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[Men_in_Boxes]

It's time.

Last week, Hiroki Totoki proclaimed that PlayStation is set to release 6 Live Service games by March 2025. There's been a lot of talk on NeoGAF about this Live Service strategy so I thought it would be interesting to create an Eat Crow mechanism. I've set a reminder for March 1st, 2025 in my phone. This thread will be bumped on said date so a percentage of GAFers can...

Question: How many of the six do you think will prove successful?

Important: Answers are public. You can not change your vote. Take your time and choose wisely.

 

[Del_X]

If you mean “breakaway success” then maybe 1.

If “profitable enough to keep the studio open” then maybe 2-3.

 

[SlimeGooGoo]

.

 

[Labadal]

SlimeGooGoo is one of the most pessimistic posters around. But when he's right, he's right.

None.

 

[bender]

Zero is the safe bet.

 

[LectureMaster]

 

[lh032]

optimistic: probably 1
Realistic: probably 1 but will die very fast.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

Looking at the poll results thus far...

 

[ArtHands]

Picked 5 to 6. Anything less than that is a huge failure on Sony

 

[vivftp]

I've posted elsewhere that I think there's a misreading of Sonys statement. They're currently committing to 6 live service releases by the end of FY25, and they're "working on it" regarding the other 6. So some of those other 6 games could also land within that window, they just can't commit to it at this point in time. That's 2.5 years from now, and a lot can happen with development in that time.

To the OP, what is "success"? That's a pretty wide metric. A game doesn't need to be the next Fortnite to be successful. Would success be achieved if the game finds an audience, recoups dev costs and earns a healthy profit? If that is what we're considering "success" then out of the 6 they're committing to I would say 5.

 

[Cert.in.Death]

0 for

 

[reinking]

Define success? Sea of Thieves success? Or Fortnite success?

Sea of Thieves, I could see 2-4. Fortnite, I see zero.

 

[TheDreadLord]

As any typical Sony game, all 6 games will pretty much die after 1 month of release

 

[Gojiira]

Horizon that plays like Monster Hunter with Armour and Weapon crafting was the original pitch and sounds amazing so I have faith there.
Marathon,up in the air.
1/2 I think is reasonable, I defo think HO will be the success if any.
Helldivers 2 as well looks awesome so we’ll see if that is a hood start or not.

 

[kikii]

voted 0

 

[rhodesianshepard]

Helldivers 2 has a shot. The first game was surprisingly deep from a combat and strategy perspective. I think this game will surprise people when it comes out

 

[DeepSpace5D]

I couldn’t make an educated guess unless I knew what all 6 titles were.

 

[Paulistano]

Didn't buy a console to play this crap.

Hope they fail spectacularly.

 

[vivftp]

I couldn’t make an educated guess unless I knew what all 6 titles were.

Likely candidates are any of the following:

Helldivers 2
Marathon
Horizon Online
London Studios new game
Concord
Fairgame$
Twisted Metal


Any of the others very well could still land within that window, in which case we might not know which 6 Totoki was referring to.

 

[Topher]

 

[DForce]

Maybe 5.
Last of Us Online may be the most successful one because it already has a following.

 

[DeepSpace5D]

Likely candidates are any of the following:

Helldivers 2
Marathon
Horizon Online
London Studios new game
Concord
Fairgame$
Twisted Metal


Any of the others very well could still land within that window, in which case we might not know which 6 Totoki was referring to.

Out of that list, I’ll guess 4 will be successful.

But I’m not even sure what that means exactly. Does it need to have legs for a certain amount of time, or reach a certain concurrent player count to be successful? Or does it simply need to turn a profit?

Anyway, I’ll guess at least 4 become popular.

 

[outsida]

All of them of course. Sony don't miss.

 

[GigaBowser]

crud

 

[Robb]

Define success. If you just mean they’ll make some money, most of them probably will.

If you mean how many will end up being Fortnite/Candy Crush/Minecraft successes my bet is zero.

I’ve interpreted it as the latter.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

To the OP, what is "success"? That's a pretty wide metric. A game doesn't need to be the next Fortnite to be successful. Would success be achieved if the game finds an audience, recoups dev costs and earns a healthy profit? If that is what we're considering "success" then out of the 6 they're committing to I would say 5.

It'll be a mixture of Steamcharts and TrueTrophies.com after ~3 months post launch. That's when most multiplayer games settle in and find their groove in terms of player base.

For example, when Helldivers 2 comes out and has a bigger audience than Deep Rock Galactic, it'll be hard to argue it's not a success.

 

[Sushi_Combo]

I have no interest in more gaas in the saturated market right now. BUT anything is possible and I will happily eat a crow if it comes to that.

 

[Lionel Richie]

Bout 3 fiddy.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

Anybody claiming the market for GaaS games is saturated is fundamentally ignorant of how these games work.

By their very definition, unlike traditional games that need to canvass the broadest possible audience with with widest possible appeal, Live Service games are a business model that make what is essentially the "cult classic" a profitable and very viable model.

Live Service games merely need to build a relatively small but devoted following, but one that is willing to continually spend. Do that and with only a couple of million monthly active users, you will make considerable bank.

Do that very well, and behold you now have one of the most profitable gaming properties in the industry. Everybody only looks at the biggest games, e.g. the Fortnites and GTA Onlines, and thinks "there's not enough room in the market for anymore of them", but whilst that may or may not be true, there's plenty room for smaller GaaS successes like Warframe, Destiny 2 (until recently), Payday, etc etc etc

I personally think Helldivers 2 could slap hard. And I do have faith in Marathon and Concord. With only three of these becoming reasonably successful, that would be enough to finance virtually all of Sony's AAA SP games from their other studios.

I think what Sony needs to do, however, is go all in on their multiplatform approach with their Live Service games. They need to build games like Fortnite that also run on iPads and Android phones. If they can do that, they'll have their cash cow to milk and finance literally all of PS's future creative endeavors.

 

[vivftp]

It'll be a mixture of Steamcharts and TrueTrophies.com after ~3 months post launch. That's when most multiplayer games settle in and find their groove in terms of player base.

For example, when Helldivers 2 comes out and has a bigger audience than Deep Rock Galactic, it'll be hard to argue it's not a success.

Ahh. Well, that's not a metric I really monitor so I can't really lend an informed opinion. Just going by what I noted originally, I'll stick with 5 out of 6 finding "success"

 

[Varteras]

Yes.

 

[bitbydeath]

Voted 2-4.
TLOU is a given and I’m hoping Twisted Metal lives up.

 

[Neilg]

If one of them is hugely successful it'll make over a billion a year and will immediately put all the other attempts in the black. I think one of them will do that.
2-3 will be passable - they won't make a huge profit, but they'll have an audience for a minute and be supported for a couple years.
The rest will be cancelled before release unless the 3-4 above ones came out first, because Sony is too afraid of bad PR of their big gaas push having a couple flops out the gate. They are going to focus group the shit out of these.

 

[mrmustard]

Depends.

79,99?
PS+ day1?
Crossplay?
F2P?
Pc day1?
Sony's AAA >100m Dollar marketing?

 

[{insert code here}]

They will probably miss on all 6. Sony has no history of being a top tier multi-player dev house.

 

[Bonfires Down]

I only have faith in Marathon to sustain a large player base. A few others could find a niche where a small team can keep working on them.

 

[Icymanipulator]

I say at least 1 will do well for them.
It’s a tough market and they will have to compete with big boys like tencent and Hoyoverse, among others.

 

[skit_data]

I'd say 2 at most can become really succesful, maybe 2 more can "carry their own weight" but I also expect at least 2 to to crash and burn.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

I’m intrigued by Concord and hope we see more of that soon

 

[EDMIX]

Who knows, thats one of the hardest things to really guess tbh.

Shit, I thought APEX was going to flop, not do like 100 million, i thought the same thing with COD Mobile and that shit has like 500 million downloads lol

 

[Heisenberg007]

It's too early to say until we see those games in action.

Not the right time to create this thread I think.

 

[Kurotri]

Not a single one baybeh

 

[Johnny Concrete]

Half of them. Also: by March ‘25 probably 2 of them actually released, the other 4 delayed/cancelled.

 

[GHound]

Much like with Square Enix, it's a perception game isn't it?

If at this point the expectation is breaking even, x units sold, or smallish profits quarterly then probably about half will end up being successful.
If they expect anything to enter into the top 3 and push Big GAAS revenue numbers then they're all but guaranteed to be written off as major failures and shut down within a couple of years.

 

[vaibhavpisal]

Fortnite beating, half a dozen masterpieces coming soon.

PlayStation, the soon to become trillion $ company.

 

[Quezacolt]

Hopefully none. I wish publishers would stop trying to push so many GaaS down our throats.

 

[Vick]

Not the right time to create this thread I think.

Corporate mole Men_in_Boxes just can't help himself.

Wonder what made him hate this medium so damn much to create such desperation to see gaming either die immediately or die very soon, once expiration date comes for each and everyone of his "favorite games".

 

[Damigos]

I hope not even one will be successful. So they understand that this market is already extremely saturated and we only have so much to do daily chores.
Added to this, i personally hate live service games with all the gatcha microtransactions battle pass sh*t.
Too bad Sony cant see this, they will learn the hard way

 

[Negotiator101]

Sony are playing a dangerous game here with this GaaS games overload and the many hardware failures (VR2, Portal) lately.

This all reeks of panic stations at PS HQ realising that the previous model was unsustainable and pivoting drastically to this. With Ryan leaving and a huge shakeup at the top points to a company with no real sense of direction and that could be catastrophic in the long term.

 

[PeteBull]

Hopefully none and sony can leave that terribad genre to greedy fucks who make fortnite xD