Coded Heroin
Banned
[PS4] 1740K
[XB1] 1460K
[WiiU] 340K
[XB1] 1460K
[WiiU] 340K
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December 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
ConfusedGamer
Member
[3DS] 393k
[WIU] 291k
[XB1] 1353k
[PS4] 1674k
[WIU] 291k
[XB1] 1353k
[PS4] 1674k
The Mad Draklor
Member
I find it rather odd that he made a prediction before December NPD results are even out. You'd think he would have had enough common sense to wait until Thursday, but I guess not...
DriftingSpirit
Member
The greatest games lineup in 2015 was so great that it will have an aftereffect in 2016 that will allow the X1 to finally catch up to PS4.
pharmboy044
Member
He doesn't know anything and he is most likely talking about NA numbers. It could be possible in the NA market if Sony's gamble on PSVR back fires.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Why would PSVR flopping negatively impact the PS4 in NA?
Even if the PSVR backfires badly, it would only be seen as an accessory (I think it is more than that, but as far as impact the very worst would be badly selling VR titles) with low sales.
Even looking strictly at NA/ NPD, I do not see how you could predict a gap reduction with what we know of 2016 that affects the NA market specifically: PSVR releasing with Software like Rigs and Valkyrie, release of No Man's Sky, Uncharted 4, Ratchet and Clank with Movie tie in, Street Fighter V, Destiny 2.0 marketing, Call of Duty marketing, "probably" some more Star Wars marketing /Game (Rogue One is scheduled for end of year)... And that's just a few of the potential heavy hitters for NA, with the price ready to drop back to $299 officially anytime they'd need to (plus all the exclusives not listed, but it's enough of a list already).
I just don't see it.
pharmboy044
Member
Because they might focus most of their resources towards PSVR to make that a success and ignore other areas? MS might portray that as a negative and use that for their marketing campaign. I say NA because that and the UK are the only markets that MS has any chance of coming back from a sales perspective.
serversurfer
Member
Sorry, I'm not sure what you're saying there.
Let's cut to the chase Coming out of 2015, how do you think UK is pacing relative to the US, compared to the launch quarter? Still ahead, or now behind?
Yeah, my bad. I didn't bother to divide initially, but no, that's not a huge difference.
It's doing pretty bad in Italy too, right? I realize we're talking about smaller and less significant markets here, but that's sorta my point, actually; these markets appear to be down, but they're not hugely significant either way. Germany and France together don't do half of what UK does. And since UK is far and away Bone's strongest non-US market, if it's pacing behind the US, I don't know why you'd assume things have gone any better for Bone on the mainland.
Oh, so that was a Latecomer Takes Lead article? Okay, that makes sense, thanks. How credible is this source? I only ask because a lot of sources were reporting 100k day-one sales for Bone as though that were true too. It's hard for me to judge, not being able to read the source myself, sorry. Not really looking to discard the number or anything; just curious.
But my point is that if mighty Japan, Emperor of Tier 2, is a mere rounding error, it's hard to argue that T2 accounts for at least a million extra Bones. Is it possible? Sure, but a great many things are possible. I'd be more inclined to believe that Japan and China account for more than half of T2's sales on their own, much like Germany, France, Spain, and Italy combined don't come close to equaling the UK.
Also remember that a lot of these countries got bumped out of T1 after their pre-order numbers turned out to be way worse than even lolSpain's, so it's hard to make a strong argument for a significant contribution from them. If they could contribute that significantly, why were their launches scrubbed?
Yeah, that's kinda what I've been saying. I do like your overall strategy of estimating the split in Tier 1, then adding "some amount" for Tier 2, but yeah, a million is probably a bit generous for the latter. Once we get NPD, I figure I'll make a little table showing a range of possible splits for T1, and people can just choose their favorite. Then the table can serve as a makeshift bias-o-meter, additionally verified by the value they then add for T2. lol
Since the NPD is almost here ( only 4 days to go), and since we discussed so much of what are the XB1 sales in US compared to the rest of world, i thought could be cool talk about the PS4 sales in the US compared to rest of world too.
I already maked this comment, but i repost it if someone missed it, since i will update this comment when the NPD is out.
PS4 sales in the US:
December 2013:
WW ~ 4.20m
US ~ 2.00m
US ratio ~47.6%
February 2014
WW ~ 6.00m
US ~ 2.54m
US ratio ~42.3%
March 2014
WW ~ 7.00m
US ~ 2.91m
US ratio ~41.6%
August 2014
WW ~ 10.00m
US ~ 3.95m
US ratio ~39.5%
December 2014
WW ~ 18.50m
US ~ 6.69m
US ratio ~36.2%
February 2015
WW ~ 20.20m
US ~ 7.22m
US ratio ~35.7%
November 2013 to February 2015
We also know that by 22 November 2015 the PS4 has sold 30.20 million WW, and is at 10.85 million in the US, but there is a week of difference, normally that's not that important, but when we talk a week like BlackFriday, i don't think we can make a comparation.
That said, we now know that the PS4 is at 35.90 million unit sold WorldWide by 3 January 2016, and NPD numbers for December 2015 are 29 November to 2 January if i'm correct.
So, in 4 days, we will have an update of what is the US ratio by end of last year for the PS4.
If my 1.5 million prediction is right, PS4 will be at 12.35m in the US, and the US ratio will be ~34.4%.
Or, with other possible result:
1.2m = 33.6%
1.3m = 33.9%
1.4m = 34.2%
1.6m = 34.7%
1.7m = 35.0%
1.8m = 35.3%
1.9m = 35.5%
2.0m = 35.8%
I already maked this comment, but i repost it if someone missed it, since i will update this comment when the NPD is out.
PS4 sales in the US:
December 2013:
WW ~ 4.20m
US ~ 2.00m
US ratio ~47.6%
February 2014
WW ~ 6.00m
US ~ 2.54m
US ratio ~42.3%
March 2014
WW ~ 7.00m
US ~ 2.91m
US ratio ~41.6%
August 2014
WW ~ 10.00m
US ~ 3.95m
US ratio ~39.5%
December 2014
WW ~ 18.50m
US ~ 6.69m
US ratio ~36.2%
February 2015
WW ~ 20.20m
US ~ 7.22m
US ratio ~35.7%
November 2013 to February 2015
We also know that by 22 November 2015 the PS4 has sold 30.20 million WW, and is at 10.85 million in the US, but there is a week of difference, normally that's not that important, but when we talk a week like BlackFriday, i don't think we can make a comparation.
That said, we now know that the PS4 is at 35.90 million unit sold WorldWide by 3 January 2016, and NPD numbers for December 2015 are 29 November to 2 January if i'm correct.
So, in 4 days, we will have an update of what is the US ratio by end of last year for the PS4.
If my 1.5 million prediction is right, PS4 will be at 12.35m in the US, and the US ratio will be ~34.4%.
Or, with other possible result:
1.2m = 33.6%
1.3m = 33.9%
1.4m = 34.2%
1.6m = 34.7%
1.7m = 35.0%
1.8m = 35.3%
1.9m = 35.5%
2.0m = 35.8%
gundamkyoukai
Member
Sony are not going to ignore other areas that is why they have so many marketing deals tie down .
Plus they have a great 1st party line for the next 2 years and they have been smart this whole gen .
I expect they going to push PSVR with GT but that also going to help the consoles it's self .
So that is a win win for them .
spatenfloot
Member
Just call it around 35% and it will be close enough for internet arguments.
serversurfer
Member
Okay, Welfare, dig this. We figured that coming out of October '14, UK was outpacing US by 44%, right? But over the course of Nov '14 through June '15, the UK lead shrank to 11%. So in the intervening eight months, UK was only averaging 70% of the US pace. (I'm "arbitrarily" lumping November '14 in to the second sample, on the assumption that the bulk of that month's sales were captured in the second sample, giving us a "ten month" and an "eight month" sample of UK sales. Keeps the math simple.)
Okay, so there are two ways we can look at the drop in the UK. It could be a one-time course correction, immediately shifting to a 70% pace and holding there. If we project that 70% pace out over six more months, they'd end 2015 in a dead heat with the US.
On the other hand, if the drop in the UK wasn't a one-time correction but instead a gradual decline, that would paint a different picture at the end of 2015. For example, maybe UK didn't see quite the boost US got Holiday '14, and didn't sustain its holiday sales as well in to 2015 as the US did. So they may have been at 100% of US pace in December, and 40% of US pace in June, giving the 70% average over the eight months. (Ass-sourced numbers that may or may not actually work.) So if UK was on such a downslope that continued through the end of the year, then they should indeed be behind the US pace through end-of-2015, though how much is behind anyone's guess without monthly UK data to track.
So, does that seem like the two most likely results for the UK coming out of 2015? The former seems a bit idyllic to be probable, but can we agree the best UK can probably hope for versus 2103 is flat, and "down some small amount" is at least equally likely if not a bit more so? Pending actual numbers from UK, obviously.
Okay, so there are two ways we can look at the drop in the UK. It could be a one-time course correction, immediately shifting to a 70% pace and holding there. If we project that 70% pace out over six more months, they'd end 2015 in a dead heat with the US.
On the other hand, if the drop in the UK wasn't a one-time correction but instead a gradual decline, that would paint a different picture at the end of 2015. For example, maybe UK didn't see quite the boost US got Holiday '14, and didn't sustain its holiday sales as well in to 2015 as the US did. So they may have been at 100% of US pace in December, and 40% of US pace in June, giving the 70% average over the eight months. (Ass-sourced numbers that may or may not actually work.) So if UK was on such a downslope that continued through the end of the year, then they should indeed be behind the US pace through end-of-2015, though how much is behind anyone's guess without monthly UK data to track.
So, does that seem like the two most likely results for the UK coming out of 2015? The former seems a bit idyllic to be probable, but can we agree the best UK can probably hope for versus 2103 is flat, and "down some small amount" is at least equally likely if not a bit more so? Pending actual numbers from UK, obviously.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
PS4] 1600K
[WIU] 270K
[XB1] 1375K
[3DS] 470K
[WIU] 270K
[XB1] 1375K
[3DS] 470K
Aceofspades
Banned
[PS4] 1530K
[WIU] 210K
[XB1] 1380K
[3DS] 330K
[WIU] 210K
[XB1] 1380K
[3DS] 330K
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Again, I currently have one of the highest number for WiiU with a 13% drop from last year (which I feels is super conservative). Why is EVERYONE over 50% drop YOY?!?! I must have missed a very important retail insight or everyone is on crazy pills (or just I am^^).
demigod
Member
Sony isn't MS. They're not going to abandon games in favor of psvr like MS did for kinect.
Primethius
Banned
No clue. I'm in the same boat as you. I expect a largely similar number to last year.
Ok honestly, usually i'm not that guy, i don't care about the others predictions, but yeah, that's starting to be a bit silly now.
I know people only care about PS4 VS XB1, but let's don't make random predictions for the others two.
Bear Force One
Banned
That makes absolutely zero sense.
Obliterator
Member
I have found that journalists on average know VERY VERY little about the actual financial side of this industry. There are exceptions of course but on average they are pretty out of touch with sales
I think most are expecting it will be down because NX is on its way and the bundles/discounts in November didn't seem to do much of anything.
Heads up your WIIU estimate is closed with the wrong character. Might wanna fix that.
November 2013 to February 2015
So, in 4 days, we will have an update of what is the US ratio by end of last year for the PS4.
If my 1.5 million prediction is right, PS4 will be at 12.35m in the US, and the US ratio will be ~34.4%.
Or, with other possible result:
1.2m = 33.6%
1.3m = 33.9%
1.4m = 34.2%
1.6m = 34.7%
1.7m = 35.0%
1.8m = 35.3%
1.9m = 35.5%
2.0m = 35.8%
Cheers! Very helpful. Personally I'm thinking they'll be ~1600k for December. Do you happen to have any WW split data for XB1?
I think most are assuming that Wii U/3DS will have the same kind of nearly flat Nov->Dec transition that PS4/XB1 will likely have. They probably aren't taking the differing historical transitions of the consoles in Nov->Dec into account, then. For example, you have Wii U at 417K, which is ~75% MOM increase from November. The four previous predictions on this page show 240K, 210K, 250K, and 270K, which would all be about flat from November MOM.
EventHorizon
Member
[PS4] 1650K
[WIU] 265K
[XB1] 1380K
[3DS] 390K
[WIU] 265K
[XB1] 1380K
[3DS] 390K
Does the general consumer even know that the NX exists?
Isn't that whole Nintendo conference debate precisely about the best avenue to let the public know that there's a new system at all? But now that same new unknown system is affecting sales in Dec '15?
I agree this could also be a reason for the low estimates.
A previous console always slows down after its successor is announced unless the price is dropped dramatically as seen with the PS2. They already said the successor is on its way that's enough to discourage the hardcore crowd from picking one up. No doubt the drop will increase dramatically once the NX is officially revealed as well but yes I do think it is already affecting sales to some degree. Or do you think it's normal for a platform to be flat YoY in November despite having a bundle with 2 of its strongest performing titles available at a lower price than last year?
and people call me crazy. So unjust is this world. ;(
and he is associate editor. Can i get deputy associate editor post?
I'd read a couple of your articles. Have you considered writing for Forbes or something?
Sorry but last time MS released sold numbers was in 2013.
It was 1,817,000 US and >3 million WW.
CosmicQueso
Member
Seriously noobie, you could do it. You should do it. Nay, you must do it.
Plague Doctor
Member
[3DS] 400K
[PS4] 1900K
[WIU] 280K
[XB1] 1400K
Playing it conservative and giving a boost to all over November. Going a little stronger for PS4 to take into account my belief that the TFA translates into Battlefront bunduru sales spike.
[PS4] 1900K
[WIU] 280K
[XB1] 1400K
Playing it conservative and giving a boost to all over November. Going a little stronger for PS4 to take into account my belief that the TFA translates into Battlefront bunduru sales spike.
Welfare
Member
I think the UK has fallen off pace from where it was at, compared to the US, back in May 2015. How much so? Ehhhh idk.
serversurfer
Member
Just to clarify, do you mean down from the x1.11 it was at, or down from the 70% average that brought it from x1.44 to x1.11? Like I said, if you just project that 70% out to the end of the year, the best they'd end up at is x1.008, and if you apply any kind of natural curve to the decline, they'd be behind the US. So, less than or equal to x1, basically.
You're not saying, "Could still be x1.09 though," right? What would've caused them to suddenly turn it back around and keep pace with the US again over the final six months? There's really no evidence for that
If you're saying that the UK may be pacing even worse than the 70% they did Nov-Jun, well, we don't really have any evidence for that either. All we can really do is project out their most recent performance report, which seems to give us flat-to-down-a-bit results. Could it be better or worse than that? Sure, but there's nothing to make us think that may be the case.
CosmicQueso
Member
So Wii U HW is only off like 10% vs YA through both 2015 and 2nd half 2015 and yet people are predicting Dec declines of 50%+?
Hmmmmm
Hmmmmm
Did anyone read this PAL NPD? 
http://www.mcvpacific.com/news/read...nd-igea-top-ten-charts-powered-by-npd/0161051
http://www.mcvpacific.com/news/read...nd-igea-top-ten-charts-powered-by-npd/0161051
EventHorizon
Member
I originally had my PS4 prediction that high but reduced it for 2 reasons.
1) PS4 November NPD numbers were probably artificially higher due to preorders for BF and BO3 being shifted into the month from prior months. I guesstimated (based on absolutely nothing) a 200k bump and had to back that out first before using November to predict December.
2) Battlefront bundle sales also spiked when it was released in November so the spike is already baked into the November numbers. I wouldn't expect and additional bump over November sales due to the movie release.
Welfare
Member
The latter.
ethomaz
Banned
This deserve a thread.Did anyone read this PAL NPD?
http://www.mcvpacific.com/news/read...nd-igea-top-ten-charts-powered-by-npd/0161051
Plague Doctor
Member
EventHorizon, thanks for your take. I do have a day to consider coming in a little lower. My BF is more of a gut feeling backed by anecdotes over the holidays but you do make a compelling case.
Did anyone read this PAL NPD?
http://www.mcvpacific.com/news/read...nd-igea-top-ten-charts-powered-by-npd/0161051
Silly question i know, but like always, those chart doesn't include bundle... or yes?
CosmicQueso
Member
Did anyone read this PAL NPD?
http://www.mcvpacific.com/news/read...nd-igea-top-ten-charts-powered-by-npd/0161051
What here is surprising or has everyone's interest? Not seeing anything that jumps out, must be missing something?