I don’t agree. PS5 Pro is only 16 TF and it’s already 700 dollar machine. I would guess around 22 TF at $499 for PS6 in 2028. But with a lot more robust Ray-tracing/Path-tracing and AI-driven enhancements.
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Let's face it: GPU manufacturers have hit the wall and things are only going to get worse from here.
- Thread starter Corporal.Hicks
- Start date
Black_Stride
do not tempt fate do not contrain Wonder Woman's thighs do not do not
TPU updates reviews every now and then.
Look at the latest reviews........of 4K.
And do the maths yourself cuz their chart? doesnt update as often as the actual reviews.
Even if we really should be looking at 1440p results.
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LazyParrot
Member
No more progress in graphics hardware is the best thing that could happen to the industry.
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Thebonehead
Gold Member
RCX
Member
Agreed OP. For now the only major gains will come from increasing power draw.
New and improved feature sets (more dlss, frame gen etc) will help fill in the gaps but we are at an impasse for sure.
I've said for a long time that the pursuit of better and better graphics is one of the main things thats hurting videogames. It costs more money, more time and isnt leading to greater sales. The industry needs to step back and make games that aren't as reliant on shiny tech. Find new gameplay ideas, new mechanics, focus on making 60fps with PS4-level graphics the absolute industry standard.
Do that and the inexorable push in GPU power won't be necessary. It all looked good enough last gen.
New and improved feature sets (more dlss, frame gen etc) will help fill in the gaps but we are at an impasse for sure.
I've said for a long time that the pursuit of better and better graphics is one of the main things thats hurting videogames. It costs more money, more time and isnt leading to greater sales. The industry needs to step back and make games that aren't as reliant on shiny tech. Find new gameplay ideas, new mechanics, focus on making 60fps with PS4-level graphics the absolute industry standard.
Do that and the inexorable push in GPU power won't be necessary. It all looked good enough last gen.
Thebonehead
Gold Member
Lots of reports online that intel are selling it as a loss leader to pull people into the system. They're also using their own foundries to make the cards.
Take that with a punch of salt though.
Knightime_X
Member
Imagine thinking dlss is a gimmick.
Like it or love it, DLSS is the future, and it's getting better and better.
DLSS has MASSIVELY expanded the life of older gpus by a large margin.
A lot of games would be hugely unplayable or just awful without it.
Like it or love it, DLSS is the future, and it's getting better and better.
DLSS has MASSIVELY expanded the life of older gpus by a large margin.
A lot of games would be hugely unplayable or just awful without it.
hyperbertha
Member
I don't know. Seeing path tracing in real time has been more impressive than any graphical jump to me of that era. We are in the age where games are starting to look like the cg cutscenes of old.
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peish
Member
Nvidia is strangely quiet about their 50 series launch. It is 2 more days, but where is the hyping?
I think the prices will either be very high because of TSMC sucking the life out of us.
Or the performance uplift is less than 50%
Or both!
We are doomed because how many more nm TSMC can monopolize?
I think the prices will either be very high because of TSMC sucking the life out of us.
Or the performance uplift is less than 50%
Or both!
We are doomed because how many more nm TSMC can monopolize?
peish
Member
Something about current PT demos, they look too hazy and dreamy. Modders can turn down some parameters i want to believe rather than hardware limitations.
But also something about PT just looks "right", the environment looks really nicely lit where light goes where it should goes. I dont know how to explain it, but PT is the jump we needed to reach CGI graphics. UE5 already brought us unlimited polygons. We are almost there except for TSMC nickel and dimed us!
MacReady13
Member
Most people have mobile phones that do plenty of shit like a PC so that makes PC’s not exactly necessary for many people. So if you’re one of those people who just want to play games and can do the rest on a phone, get a fucking console and stop trying to convince people that PC’s “might be a bit more expensive but do other stuff as well”… I’ve heard that shit for many years and that doesn’t work anymore.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
But the actual results will speak of a different story
.Sony is on a path to invest heavily in AI assisted rendering (and more… as they will want something generalised, whether this will mean having an NPU on top of what they are building in the GPU too / Amethyst I am not sure, I think PS6 gives them the chance to reinvent the architecture keeping BC without as an over careful approach as they would have done before… notice the PS5 Pro approach to BC compared to PS4 Pro; as expected they worked on the PS5 SDK and their BC tools to make PS5 Pro BC work seamlessly without huge compromises on the HW side [no “butterfly” approach doubling CUs, no restriction on upping the GPU max clocks, etc…]).
Feels like we should start a PS6 prediction thread
. Listening to Devs, Evolution vs Revolution, and Finding a New Dream.
I think it is safe to say PS6 will have the same basic design pillars in the same way PS5 Pro followed an improved version of the design pillars PS4 Pro was designed by. I am curious where their roadmap and AMD’s will lead them. What do devs really want? What are the New Dreams? Etc…
I think all the HW designs, including PS Vita, Cerny’s team has delivered have been quite great and improving over time. I think after all this time it is safe to say they are a quite good design team making good use of the budget they are given.
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ThisIsMyDog
Member
pc-minoritieswill pay more and more,
to remain profitability of the dying pc-market!
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
Not exactly what he stated, certain approaches / certain parts of the GPU are not the main focus but it does not mean that you will not see improvements there. Just do not expect pixel fill rate to go up ten folds, clockspeed to go to 4-5 GHz, and the number of CUs to go up 2-3x… do not assume this means that those metrics would not go up at all. They will not be as important as others sure, RT and AI performance and usefulness will be major focuses and would see novel state of the art jumps (further refined by PS6 Pro of course, but then again getting a bit too far ahead with this one hehe).
Puscifer
Member
Financial GOAALLLSSSSS
But I also can't deny working for the feds is like easy mode retirement and raises. Makes me scared to leave even though I've wanted too for a few years
The best a phone can do, even the best of them, is Facebook, paying bills, email and candy crush. You're lying if you tell me that your phone is good enough for even basic word processing.
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Haint
Member
But the actual results will speak of a different story
Sony is on a path to invest heavily in AI assisted rendering (and more… as they will want something generalised, whether this will mean having an NPU on top of what they are building in the GPU too / Amethyst I am not sure, I think PS6 gives them the chance to reinvent the architecture keeping BC without as an over careful approach as they would have done before… notice the PS5 Pro approach to BC compared to PS4 Pro; as expected they worked on the PS5 SDK and their BC tools to make PS5 Pro BC work seamlessly without huge compromises on the HW side).
Feels like we should start a PS6 prediction thread
I think it is safe to say PS6 will have the same basic design pillars in the same way PS5 Pro followed an improved version of the design pillars PS4 Pro was designed following. I am curious what their roadmap and AMD will lead them. What do devs really want? What are the New Dreams? Etc…
I think all the HW, including PS Vita, Cerny’s team has been driving have been quite great and improving over time. I think after all this time it is safe to say they are a quite good design team making good use of the budget they have been given.
Give how little improvement the $800 Pro delivered after 4 years, the absolute best you can reasonably and semi-realistically hope for PS6 is ~25 single mode teraflops (or 50 by the new "fake" dual mode double counted flops, which will translate to ~30TF's in practice), with some marginal RT and PSSR improvements over Pro. A real world ~2.5x increase over base PS5 with better upscaling. Late 2027 or 2028 with no disc drive and 24GB of RAM, cheapest model $600 USD.
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Corporal.Hicks
Member
DLSS is great in its current state, but technically speaking it's not a test of true GPU power. DLSS and FG are clever ways of improving performance, but it almost feels like cheating.
In some games like RDR2 even DLSS performance looks A LOT better than native TAA, but I had to upgrade the DLSS DLL file to the latest 3.8.1 because the default DLL looked even worse than TAA.
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
The PS5 Pro, at $699 (not sure why people get excited and have to prop the price to $799, it does not make your argument stronger) was not designed like the PS5 was or the PS6 will be (its main goal was to avoid as many solutions that would require custom PS5 Pro work from developers separate from the PS5 work they were already doing as possible, stating that it would not be the main goal behind PS6 outside of a BC mode) . When all is said and done I think PS5 Pro will actually deliver better end results for players than PS4 Pro too.
Economy has changed over time (first generation where the base price of the consoles actually rose over time) and Sony has decided to increase the margins on a premium product aimed at enthusiasts.
IMHO, you are vastly underestimating RT improvements, there is lots to do there ( https://gfxspeak.com/featured/the-levels-tracing/ ), and AI assisted rendering ones (there is so much that denoising / ray reconstruction can deliver to make the RT improvements even more meaningful).
This is on top of the CPU changing (you can expect a compact core based on Zen 6/Zen 6+), RAM increasing (likely 32 GB with a significant bandwidth increase too), etc… Personally quite excited to see what DualSense 2 will bring in terms of enhanced haptics and controller features, let alone cheaper and wireless (plus optional wired) PSVR3 (with eye-tracked foveated rendering, PSSR, and async space warp recently added in GT7 thanks to the new SDK, we are close to have the same exact visuals on PSVR2 and PS5 Pro which will make devs support even easier… I think Sony persevering can make PSVR3 a success they do not need to spend too much effort to support either).
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
As per Cerny’s presentation too, this is where the future of graphics rendering is leading to. Sparse rendering with AI inferring the rest of the pixels.
Zathalus
Member
Dying? Open your eyes and do some research.pc-minorities
to remain profitability of the dying pc-market!
Well, that'll obviously translate to "the 10th gen is going to be what the 9th gen should've been in the first place".
Xtib81
Member
This early ? Aren't we looking at a late 2027-2028 release date for Sony?
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
Not sure, but RT changed the perspective we have on history due to the misalignment (the rapid speed) with nVIDIA’s rapid RT evolution. With that said we went from not even thinking RT would be in these consoles to be there nominally to have quite a lot of games with decent RT use (Spider-man 2 with no RT-off mode and going 60+ FPS with quite cool RT reflections).
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
As Cerny was saying in his speech they start painting the picture of what they think they want quite early on. PS5 Pro being designed before PS5 hit the market, etc…
Then again both PS5 and PS5 Pro taught or should have taught people not to just go by numbers alone.
realcool
Member
Wildebeest
Member
What seems more likely for the future of "AAA" console gaming?
1. Console that is much more expensive than historical consoles, "you know, for kids", and it has a 2kw power draw and might just set your house on fire if the cooling malfunctions.
2. Console that is basically a client for streaming services, and you have to pay a hefty fee to skip queues on launch.
1. Console that is much more expensive than historical consoles, "you know, for kids", and it has a 2kw power draw and might just set your house on fire if the cooling malfunctions.
2. Console that is basically a client for streaming services, and you have to pay a hefty fee to skip queues on launch.
Codeblew
Member
I agree with you in a way. Devs could then focus on optimization of current hardware rather than just relying on Moore's Law (which is pretty much dead now) to carry them.
Soodanim
Member
That's less viable now. VRAM consumption is growing and there's an increasing reliance on DLSS etc. nVidia keep giving terrible VRAM on the lower end, and as we've seen from tests DLSS eats up VRAM. (Edit: doesn't necessarily eat it up but it doesn't help, maxed it still maxed and still tanks performance)
So a 4060 8gb isn't going to last, and even the 4060 Ti 16gb is gimped by 128-bit bus so the bare minimum for any sort of future-proofing is the 4070 12gb at £480 which has seen a big jump from the £300 the 70 series used to cost. Except it's not really a 70, it's a 60 that nVidia changed the numbers on to further fuck consumers.
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Johnny Concrete
Member
The Cyberpunk ‘extreme realism’ mods basically turns depth of field to 11.
If you do this with any game from 2024 (Balatro excluded) it looks ‘real’ since it hides all the flaws. You just need a pretty good looking foreground object.
winjer
Gold Member
Although the cost to develop new process nodes has increased significantly, there is another reason for wafer cost to have rising so much, and that is the fact that TSMC has no competition.
And because of that, STCM has rising prices several times, even on older nodes, just because they have no competition.
And with the AI boom, demand for chips is so high, that consumer chips, including gaming, were also affected.
And because of that, STCM has rising prices several times, even on older nodes, just because they have no competition.
And with the AI boom, demand for chips is so high, that consumer chips, including gaming, were also affected.
Wildebeest
Member
TSMC has no competition because the cost of setting up a production line is astronomical.
asdasdasdbb
Member
There's a reason why I think there will be a PS6 Series S and Series X.
With the S being $599.
With the S being $599.
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winjer
Gold Member
You might not remember, but years ago, there were many companies producing wafers. But they all fell off.
Credit is due to TSMC, for being able to deliver consistently.
But now we are all paying the cost, of TSMC's success.
Intel and Samsung are still able to set up high end process nodes, especially if they get government help.
But they still lack the technical know how, to keep pace with TSMC.
It would be very beneficial for us, consumers, if Intel and Samsung managed to get their nodes to compete with TSMC.
BlackTron
Member
What can we do if things only get worse with our current hobby? Maybe we should get a new hobby and play some chess
?
Madserb2023
Member
TSMC is just able to produce high end chips at a relatively low cost. They don't have some kind of alien like technological know how. The machines TSMC use are from Europe and are ultimately dictated by the technological limit of countries like the Netherlands and Germany which produce the lithography machines and the lenses etc. it's not like hyper sonic missiles or nuclear weapons tech that is heavily guarded by certain countries. Taiwanese wages are half that of Japan and about a third that of the USA yet it is an extremely well skilled workforce. The capital is there already similar to if a country already has high speed rail or highways already. The costs would be 10 10 x in California.
They have the option to go with beefier esram instead of relying on raw numbers, they still have the option regardless of how good or bad the situation may be.
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Wildebeest
Member
For the US at least, it is not a commercially viable option to set up a competitor. It is a strategic nationalist decision that will cost the nation in the short and likely also long term but acts as insurance.
MacReady13
Member
Well I know MANY people who do not need a PC. At all. Everything they could do on a PC they can do on their phone/ipad. I’m over hearing that a PC plays games “and more” over a console. Who gives a fuck? If you want to play games, get a console or a PC. PC for power. Console for convenience.
You need 10 years experience in series s.
winjer
Gold Member
Actually, the US is edging it's bets on both Intel and TSMC, as they are funding the built up of several factories in the US, for both companies.
Intel also has agreements with the EU, to fund at least one fab in Europe.
The problem is that Gelsinger wasted Billions in shareholder dividends, to prop up share prices, instead of using that money in R&D.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
TSMC doesn't sell individual chips, they sell wafers or ingots. So, their cut of the sale price of any individual desktop part will be based on the production yields.
Rudius
Member
To be honest some games already look "too good" on a regular PS5. I started playing Ratchet & Clank in the fidelity VRR mode and the game has absurd levels of detail you can see in photo mode that are impossible to notice even at 4K resolution. It's kind of a waste. And it does that with ray-tracing at a framerate that feels closer to 60 than 30fps, on a hardware pushing 5 years released for 399.I said this about the pro and will say it again about the PS6 in this same vein
People will be very let down when they see the raw numbers on the PS6
Oh and I don't need any new hobbies
Of course not all games are so well optimized, but a game like Ratchet doesn't really need better graphics and the only meaningful improvement it would get on a PS6 would be to run at 90+fps in fidelity mode instead of the 45-50 on a base PS5.
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KungFucius
King Snowflake
But what does that really mean in games? 4090 is great and only a handful of games really push it. What need is there for a 5090 at 4K? People probably should start skipping gens for GPUs.
Sure, but the estimate doesn't really change in terms of margins
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
Something like that
I recall Henderson Tweeting something like he has heard more about the PS6 than the PS5 Pro and that was when he wasn’t sure the Pro even existed
Numbers were passed around early
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