Alright, this is my personal analysis if there are indeed 35 characters in the game. I'll try to organize it.
Currently Confirmed: 23 Characters (excluding Sheik and Zero Suit Samus)
Melee Characters that have a 99% chance of being in:
Luigi
Captain Falcon
Ganondorf
Melee Characters that are most likely in:
Ness - The way I see it, unless the Smash team wants to see unhappy Mother and SSBM fans, Ness will not be cut, especially since he is a Smash veteran from both games. Lucas having a similar moveset does raise some eyebrows, but I really don't see them axing this veteran.
Jigglypuff - The only reason that Jigglypuff could be out is because she is an old Pokemon that is not that popular anymore. But since she has been a Smash character since the beginning, it would be odd to see her out. And besides, she's the best candidate for the traditional "easy-to-unlock" character.
Falco - I doubt he will be cut. Falco is the second most popular Star Fox character, and even though he was a clone in Melee, he was still a welcomed fighter. Why cut a popular character that nobody really had a problem with?
Marth - The only reason he could possibly be cut is because he has blue-ish hair and clothing like Ike. But really, seeing as Marth is Fire Emblem in Japan and is starring in an upcoming remake, he is most likely back for Brawl.
Mewtwo - Hmm... personally, I don't see any reason for him to be cut. Mewtwo is a popular and well known legendary Pokemon that had his own moveset in Melee. Sure, he kind of sucked, but that could be fixed without replacing him.
Mr. Game & Watch - If you ask me, this guy should be in the 99% chance category, but some people are apparently doubtful. Why get rid of a unique character with an ingenious moveset?
Melee Characters that are most likely out:
Dr. Mario - Seeing as he was merely a costume change of an existing character, he is probably out.
Pichu - Since nobody really liked him in Melee, he is most likely cut, especially since Pikachu seems to have his goggles.
Roy - He is probably out since he was really only in Melee because his GBA game was on the horizon. Ike seems to be taking the place of the second Fire Emblem character.
Young Link - Cut, but will probably exist as a new character (see below).
Characters including shoe-in Melee Characters: 32
That leaves... three extra characters. But who could they be?
Wind Waker Link - Yes, the cel-shaded version of Young Link will probably be replacing the Young Link of Ocarina of Time. I'll be shocked if this guy isn't in Brawl.
A Mario Character - If Dr. Mario is indeed cut, then that would leave one less representative for the Mario series than Melee (I don't think Wario counts due to his separate icon). I dunno, but the Smash team might be a bit uncomfortable with that, so I really believe there will be another Mario character to fill that spot. Most likely Paper Mario or Bowser Jr.
35th Character - Wow, only one more can be added? Hmm... it's basically a toss-up between several wanted characters. Mii? Animal Crossing Villager? Ridley? Lucario? Krystal? King K. Rool? Black Shadow? Another third party character? So many options... this is why I think there should be over 35 characters.
So yeah, this is what I think the roster would look like. Of course, my ideas could always be tweaked to put in new characters (get rid of Ness, replace Mewtwo with Lucario, scrap my Mario idea, etc.)
