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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


  • Total voters
    886
  • Poll closed .
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Godot25

Banned
You don't start with AAA studios, just like Firewalk, Firesprite and Haven aren't AAA.
They are not going to be AAA as they don't have a product to demonstrate their work so you are not providing AAA budget.

The Initiative is not the perfect example due to covid and they also had some internal problems, didn't they?

I am not saying it's easy, what i am saying is that it will be cheaper than 70B and has more to offer to consumers as a move than playing the games they were gonna play anyway.
Of course Firewalk and Haven are AAA. Fact that they are making live service game does not mean they are AA.

Of course it is cheaper. But you are buying a publisher that is making you profit the moment you complete purchase. More than 2billion per year to be precise. Not to mention benefits it can have for your sub service and Console ecosystem in the long run.
 

Sanepar

Member
Microsoft is fundamentally not a creative company nor are they are media and entertainment company. They are simply not capable of doing what you are proposing.

The ONLY options for a monopolist are monopolize or exit. That's just how it is when you're a monopolist. When you only have a hammer, every problem is treated as a nail. And monopolists have really big hammers. We saw this with Windows and Office. We saw it with Internet Explorer. We saw it with Zune. We saw it with HD DVD. We saw it with Windows Mobile/Phone. And we're seeing it with Xbox. If MS cannot monopolize gaming with Xbox, I can guarantee you they will exit gaming just as they did with Zune, HD DVD, and Windows Phone. Technically they exited Internet Explorer too but are still pushing on with Edge even though no one uses it. That one's a head scratcher.
And who with a brain want Microsoft monopolizing game industry? That is the real question.
 

Zathalus

Member
Microsoft is fundamentally not a creative company nor are they are media and entertainment company. They are simply not capable of doing what you are proposing.

The ONLY options for a monopolist are monopolize or exit. That's just how it is when you're a monopolist. When you only have a hammer, every problem is treated as a nail. And monopolists have really big hammers. We saw this with Windows and Office. We saw it with Internet Explorer. We saw it with Zune. We saw it with HD DVD. We saw it with Windows Mobile/Phone. And we're seeing it with Xbox. If MS cannot monopolize gaming with Xbox, I can guarantee you they will exit gaming just as they did with Zune, HD DVD, and Windows Phone. Technically they exited Internet Explorer too but are still pushing on with Edge even though no one uses it. That one's a head scratcher.
By this logic, Microsoft is going to exit the Cloud market as well, as Azure is not the market leader nor does it have any hope to monopolize the market. Which is of course nonsense.

The difference between things like Azure and Xbox vs something like Zune is that the former are quite successful despite not being market leaders. Products like Zune never achieved the success Xbox has.

Maybe Xbox will fail in the future, but it certainly does not seem something that will happen anytime soon.
 

Pelta88

Member
Microsoft is fundamentally not a creative company nor are they are media and entertainment company. They are simply not capable of doing what you are proposing.

The ONLY options for a monopolist are monopolize or exit. That's just how it is when you're a monopolist. When you only have a hammer, every problem is treated as a nail. And monopolists have really big hammers. We saw this with Windows and Office. We saw it with Internet Explorer. We saw it with Zune. We saw it with HD DVD. We saw it with Windows Mobile/Phone. And we're seeing it with Xbox. If MS cannot monopolize gaming with Xbox, I can guarantee you they will exit gaming just as they did with Zune, HD DVD, and Windows Phone. Technically they exited Internet Explorer too but are still pushing on with Edge even though no one uses it. That one's a head scratcher.

A monopolist who cherish meaningless PR sound bites above all else.

Also, Phil already floated a exit strategy as seen in their internal discussions/email. Mobile.
 

Sleepwalker

Member
Don't you guys know EA Originals is just xbox id in disguise?

Emoji Think GIF
 

Bojanglez

The Amiga Brotherhood
Tom Warren is "leaking" a lot of Xbox related stuff atm, some of it seems to belong in this thread:




This is interesting and actually backs up many concerns some of us have raised here.

MS highlighting how their dominance in PC space is helping them inhibit otherwise (technically) capable competitors from entering the space.

The result is their biggest "competitor", being one of their biggest customers in the cloud space 🤔
 

havoc00

Member
Depends if the CMA pass in phase one without deferring to a phase two investigation.
Yea im totally out of the loop, so this could pass in phase one? And then its done? or does it go froward but with confidence? if it goes to phase two are we back to waiting for months again and a possible bad outcome for MS?
 

PaintTinJr

Member
CMA isn’t planning on finishing phase one of their review until the same day MS’s current agreement with Activision expires. October 18.
At that point if the CMA say they've blocked the deal, I think ATVI are free to cut and run $4.5b , even if Microsoft wanted to continue with an appeal, I think they can refuse, whereas a phase 2 places obligations on ATVI to make good on them helping the deal pass with regulators, and I believe that was why Microsoft had to cancel the JR appeal in the UK because ATVI would have been allowed to walk without consideration of Microsoft's position, and would have.
 

bitbydeath

Member
So are they gonna have to agree to extend again? More money etc?? Does this kill it etc?
I guess MS and Activision will need to plan ahead this time.

It could pass, fail, or be moved to phase 2 in which case MS and Activision would need to come to a new agreement, but it doesn’t give them much time to reassess based on the outcome provided.
 
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Banjo64

cumsessed
Yea im totally out of the loop, so this could pass in phase one? And then its done? or does it go froward but with confidence? if it goes to phase two are we back to waiting for months again and a possible bad outcome for MS?
We can only speculate.

It could pass in phase one, yes. In which case yes, the deal would finally close.

In my opinion if it goes to phase two it’s over. The chosen date seems very deliberate.
 

havoc00

Member
We can only speculate.

It could pass in phase one, yes. In which case yes, the deal would finally close.

In my opinion if it goes to phase two it’s over. The chosen date seems very deliberate.

Over as in dead if it goes to phase 2? I mean that could push it to another year possibly? If so yea I could see that killing it.
 

havoc00

Member
Yeah, just my opinion though.

Could be that ABK/MS set yet another date with another break up fee agreed if it goes to phase two.
I dont see why ABK would, they are in a way better spot than they were when this deal first started, Bobby seems to be safe etc....
 
I dont see why ABK would, they are in a way better spot than they were when this deal first started, Bobby seems to be safe etc....
I honestly feel like Bobby legit wants to retire and enjoy his golden years and this MS acquisition was going to be his swan song and golden parachute. He wants it to close for this reason alone, he doesn't give the tiniest shit about MS or ABK.
 

ReBurn

Gold Member
I dont see why ABK would, they are in a way better spot than they were when this deal first started, Bobby seems to be safe etc....
The deal is the reason ABK's buck is up like it is. If it falls through their share price will almost certainly fall as folks rush to be first to sell what they thought was going to be a guaranteed return so they can retain as much value of their investment as possible. The breakup fee isn't going to be enough to protect the share price.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
Tom Warren is "leaking" a lot of Xbox related stuff atm, some of it seems to belong in this thread:




The most revealing part of that email IMO is that despite Nvidia being their biggest competitor - as mentioned - they aren't bothering to keep a watchful eye on Nvidia, and only watch Google and Amazon that use linux based solutions.

This completely reveals the true situation how Nvidia became a $1T company, it used to be Wintel was the phrase for how Microsoft and Intel froze out competition, and that's still true in some ways in the CPU space where AMD CPUs only age badly in the Windows OS, but now we can see a clear WiNvidia partnership, where Nvidia only write one GPU HAL runtime for Windows, and it is based on DirectX and then emulate Opengl/Vulkan with lesser performance on it - while avoiding potential driver bugs from all 3 APIs. And so it is no surprise Nvidia only use licensed Windows in their cloud gaming setup despite all other competitors finding that licensing and software support cadence too slow to compete.

The Ubisoft cloud license offer on the CMA states linux versions can be requested for a fee, which really looks quite obvious as a strong SLC issue against the backdrop of this email IMO.
 
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Darsxx82

Member
I hope this thread gets real spicy again soon. The recent leaks will certainly put some pep in the CMA's cup of tea and may revitalize the FTC.

This is great.
??? Those documents were already in the hands of both... There is NOTHING in them that the FTC-CMA could use as an argument to convince a court that MS's acquisition of ABK irreparably harms the consumer or other industry participants.
 
??? Those documents were already in the hands of both... There is NOTHING in them that the FTC-CMA could use as an argument to convince a court that MS's acquisition of ABK irreparably harms the consumer or other industry participants.
The docs were uploaded on 8/14.

The statements about proxy buying into Nintendo in order to destabilize and purchase at a lower price are something.
 

Darsxx82

Member
The docs were uploaded on 8/14.
Those documents are the same ones that MS provided to the FTC in lower courts. Now the process would move to a higher one after the IP.

The statements about proxy buying into Nintendo in order to destabilize and purchase at a lower price are something.
LOL. good luck trying to convince a judge deciding on ABK adquisition being a irreparable harm to consumers and other market participants that an impossible wish (buying NUN) of P. Spencer, that has not been given, can be a valid argument.
 

zapper

Member
after the recent leaks and all the soap opera that this deal brings with it, do you think Microsoft is regretting this acquisition ?

abk has enormous value for me, but it's surreal what it has unleashed
 
after the recent leaks and all the soap opera that this deal brings with it, do you think Microsoft is regretting this acquisition ?

abk has enormous value for me, but it's surreal what it has unleashed
Microsoft has more money than God, they have never needed to regret anything ever. Even the legendary antitrust trial of the 1990's was just a bump in the road for them. When you are the 2nd largest company on Earth by market cap, the only regrets that can be had are from MS competitors who have been crushed or acquired over the years.
 

Darsxx82

Member
after the recent leaks and all the soap opera that this deal brings with it, do you think Microsoft is regretting this acquisition ?

abk has enormous value for me, but it's surreal what it has unleashed
If the purchase is finally closed, they will celebrate it with great enthusiasm and as a success. But I have no doubt that if before the proposed ABK acquisition MS Knew all the obstacles, deadlines, leaks, cost and the exposure to which their leaders have been subjected... I think P. Spencer would have thought 100 times to take the step and propose to Nadella the purchase of ABK.
 

ZehDon

Member

Can’t figure out how to embed twitter link for some odd reason - P3s comments on leaked docs ^^^^
Given the lead-time required for console hardware releases, I doubt much of the big-ticket items have changed, frankly. Specific dates might shift, but they're not whipping up brand new hardware plans eighteen months out. Running damage control right now is pointless; the breadth of information that just got dumped in going to take days to read through. Today, Microsoft should just hold the L and take it on the chin. I imagine there's a paralegal somewhere in a meeting room in the bowls of some Microsoft building about to be disappeared for uploading the wrong files.
 
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