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Microsoft / Activision Deal Approval Watch |OT| (MS/ABK close)

Do you believe the deal will be approved?


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I've been of the opinion it should go through with behavioral remedies, maybe at one point I didn't believe it should have any concessions, but I also believed Microsoft were being honest when they said they would continue to release CoD on Playstation.

If Sony were to acquire or try to acquire Take Two, I'd hope for the same scrutiny this deal is getting. My assumption would be that GTA gets the same treatment Call of Duty gets, but other games would be free reign. A new Red Dead could possibly be exclusive. Sports games are weird.. wouldn't care but I could see the Sports games getting scrutiny.

I do remember the Chile Call of Duty gamer survey having GTA be of higher importance than CoD itself. Sony might run into more regulatory hurdles with GTA than Microsoft is with CoD. Especially from the clear market leader position.

I wouldn't be against Sony acquiring Take Two as long as they went through the same regulatory hurdles.

So you're okay with industry consolidation, and a shrinking 3P publisher market that can function independently of ownership by a platform holder? Personally, I can't rock with that.

Regulators are in a tough spot here. If they give MS a slap on the wrist and pass the acquisition with gestural behavioral remedies, the floodgates are going to open. This isn't fearmongering; it's literally what is going to happen. Amazon, Apple, Google, Tencent, even other massive 3P publishers (imagine EA buying Devolver for example), even Sony...you're going to see the publisher space in this industry shrink in the blink of an eye. And VERY few of those acquisitions will be able to be turned down or enforced with structural remedies, because every single buyer will just point to the results of Microsoft buying ABK, and challenge the regulators.

If the regulators block their deals, they'll sue and win, and the consolidation will continue. Whether Microsoft likes it or not, they're serving as a critical example at a junction point for the industry. Other people have said this; I'm just adding onto these thoughts. How regulators handle this acquisition WILL set a standard one way or another and for the sake of the industry itself, let us hope it is a good one.

Which, for ME, means if they want to approve the deal? Fine, do so. But it should 100% involve structural remedies, even alongside behavioral ones. I don't care if Microsoft doesn't like that idea; this process isn't about making them happy. It's about doing what's right for the health of the market and its future. I said it before: divesting COD/Activision into an independent company that Microsoft can still retain partial ownership in, I think that's the fairest structural remedy you can offer them. Let Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo etc. buy publishing rights & marketing rights for COD to their own platforms (meaning, they also fund versions of those games for their platforms), let the divested company publish the game everywhere else. Put some sensible limitations on Day 1 subscription services inclusion for those games (regardless who it is, be it Microsoft, or Sony etc.) except in cases of people who outright bought the game in full (they should be able to cloud stream it as normal or access a cloud version with all the same features & purchasing options as the retail version).

That would literally solve practically all of the concerns when it comes to perpetual access to COD & Activision content for all platform holders & service providers. Let Microsoft keep Blizzard & King fully; they can do what they want with them. To me that's a fair structural remedy, and it still lets Microsoft keep the behavioral remedies they've already provided to Nintendo and Nvidia.

But Microsoft's defiance to in any way part with COD as part of a divestiture says a lot about their real intent of acquisition: they want 100% control of everything with ABK. And if they keep buying more publishers, they'll want the same.
 
Pretty much. I'd say EU and US are not going to make any serious moves to block this thing. I say that because Linda Khan seems more intent on using cases like this to establish case law rather than actually winning cases. And as (obvious Sony shill....lol) Chris Dring said, Microsoft probably did enough to sway the EU with their presentation.

Everything comes down to CMA.

If "woe is me" pie charts, grandstanding threats to opponents & regulators, and paper promises for content they don't legally yet own were enough to sway EC regulators, then they need to hire new members to regulate.

Why does pc players have to suffer over Sony and Microsoft fighting each other?

We are neutral, we consume steal everything.

Fixed it for you 😁👍
 
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They are, but they're also investing in cloud and PC which is the expansion portion. The whole sub model is based on growth. They're putting an app on Samsung TVs also.

No one wants to play COD on a TV through laggy-ass Comcast, dude. This "cloud future" is nowhere near as big as you or certain companies want to make it.

Total nonsense. Playstation doesn't get smaller by more gamers having more ways to access popular Activision Blizzard games like Call of Duty and Diablo. That's why that argument is so weak.

Sony has no claim to Call of Duty that outweighs the benefits of 150 million+ new gamers being able to play Call of Duty in more ways and across many more devices, including Playstation. This is why Sony is headed for a clear defeat on this deal. And considering how much public importance they've placed on blocking the deal, I hope they're ready for that massive tumble their stock is about to take once it does get approved. Elevating blocking this deal publicly has consequences also. By then, once Sony realizes their efforts have failed, it's my suspicion that's when they'll try to enter into some kind of agreement for Call of Duty with Microsoft, hoping to stave off the worst.

Oh, and Sony also doesn't want to see Xbox as a gaming business surpass Playstation in revenue, which would almost certainly happen if this deal is approved. It's the stupid stuff Sony fears. Sony fears a more competitive Xbox business. Sony wants a less competitive industry. That's what this is all about.

Sony's stock lost $20 billion simply on the announcement of the deal. They never really made that back.

If their stock were to drop $40 billion over the deal's approval with Nick Jr-tier concessions, that's almost half their market cap wiped. Meaning, the market will have proven Sony's claims correct, they'd probably never really make the $40 billion wiped off back, and they could sue the regulators for directly making a decision that harmed them as a competitor in the market in a way that everyone understands: $s.
 
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Varteras

Member
Pretty much. I'd say EU and US are not going to make any serious moves to block this thing. I say that because Linda Khan seems more intent on using cases like this to establish case law rather than actually winning cases. And as (obvious Sony shill....lol) Chris Dring said, Microsoft probably did enough to sway the EU with their presentation.

Everything comes down to CMA.

Yeah I don't honestly see the EC doing much against this. They seemed to be, at least publicly, the most willing to impose behavioral remedies. I think they'll demand a minimum 10-year remedy where Microsoft must put CoD on all available platforms, but after that can do what they want.

The CMA is absolutely the biggest issue for the deal. If Microsoft isn't bluffing about walking away if they don't get CoD, and the CMA moves forward with structural remedies like they made it sound is the most likely scenario, then we'll know in a matter of weeks if this deal is dead.

The FTC will be the last line, and I don't think it's going to successfully block the whole deal if it's not already dead. I think if it gets to a higher court the judge will allow the deal but the question is will the judge also say structural remedies are needed?
 

Banjo64

cumsessed


They were about to use a shotgun in their foot, but they used a gun instead


How’s that true when there’s hundreds of sixth and seventh generation titles on Xbox like Red Dead Redemption, Marrowind and The Witcher 2 that aren’t available on PS?

Not to mention Rare Replay alone is 30 titles that aren’t available for sale on any other platform.

MS seems to have a big issue with either;
A. Basic maths.
B. The truth.
 
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They were about to use a shotgun in their foot, but they used a gun instead


"We have almost $2 trillion in market valuation, make almost as much money in net profits annually as is the worth of our chief competitor in console gaming, haven't stabilized our console business to be self-sufficient in making a profit for over twenty years, passed on multiple offers for exclusive content last generation, shot ourselves in the foot multiple times with idiotic business decisions, and just finished acquiring another massive gaming publisher eight months before announcing we were buying ABK..."

"But let us compete."


Every day I'm losing more and more patience with MS's methods to get this thing approved.
 

DrFigs

Member
No one wants to play COD on a TV through laggy-ass Comcast, dude. This "cloud future" is nowhere near as big as you or certain companies want to make it.



Sony's stock lost $20 billion simply on the announcement of the deal. They never really made that back.

If their stock were to drop $40 billion over the deal's approval with Nick Jr-tier concessions, that's almost half their market cap wiped. Meaning, the market will have proven Sony's claims correct, they'd probably never really make the $40 billion wiped off back, and they could sue the regulators for directly making a decision that harmed them as a competitor in the market in a way that everyone understands: $s.
This is a good point too. We really do have evidence that this deal directly hurts Sony in a major way. So it is weird people are speculating about it's effects and whether Sony will be fine without COD.
 
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The_Mike

I cry about SonyGaf from my chair in Redmond, WA
I'm not specifically saying you. But, piracy is a much bigger problem on PC than on console.

Tons of notorious pirating communities on PC.
Buying second hand copies is as bad as piracy from a developers perspective , because the developers don't get any money from them.

Edit - what a joke people laugh at it. It's true.
 
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The_Mike

I cry about SonyGaf from my chair in Redmond, WA
No food buff. No phial. No weapon rune. You running +5 or something bro? :messenger_grinning_smiling: j/k
Between 5 and 7 :(

I am 390 with a rating of 1132 :( I am heavily outgeared but I keep getting canned at higher keys and I just want that fucking chest.
 

RGB'D

Member
The CMA process requires them to hear all remedies but their documentation makes it clear they prefer divestment and recent history of their decisions confirms that.

I haven’t seen an example where they approved a behavioral remedy for anything that reached Phase 2.

So CMA patiently wait for MS to deliver their behavior remedies suggestions, say “thank you, but that simply won’t do. We rather like divestment you see … Was there anything else? No? Good day”.

And then MS get angry and go to arbitration with …. Nothing. Because the CMA completed its investigation, listened to the offered remedies and concluded they were insufficient.

The only way MS avoids straight divestment is an IP remedy - basically the same net effect as divestment.
Cool story. I only stated that they were open to behavioral remedies as they were per their report. But thanks for sharing your theory I guess...
 

Varteras

Member
Between 5 and 7 :(

I am 390 with a rating of 1132 :( I am heavily outgeared but I keep getting canned at higher keys and I just want that fucking chest.

:messenger_pensive: It can be rough man. You not in a guild? I only run with guildies. Just 16 rating away from 2,000 for that damn mount. I hate the affixes. Most just need to go away
 

IFireflyl

Gold Member
Buying second hand copies is as bad as piracy, because the developers don't get any money from them.

Edit - what a joke people laugh at it. It's true.

If you pirate, you're stealing from the developers.

If you sell your copy to someone else, then that still results in only one person owning the copy of the game.

These two things are not the same. You're better than this.
 

POKEYCLYDE

Member
How’s that true when there’s hundreds of sixth and seventh generation titles on Xbox like Red Dead Redemption, Marrowind and The Witcher 2 that aren’t available on PS?

Not to mention Rare Replay alone is 30 titles that aren’t available for sale on any other platform.

MS seems to have a big issue with either;
A. Basic maths.
B. The truth.
I'm sure they're using a different metric to reach those numbers. Like, only on Xbox and only on Playstation. Since Xbox makes their games day and date on PC or have ported a bunch of their titles to PC, that gap is probably bigger.

Rare replay titles started out on different consoles. For their purpose, they would probably also count Rare Replay as a single title if they counted it at all.

The graphic they used didn't specify generation, so RDR is available on PS3, but also Microsoft probably went all the way back to the Playstation 1 and grabbed obscure titles only on that system to make this graphic.

It's a dirty tactic, but it's probably not a "lie".
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
Buying second hand copies is as bad as piracy, because the developers don't get any money from them.

Edit - what a joke people laugh at it. It's true.

2nd hand is not the same as piracy, 2nd hand means at least 1 transaction was made, any subsequent transactions for the same copy beyond that don't benefit the publisher any way, that just benefits the retailer like Gamestop.

Piracy is straight up theft.

They're not the same at all my dude.
 
2nd hand is not the same as piracy, 2nd hand means at least 1 transaction was made, any subsequent transactions for the same copy beyond that don't benefit the publisher any way, that just benefits the retailer like Gamestop.

Piracy is straight up theft.

They're not the same at all my dude.
Not the same but the devs look at used game sales as a new sale lost. That's why the push to digital, day 1 patches, and collector's editions without the game included are all standard practices now. They don't want the purchaser to recoup any of their money spent nor do they want used games to exist.

If you think that physical games are going to continue for much longer, I'm sorry to say you are misinformed. It happened and has proven effective in the PC market, it will happen with the console market.
 

The_Mike

I cry about SonyGaf from my chair in Redmond, WA
2nd hand is not the same as piracy, 2nd hand means at least 1 transaction was made, any subsequent transactions for the same copy beyond that don't benefit the publisher any way, that just benefits the retailer like Gamestop.

Piracy is straight up theft.

They're not the same at all my dude.
From a developers perspective they are.

Of course I know one thing is legal and the other is not, but both hurt the developers equally , which I thought we were taking about.
 
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01011001

Banned
2nd hand is not the same as piracy, 2nd hand means at least 1 transaction was made, any subsequent transactions for the same copy beyond that don't benefit the publisher any way, that just benefits the retailer like Gamestop.

Piracy is straight up theft.

They're not the same at all my dude.

legally it's very cut and dry.
morally not so much.

that becomes more and more true the older the game gets imo.
because at some point you get to the position where a publisher refuses to sell the game, and people sell copies of it for ridiculously high prices on Ebay.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
legally it's very cut and dry.
morally not so much.

that becomes more and more true the older the game gets imo.
because at some point you get to the position where a publisher refuses to sell the game, and people sell copies of it for ridiculously high prices on Ebay.

There have been some cases where publishers have straight up put their own old games on torrents, if it's a case like that I don't think anyone would have any issue whatsoever.
 

The_Mike

I cry about SonyGaf from my chair in Redmond, WA
I've never played wow for longer then a few hours. Never been into those kind of mmorpgs

Ultima Online (on rpg freeshards) was the best one i've played followed by eve online probably.
I guess it's what type of game that clicks with you at first.

Never played UO. Tried a free shard server but games like that is not made with user friendliness in mind so it's chaotic to play when you are used to more modern games.

I can't play anything non tab target, I hate it. But I hear modern mmo players hating tab targeting cus they grew up with these action games mmorpgs.
 

Warablo

Member
At this point we gotta ask why a software company cant produce more software than a hardware company.
Because they only started to acquire game studios a few years ago. Most of them already just released or was just about to release a game. Not to mention Sony gets a lot of free exclusives just by being Japanese while Xbox is irrelevant over there.

Microsoft has never been big on game development unless it's a big online hit like Halo or Gears.
 
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Topher

Identifies as young
Buying second hand copies is as bad as piracy from a developers perspective , because the developers don't get any money from them.

Edit - what a joke people laugh at it. It's true.

Folks are laughing because equating piracy and buying second hand is a ridiculous comparison from any perspective.

From a developers perspective they are.

Of course I know one thing is legal and the other is not, but both hurt the developers equally , which I thought we were taking about.

False. A physical game is purchased and the dev gets paid. A pirated game wasn't and the dev gets nothing.
 
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