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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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  • Poll closed .
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Bernoulli

M2 slut
It is 50:50 by chance without knowing what influence might be taking place, but I'd argue by logic, for anyone reading the original inquiry group reasoning in a pragmatic way would conclude it has more chance being blocked than passed.

The new offer needs babysitting, and doesn't displace the power from Microsoft in merged entity to alleviate any possible SLC that was deemed problematic, and the offer fundamentally fails to understand the inquiry group decision and follow their advice to remedy unblocking the merger.
Imo it's getting approved
But it's strange if the CMA accepts the Ubisoft cloud agreement. In the core it doesn't adress any concerns for the CMA and COD isn't divested
When you see from the leaks the plan is clear to use the Cloud for everything, and after the deal make everything exclusive.
But even with all that proof the FTC and CMA couldn't do anything
 

Schmick

Member
Imo it's getting approved
But it's strange if the CMA accepts the Ubisoft cloud agreement. In the core it doesn't adress any concerns for the CMA and COD isn't divested
When you see from the leaks the plan is clear to use the Cloud for everything, and after the deal make everything exclusive.
But even with all that proof the FTC and CMA couldn't do anything
Wasn't the deal that required divestiture blocked?
 

Ginzeen

Banned
Imo it's getting approved
But it's strange if the CMA accepts the Ubisoft cloud agreement. In the core it doesn't adress any concerns for the CMA and COD isn't divested
When you see from the leaks the plan is clear to use the Cloud for everything, and after the deal make everything exclusive.
But even with all that proof the FTC and CMA couldn't do anything
it does address the concerns. You think MS and the CMA would talk about a deal that doesn't address their concerns? We would be at the CAT if that was the case. CMA pointed MS in the right direction on what needed to be done.
 

Elios83

Member
Imo it's getting approved
But it's strange if the CMA accepts the Ubisoft cloud agreement. In the core it doesn't adress any concerns for the CMA and COD isn't divested
When you see from the leaks the plan is clear to use the Cloud for everything, and after the deal make everything exclusive.
But even with all that proof the FTC and CMA couldn't do anything

CMA effectively killed that deal. So they did a lot.
FTC exposed a lot of dirt as well but the legal system was just not there to support them, they needed to prove that Microsoft had the intention to withdraw COD from other platforms and they just couldn't.

We'll see what CMA will decide about this new deal. They could accept it, they could ask for a permanent sale of the cloud streaming rights to an other company in their new preliminary findings, they could go into phase 2.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
it does address the concerns. You think MS and the CMA would talk about a deal that doesn't address their concerns? We would be at the CAT if that was the case. CMA pointed MS in the right direction on what needed to be done.
AFAIK the process is such that they can't talk directly to the inquiry group,. just front of house CMA, which is why the CMA barrister in the CMC meeting said he couldn't pre-empt what the group would decide.

I assume the bar for procedural mechanisms to get something assessed and supported by front of house are significantly lower than the bar by which the inquiry group approve, and I suspect front of house don't actually give their opinion on a proposals likelihood of success in context of standing inquiry group recommendations, and merely advise on it being procedurally within the realms of "substantially different/special reasons" for consideration.
 

Ginzeen

Banned
CMA effectively killed that deal. So they did a lot.
FTC exposed a lot of dirt as well but the legal system was just not there to support them, they needed to prove that Microsoft had the intention to withdraw COD from other platforms and they just couldn't.

We'll see what CMA will decide about this new deal. They could accept it, they could ask for a permanent sale of the cloud streaming rights to an other company in their new preliminary findings, they could go into phase 2.
They didn't kill anything. MS is still expected to get ABK. I mean if that makes the CMA ego feel better then by all means cool. pass the deal. Deal has a high chance of approving. FTC had better chances of the scoring the PI then the CMA blocking again. CMA the only outlier.
 

KingT731

Member
Well, they used to, until they sucked at it and are now buying everything up. Who's there to keep that in check? Certainly not corruptible sorts.
What if I told you nothing changed but the balance because "buy it" was literally their most successful strategy through the 360 era timed or otherwise.
 

Ginzeen

Banned
AFAIK the process is such that they can't talk directly to the inquiry group,. just front of house CMA, which is why the CMA barrister in the CMC meeting said he couldn't pre-empt what the group would decide.

I assume the bar for procedural mechanisms to get something assessed and supported by front of house are significantly lower than the bar by which the inquiry group approve, and I suspect front of house don't actually give their opinion on a proposals likelihood of success in context of standing inquiry group recommendations, and merely advise on it being procedurally within the realms of "substantially different/special reasons" for consideration.
I can't wait for your reaction when the deal clears, and your face is this😞. You have a small chance of being right. Keep on hoping to the end i say! You might get your miracle.
 

Elios83

Member
They didn't kill anything. MS is still expected to get ABK. I mean if that makes the CMA ego feel better then by all means cool. pass the deal. Deal has a high chance of approving. FTC had better chances of the scoring the PI then the CMA blocking again. CMA the only outlier.
They killed the 2022 deal as it was.
It's a new proposal.

The rest you can say whatever you want, no one knows what's going to happen with certainty.
 

PaintTinJr

Member
I can't wait for your reaction when the deal clears, and your face is this😞. You have a small chance of being right. Keep on hoping to the end i say! You might get your miracle.
I'm in the same position I was before the phase 2 preliminary decision came out, where everyone said it was passing, and I pointed to a Sky news piece about ofcom contacting the CMA about competition issues in all of Cloud, and then said I believed the CMA would still block.

I'm not saying it is 50:50 based on heart, I'm being pragmatic. The inquiry group shouldn't be satisfied - from the pragmatic standpoint - but I can't rule out influence or desire for a cheap and easy - approved - "we won !! we got it to look like we sort of stopped them."
 

Ginzeen

Banned
The only one pretending to know how things will go is you.
I'm open to all possible scenarios.
I just think the deal has a high chance of closing like most people. Their is still a chance of it not clearing. I been saying this. Im just confident the deal will close. Nothing more. Nothing less.
 
I can't wait for your reaction when the deal clears, and your face is this😞. You have a small chance of being right. Keep on hoping to the end i say! You might get your miracle.
Christ man, we’re trying to have a calm discussion here… but you seem to be really emotionally invested.

“The deal will be cleared ” was parroted by everyone and the CMA came in and blocked it, and no one saw it coming.

There’s nothing stopping that from happening again, it entirety depends on the CMA’s discretion.
 

Ginzeen

Banned
Christ man, we’re trying to have a calm discussion here… but you seem to be really emotionally invested.

“The deal will be cleared ” was parroted by everyone and the CMA came in and blocked it, and no one saw it coming.

There’s nothing stopping that from happening again, it entirety depends on the CMA’s discretion.
this is a calm discussion. Again, the deal has a high chance of closing. Their is still a small chance of failure. I said this, the whole time.....i don't have a crystal ball.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
I can't wait for your reaction when the deal clears, and your face is this😞. You have a small chance of being right. Keep on hoping to the end i say! You might get your miracle.

Good grief. Will you stop with this childish "can't wait to see your face" rhetoric? There is nothing wrong with people having a sober, realistic understanding that we don't know what is going to happen next. This things has turned left when a number of times already when the expectation was that it was a done deal.
 
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DarkBatman

SBI’s Employee of the Year
this is a calm discussion. Again, the deal has a high chance of closing. Their is still a small chance of failure. I said this, the whole time.....i don't have a crystal ball.
And how exactly do you come to the conclusion that there is a big high chance of closng?
Because several MS mouth pieces said so on Twitter/X?
 

Schmick

Member
this is a calm discussion. Again, the deal has a high chance of closing. Their is still a small chance of failure. I said this, the whole time.....I don't have a crystal ball.
You gonna have to explain why you think why there is a high chance... because in the past the first deal was said to have a high chance of passing but then it was blocked.
 

Elios83

Member
I just think the deal has a high chance of closing like most people. Their is still a chance of it not clearing. I been saying this. Im just confident the deal will close. Nothing more. Nothing less.

In one post you're saying "keep hoping for the miracle block" showing disrespect for every possibility other than a clear, in the next one you acknowledge the chance of it not clearing.
You also deny that CMA has killed the original deal proposal.

I have the impression you're way more invested in this than you should :pie_thinking::pie_gsquint:

Personally as I said I'm open for all scenarios, we'll find out what happens.
 

Ginzeen

Banned
In one post you're saying "keep hoping for the miracle block" showing disrespect for every possibility other than a clear, in the next one you acknowledge the chance of it not clearing.
You also deny that CMA has killed the original deal proposal.

I have the impression you're way more invested in this than you should :pie_thinking::pie_gsquint:

Personally as I said I'm open for all scenarios, we'll find out what happens.
The same people are constantly in this thread(you included). You can argue the same people that keep popping in here all the time are heavily invested into this. So it doesn't matter lol. Its not disrespect for saying something is a miracle if it has a low chance of succeeding.
 

Elios83

Member
The same people are constantly in this thread(you included). You can argue the same people that keep popping in here all the time are heavily invested into this. So it doesn't matter lol. Its not disrespect for saying something is a miracle if it has a low chance of succeeding.
Who has calculated these chances and has established they're a fact?
You?

Again you're just too invested in your position and it's obvious that just reading the possibility that things won't go the way you want being discussed triggers you. That's your problem.

And again no, I said that I'm open to all possibilities, I'm not the one claiming it will take a miracle for this or that to happen.
 
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Ginzeen

Banned
Who has calculated these chances and has established they're a fact?
You?

Again you're just too invested in your position and it's obvious that just reading the possibility that things won't go the way you want being discussed triggers you. That's your problem.

And again no, I said that I'm open to all possibilities, I'm not the one claiming it will take a miracle for this or that to happen.
No. The market. The analysts. The circumstantial evidence.

You're too invested as well. You're in this thread all the time. No i have said the deal can fail. Its not 100 percent certain. It doesn't trigger me.

Okay cool. I think the odds are low of failing so i says its miracle. Same thing i said during the FTC trial, when they were trying to get an injunction.
 
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Bernoulli

M2 slut
Big Brother Canada Popcorn GIF by Global TV
 
Yeah, and it sucks too because Xbox 360 humbled PlayStation and taught Sony a lesson about their own arrogance in trying to push a $600 into the market just because they could. Think that was the point @HeisenbergFX4 was making. But now there is no keeping in check Phil Spencer getting the green light from the powers that be at MS to utilize that fat bank account and transform the console and PC market into an MS wholly owned entity.

Oh....except for regulators who some of us have been hoping will get in Microsoft's way and prevent an oncoming disaster. If I needed vindication for opposing Microsoft's acquisition ambitions (which I don't) then I can simply point to a single email from Phil Spencer who envisions buying Nintendo and chunking their Switch hardware aside, all for Spencer's personal glory.

How did he put it? It would be a "career moment".

Gilbert Gottfried What An Asshole GIF
The 360 was my personal favorite of the 7th gen (at least at the time) but now it is apparent to me that Ms lacks the ability to create and so they just want to use their riches to buy up all competition, and probably ruin every ip they buy in the process.
 
D

Deleted member 848825

Unconfirmed Member
this is a calm discussion. Again, the deal has a high chance of closing. Their is still a small chance of failure. I said this, the whole time.....i don't have a crystal ball.
If you sincerely want a calm/rational discussion, then saying antagonistic things like: "I can't wait for your reaction when the deal clears, and your face is this😞" Would suggest the opposite and instead that you're trolling.
 

f0b.jpg


Pack it up, boys. Gaming is finished. Well, console gaming is anyways. I play more games on mobile these days anyways so I'm good. Most of GAF don't have phones tho, so some of you guys are fucked.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut

f0b.jpg


Pack it up, boys. Gaming is finished. Well, console gaming is anyways. I play more games on mobile these days anyways so I'm good. Most of GAF don't have phones tho, so some of you guys are fucked.
200.gif
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Imo it's getting approved
But it's strange if the CMA accepts the Ubisoft cloud agreement. In the core it doesn't adress any concerns for the CMA and COD isn't divested
When you see from the leaks the plan is clear to use the Cloud for everything, and after the deal make everything exclusive.
But even with all that proof the FTC and CMA couldn't do anything
Yeah, that's where I am it.

This proposal does not meet the criterion set by the CMA in their previous Phase 2 findings. They asked for the divestment of COD and Activision, which would have been permanent. This new deal will temporarily divest cloud gaming rights to Ubisoft and then Microsoft regains 100% control after 15 years.

Having said that, it seems like this deal will be approved now.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut



While the CMA has identified limited residual concerns with the new deal, Microsoft has put forward remedies which the CMA has provisionally concluded should address these issues.

The CMA is now consulting on the remedies before making a final decision
 
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Godot25

Banned
Well. It was a good run boys. Now it's over.

Since even Sony signed the deal I doubt that there will be much a of push against deal from third parties.
 

Banjo64

cumsessed



While the CMA has identified limited residual concerns with the new deal, Microsoft has put forward remedies which the CMA has provisionally concluded should address these issues.

The CMA is now consulting on the remedies before making a final decision

No mention of the 15 year term until the footnotes.

Pathetic to see a supposed independent body so blatantly pressurised.
 
I’ll believe it when I see it! That being said, it would a truly remarkable action from this point for the CMA to block the deal. In the face of all the regulatory approval worldwide, them coming back to the table and agreeing to put CAT on hold with MS they really would look like the most obstructive body in the world to block it now, especially given the concessions made to appease their concerns.
 

Bernoulli

M2 slut
No mention of the 15 year term until the footnotes.

Pathetic to see a supposed independent body so blatantly pressurised.
It's clear
Sarah Cardell, CEO of the CMA, said:
“The CMA’s position has been consistent throughout – this merger could only go ahead if competition, innovation, and choice in cloud gaming was preserved. In response to our original prohibition, Microsoft has now substantially restructured the deal, taking the necessary steps to address our original concerns.

“It would have been far better, though, if Microsoft had put forward this restructure during our original investigation. This case illustrates the costs, uncertainty and delay that parties can incur if a credible and effective remedy option exists but is not put on the table at the right time.”













the CMA has limited residual concerns that certain provisions in the sale of Activision’s cloud streaming rights to Ubisoft could be circumvented, terminated, or not enforced.

To address these concerns, Microsoft has offered remedies to ensure that the terms of the sale of Activision’s rights to Ubisoft are enforceable by the CMA. The CMA has provisionally concluded that this additional protection should resolve those residual concerns.
 
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