling about how the regulators are incompetent or corrupt, if the deal is blocked you'll see the same.
Click to expand...
There‘s another possible reaction, that is more typically Neogaf. Whether the deal passes or not, there will be people downplaying the importance of the passed/blocked deal. You will find very prolific gaf posters explaining why CoD is totally irrelevant.
 
James Sawyer Ford

James Sawyer Ford

Member
b6a6es said:
Since it’s very clear that the CMA (and possibly EC) would reject the MS’s behavioral remedies of 10 years plan as it’s clearly not enough (OG MW was released 16 years ago! and the series still topping the sales chart ever since), and since it’ll be a quite month ahead of us newswise I’d say its time for predictions:

Personally Im 50/50 on either the deal going through with 20+ years deal with Sony (if not perpetual) in behavior remedies, including a guaranteed B2P option on cloud or F2P in case of Warzone), as this will give Sony enough time to create its substitute in its ecosystem longterm,


Or they’ll stick for structural remedies or Block situation, which means the deal’s dead for good




To me personally the main issue isn’t subscriptions like GP, but rather availability to consumers of 100M+ userbase, especially in longterm
Click to expand...

95% chance the deal is dead given Microsoft’s statements of keeping CoD

Regulators don’t want the headache of enforcing long term and complex contracts in an area that is dynamically and rapidly changing. They have admitted as such

Microsoft’s meeting last week just reiterated their original weak woe is me argument and did not address CMA’s concerns at all.
 
jm89

jm89

Member
James Sawyer Ford said:
95% chance the deal is dead given Microsoft’s statements of keeping CoD

Regulators don’t want the headache of enforcing long term and complex contracts in an area that is dynamically and rapidly changing. They have admitted as such

Microsoft’s meeting last week just reiterated their original weak woe is me argument and did not address CMA’s concerns at all.
Click to expand...
I'll be surprised if CMA do end up accepting behavioral remedies.

Microsoft basically told the CMA fuck you in public, other companies are no doubt watching this unfold and CMA basically going down the behaviroul remedy route may look as them bowing to pressure and embolden other companies to use similar tactics. It's quite obvious from the PF and history they generally do not want behavioral remedies, well this case right here will force them to change that, it will set a precedent whether they like it or not.
 
feynoob

feynoob

Banned
jm89 said:
I'll be surprised if CMA do end up accepting behavioral remedies.

Microsoft basically told the CMA fuck you in public, other companies are no doubt watching this unfold and CMA basically going down the behaviroul remedy route may look as them bowing to pressure and embolden other companies to use similar tactics. It's quite obvious from the PF and history they generally do not want behavioral remedies, well this case right here will force them to change that, it will set a precedent whether they like it or not.
Click to expand...
MS to CMA
here you go saints and sinners GIF by Bounce
 
Sanepar

Sanepar

Member
jm89 said:
I'll be surprised if CMA do end up accepting behavioral remedies.

Microsoft basically told the CMA fuck you in public, other companies are no doubt watching this unfold and CMA basically going down the behaviroul remedy route may look as them bowing to pressure and embolden other companies to use similar tactics. It's quite obvious from the PF and history they generally do not want behavioral remedies, well this case right here will force them to change that, it will set a precedent whether they like it or not.
Click to expand...
Corruption my friend... bribe is the key for this deal.
 
Yoboman

Yoboman

Member
Warablo said:
While a Japanese developer seems to make sense to buy for Sony, I just don't see much point. Those studios are already associated with Sony so hard they are almost a exclusive already.

Not sure if CDPR is too fond of Sony (especially after Cyberpunk) and has always partnered with Xbox.
Click to expand...
Sony buys where there are synergies, a working relationship and ideally addresses some weakness of Sony and brings in additional knowledge

From Software fits the bill there but they are also a cashcow now for Kadokawa and won't part cheaply

CDPR helps with WRPGs but you can't describe their relationship with Sony in good terms. Maybe that will turn around but other than improving their PS5 port of Cyberpunk there doesn't seem to be evidence of that
 
C

Cheezewizz

Banned
jm89 said:
I'll be surprised if CMA do end up accepting behavioral remedies.

Microsoft basically told the CMA fuck you in public, other companies are no doubt watching this unfold and CMA basically going down the behaviroul remedy route may look as them bowing to pressure and embolden other companies to use similar tactics. It's quite obvious from the PF and history they generally do not want behavioral remedies, well this case right here will force them to change that, it will set a precedent whether they like it or not.
Click to expand...
While I agree that the optics of this whole ordeal are likely to have far reaching effects. I'm not sure it was MS's intent to give the CMA a "fuck you" publicly.

I think many people believe MS and the CMA to be more hostile than is truly the case here. Many also believe that the CMA is being prejudiced against MS when that's not really the case either. What is the case, is that up until literally a few days before MS announced the acquisition, the CMA sat at the kiddie table of regulatory bodies. Due to Brexit, the CMA is now an equal to those such as their EU or US counterparts. Likely due in part to some form of Napolean complex, the CMA has decided that it will become the predominant regulatory commission worldwide. The problem with that is that doing so pits them directly against the EU in some cases.

Another thing to point out is that despite what they say, the real reason the CMA is so resistant to behavioral remedies is unlike regulators in other countries, the CMA has no authority to fine companies who breach those behavioral terms. At best, they can try and wrangle some money through civil litigation but that's an often unsuccessful strategy that can take years and eats up taxpayers money.
 
gothmog

gothmog

Gold Member
POKEYCLYDE said:
There are some that believe the deal is as good as passed and some who believe the deal is already dead. Two sides of the same coin. Whatever the outcome there'll be some meltdowns.

Edit: If the deal passes there'll be people yelling about how the regulators are incompetent or corrupt, if the deal is blocked you'll see the same.
Click to expand...
The three biggest regulatory bodies pretty much said no. It's not two sides of the same coin. I don't see Microsoft's refusal to even talk about divestiture and their continued PR campaigns helping any regulator change their mind. If anything, it continues the history of Microsoft kinda thumbing their noses at government bodies.
 
PaintTinJr

PaintTinJr

Member
Edmund said:
I don't know why but I'm reading your tweet in a Naruto screaming voice especially the one where you're flaming the other guy lmao.


Click to expand...

This is probably the worst thought out thing he's wrote about this deal since the thread began IMHO.

I appreciate his hustle for the deal - and his paid day - but he's very foolish to believe that a non-self-sustaining service funded by the parent $2T company that cannibalises B2P sales can both compete as a sale, while not competing from a business perspective. When Microsoft can have Xbox afford the real running costs of Gamepass/Xcloud and fund the acquisition of ATVI, then his point would be valid to the CMA.

Fair or not, this acquisition with CoD on gamepass kills tax revenue from ATVI B2P sales - and also gives MSFT more losses to offset against tax - revenue that even the CMA indirectly relies on to keep their department/quango funded. They are never going to cut off billions in taxable revenue for a company that isn't complying with their directives to get the deal past.
 
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