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December 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 12th

Y

Yurikerr

This post isn't by me, it's by a guy with the same username as me.
Ryng_Tolu said:
Still very easy.

Should be able to sell > 1 million or very close to this, and honestly i think the only game that can beat it is Black Ops III and maybe Fallout.

But yeah, Fallout legs looks not that good, and with the film released, i will be a bit surprised if Fallout will beat it.
Click to expand...

And the Battlefront discount was bigger wasn't it? Like $39,99 to $49,99.
 
C

cartographer

Member
Yurikerr said:
I know it sounds crazy, but if wasn't by the game much reduced price i don't think it would had a chance. =P
Click to expand...

What do you think changed in December that would have affected sales like this if it didn't receive a standard Holiday discount?

What number were you thinking when you brought it up?
 
Y

Yurikerr

This post isn't by me, it's by a guy with the same username as me.
cartographer said:
What do you think changed in December that would have affected sales like this if it didn't receive a standard Holiday discount?

What number were you thinking when you brought it up?
Click to expand...

I was thinking that the sports games that charted below it (madden, fifa and nba) had a chance to sell more copies this month as BF is a mp only game (a kind that tends to drop drastically) and was heavily bundled with ps4.

And the december games had a chance too (RB Siege and JC 3).

I was thinking about it charting at 6 or 7 without the bundles included.

But i didn't take into account multiple factors as:

-The reduced price
-The movie hype
-The data that Cosmic posted about 60% of games launching in november and maintaining or selling more copies in december.

As i said, was a stupid post. hehe
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
Ryng_Tolu said:
Lucina VS Tharja... i seriusly don't know.

They are my two waifu, i don't know who choose! :(

tumblr_niouy1RyrU1sgurego3_r1_400.png
tumblr_nios6ln2rU1sgurego1_400.png


Maybe i should use an Inkling avatar :p
Click to expand...

I... might be anime - racist. I thought they were the same character until you pointed it out...
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Trust me said:
I... might be anime - racist. I thought they were the same character until you pointed it out...
Click to expand...

The best part is that i don't like anime. lol. I only love the style ;)

And indeed, my avatars are never from anime. Always videogames with anime style. ;P
 
C

crinale

Member
Ryng_Tolu said:
5.7 million include Black Friday sales.

We know XB1 has sold > 750k in black Friday week in US alone, and PS4 was probabily a bit over that...

PS4 is < 5 million in December. Most likely < 4.5 million, since i see 1.5 million during Black Friday week (worldwide) very likely.
Click to expand...

Oh that's right. Maybe 1.5million is more applicable number.
 
D

donny2112

Member
CosmicQueso said:
I propose NPD threads become waifu-free zones. For everyone's sanity.
Click to expand...

But then I wouldn't have found out that so many people haven't played Fire Emblem: Awakening and can't tell Tharja (crazy, obsessive witch who wears provocative clothing) from Lucina (kind, caring, self-effacing future daughter of the current prince Chrom). This is an injustice that must be dealt with! More Fire Emblem talk!

To provide further clarification of just how different these two characters are, they both had detailed figures made of them. Here's Tharja's (crazy, obsessive witch). And here's Lucina's (kind, caring royalty). Very different people here.

Seriously, if this had come up in an FE topic, there would've been no confusion. You can only realize how niche your knowledge is by exposing it outside of the niche your knowledge comes from. Sort of like you talking sales outside of NPD topics and realizing those people out there have no idea!


[PS4] 1625K
[XB1] 1350K
[3DS] 560K
[WIU] 500K
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
donny2112 said:
But then I wouldn't have found out that so many people haven't played Fire Emblem: Awakening and can't tell Tharja (crazy, obsessive witch who wears provocative clothing) from Lucina (kind, caring, self-effacing future daughter of the current prince Chrom). This is an injustice that must be dealt with! More Fire Emblem talk!

To provide further clarification of just how different these two characters are, they both had detailed figures made of them. Here's Tharja's (crazy, obsessive witch). And here's Lucina's (kind, caring royalty). Very different people here.
Click to expand...
Okay, when looking at those pics, it's simpler then just the close up.
You can easily tell apart the nice from the nasty ones.
Nice people read books, nasty ones have weapons.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Tharja is PS4 and Lucina is the XB1.

Sorry, but it's a truthfact. Lucina probably took a slot away from my boy Hector in Smash.
LLShC.gif


slavesnyder said:
What if MS changes it's metric from MAUs to Waifus?
Click to expand...

It wouldn't make much sense. They're seriously lacking in that (important) department. Cortana can only do so much.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Primethius said:
Ouch. $399 is my upper limit and I'm there day one.

Hopefully PS VR isn't super expensive, as that's the one I'm most interested to try out.
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As Sony will make money with software and VR will push consoles, they would be stupid to make it too expensive.
399$ max I'd say.
Does Oculus get revenues from games using their tech?
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
slavesnyder said:
Oculus Rift is 599$.

For the second time since the XboxOne price reveal people at Sony's might have a good laugh.
Click to expand...

What the hell were they thinking with that price?!? That's absurd. We are talking about a peripheral. You still need a crazy expensive rig to run the damn thing on top of this. Absolutely insane. I hope they don't think they are actually going to sell any sizable amount of units with a price tag that high.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
RexNovis said:
What the hell were they thinking with that price?!? That's absurd. We are talking about a peripheral. You still need a crazy expensive rig to run the damn thing on top of this. Absolutely insane. I hope they don't think they are actually going to sell any sizable amount of units with a price tag that high.
Click to expand...

I think we assumed this would be a "version one" thing that they upgrade and release a newer cheaper one every one or two years, but given the price tag, I'm guessing this is the gen 2/3 type specs that they hope will last the rest of this generation and they can make cheaper over time. I really hope PSVR is a little lighter on the wallet, but I can understand why 600USD makes sense for facebook.

Edit: I should say, PSVR will be cheaper (almost no way not too) but I think what is and isn't expensive for their audience is quite different. No one will buy PSVR at 500USD, but I think people would have bought rift at that. I think 350 is the happy number for PSVR, but 450USD would be as damning as rift's 600USD.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
slavesnyder said:
As Sony will make money with software and VR will push consoles, they would be stupid to make it too expensive.
399$ max I'd say.
Does Oculus get revenues from games using their tech?
Click to expand...

I'm not to familiar with how they are all srtup but I would assume not simply based on the relatively open nature of their ecosystem.
 
P

PanicFreak

Member
slavesnyder said:
Oculus Rift is 599$.

For the second time since the XboxOne price reveal people at Sony's might have a good laugh.
Click to expand...

I expect that the PSVR will be more expensive than the Rift in relation to the machine you need to run it well. 600 for a device that will really only work on extremely high end machines is a pretty good deal. It may be tougher to sell a device that's costs the same as the machine that runs it.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
donny2112 said:
But then I wouldn't have found out that so many people haven't played Fire Emblem: Awakening and can't tell Tharja (crazy, obsessive witch who wears provocative clothing) from Lucina (kind, caring, self-effacing future daughter of the current prince Chrom). This is an injustice that must be dealt with! More Fire Emblem talk!

To provide further clarification of just how different these two characters are, they both had detailed figures made of them. Here's Tharja's (crazy, obsessive witch). And here's Lucina's (kind, caring royalty). Very different people here.

Seriously, if this had come up in an FE topic, there would've been no confusion. You can only realize how niche your knowledge is by exposing it outside of the niche your knowledge comes from. Sort of like you talking sales outside of NPD topics and realizing those people out there have no idea!


[PS4] 1625K
[XB1] 1350K
[3DS] 560K
[WIU] 500K
Click to expand...

In my defense, his avatars were just their faces. If they were these fully body shots... I would be able to tell them apart much easier^^
 
S

serversurfer

Member
PanicFreak said:
I expect that the PSVR will be more expensive than the Rift in relation to the machine you need to run it well. 600 for a device that will really only work on extremely high end machines is a pretty good deal. It may be tougher to sell a device that's costs the same as the machine that runs it.
Click to expand...
"$600??"
"Sure, it doesn't sound like much, but with PSVR that's gonna get you the console too, whereas with Rift, you're gonna get to spend double that again on a new PC!!"

Yeah, I could see that working on some people.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
slavesnyder said:
Oculus Rift is 599$.

For the second time since the XboxOne price reveal people at Sony's might have a good laugh.
Click to expand...

I don't know if Oculus Rift expensive price is so relevant for Sony since is for PC. It's a competitor of PSVR only until a certain point.

If was a direct competition between Playstation and Xbox , the situation would be different.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
When the "Oculus Rift price announced" thread is simply too dangerous to voice your opinions on how expensive it really is as you can get shot down by someone who spent $1000 on their PC, you come back to the good old NPD thread instead. :p

But yeah, seriously, what the hell are they thinking with that $599 price tag? Are they not learning from the PS3's disastrous launch? Furthermore, the PS3 is a console, the Oculus Rift is only a peripheral. I don't think anyone is gonna buy it aside from the high end tech enthusiasts. Honestly, this is Sony's time to shine with pricing again. The PSVR should be no more than $399, I personally think it should launch at $349, but $299 is definitely the sweet spot for the mainstream.
 
P

PanicFreak

Member
serversurfer said:
"$600??"
"Sure, it doesn't sound like much, but with PSVR that's gonna get you the console too, whereas with Rift, you're gonna get to spend double that again on a new PC!!"

Yeah, I could see that working on some people.
Click to expand...

The problem with that thinking is that you have to assume that the people interested in a first gen rift already have the PC capable to run it, or were planning on upgrading their PC anyway. So for them, the choice boils down to "do I get a headset for my killer PC or do I settle for a PSVR headset that will not have the same capabilities?"

I don't think people in that market will settle for a lesser experience. Ultimately, I think the consumer for the first gen Rift and the PSVR will be different consumers and I'm not sure that it will be easier for Sony to sell the PSVR to its consumer than it will be for Oculus to sell the Rift to its consumers.
 
S

spiderman0616

Member
PanicFreak said:
The problem with that thinking is that you have to assume that the people interested in a first gen rift already have the PC capable to run it, or were planning on upgrading their PC anyway. So for them, the choice boils down to "do I get a headset for my killer PC or do I settle for a PSVR headset that will not have the same capabilities?"

I don't think people in that market will settle for a lesser experience. Ultimately, I think the consumer for the first gen Rift and the PSVR will be different consumers and I'm not sure that it will be easier for Sony to sell the PSVR to its consumer than it will be for Oculus to sell the Rift to its consumers.
Click to expand...

Back when I was a PC gamer only, I always expected to pay top dollar for everything if I wanted the very best experience, and budgeted for my new hardware as such. I think a lot of PC gamers do that. Back in the days before I had children, I once paid $600 for a state of the art Nvidia graphics card.

But Sony once again finds themselves in the position of being able to watch their competitors mess up their messaging and pricing and is now in the driver's seat.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
spiderman0616 said:
Back when I was a PC gamer only, I always expected to pay top dollar for everything if I wanted the very best experience, and budgeted for my new hardware as such. I think a lot of PC gamers do that. Back in the days before I had children, I once paid $600 for a state of the art Nvidia graphics card.
Click to expand...

everyone out there without kids: Listen to this bunny!
 
P

Primethius

Banned
spiderman0616 said:
Back when I was a PC gamer only, I always expected to pay top dollar for everything if I wanted the very best experience, and budgeted for my new hardware as such. I think a lot of PC gamers do that. Back in the days before I had children, I once paid $600 for a state of the art Nvidia graphics card.

But Sony once again finds themselves in the position of being able to watch their competitors mess up their messaging and pricing and is now in the driver's seat.
Click to expand...

I don't know. I paid roughly $600-700 for my GPU. But I wouldn't drop $600 on VR. The actual value of the product differs too greatly. A 980Ti can do so much more for me.

I suppose it depends on what games/products come out for the Occulus Rift. Because honestly, I do think price matters, even for PC folks. If Sony came out with PSVR for $300-400 and it was PC compatible or was hacked to be PC compatible, it would run circles around the Rift.
 
B

Blanquito

Member
I don't want to make a new thread (and I don't think anyone should because it's just a rumor and there's no evidence... though I am king of no man/woman), but I thought that the somewhat calmer and rational people in this thread would appreciate this:

According to one source of Mary Jo Foley on this weeks Windows Weekly in regard to Windows 10 activations. 18 million of 200 million Windows activations were Xbox Ones. She couldn't verify it with another source however.

For those that don't know Mary Jo Foley is one of the top Microsoft news writers.
Click to expand...

https://www.reddit.com/r/xboxone/comments/3zy8t9/18_million_xbox_ones_sold/

Like I said, it's a rumor, so not a big deal. Seems to be around what we're thinking for XB1 as well.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Blanquito said:
I don't want to make a new thread (and I don't think anyone should because it's just a rumor and there's no evidence... though I am king of no man/woman), but I thought that the somewhat calmer and rational people in this thread would appreciate this:



https://www.reddit.com/r/xboxone/comments/3zy8t9/18_million_xbox_ones_sold/

Like I said, it's a rumor, so not a big deal. Seems to be around what we're thinking for XB1 as well.
Click to expand...

Apparently it's from CES? Also if that were the case, I think that would be a minimum for hardware (if this is true), as not all Xbox One's would've been updated to W10.

This article just states the number includes Xbox One and give clarification to the "active" install base for W10

Update: A company spoksperson confirmed the 200 million figure includes Xbox One consoles. And "active" means Windows 10 devices that have been "active" in the last 28 days, the spokesperson said.
Click to expand...
 
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