72%.US+UK should be 13mil how many % is that of 18mil?
People have issues that the xbnox is being outsold by the ps4 by 2 to 1? I mean peoplea re upset the xbox has hit 18 million, potentailly?
US+UK should be 13mil how many % is that of 18mil?
In short, i believe that, XB1 should be more close to 2.5 million than 2 million. I also believe that PS4 is super close to 3 million, and i'm sure it will be annunced very soon...
well, we'll see.
If Xbone is close to 2.5 million, than PS4 is way above 3 million. Wasn't there a news about PS4 was the best selling console during black friday last year?
Yes, PS4 was the best selling console of last year, but by only 5,000 unit.
Honestly, like i said, i'm surprised there isn't still the > 3 million PS4 annunced in UK, that's why i said is for sure super close to those numbers. I think there is a very strong chance for happen by end of January.
If PS4 is still < 3 million by end of this month, there is some of wrong.
EDIT :there was. During July last year.
http://www.videogamer.com/news/ps4_..._console_in_the_uk_every_month_this_year.html
And according to PAL charts during holiday 2015 and position of Uncharted collection, NDC bundle sold gangbusters.
And i know that we wrote here before that after PS4's 2 million announcement, Xbone was around 1.5 million. And there is no way that Xbone is close to 2.5 million and PS4 super close to 3 million. That means that Xbone sold at higher rate than PS4 and it's the opposite of "PS4 best selling console in UK every month" link, opposite of Nathan Drake position in PAL charts.
Back when I was a PC gamer only...I once paid $600 for a state of the art Nvidia graphics card.
.
A console is only truly "dead" when packaged software stops being published in support of that console.
Agree totally. Still didn't stop me from getting repeatedly shat upon in mediacreate threads when contradicting vita-is-dead grave dancers, lol.
In conclusion, i know the final part is more like a speculation, but if i should be honest, like i said, XB1 is more close to 2.5m than 2m in my opinion. i don't say IS AT 2.5m, but should be close to this.
And yeah, PS4 should be super close to 3m as well.
I have a question.
Does the Xbox One still require the mandatory update when bought?
I had one for Christmas and I had to do an update for it, which makes me think that it might still be in effect. If so the number of activated Xbox One should be pretty close to the number of consoles sold.
I share this line of thinking.Apparently so.
18 million consoles activated over the Christmas/Holiday season doesn't mean that all Xbox One's bought were in use/connected online over a 28 period. Not saying that this would increase the number by 2-3 million, but something like 5-7% of consoles fitting that criteria does not seem outlandish.
I share this line of thinking.
But, theoretically, is there a posibility a console is counted twice in these 28 days? Re-sold or two accounts on one box?
Okay, so it's not the number of IDs they are counting.One Xbox would only be counted once. All the statistic is that 18 million Xbox One's connected to the internet at least once in the 28 days span. Activating more than once in that 28 day span would be retention rate, I guess.
All the statistic is that 18 million Xbox One's connected to the internet at least once in the 28 days span.
The problem is that it is a rumor, not a statistic. Microsoft hasn't given any numbers, just an analyst giving second hand rounded numbers from a supposed insider. Cboat also works at Microsoft and he said things like 7-10k.
To be fair I'm not putting a lot of thrust in this 18m rumor because for me I disagree that outside US accounts for anything close to 50% of Xbone sales.I posted this back in the PS4 sales thread, and got no response there, and brought it up in the 18 million Xbox One thread, and no response there. I hope people are actually seeing the post because I would like to know if there is something wrong with how I approached some of the ROTW, and would like to see counter arguments for it.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=191344827&postcount=1115
Also in that post I just realized that even then the US:ROTW ratio (from the original launch countries) still grows in the US's favor slightly, so I would appreciate some type of rebuttal.
To be fair I'm not putting a lot of thrust in this 18m rumor because for me I disagree that outside US accounts for anything close to 50% of Xbone sales.
No big country in EU or Japam support these numbers.
I hope GFK release some 2015 number for us until end of January.
And I'm waiting NPD December before try to make estimates... 1.5m can make me start to believe in these 18m.
You and I had talked about that stuff previously at some length, and I thought we determined that our non-US indicators pointed almost invariably down. UK was still up a bit against the US as of late June '15, but that actually indicated much weaker performance than the US from Holiday '14 up to that point, as it had previously been much further ahead of the US pace.I posted this back in the PS4 sales thread, and got no response there, and brought it up in the 18 million Xbox One thread, and no response there. I hope people are actually seeing the post because I would like to know if there is something wrong with how I approached some of the ROTW, and would like to see counter arguments for it.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=191344827&postcount=1115
Also in that post I just realized that even then the US:ROTW ratio (from the original launch countries) still grows in the US's favor slightly, so I would appreciate some type of rebuttal.
You and I had talked about that stuff previously at some length, and I thought we determined that our non-US indicators pointed almost invariably down. UK was still up a bit against the US as of late June '15, but that actually indicated much weaker performance than the US from Holiday '14 up to that point, as it had previously been much further ahead of the US pace.
I'm not really sure what sort of rebuttal you're looking for, since it seems like your conclusion is, "Could be a lot or a little, depending on how not-US is doing." As we discussed previously, not-US indicators seem to be down, but you don't seem to take a position either way here, so are you just looking for approval of the methodology? =/
Welfare, what is Xbox One's LTD in Japan currently?
With 11 million sold in USA, it doesn't need nothing close to 50% of US sales for be at 18m.
With 60% USA sales, you have 18.33 million worldwide, for example.
But right now it's assumptions on top of assumptions and rumors, built on assumed ratios between US and RotW.
Before making these kinds of calculations, we should all wait until next Thursday, at least
Note that I'm not disagreeing that the XB1 could very well be at 11m in the US right now, if not more (as of Nov 30th, it was around 9.7m), but it's a lot of guesswork piling on top of guesswork at this point in my opinion, so we should all be very careful about how we present data...
One post above you says it~65k
LOLNo, it's only 63,891. What a XBOX fanboy, trying to say XB1 sales are bigger than what they are.![]()
But remember, our other snapshot wasn't the total of 2014, but rather just before the holiday sales really took off. That was the holiday that Bone really took off in the US, and the June 2015 snapshot of the UK indicates it didn't match that change in momentum, and while it still retained a bit of the lead it had built up Jan14-Nov14, it was losing serious ground Dec14-June15. Since we've no indication of a re-reversal there, the safer assumption is that US continues to outpace UK, and UK has now surrendered its early lead. Again, it's entirely possible the downward trend in UK no longer applies, but we've no evidence for that.I'm wondering how it is unlikely that the Xbox One is not over 18 million at the least. Just because a country like the UK was selling slower compared to the US early in the year does not mean it sold less than what it did in the total of 2014 (sold more in BF week in 2015 compared to 2014 as an example),
Even if you don't feel that Mighty UK now being well off the US pace serves as a strong indicator that things are worse still elsewhere, we already saw that France was significantly off the US pace as early as the end of 2014, and Spain was piss poor at sustaining its launch momentum. So again, downward indicators, with nothing to indicate reversal.and there is no data to suggest that countries like Germany and France are slowing down compared to what they did in 2014 as well.
Sorry, but I've never heard of that site, and I don't read Mandarin? Anyway, does it say Bone sold 71k in China and PS4 sold 73k? If so, I'm pretty dubious, given all of the other reports we've gotten from China indicate PS4 is selling much better there, not like 3% better. =/Including tier 2 countries is incredibly tricky to do, because the only one we have clear data is Japan at ~65k, and China is muddy, but was apparently >70k early in 2015.
You do realize there's a fairly sizable gorge between 0 and 860,000, yes? And while I agree that Japan is a shadow of its former self, it's still one of the most significant video game markets in the world, so no, I don't think it's at all safe to assume that each of these 26 faceless wonders bought half as many consoles as Japan did.The Xbox One launched in 28 countries (Tier 2) back in September 2014. Japan and China were 2 of those, and at a minimum combined those 2 did >135k by the end of 2015, so WW the minimum should >17.5m.
Assuming those 26 other countries sold less Xbox One's than Japan (setting a minimum, so let's say those 26 countries all sold 50% of what Japan has done so far, which ~33k), that's an additional 860k sold over the course of 16 months in 26 countries.
I don't want to assume that you think the Xbox One has sold 0 units in the Tier 2 countries (in fact I know you don't since you think it's a strawman) but this is when you have to decide whether you want to think that a country that gives 0 fucks about the Xbox brand and at the same time it's dedicated console market is dying will actually sell much more Xbox One's than the other 26 countries in Tier 2, or that tier 2 countries are in fact selling Xbox One's, and because of that and how much time has passed since launch (16 months/2 holiday periods) the Xbox One should be well over 18 million units sold.
Hey, isn't that my argument?But joking aside, it's going to take months for it to even get to 70k so it doesn't matter.
Are you referring to the ratio of sales between the US:UK? I had already agreed with you that yes, the UK has slowed down when looking to June 2015. This was because of the fact that the Xbox One had serious sales in November 2014, and the UK was a price war between the Xbox One and PS4. I then took the discussion of not the ratio between the US:UK, but how the UK would be performing to what it did in 2014 to what it would be doing in 2015. That was the point of the post I linked to. Trying to find a minimum of what the Xbox One would be WW.But remember, our other snapshot wasn't the total of 2014, but rather just before the holiday sales really took off. That was the holiday that Bone really took off in the US, and the June 2015 snapshot of the UK indicates it didn't match that change in momentum, and while it still retained a bit of the lead it had built up Jan14-Nov14, it was losing serious ground Dec14-June15. Since we've no indication of a re-reversal there, the safer assumption is that US continues to outpace UK, and UK has now surrendered its early lead. Again, it's entirely possible the downward trend in UK no longer applies, but we've no evidence for that.
DId I miss something or are you mistaken?Even if you don't feel that Mighty UK now being well off the US pace serves as a strong indicator that things are worse still elsewhere, we already saw that France was significantly off the US pace as early as the end of 2014, and Spain was piss poor at sustaining its launch momentum. So again, downward indicators, with nothing to indicate reversal.
That was as of the end of April. So 8 months of Xbox One sales and I believe just 1 month for the PS4.Sorry, but I've never heard of that site, and I don't read … Mandarin? Anyway, does it say Bone sold 71k in China and PS4 sold 73k? If so, I'm pretty dubious, given all of the other reports we've gotten from China indicate PS4 is selling much better there, not like 3% better. =/
You do realize there's a fairly sizable gorge between 0 and 860,000, yes? And while I agree that Japan is a shadow of its former self, it's still one of the most significant video game markets in the world, so no, I don't think it's at all safe to assume that each of these 26 faceless wonders bought half as many consoles as Japan did.
I should also point out that you're actually employing the strawman argument here. "Having already conceded that sales>0, then by extension you must also concede sales>860,000, and consoles are dad in Japan, so Bone must be doing comparatively well in Slovakia," but I don't need to concede anything of the sort, because the only significance of the 860k figure is that it's a value you found in your ass that happened to do a nice job of supporting your argument and there's no reason to think that Slovakia will step up in support of the Bone, even if Japan failed to do so. So you see why strawmen aren't really considered a valid form of debate.
Hey, isn't that my argument?![]()
Vince Ingenito from IGN is great, but yikes...just listened to his prediction for sales in 2016 on the most recent GameScoop. He thinks the Xbox One is going to close the gap a lot in 2016 (though not all the way). One of the other guys on the panel was agreeing too. It's interesting to me sometimes to see how out of touch people in the industry can be in terms of sales. One of Vince's arguments is that PS4 had a weak 2015 with exclusives and Xbox One has been righting the ship (I personally actually preferred PS4's lineup). This makes no sense since you should be looking at the 2016 lineup when predicting the sales, if exclusives even do matter much.
closing the gap because of exclusives? That people still ride the big exclusive argument when things like destiny and battlefront bundle, etc show that it doesn't matter anymore like it did back then.
Let's just say exclusive moved console, but what exclusive bigger than main line Halo on Xbox one?
If Halo 5 didn't close the gap, what will? Couple of new IP and indies?
Vince Ingenito from IGN is great, but yikes...just listened to his prediction for sales in 2016 on the most recent GameScoop. He thinks the Xbox One is going to close the gap a lot in 2016 (though not all the way). One of the other guys on the panel was agreeing too. It's interesting to me sometimes to see how out of touch people in the industry can be in terms of sales. One of Vince's arguments is that PS4 had a weak 2015 with exclusives and Xbox One has been righting the ship (I personally actually preferred PS4's lineup). This makes no sense since you should be looking at the 2016 lineup when predicting the sales, if exclusives even do matter much.
getting a six month timed exclusive CoD, AC or GTA6 is what would really shake things but even MS "bottomless warchest" would get empty for the price Activision would demand.
getting a six month timed exclusive CoD, AC or GTA6 is what would really shake things but even MS "bottomless warchest" would get empty for the price Activision would demand.
Vince Ingenito from IGN is great, but yikes...just listened to his prediction for sales in 2016 on the most recent GameScoop. He thinks the Xbox One is going to close the gap a lot in 2016 (though not all the way). One of the other guys on the panel was agreeing too. It's interesting to me sometimes to see how out of touch people in the industry can be in terms of sales. One of Vince's arguments is that PS4 had a weak 2015 with exclusives and Xbox One has been righting the ship (I personally actually preferred PS4's lineup). This makes no sense since you should be looking at the 2016 lineup when predicting the sales, if exclusives even do matter much.
They are stuck with a US mentality.
But it's surprising they believe exclusive games regularly move hardware.
It's common knowledge 3rd party is king there.
They are stuck with a US mentality.
Vince Ingenito from IGN is great, but yikes...just listened to his prediction for sales in 2016 on the most recent GameScoop. He thinks the Xbox One is going to close the gap a lot in 2016 (though not all the way). One of the other guys on the panel was agreeing too. It's interesting to me sometimes to see how out of touch people in the industry can be in terms of sales. One of Vince's arguments is that PS4 had a weak 2015 with exclusives and Xbox One has been righting the ship (I personally actually preferred PS4's lineup). This makes no sense since you should be looking at the 2016 lineup when predicting the sales, if exclusives even do matter much.
Vince Ingenito from IGN is great, but yikes...just listened to his prediction for sales in 2016 on the most recent GameScoop. He thinks the Xbox One is going to close the gap a lot in 2016 (though not all the way). One of the other guys on the panel was agreeing too. It's interesting to me sometimes to see how out of touch people in the industry can be in terms of sales. One of Vince's arguments is that PS4 had a weak 2015 with exclusives and Xbox One has been righting the ship (I personally actually preferred PS4's lineup). This makes no sense since you should be looking at the 2016 lineup when predicting the sales, if exclusives even do matter much.
I doubt MS would give the Xbox Division access to a "bottomless warchest" just for another timed exclusive. Last one bite them in the bottom.
Their new focus on exclusive titles benefit the platform as a whole better in the end anyways.