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December 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 12th

Welfare

Welfare

Member
Death2494 said:
If it was ~15M as the end of September, then I don't think they moved 5M in one quarter. I'm not too sure about that 15M number though, it may be higher. Maybe Welfare or someone can help me out with it. But sales aside, they did have a stacked exclusive line-up this year.
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Shipped? It would be closer to 16 million at the end of September for the fact that that is when they would have start the shipping of the Lego, Holiday, Kinect, and Halo bundles.

I would assume that MS would overship/attempt to ship more consoles than last year, so ~20m units shipped at the end of 2015 is possible.

Conduit said:
Just no! Xbone simply can't be at 20 mil. That's not possible. Last year PS4 outsold Xbone troughout the whole year WW ( or better to say average per month ). Gap must be 2:1 right now.
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It does not have to be 2:1 and it is entirely possible the Xbox One is at or around 20 million shipped.
 
R

Raylan

Banned
Welfare said:
Tomb Raider over 1m is impressive.
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Again, it clearly isn't. These numbers are poor actually. So nothing changed.
Shipping over 1 million copies (+ counting digital sales as it seems) on XBO and Xbox 360 for a Tomb Raider game..... during holiday season? Nah, man. These numbers are still poor.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Raylan said:
Again, it clearly isn't. These numbers are poor actually. So nothing changed.
Shipping over 1 million copies (+ counting digital sales as it seems) on XBO and Xbox 360 for a Tomb Raider game..... during holiday season? Nah, man. These numbers are still poor.
Click to expand...

I keep forgetting this game is also on the 360.
 
C

Conduit

Banned
Welfare said:
Sold through? Possible, however I think it will be definitively 2:1 after March 2016.
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After March 2016 probably will be 2.1 or 2.2 : 1.

Since the MS's announcement that they will only report MAU, PS4 was already then almost 2 : 1 sold-trough. Now after holiday 2015, i think it is. Definitely.
 
The Mad Draklor

The Mad Draklor

Member
Raylan said:
Again, it clearly isn't. These numbers are poor actually. So nothing changed.
Shipping over 1 million copies (+ counting digital sales as it seems) on XBO and Xbox 360 for a Tomb Raider game..... during holiday season? Nah, man. These numbers are still poor.
Click to expand...

The game was also discounted to $40, which is quite early for a game that just came out mid-November.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Assuming XB1 is > 11m LT this in USA including December, i think should be >18m WW.

I believe PS4 will ship 38.30m, and will sell 36.50m, so yeah i can see PS4 over 2:1 with XB1.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Yurikerr said:
I know that the number is worlwide. But looking at the numbers that we got 1 million still seems like high for the game.

November
US: 200K
UK: <70K (2 weeks)

I can see the final sales being like ~100K in UK
Click to expand...

Yeah no...Bruno MB can you post its sales in the UK real quick?
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Obliterator said:
Rise of the Tomb Raider doing a million is not impressive. Its nowhere even near the Reboot
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I agree that isn't impressive but is better than some estimates that people was doing.

1 million is decent considering the bad timing of the launch and being exclusive of Xbox, a platform less favorable for the game.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Noobie, are you still out there? Would you mind sharing your thoughts on the MS announcement today regarding 1m units sold of the software titles?
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Tubie said:
The numbers on that site are 100% made up.
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Apparently not the UK software numbers? I think Bruno brought it up in a PAL thread once where their software is either them taking the numbers from GAF (95%) and making it 100%, or they have access to those.
 
3

3rdamention

Member
ThoughtsOfSpeaking said:
Not that I have a horse in this race but, the whole point of reserving points is that so people can have a place on the first page where their predictions will actual be seen and in turn will have more chance of being discussed.

I think its a bit unfair to compare that to youtube comments as the posts of this thread will always be updated dependant what new information comes out during the prediction period.

Also this "please ban thing I dont like" attitude is pretty shitty. Its hardly an epidemic across the site and its something a handful of posters do.
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In the many many NPD threads I have been a part of, I hardly ever see anyone discussing other users' numbers. They may say "hey fix that format or your numbers wont count" or something like "hey, did you really mean that PS4 will sell 23 million this month?"


But in these prediction threads, there is not a lot of quoting and discussing the predictions of users. So reserving posts doesn't mean you are getting numbers on the first page so people will discuss them. Most people dont have their numbers on the first page for days, they just say "Reserved for later numbers" and by the time they post them, nobody is reading the first page anymore anyways.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Thanks to you, Xbox One continues to outpace Xbox 360 at the same point in time in the Xbox 360 generation, making it the best-selling console in Xbox console history.
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Even if this is only NPD, this just means that XB1 sold greater than -600K in December. Congratulations?
 
Z

Zeuanimals

Member
Raylan said:
Again, it clearly isn't. These numbers are poor actually. So nothing changed.
Shipping over 1 million copies (+ counting digital sales as it seems) on XBO and Xbox 360 for a Tomb Raider game..... during holiday season? Nah, man. These numbers are still poor.
Click to expand...

Let's be honest though, it probably did next to nothing on the 360.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
With 2016 starting, I wonder what will be the story for Xbox for this year?
So far, I can't think of much to keep the console in the discussion.

For PS4 we have VR as the huge theme, that will be pushed and talked about massively.
plus a lot of special games that are worth stories like Uncharted, Last Guardian or Dreams (maybe Persona, Gran Turismo, and so on).
Maybe those are not even all good, but they are special. Same goes for VR. It might not be the second coming, but it will be all over the media.
Media coverage is advertising "for free" and should push consoles.

But what are we expecting for XboxOne?
So far I can only think of price drops, Gears and maybe a slim version. And all these are not really sexy stories.

MS might be in danger to become pale this year in my opinion.
If NX will be announced and is any good and exciting, there will be even less spotlight for xbox.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Now, now, now, now... Imagine if Tomb Raider will chart in December NPD... !!!!! :p :p :p

esplosione-nucleare-gif-animata.gif
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Dear Tim,

thank you for asking Aaron about the sell-in/sell-through.
Could you also please ask if the numbers are US or WW?

Thanks a lot
Yours
some people on sites
 
P

PanicFreak

Member
slavesnyder said:
With 2016 starting, I wonder what will be the story for Xbox for this year?
So far, I can't think of much to keep the console in the discussion.

For PS4 we have VR as the huge theme, that will be pushed and talked about massively.
plus a lot of special games that are worth stories like Uncharted, Last Guardian or Dreams (maybe Persona, Gran Turismo, and so on).
Maybe those are not even all good, but they are special. Same goes for VR. It might not be the second coming, but it will be all over the media.
Media coverage is advertising "for free" and should push consoles.

But what are we expecting for XboxOne?
So far I can only think of price drops, Gears and maybe a slim version. And all these are not really sexy stories.

MS might be in danger to become pale this year in my opinion.
If NX will be announced and is any good and exciting, there will be even less spotlight for xbox.
Click to expand...

Games. Same as ever. The only difference is that Microsoft is releasing some new IPs next year. The success of which will hinge on their reviews so "hype levels" will be limited.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
PanicFreak said:
Games. Same as ever. The only difference is that Microsoft is releasing some new IPs next year. The success of which will hinge on their reviews so "hype levels" will be limited.
Click to expand...
Okay, but what IPs are we talking about?
Scalebound is 2017.
Cuphead looks phantastic, but I think it would not even be a retail release, so in the same bag as witness or tomorrow children.
All I can see so far that really has a punch is Gears.
Maybe the Pirate game from Rare?

Edit: forgot Quantum Break.
 
GribbleGrunger

GribbleGrunger

Dreams in Digital
donny2112 said:
Doesn't make sense to me, either, but this link says that day after Christmas is a bigger traffic day than Black Friday whilst being a lower sales day. That makes much more sense to me. Day after Christmas is the biggest returns day and combined with clearance Christmas stuff, makes sense that traffic numbers would be super high that day. According to the link, the Saturday before Christmas is the biggest sales day of the year, but that's at least partially due to Black Friday now having a lot of its sales pushed into Thursday. Would be good to see total spend numbers for Thanksgiving+Black Friday compared to any other 2-day period in the year, then!
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Yeah, makes sense, and didn't that insider guy say something about a lot of people cashing in there gift cards?
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Ryng_Tolu said:
Assuming XB1 is > 11m LT this in USA including December, i think should be >18m WW.

I believe PS4 will ship 38.30m, and will sell 36.50m, so yeah i can see PS4 over 2:1 with XB1.
Click to expand...
Yep, this is my predictions as well. I wonder when Sony will release official info for sold through numbers. Also, remember your bet, man? :p
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Chobel's been waiting to do that. He's had that image ready to go for months. Just sitting there on his desktop as he rubbed his hands together waiting for the moment to pounce.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Chobel will be redeemed.

Ryng will get tagged for not eating the PS4.

2016 off to a great start for SalesGAF.
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Ryng_Tolu said:
What bet? If you talk about "i will eat my PS4 if will sell 8 million" this was not a bet. :p
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You know, you said that the PS4 won't outsell the figure XB1 did in holidays 2014, which was 2.52 million. For that to happen now, the PS4 would have to sell under a million. But you made an avatar bet with Elandyll. You and I just had a friendly bet. Don't remember? Check your PM's from a few months ago. :p
 
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