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[Men_in_Boxes]

PlayStation likely still have the following six Live Service titles in production after Bend and BluePoints Live Service closures. How many of these do you think are going to succeed? (Disclaimer: This will be used to assess the general intuition of NeoGAF)

Guerilla - Horizon Online

Bungie - Marathon

Haven - Fairgames

PlayStation Studio - Gummy Bears

PlayStation Studio - Jason Blundell AAA shooter

Media Molecule - Hiring for Live Service experience

 

[Ass of Can Whooping]

 

[//DEVIL//]

I hope they all fail.

 

[LectureMaster]

 

[Jaybe]

I think only Gummy Bears has a chance

 

[Sebastian1295]

The only one from that list i'd say will hit is marathon. People can say whatever they want to about bungie but they have a large following and they have some of the best gunplay in the industry. Marathon is going to hit and hit hard with big success in my opinion if it launches with no issues.

 

[Banjo64]

Marathon is the only one with a hope in hell. Horizon and Fairgame$? Come on OP. Have mercy.

 

[Rentahamster]

How many of these do you think are going to succeed?

Define success.

Personally, I don't think any of them will be as profitable as Sony execs think they will be.

 

[Imtjnotu]

 

[Sebastian1295]

Btw i'm glad jim ryan was fired. He wanted all these live service games and effectively fucked 1st party studios this entire generation. I'm glad he was held accountable and they're shifting philosophies. It takes balls to cut ur losses and eat it instead of pushing forward into the abyss.

 

[Bombolone]

Sony has always struggled with Multiplayer compared to other players in the market. I’m not saying I didn’t enjoy KZ2 or SOCOM.
I’m saying that kind of success isn’t what they will be satisfied in 2025.
I’m don’t want them to not be successful, they (Sony) just seem cursed.

 

[simpatico]

2 might make it, zero have a chance at success.

I wonder how many hundred people will clock in Monday morning to work on that Horizon game. Gotta wonder about that investment strategy.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Define success.

Personally, I don't think any of them will be as profitable as Sony execs think they will be.

Really good question and definitely one that will never be agreed upon here.

In my opinion, I think we can get a rough idea based on DAU and how much support the title gets a year or two after launch.

 

[Little Mac]

How does Sony expect players to play so many of these live service games? Player’s time is a limited resource and Sony seems to be competing with itself for it. They all could be absolute bangers but only 1 or 2 are going to succeed because there are only so many hours in the day.

 

[PatientGamer]

Honest answer? Zero.

If they did a survey of their 100+ million player user base, I'm almost certain the cast majority of players will tell them NOT to enter the GaaS market.

Unless they put the wokeness down and go full Marvel Rivals esque.

 

[Mattdaddy]

I think Horizon, Fairgames, Gummy Bears, and MM are probably toast.

Marathon... ehh I dunno I guess its got a chance.

I dont know jack shit about the other shooter, but its a AAA shooter with CoD pedigree so I guess its got a punchers chance?

But out of those 2, I dont think both make it its one or the other.

So I'll take 1 outta 6, Alex.

 

[cormack12]

I think Horizon will be a hit personally and I think Fairgame$ has a shot of being a surprise hit, largely depending on how they mix the pve to pvp element.

I think marathon will be dead within the year.

 

[The Cockatrice]

The first 3 in the OP will be released and only Marathon will be successful because Destiny fans are thirsty af.

 

[Ar¢tos]

No MAG or Socom, so not interested in any.

 

[R6Rider]

LMAO I knew the OP before even looking.

 

[Rentahamster]

Really good question and definitely one that will never be agreed upon here.

In my opinion, I think we can get a rough idea based on DAU and how much support the title gets a year or two after launch.

The main reason why execs gamba on live service games is because even if they make a bunch of flops, if at least one of them turns into a Fortnite/LoL/Overwatch/Minecraft level of success, it'll make it all worth it. I don't think any of Sony's games will reach that level of success, and at best only one or two of those will be barely limping along with just enough DAU to keep it afloat.

 

[rm082e]

From that list, I would expect none of them to blow up big. Marathon might be the most reliable expectation among them, but it doesn't seem like it's going to be the next Fortnite or Apex.

I am expecting FairGame$ to be the next Foamstars or XDefiant.

I don't know what to think about a Horizon GaaS. Horizon has sold way more copies than I expected (I think it's boring), so just based on numbers it seems like there will be some sales there.

 

[Fbh]

I could see Marathon doing well. Bungie games often feel nice to play, the visual style is appealing and it's being made in a popular upcoming genre.
I doubt it will be a Fortnite level success but I could see it doing like The Finals or a bit better.

Everything else looks like crap and will probably fail.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

James Sawyer Ford

 

[Xtib81]

2 at best.

 

[Kronark]

I was going to vote 2, then I scrolled down and looked at the 6 titles.... Yikes.

I think it's a 50/50 gamble for even one of those to do well.

 

[Lokaum D+]

I ll do my part to be near 0 as possivle

 

[yogaflame]

If you count helldiver as a live service, then just one. Sony is just lucky that HD has that starship trooper vibe and none woke. I believe that Ps6 will be back to its roots, and that is single player exclusives after the painful lesson they learned. Hopefully ps6 will be more like ps1, ps2 and ps3.

 

[S0ULZB0URNE]

4-6

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I don't know what to think about a Horizon GaaS. Horizon has sold way more copies than I expected (I think it's boring), so just based on numbers it seems like there will be some sales there.

It's weird to read comments like this.

The Horizon games are pretty mid (imo) but it's mostly because of the writing and gameplay loop.

I assume (never really played an MMO) that Horizon Online won't feature story nearly as much and the gameplay loop will be completely redesigned. Running around a beautiful open world with friends, taking down robot dinosaurs? That feels like a safe bet to me.

 

[Generic]

What if the Media Molecule game is a new Little Big Planet?

 

[Tams]

Marathon seems to be the only one with a chance, but from what we've seen even it still looks like some indie avante garde game or the result of an energy drink fueled game jamboree.

 

[rm082e]

It's weird to read comments like this.

The Horizon games are pretty mid (imo) but it's mostly because of the writing and gameplay loop.

I assume (never really played an MMO) that Horizon Online won't feature story nearly as much and the gameplay loop will be completely redesigned. Running around a beautiful open world with friends, taking down robot dinosaurs? That feels like a safe bet to me.

I don't play MMOs, so maybe I'm the out-of-touch old man here, but my impression is making a new MMO like WOW or even TES would have no hope of success.

 

[reinking]

Just because they cancelled a few does not rule out that they add more...

Spoiler

 

[Sanepar]

Jason Blundell game and Marathon are safe Imo.

 

[flying_sq]

0 or 1, I think Marathon has a chance to stick around. If it ever comes out.

 

[CLW]

 

[Guilty_AI]

Marathon will likely stay if only because Bungie will do everything in their power to make it stick. However i think even its success will be somewhat questionable.

 

[mdkirby]

My bet, given the various studio acquisitions, and development cost, the whole endeavour including those already released, cancelled, or the 6 above will be a net financial loss. So we’ll be left with helldivers 2, which is great, and maybe one more ok game. And will have had a graveyard of dead games, and single player games that were never made, with a woeful showing for the generation. It sucks

 

[Represent.]

All of them will fail miserably, including Marathon.

My hot take actually is Marathon is the biggest flop of the year.

 

[TrebleShot]

Yeah their biggest live service games are already out. They are so heads up their own arsed about getting the next live service hit like fortnite is honestly pathetic.

Helldivers 2
Gran Turismo 7

Stick to what you've been good at for decades it's worked for Nintendo.

 

[Moriarty1889]

Hope they all crash and burn. Sony needs to learn the hard way that GAAS is not their speciality……Single Player games are.

 

[SJRB]

This is going to be a bloodbath for Sony to such an extent that it will get people in very high positions fired for the financial burden and the outright shame of failure it brought on the company.

 

[tTHANOSs]

Im waiting for the astro bot gaas game.

 

[SaturnSaturn]

The only one that stands a chance is the Jason Blundell project, i have no faith what so ever in any of the other projects, the horizon mmo flop as hard as concord, farigame$ will flop even harder. and hulst will still be in job as a clown that has his ps5 upside down

 

[Aenima]

Marathon is the only one that has a chance.

 

[simpatico]

My oldest daughter, who is now a young adult would probably consider Horizon her all-time favorite gaming franchise. If not for this really fucking local data point, I would assume the lion's share of their sales were just PS5 owners buying the big first party graphical showcase game they're supposed to buy. I think titles like that have always had a good sales bump regardless of quality. I do wonder how many of the really outspoken older Horizon fans would be as rabid if it were a third party game from Warner Bros or something. I've only played Zero Dawn so far and it was actually a lot better than I expected, but if I was a PS5 primary gamer I would not want that franchise to be the "crown jewel" of the first party titles like Herm obviously wants it to be. I actually wonder if Factions cancelation had anything to do with Herm feeling a little threatened. Of all the Sony GaaS that was the only one that sounded really fucking plausible and it got canceled first. Not what I'd want from Naughty Dog, but I could still see it finding an audience.

All the titles in the OP easily eclipse 1,000 developers. Imagine the daily salary Sony will spend on this coming Monday alone. I think AAA gaming is in a mega crisis that we've barely felt yet.

 

[Gamerfan81]

I would say the gummy bears one, it has a cool cat.

 

[SJRB]

Marathon is the only one that has a chance.

This game was revealed almost two years ago, there have been closed betas but we still haven't seen a single shred of actual gameplay.

If any this game is in deep shit.

 

[Radical_3d]

Who else but Men in Boxes?