Just heard this on the podcast as well. Came on here to post, but see it has already been mentioned. Mary Jo has good sources in MS btw.
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December 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Just heard this on the podcast as well. Came on here to post, but see it has already been mentioned. Mary Jo has good sources in MS btw.
slavesnyder
Member
Havn't had so much fun outside of NPD threads in a while. Sales themes, sales themes everywhere. A lot of new, very motivated members with exotic opinions. Hope they join the party next week.
Or as we GAFfers say: My unit is activated.
Or as we GAFfers say: My unit is activated.
Omnistalgic
Member
So around 18 million activated X1 is a little more or a little less?
Either way, that's in line with what most predictions have at 17-17.7 million. Seems reasonable enough, really sucks MS doesn't just have official numbers, Wiiu has some milestone announcement at least.
Either way, that's in line with what most predictions have at 17-17.7 million. Seems reasonable enough, really sucks MS doesn't just have official numbers, Wiiu has some milestone announcement at least.
slavesnyder
Member
As I understood, even this 18 mio were "about 18 mio." Should be less. If it was more we would shurely have heard "over 18 mio". Definition of it is very blurry, too.
But as this number does not differs much from our* analysis we can stic with our numbers. Would have been debatable if the difference was was more than 10% off, but that's not the case.
*Our in the sense of "the guys here who can do maths for what I am very thankful"
spatenfloot
Member
I don't remember anyone saying it was close. The SW bundle sold like crazy.
CosmicQueso
Member
I really can't decide if that would be the best thing ever or the worst thing ever.
Some of these people have... interesting opinions on things.
It was last thread I guess. They bailed from the thread when asked what indications they were seeing. I guess they never came back.
Except for the fact that we do have very damning evidence of Xbox One hardware sales number compared to PS4 sales from markets such as Germany, Spain, Italy etc.
Germany: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1039840
Spain: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=912200
Italy: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1045420
Edit: France: http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=143858593&postcount=15
Chobel
Member
Do you think the growth in RoTW is bigger than US? Do you think US share in WW sales of XBO is decreasing? Because that what's >18.5M would mean.
Yes, but knowing this people make estimates worse than reality for WW. Some folks think that 70% of XBO WW sales are in US.
The thruth is that is very difficult to project worldwide sales, we don't have data for doing that, so is all conjecture based on the false idea that Xbox One is dead outside of NA/UK, but the numbers prove that is not despite selling way less than PS4.
So 5 ( and more ) : 1 is not way less?
I literally said that is way less, read again.
The definition of dead is of course relative to the market leader, so selling in way worse ratios such as 1:4.2 (Germany), 1:7 (Spain) is pretty much considered being dead.
What percentage do you believe US constitutes of the WW Xbox One sales? (For the record, I'm not one of those thinking it's 70%).
The general consensus is that US sales make up 60-68% of XB1 sales. Some say 70% as a theoretical maximum. I haven't seen anyone say 70% is likely figure. Seems pretty reasonable to me or do you disagree with a range of 60-70% because the likelihood of it being below 60% seems nigh infantessimal to me thanks to what we know about its sales WW and the splits we have before MS stopped providing concrete figures.
We don't have NPD december yet but Xbox One likely surpass 11 million in US, so I guess something around 60%. I have no idea how much consoles are offline and not activated for Win 10, this can change the scenario a bit.
68% doesn't fit in the ~18m number. Is lower.
That's a example of why I'm saying that people tend to think that Xbox One is doing worse than it is WW.
KurtSloane
Banned
There is no way there are numbers in millions of X1's out there not updated or connected.
If anything that number would be insignificant to have no real effect on the numbers.
The number for not upgraded to W10 would be the same as not connected, all updated X1 are on W10.
KurtSloane
Banned
Where is it doing well worldwide, its dead in most European countries apart from the UK.
Where are the extra millions coming from outside those two territories? (US and UK).
I do not think it is quite at 70% (that would be catastrophic imo), but I do think they are above 60% at this point.
With the huge numbers in Nov-Dec which seem specific to the US with the crazy deals, maybe even close to 65%.
You realize that number is far from concrete right? It's not an unofficial number from an analyst and it's not even sales it's "activated" consoles. Trying to use this as a gauge to prove or disprove split % is a fool's errand. All we can do estimate split based on the actual data we have and that points to a range that falls within the 60s.
You are basically getting flustered about people having a theoretical maximum on an estimated % range that's a few percentage points higher than your own estimations. Literally a few percentage points. Something that, in an analyst report, would be well within the margin of error. How is that objectionable? Or are you trying to argue that 60% is he absolute maximum? If so you need to bring some evidence of that because everything we have so far implies otherwise and an unofficial figure from analyst for "activated" units as a part of their total activated platform does not cut it.
Obviously from the others 40 countries where the console is sold.
Ok show us where. Show us the sales figures that prove the info we have thus far is wrong. Prove that our range estimations are incorrect. Or is it just a belief with no evidence to the contrary?
1st Course
Member
Didn't ZhugeEX say XB1 is doing well in South America?
"few" percentages points make a significant difference in this case, we are talking about millions.
I know 18 million is not a official public Microsoft figure, but Mary Jo Foley is a well know Microsoft analyst and obtained the information. For me has much more value than guesses that people make here. Plus "activated" actually imples that total sales are bigger.
He made an article saying that Xbox One sells better than PS4 in Latin America for 2014.
The big difference was in Mexico.
http://gearnuke.com/xbox-one-sells-better-ps4-latin-america-2014/#
So your entire argument hinges on this unofficial figure as compared to our confirmed sales data and historical sales trend data for the platform? Doesn't seem like a string argument to me. Even still we are talking about a 5% differential between your estimates and others. That hardly seems objection worthy to me. Even at your proposed 18m figure a differential of 5% would be equivalent to roughly 1 million sales not "millions". Seems like a pretty small difference to me given the lack of official figures and estimations involved. Or are you trying to use your estimated ratio to say that their sold through is much higher than 18 - 19 million?
KurtSloane
Banned
And these 40 territories are going to make up how much in your estimation?
yeah, and your entire argument hinges on guesses. In the same way I can't prove I'm right, you can't prove I'm wrong, so is basically choose what to believe.
The only sure thing we know is that MS shipped more than 17.7m consoles until the end of 2015.
Except you literally stated that "the numbers" prove our estimations are wrong.
So, again, I ask what numbers? Where are these numbers you speak of that show our estimates are inaccurate and that XB1 is selling 40+% of its total WW sales outside of the US?
US and UK combined is likely more than 13 million, so the rest is split in between 40 countries.
Canada alone should represent ~1 million. Mexico, Brazil, Australia and New Zealand apparently are good markets for the system and we have the rest where even doing much worse than PS4, I'm sure gives a amount not negligible.
"prove" was a wrong word, I believe in the number, so for me the estimates are wrong, but I can't argue that the number is the undoubted truth. I just think are more reliable and makes more sense than GAF's estimates.
spatenfloot
Member
You have no evidence to show that it isn't dead outside of a few countries. At least the people arguing the other side have software charts, etc to support the conjecture that the Xbone isn't selling well.
I repost this.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=191621934&postcount=198
Btw, there is no way for XB1 sales to be 70% or even close to this. And even 65% seem way too high.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=191621934&postcount=198
Btw, there is no way for XB1 sales to be 70% or even close to this. And even 65% seem way too high.
I think that it is somewhere above Xbox 360 (at the exact time in it's life cycle) and around 18 million. But you need to be rational about this also. We have historic data from last generation that suggest that US/UK made up about 65% of Xbox 360's overall install base. I agree that the US does not make up 70% of Xbox One's install base. But Microsoft is definitely more dependent on both the US and the UK this time around. Xbox One also does pretty well in Australia. But the fact remains that Xbox One is definitely less popular than it's predecessor.
There's room between "dead" and "well", don't need to be one or another. And I have evidence, this ~18 million figure is one of them.
Xbox One is dead in Japan, maybe in other countries too, but is moving in others. The PS4 huge sales doesn't automatically means dead for XBO.
Surely, Microsoft depends more of North America and UK than on 360 era, but say that is less popular is wrong since is doing better than 360 at the same point.
Agreed, no way US accounts for 70% overall. But 65% is not way too high. In fact, US made up ~60% with the more popular, Xbox 360. Xbox One is irrefutably is less popular WW than Xbox 360 so it isn't far fetched to assume that their dependence on their stronger markets would increase. But let me reiterate that the 70% for US, is not possible.
Ninja Sharingan
Banned
People have issues that the xbnox is being outsold by the ps4 by 2 to 1? I mean peoplea re upset the xbox has hit 18 million, potentailly?
spatenfloot
Member
For the US alone, it is likely around 60%.
US+UK is likely at least 70%.
CosmicQueso
Member
A console is only truly "dead" when packaged software stops being published in support of that console.
If packaged Xbox One games continue to be published in Germany and other PS4 heavy share countries, then those territories are seen as having enough of a market that it is worthy of investment.
When packaged Xbox One games stop being published and sold in a country, that's when you know a system is "dead".
#followthemoney #xoneaintnovitayet
If packaged Xbox One games continue to be published in Germany and other PS4 heavy share countries, then those territories are seen as having enough of a market that it is worthy of investment.
When packaged Xbox One games stop being published and sold in a country, that's when you know a system is "dead".
#followthemoney #xoneaintnovitayet
US is ~50% for Xbox 360
My apologies. I meant from a worldwide perspective. Also PS4 is currently tracking ahead of PS2 but I, personally, don't think that it will surpass PS2's LTD. Do you honestly believe that Xbox One will hit and 80 million LTD this generation? I think it is only a matter of time, like with PS4 and PS2, that Xbox One will start tracking below Xbox 360.
75% seems sensible now if we accept 'around 18million'
Wonder which of those 2 events will happen first...
ps3ud0 8)
PS2 won't be topped. It's just impossible.