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[Physiognomonics]

Hardware
1.PS5 ~68k (-33% YoY)
2.X|S ~33k (-39% YoY)
3 NSW ~25k



Investors need to wake up.

PS5 is on track to sell 14 million in FY24

He is 100% right. Managers in charge always prefer to focus on short term profits. Because their bonuses will be based on those, not long term as they won't be working for Playstation in 5 years.

Following the same trajectory, in 15 years Playstation will become irrelevant, at the level of Sega / Microsoft now. There will be 2 main platforms (the way there are 3 now): Steam, Nintendo and all the others will fight for the crumbs.

 

[RPCGamer]

Think that's why Sony and MS are opening games up to PC.

 

[jm89]

Investors need to wake up.

PS5 is on track to sell 14 million in FY24

Investors or Sony?

Cause it would be Sony forecasting 18 million FY24 and doing nothing to achieve that.

Temp price cuts here and there isn't gonna get them to that forecast.

Maybe they are hoping ps5 pro does numbers? If so that is an odd gamble as pro is on the very expensive side especially with the state of the economy.

 

[RPCGamer]

The Uk is still the 2nd biggest market for Xbox though. Even if it's far behind the other 2. It's not popular...but it's also not selling one unit each time PS5 sells 20.

Many people I know have a familiar pattern. Loved the 360, moved to PS4 when the Xbox One was barren, then switched to PC as they didn't like what Sony had to offer. Their younger family members etc have all gone straight to PC...I'm guessing from following them.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Investors or Sony?

Cause it would be Sony forecasting 18 million FY24 and doing nothing to achieve that.

Temp price cuts here and there isn't gonna get them to that forecast.

Maybe they are hoping ps5 pro does numbers? If so that is an odd gamble as pro is on the very expensive side especially with the state of the economy.

So what are you going to say when they hit their forecast?

It'll be interesting to see their latest numbers which should also include any significant sales in China due to Wukong.

Discounting the PS5 Pro is going to be an interesting gamble on your end.

 

[jm89]

He is 100% right. Managers in charge always prefer to focus on short term profits. Because their bonuses will be based on those, not long term as they won't be working for Playstation in 5 years.

Following the same trajectory, in 15 years Playstation will become irrelevant, at the level of Sega / Microsoft now. There will be 2 main platforms (the way there are 3 now): Steam, Nintendo and all the others will fight for the crumbs.

Sony does seem to be focusing on short term gains at the expense of market share. The ps5 market share is gonna hurt some ps5 games sales potential aswell. If I was an investor and they missed their forecast again, I'd be asking wtf are you doing? Cause short term profit from hardware isn't where Sony is making its money.

 

[jm89]

So what are you going to say when they hit their forecast?

It'll be interesting to see their latest numbers which should also include any significant sales in China due to Wukong.

Discounting the PS5 Pro is going to be an interesting gamble on your end.

I never discounted it. Just saying it's a risky gamble.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

I’m guessing Sony are waiting to see how GTA6 shifts units before dropping the price.

GTA6 will likely end up being the best selling game on the console.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I never discounted it. Just saying it's a risky gamble.

So again, what happens if they hit their forecast?

Are you going to come in and say that they knew what they were doing and you didn't know what you were talking about?

 

[jm89]

So again, what happens if they hit their forecast?

Are you going to come in and say that they knew what they were doing and you didn't know what you were talking about?

Well sure if they hit it they got it right

But so far it's not looking good.

 

[hemo memo]

1	EA Sports FC 25 (EA)

Yearly sport again at 1. An awful, glitchfest one at that.

4	Star Wars Outlaws (Ubisoft)
5	Astro Bot (Sony)

Outlaws over Astro..

10	The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (Nintendo)*

UK never dissapoint at disappointing.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Well sure if they hit it they got it right

But so far it's not looking good.

I just don't think you can say that with confidence. At least I wouldn't.

But even more so, if you think it isn't looking good yet they hit it, that should suggest that you were entirely off base.

I think that's my biggest gripe with commentators who make claims like we're seeing here.

Oh the PS5 is on track for 14 million, Sony has no idea what they're doing, they're morons. It hits 18 million... crickets.

 

[hemo memo]

I’m guessing Sony are waiting to see how GTA6 shifts units before dropping the price.

GTA6 will likely end up being the best selling game on the console.

Wouldn't it make more sense for the average consumer who wants to buy a console just to play GTA 6 to buy the Series S since it's the cheapest console?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Wouldn't it make more sense for the average consumer who wants to buy a console just to play GTA 6 to buy the Series S since it's the cheapest console?

Think about what you're saying here.

There's a non zero chance that the Xbox version gets delayed because of the Series S. There's almost no chance this game plays well on Series S if it is pushing the PS5 and XSX beyond what we're seeing from games like Wukong or Silent Hill 2.

Pretty sure that's not how people want to play GTA6.

 

[Woopah]

There is no exclusive game slated for Xbox Series in 2025 that suggests being a needle mover.

GTA6 is the needle mover for consoles next year, especially if it launches with an online mode as you'll see people migrate from GTA5 Online.

You also have several sports games that might not release on previous generation next year.

The only move Microsoft has is to drop the price of the Xbox and hope that there isn't a Series S problem with GTA6 and hope people choose that as an option over PS5/PS5 Pro.

I don't think Sony will drop the price unless GTA6 starts shifting a higher percentage of Xbox units.

The Switch 2 depending on price is not going to have a huge first year.

It's very unlikely, but it is theoretically possible that Xbox has a hit, either a surprise breakout or a currently updated game.

I agree that sports and GTA will make more of a difference.

Switch 2 won't have massive first year, but I do expect it to contribute significantly to overall hardware growth.

He is 100% right. Managers in charge always prefer to focus on short term profits. Because their bonuses will be based on those, not long term as they won't be working for Playstation in 5 years.

Following the same trajectory, in 15 years Playstation will become irrelevant, at the level of Sega / Microsoft now. There will be 2 main platforms (the way there are 3 now): Steam, Nintendo and all the others will fight for the crumbs.

What is it about these numbers that make you think PS will be irrelevant? PS5 is still likely to sell over 90 million units.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

Wouldn't it make more sense for the average consumer who wants to buy a console just to play GTA 6 to buy the Series S since it's the cheapest console?

No, because while GTA6 might be the game that finally pushes people to go next-gen, they’ll also want to make sure there’s other great games to play. Those great games aren’t on Xbox.

They’re also more than twice as likely coming from PS4 than they are Xbox One.

Let it go

 

[Mibu no ookami]

It's very unlikely, but it is theoretically possible that Xbox has a hit, either a surprise breakout or a currently updated game.

I agree that sports and GTA will make more of a difference.

Switch 2 won't have massive first year, but I do expect it to contribute significantly to overall hardware growth.

Anything is possible in theory, but in practicality, no it is as unlikely as anything could be in this industry.

You would generally see a swell of hype around a game like that becoming an actual system seller for Xbox, something more and more difficult to accomplish as a smaller platform where people aren't apt to buy games rather just play them on gamepass.

Helldivers was a smash hit for Sony, but it wasn't really a system seller for PS5.

Space marine 2 has been a huge hit, but its not a system seller.

Same with Wukong. There is nothing as hyped as Wukong coming out for Xbox next year.

 

[m14]

No, because while GTA6 might be the game that finally pushes people to go next-gen, they’ll also want to make sure there’s other great games to play. Those great games aren’t on Xbox.

They’re also more than twice as likely coming from PS4 than they are Xbox One.

Let it go

Many of those people will just want COD, GTA and their sports game of choice. They won't go PS5 for the "great games" but because they will know more people who own one.

 

[Woopah]

Anything is possible in theory, but in practicality, no it is as unlikely as anything could be in this industry.

You would generally see a swell of hype around a game like that becoming an actual system seller for Xbox, something more and more difficult to accomplish as a smaller platform where people aren't apt to buy games rather just play them on gamepass.

Helldivers was a smash hit for Sony, but it wasn't really a system seller for PS5.

Space marine 2 has been a huge hit, but its not a system seller.

Same with Wukong. There is nothing as hyped as Wukong coming out for Xbox next year.

That's true, but with how low Xbox Series has been (especially in continental Europe) I don't think a game has to have that big of an effect to be noticeable.

Even if a game only sells 10,000 Xbox Series, that could actually result in sales being flat or slightly up.

Not saying it will happen, but it's not too our of the realm of possibility.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

That's true, but with how low Xbox Series has been (especially in continental Europe) I don't think a game has to have that big of an effect to be noticeable.

Even if a game only sells 10,000 Xbox Series, that could actually result in sales being flat or slightly up.

Not saying it will happen, but it's not too our of the realm of possibility.

We're not talking about something being noticeable. CF25 had a noticeable impact for the XBS.

What we're talking about is a generational needle mover for Xbox.

 

[ap_puff]

Investors or Sony?

Cause it would be Sony forecasting 18 million FY24 and doing nothing to achieve that.

Temp price cuts here and there isn't gonna get them to that forecast.

Maybe they are hoping ps5 pro does numbers? If so that is an odd gamble as pro is on the very expensive side especially with the state of the economy.

Investors need to wake up and get the Sony board to do something about Hiroki Totoki's shortsighted strategy.

 

[PatientGamer]

PS5 will sell more in FY25 than FY24, they will have A LOT of 1st + 3rd party heavyweights to shift tons of units.

GTAVI will probably shift 20 million PS5s by itself.

 

[mckmas8808]

Investors need to wake up and get the Sony board to do something about Hiroki Totoki's shortsighted strategy.

We don't know if he's shortsighted or not yet.

 

[Quixz]

Now there are more consoles on the market than in 2023.
How can the bigger install base cause lower software sales?

I suspect people are spending money on FTP games

 

[kazuyamishima]

PS5 will sell more in FY25 than FY24, they will have A LOT of 1st + 3rd party heavyweights to shift tons of units.

GTAVI will probably shift 20 million PS5s by itself.

Oh yeah, and especially if Sony does a permanent price cut for the Slim.

 

[TheDarkPhantom]

Bought both Astrobot and Space Marine 2 day one, they deserve the number 1 & 2 spots respectively but happy they are selling well regardless

 

[XXL]

Making a first-time appearance is the PS5 Disc Drive, which is at No21 by units, but No 8 by revenue. This will be driven by the success of the PS5 All-Digital console last month, plus increased stock levels for the standalone Disc Drive.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

We don't know if he's shortsighted or not yet.

It could work for the next 20 years and people will still say it was the wrong strategy...

Another interesting thing is no one is talking about this being the PS5 digital's 2nd biggest month ever... that's insane. He mentions that the disc drive is selling because of the digital, but that makes no sense. That's poor analysis. They would just buy the disc SKU. The drive is selling because of the PS5 Pro... how could he not know that?

 

[NastyPasty]

UK market is really small in comparison to Japan market. Despite gaming media exposure on UK market sales the numbers are pitifully low.

2024 total hardware
UK - 829k
Japan - 3.35m

Firstly the UK has just over half the population of Japan.

Secondly, current generation non-portable consoles have actually sold better in the UK. Cumulative sales of the Xbox series and PS5 are about 6 million in Japan, the PS5 has just hit 4m, and Xbox hit 2 million last year. The big difference is in the adoption of switch, which has been more representative of global trends in the UK.

The reason for the "gaming media exposure" you seem to resent, is simple. The figures are released early, and it's a market large enough and, unlike Japan, representative enough to suggest which way the wind's blowing.

 

[Woopah]

We're not talking about something being noticeable. CF25 had a noticeable impact for the XBS.

What we're talking about is a generational needle mover for Xbox.

There doesn't need to be one game that's a generational needle mover. A stronger lineup of exclusives could lead to small movements of Xbox Series growth, or lower declines than there would be if those exclusives didn't exist.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

There doesn't need to be one game that's a generational needle mover. A stronger lineup of exclusives could lead to small movements of Xbox Series growth, or lower declines than there would be if those exclusives didn't exist.

Fundamentally disagree.

Without a needle mover, I doubt Nadella is pushed to continue Xbox hardware in the future.

There is only so much decline is going to be willing to take generation to generation.

 

[Woopah]

Fundamentally disagree.

Without a needle mover, I doubt Nadella is pushed to continue Xbox hardware in the future.

There is only so much decline is going to be willing to take generation to generation.

Maybe not, but are you expecting Nadella to make a decision on Xbox hardware that affects how Xbox Series sells in the UK in 2025?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Maybe not, but are you expecting Nadella to make a decision on Xbox hardware that affects how Xbox Series sells in the UK in 2025?

Not sure where you're going with that.

I expect 2025 to be a pivotal year for Xbox hardware in determining the ceiling for lifetime sales. It can either gather a proportional amount of sales to PS5 due to GTA6 or it can end up significantly behind.

No game announced for Xbox for release next year is going to change that.

If 75+ percent of GTA6 sales (net new) go to PS5, the Xbox is cooked and future hardware is cooked.

 

[XXL]

Maybe not, but are you expecting Nadella to make a decision on Xbox hardware that affects how Xbox Series sells in the UK in 2025?

They already did.

They announced Indiana Jones for PS5 before the Xbox version even released.

Microsoft confirms Indiana Jones is coming to PS5 after its Xbox debut

Bethesda’s Indiana Jones game will arrive on Xbox first.

www.theverge.com

On top of that, they aren't even announcing platforms anymore at the end of their trailers (as of late). For what reason...who knows?

 

[Woopah]

Not sure where you're going with that.

I expect 2025 to be a pivotal year for Xbox hardware in determining the ceiling for lifetime sales. It can either gather a proportional amount of sales to PS5 due to GTA6 or it can end up significantly behind.

No game announced for Xbox for release next year is going to change that.

If 75+ percent of GTA6 sales (net new) go to PS5, the Xbox is cooked and future hardware is cooked.

The question I was asked was about console sales in the UK in 2025, and so my response was focused on that.

I believe that the launch of Switch 2 will be the main contributor of growth in that sector next year, but that there is also some potential for some growth from a PS5 price cut and/or a better exclusive lineup on Xbox.

As you rightly mentioned, GTA VI and next-gen only sports games will also be contributors of growth.

Looking to the longer term, I agree that Xbox hardware could be in big trouble if things don't improve.

 

[Woopah]

They already did.

They announced Indiana Jones for PS5 before the Xbox version even released.

Microsoft confirms Indiana Jones is coming to PS5 after its Xbox debut

Bethesda’s Indiana Jones game will arrive on Xbox first.

www.theverge.com

On top of that, they aren't even announcing platforms anymore at the end of their trailers (as of late). For what reason...who knows?

That's a software announcement rather than a hardware announcement.

If MS do decide to not make a next gen platform, that's not something I expect them to say next year. But let's see!

 

[XXL]

If MS do decide to not make a next gen platform, that's not something I expect them to say next year. But let's see!

I agree with this.

 

[The Cockatrice]

UK sales mean nothing lmao. No idea why we keep having these topics or why ppl are so agitated here over one country thats like 5% of europe.

 

[HeWhoWalks]

UK sales mean nothing lmao. No idea why we keep having these topics or why ppl are so agitated here over one country thats like 5% of europe.

Microsoft’s second biggest region means nothing now?

If that doesn’t tell you about the state of Xbox, nothing will.

 

[The Cockatrice]

Microsoft’s second biggest region means nothing now?

 

[HeWhoWalks]

You really are in the dark about the UK and Xbox?

Explains everything!

 

[Woopah]

UK sales mean nothing lmao. No idea why we keep having these topics or why ppl are so agitated here over one country thats like 5% of europe.

They mean sales in the UK, which is still likely to be one of the top 5 countries for console sales and so interesting to discuss.

 

[The Cockatrice]

likely to be one of the top 5 countries for console sales

Nah. You can put the rest of the Europe together and it would be miles ahead in sales vs UK, not to mention rest of the continents. UK sales are a pebble in an ocean.

 

[Woopah]

Nah. You can put the rest of the Europe together and it would be miles ahead in sales vs UK, not to mention rest of the continents. UK sales are a pebble in an ocean.

And still interesting to discuss. Sales numbers don't have to be global to interesting.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

Not sure where you're going with that.

I expect 2025 to be a pivotal year for Xbox hardware in determining the ceiling for lifetime sales. It can either gather a proportional amount of sales to PS5 due to GTA6 or it can end up significantly behind.

No game announced for Xbox for release next year is going to change that.

If 75+ percent of GTA6 sales (net new) go to PS5, the Xbox is cooked and future hardware is cooked.

It’ll be bigger than 75%

Xbox owners have been conditioned to not buy games, they’ll be wondering when it’ll be coming to Gamepass.

As for those who haven’t got a current gen console and will be planning to, this will sway them…

Rumor: Sony May Have Secured GTA 6 Marketing Rights

Two separate sources allege that Sony might have struck up a deal with Rockstar Games for exclusive marketing rights to the long-awaited GTA 6.

gamerant.com

 

[RetroGamingUK]

There doesn't need to be one game that's a generational needle mover. A stronger lineup of exclusives could lead to small movements of Xbox Series growth, or lower declines than there would be if those exclusives didn't exist.

Any games they announce now will be expected to be coming to PS5, they’ll can’t put that genie back in the bottle

 

[Woopah]

Any games they announce now will be expected to be coming to PS5, they’ll can’t put that genie back in the bottle

Some probably will later, but there will be first party MS games that released on Xbox and PC first.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

Some probably will later, but there will be first party MS games that released on Xbox and PC first.

Yeah not expecting day 1 like PC, but 3-6 months wouldn’t surprise me.

Sony were right to do the 2 year minimum for any PC ports

 

[The Cockatrice]

And still interesting to discuss. Sales numbers don't have to be global to interesting.

It's not. Thats like making topics about New York sales as if they mean anything. They dont. UK does not represent Europe sales like at all, even more so globally.

 

[Woopah]

It's not. Thats like making topics about New York sales as if they mean anything. They dont. UK does not represent Europe sales like at all, even more so globally.

Well we also make discussions about the US, Spain, Japan and Europe. We can have multiple discussions on video game sales.