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December 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
DriftingSpirit
Member
72%.
mejin
Member
Now that Microsoft is silent, xbox fans are doing the spins. It's pretty crazy and sad.
Imo, UK is well over 2m for XB1.
Last year, XB1 sales between 1 January and 14 November 2014, were 636,000 unit.
I think that is very likely for XB1 be up YOY in the same period in 2015. By 14 November 2014 XB1 was >1 million in UK.
So, i think is likely that, between January 2015 and first half of November 2015, XB1 sales were >636,000.
We know XB1 sold 134,000 during Black Friday week this year, and 109,000 in Black Friday week of last year. Those two Black Friday are 243,000 combined. And we also should add the December sales of both December 2014 and December 2015.
In short, i believe that, XB1 should be more close to 2.5 million than 2 million. I also believe that PS4 is super close to 3 million, and i'm sure it will be annunced very soon...
well, we'll see.
If Xbone is close to 2.5 million, than PS4 is way above 3 million. Wasn't there a news about PS4 was the best selling console during black friday last year?
Yes, PS4 was the best selling console of last year, but by only 5,000 unit.
Honestly, like i said, i'm surprised there isn't still the > 3 million PS4 annunced in UK, that's why i said is for sure super close to those numbers. I think there is a very strong chance for happen by end of January.
If PS4 is still < 3 million by end of this month, there is some of wrong.
EDIT :there was. During July last year.
http://www.videogamer.com/news/ps4_..._console_in_the_uk_every_month_this_year.html
And according to PAL charts during holiday 2015 and position of Uncharted collection, NDC bundle sold gangbusters.
And i know that we wrote here before that after PS4's 2 million announcement, Xbone was around 1.5 million. And there is no way that Xbone is close to 2.5 million and PS4 super close to 3 million. That means that Xbone sold at higher rate than PS4 and it's the opposite of "PS4 best selling console in UK every month" link, opposite of Nathan Drake position in PAL charts. And also PS4 versions of SW Battlefront, BLOPS 3 and Fallout 3 were in higher positions than Xbone versions on PAL charts.
I'm out of home now, i can't write a long comment sorry. Give me some hours, i will reply you with my PC when i will back.
EDIT: I'm back.
Like i said, XB1 sales in the firsts 46 weeks of 2014 were 636,000 unit.
In the US, the XB1 sales for the firsts 10 months of 2015 ( so, i don't add the first 2 weeks of November 2015 because NPD only track months) were up YOY by 24%.
Seem likely believe that even in the UK the sales were up YOY, or at least flat.
But talking about holidays sales, in 2014 XB1 sold 109,000 in UK during Black Friday week. We also know that, XB1+PS4 sales during Black Friday were up by 120% compared to the week 47. PS4+XB1 sales were 217,000 unit combined, which mean in the week 47, the combined sales of PS4+XB1 were 99,000 unit. We don't know PS4/XB1 sales, but i think they were very close, just like during Black Friday, so, let's say we have a 50/50 split, XB1 was at < 50k during week 47 of 2014... let's say 40k, for talk about a "worst scenario".
XB1 by end of November 2014 > 1.15 million.
Now, in 2015, we know XB1 has sold 134,000 during Black Friday week. So, XB1 > 1.28 million.
And was up YOY by 23% during Black Friday week... that's why seem likely believe that, even in the rest of the year was up YOY in UK, we know in the US was up YOY during firsts 10 months (now 11) of 2015, and in UK was up during Black Friday week. XB1 sales were 636,000 last year, so, i think is likely that XB1 in 2015 has sold more than that.
So, XB1 > 1.91 million
Now, the last VERY important thing, is the December sales of both 2015, and 2014.
I mean, BF week was always >100k, and in UK Black Friday isn't SO big like in the US, i believe >200k should be pretty easy in December of both 2014 and 2015.
In conclusion, i know the final part is more like a speculation, but if i should be honest, like i said, XB1 is more close to 2.5m than 2m in my opinion. i don't say IS AT 2.5m, but should be close to this.
And yeah, PS4 should be super close to 3m as well.
I once paid $1300 for two 680ftw cards and spent 40 hours trying to mod skyrim. That experience kinda soured me on PC gaming. It's like food poisoning ruining one's taste for a particular food. I mean it's not fair for me to avoid Indian food because I spent 2 days shivering in bed from a bad Masala Dosa, but I mostly do.
Agree totally. Still didn't stop me from getting repeatedly shat upon in mediacreate threads when contradicting vita-is-dead grave dancers, lol.
And_Gignac
Member
[3DS] 511,111
[PS4] 1,644,444
[WIU] 422,222
[XB1] 1,111,111
[PS4] 1,644,444
[WIU] 422,222
[XB1] 1,111,111
CosmicQueso
Member
I never doubted that Xbox passed 2 mil. mark in past few months. I think that gap is around 750k-800k.
Aceofspades
Banned
So X1 sold only 8m last year?
Welfare
Member
I posted this back in the PS4 sales thread, and got no response there, and brought it up in the 18 million Xbox One thread, and no response there. I hope people are actually seeing the post because I would like to know if there is something wrong with how I approached some of the ROTW, and would like to see counter arguments for it.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=191344827&postcount=1115
Also in that post I just realized that even then the US:ROTW ratio (from the original launch countries) still grows in the US's favor slightly, so I would appreciate some type of rebuttal.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=191344827&postcount=1115
Also in that post I just realized that even then the US:ROTW ratio (from the original launch countries) still grows in the US's favor slightly, so I would appreciate some type of rebuttal.
Mass_Pincup
Banned
I have a question.
Does the Xbox One still require the mandatory update when bought?
I had one for Christmas and I had to do an update for it, which makes me think that it might still be in effect. If so the number of activated Xbox One should be pretty close to the number of consoles sold.
Does the Xbox One still require the mandatory update when bought?
I had one for Christmas and I had to do an update for it, which makes me think that it might still be in effect. If so the number of activated Xbox One should be pretty close to the number of consoles sold.
Welfare
Member
Apparently so.
18 million consoles activated over the Christmas/Holiday season doesn't mean that all Xbox One's bought were in use/connected online over a 28 period. Not saying that this would increase the number by 2-3 million, but something like 5-7% of consoles fitting that criteria does not seem outlandish.
slavesnyder
Member
I share this line of thinking.
But, theoretically, is there a posibility a console is counted twice in these 28 days? Re-sold or two accounts on one box?
Welfare
Member
One Xbox would only be counted once. All the statistic is that 18 million Xbox One's connected to the internet at least once in the 28 days span. Activating more than once in that 28 day span would be retention rate, I guess.
slavesnyder
Member
Okay, so it's not the number of IDs they are counting.
Thanks, Welfare
spatenfloot
Member
The problem is that it is a rumor, not a statistic. Microsoft hasn't given any numbers, just an analyst giving second hand rounded numbers from a supposed insider. Cboat also works at Microsoft and he said things like 7-10k. A different Microsoft analyst also said that Xbox was losing billions which was hidden by Android royalties. Should we believe that one too?
I do believe that total sales are somewhere around 18 million, but people are trying to read too much into it.
Welfare
Member
The 18 million number, yeah, but I don't think it needs to be pointed out at this point.
Cboat has said a lot of things, and I have no idea what happened with him and that 7-10k post, but that was like one of two things he was wrong about.
ethomaz
Banned
To be fair I'm not putting a lot of thrust in this 18m rumor because for me I disagree that outside US accounts for anything close to 50% of Xbone sales.
No big country in EU or Japam support these numbers.
I hope GFK release some 2015 number for us until end of January.
And I'm waiting NPD December before try to make estimates... 1.5m can make me start to believe in these 18m.
With 11 million sold in USA, it doesn't need nothing close to 50% of US sales for be at 18m.
With 60% USA sales, you have 18.33 million worldwide, for example.
serversurfer
Member
You and I had talked about that stuff previously at some length, and I thought we determined that our non-US indicators pointed almost invariably down. UK was still up a bit against the US as of late June '15, but that actually indicated much weaker performance than the US from Holiday '14 up to that point, as it had previously been much further ahead of the US pace.
I'm not really sure what sort of rebuttal you're looking for, since it seems like your conclusion is, "Could be a lot or a little, depending on how not-US is doing." As we discussed previously, not-US indicators seem to be down, but you don't seem to take a position either way here, so are you just looking for approval of the methodology? =/
madstarr12
Member
[PS4] 1980K
[WIU] 525K
[XB1] 1675K
[3DS] 675K
[WIU] 525K
[XB1] 1675K
[3DS] 675K
Welfare
Member
I'm wondering how it is unlikely that the Xbox One is not over 18 million at the least. Just because a country like the UK was selling slower compared to the US early in the year does not mean it sold less than what it did in the total of 2014 (sold more in BF week in 2015 compared to 2014 as an example), and there is no data to suggest that countries like Germany and France are slowing down compared to what they did in 2014 as well.
At the bare minimum assuming that indeed, other Tier 1 countries are down in 2015 to 2014, the 13 original countries should total ~17.4m at the end of 2015.
Including tier 2 countries is incredibly tricky to do, because the only one we have clear data is Japan at ~65k, and China is muddy, but was apparently >70k early in 2015.
The Xbox One launched in 28 countries (Tier 2) back in September 2014. Japan and China were 2 of those, and at a minimum combined those 2 did >135k by the end of 2015, so WW the minimum should >17.5m.
Assuming those 26 other countries sold less Xbox One's than Japan (setting a minimum, so let's say those 26 countries all sold 50% of what Japan has done so far, which ~33k), that's an additional 860k sold over the course of 16 months in 26 countries.
I don't want to assume that you think the Xbox One has sold 0 units in the Tier 2 countries (in fact I know you don't since you think it's a strawman) but this is when you have to decide whether you want to think that a country that gives 0 fucks about the Xbox brand and at the same time it's dedicated console market is dying will actually sell much more Xbox One's than the other 26 countries in Tier 2, or that tier 2 countries are in fact selling Xbox One's, and because of that and how much time has passed since launch (16 months/2 holiday periods) the Xbox One should be well over 18 million units sold.
Welfare
Member
But right now it's assumptions on top of assumptions and rumors, built on assumed ratios between US and RotW.
Before making these kinds of calculations, we should all wait until next Thursday, at least
Note that I'm not disagreeing that the XB1 could very well be at 11m in the US right now, if not more (as of Nov 30th, it was around 9.7m), but it's a lot of guesswork piling on top of guesswork at this point in my opinion, so we should all be very careful about how we present data...
But right now it's assumptions on top of assumptions and rumors, built on assumed ratios between US and RotW.
Before making these kinds of calculations, we should all wait until next Thursday, at least
Note that I'm not disagreeing that the XB1 could very well be at 11m in the US right now, if not more (as of Nov 30th, it was around 9.7m), but it's a lot of guesswork piling on top of guesswork at this point in my opinion, so we should all be very careful about how we present data...
Oh, i know, was just for reply that XB1 doesn't need to be at 50% marketshare in the US for be at 18m WW.
My 11 million was just a possible ( and likely) result from this NPD.
One post above you says it
No, it's only 63,891. What a XBOX fanboy, trying to say XB1 sales are bigger than what they are.
Welfare
Member
LOLNo, it's only 63,891. What a XBOX fanboy, trying to say XB1 sales are bigger than what they are.
Superior Tracker is better! 64,430
But joking aside, it's going to take months for it to even get to 70k so it doesn't matter.
serversurfer
Member
But remember, our other snapshot wasn't the total of 2014, but rather just before the holiday sales really took off. That was the holiday that Bone really took off in the US, and the June 2015 snapshot of the UK indicates it didn't match that change in momentum, and while it still retained a bit of the lead it had built up Jan14-Nov14, it was losing serious ground Dec14-June15. Since we've no indication of a re-reversal there, the safer assumption is that US continues to outpace UK, and UK has now surrendered its early lead. Again, it's entirely possible the downward trend in UK no longer applies, but we've no evidence for that.
Even if you don't feel that Mighty UK now being well off the US pace serves as a strong indicator that things are worse still elsewhere, we already saw that France was significantly off the US pace as early as the end of 2014, and Spain was piss poor at sustaining its launch momentum. So again, downward indicators, with nothing to indicate reversal.
Sorry, but I've never heard of that site, and I don't read Mandarin? Anyway, does it say Bone sold 71k in China and PS4 sold 73k? If so, I'm pretty dubious, given all of the other reports we've gotten from China indicate PS4 is selling much better there, not like 3% better. =/
You do realize there's a fairly sizable gorge between 0 and 860,000, yes? And while I agree that Japan is a shadow of its former self, it's still one of the most significant video game markets in the world, so no, I don't think it's at all safe to assume that each of these 26 faceless wonders bought half as many consoles as Japan did.
I should also point out that you're actually employing the strawman argument here. "Having already conceded that sales>0, then by extension you must also concede sales>860,000, and consoles are dad in Japan, so Bone must be doing comparatively well in Slovakia," but I don't need to concede anything of the sort, because the only significance of the 860k figure is that it's a value you found in your ass that happened to do a nice job of supporting your argument and there's no reason to think that Slovakia will step up in support of the Bone, even if Japan failed to do so. So you see why strawmen aren't really considered a valid form of debate.
Hey, isn't that my argument?
Welfare
Member
Are you referring to the ratio of sales between the US:UK? I had already agreed with you that yes, the UK has slowed down when looking to June 2015. This was because of the fact that the Xbox One had serious sales in November 2014, and the UK was a price war between the Xbox One and PS4. I then took the discussion of not the ratio between the US:UK, but how the UK would be performing to what it did in 2014 to what it would be doing in 2015. That was the point of the post I linked to. Trying to find a minimum of what the Xbox One would be WW.
DId I miss something or are you mistaken?
US
2013 1817k
2014 4373k
x2.41
FR
2013 126k
2014 290k
x2.30
That's a 5% difference in performance
And with Spain, yeah it is where the Xbox One probably performs the worst out of the original 13 countries, but I would not use that as the rule, but rather an exception.
That was as of the end of April. So 8 months of Xbox One sales and I believe just 1 month for the PS4.
I probably (definitely) could've worded this section better, but I wasn't trying to prop up a strawman or anything of the sort, or even suggest that the Xbox One for sure sold X number in Tier 2 and it is that number.
Japan might be big for Nintendo, Sony, and mobile, but they are not for Microsoft. Never have been, and certainly not now with the Xbox One. Japan made up about 2% of the total sales for both the Xbox and 360, but now it's not even 1% for the Xbox One. It's a rounding error.
On its own.
And that is where I'm trying to get at. All these tiny countries in comparison to the US/UK/Canada (yes Canada) that when you look at them individually, they are miniscule. Combined though? They start adding up, and trying to establish a minimum of what a country might sell, taking that number, and trying to establish a minimum for an entire group, is better than the attempts at saying "Hard to believe it's selling THAT well in the ROTW".
There is a point where these countries start adding up, espicially after 2 holiday seasons.
We're 4 days away from NPD, and hopefully in that period we get updates on some Euro countries, so until then I guess it is pointless to try and figure this stuff out now.
Hey, isn't that my argument?
VanCityGamer
Member
Vince Ingenito from IGN is great, but yikes...just listened to his prediction for sales in 2016 on the most recent GameScoop. He thinks the Xbox One is going to close the gap a lot in 2016 (though not all the way). One of the other guys on the panel was agreeing too. It's interesting to me sometimes to see how out of touch people in the industry can be in terms of sales. One of Vince's arguments is that PS4 had a weak 2015 with exclusives and Xbox One has been righting the ship (I personally actually preferred PS4's lineup). This makes no sense since you should be looking at the 2016 lineup when predicting the sales, if exclusives even do matter much.
They are stuck with a US mentality.
But it's surprising they believe exclusive games regularly move hardware.
It's common knowledge 3rd party is king there.
wapplew
Member
Let's just say exclusive moved console, but what exclusive bigger than main line Halo on Xbox one?
If Halo 5 didn't close the gap, what will? Couple of new IP and indies?
I know it was just PR talk but the more I look at 2016 the less I think "Best Lineup in Xbox One History", especially compared to last year.
Are you really surprised? Most of these journalists are awful at sales predictions and typically way off base.
The gap is too large for this scenario to be a reality. Heck EA wouldn't give ms mass effect an exclusive and that game sells a fraction of the above.
Warchest also doesn't help when publishers look at a market as a bit limited. This was their opinion before launch too:
PS worldwide brand.
Xbox us and UK brand.
The first couple years has reinforced this. Most publishers are smart enough now to not go against the worldwide brand.
I doubt MS would give the Xbox Division access to a "bottomless warchest" just for another timed exclusive. Last one bite them in the bottom.
Their new focus on exclusive titles benefit the platform as a whole better in the end anyways.
Chobel
Member
StrongBlackVine
Banned
But that gap is growing in the US too.
Neogaf has pretty much become my source for informed gaming industry discussion because the teenagers on here are more knowledgeable than a lot of these "journalists." IGN has really gone downhill since Colin and Greg left.
I found it funny that Vince said he doesn't consider Oculus a peripheral. Sees it in the same lane as a PC or a console as opposed to being on equal footing with PSVR. At least Daemon called him out. Vince still remained adamant about it though. Even convinced the guy sitting beside him to go along with it. Guy on the far right (our right) wasn't much better. Besides not knowing the definition of peripheral, his contribution was PSVR could be 100$ and still be smothered out by the FaceBook backed Oculus, because porn.
If you care to watch it. All this nonsense goes down at about the 48 minute mark.
On topic: Where's the insider info?
Nightengale
Member
Folks like Vince are smart, but they're way outta their leagues when it comes to having an indepth perspective of the video game business in terms of sales, market size, economics, regions, etc. Part of it stems from the fact that it's just not an area of interest for them.
Even someone like Colin, who's deeply interested in the video games business and among all the ex-IGN and current IGN staffers, is the smartest on these things, don't really have an in-depth overview of how diverse the market is either.
Even someone like Colin, who's deeply interested in the video games business and among all the ex-IGN and current IGN staffers, is the smartest on these things, don't really have an in-depth overview of how diverse the market is either.
I think so too. But just look back at the threads before E3 2014. Speculations of what MS would buy with the warchest because they have so much money while poor Sony has to sell HQs. Some thought MS would buy FIFA exclusivity.