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December 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 12th

Delete reserved posts.
Ugh. Please don't. First, that's a bit too Orwellian for my tastes, but more practically, it breaks links.


These people can fucking die in a fire so I am trying to understand why we need people reserving deck chairs in a thread!
Maybe they think it's the tie-breaker? Or they don't realize a robot trolls the thread for predictions and are worried about getting missed? Or they're just way too excited?

Seems kinda goofy to me, but I don't see it as a big deal, personally. If it's an issue, I suppose we could start the prediction thread closer to the deadline, kinda like with OTs. There's always the results thread for discussion; we basically just bounce between them as it is. /shrug
 

allan-bh

Member
December is probably very similar to november in terms of gap between PS4-XBO. The doubt is how much sales increased compared to November.
 
These people can fucking die in a fire so I am trying to understand why we need people reserving deck chairs in a thread!
Please make a rule that stop people from reserving posts. It really adds nothing to the discussion and it is annoying as hell. People who reserve posts, seem to me, that they want to be the first to comment which very silly and childish to me, much like commenting first on a YouTube video, which is frowned upon on this forum iirc.
 
Please make a rule that stop people from reserving posts. It really adds nothing to the discussion and it is annoying as hell. People who reserve posts, seem to me, that they want to be the first to comment which very silly and childish to me, much like commenting first on a YouTube video, which is frowned upon on this forum iirc.

Not that I have a horse in this race but, the whole point of reserving points is that so people can have a place on the first page where their predictions will actual be seen and in turn will have more chance of being discussed.

I think its a bit unfair to compare that to youtube comments as the posts of this thread will always be updated dependant what new information comes out during the prediction period.

Also this "please ban thing I dont like" attitude is pretty shitty. Its hardly an epidemic across the site and its something a handful of posters do.
 
Not that I have a horse in this race but, the whole point of reserving points is that so people can have a place on the first page where their predictions will actual be seen and in turn will have more chance of being discussed.

Is that true though? By the time they add their numbers most people reading the thread would have moved way past the first page. So all they see is a page of "reserved" rather than numbers they could discuss.
 
Is that true though? By the time they add their numbers most people reading the thread would have moved way past the first page. So all they see is a page of "reserved" rather than numbers they could discuss.

But those people who are actively engaged with the thread to that extent will have read their subsquent posts so no need to revist the first page.

But people lurking, or opening the thread out of curiosity, or people unsure what prediction to make for themselves/want to see what "X" poster predicted, will probably turn to the first page.

Not everyone joins a discussion at the same point and primers are helpful.
 

joecanada

Member
But those people who are actively engaged with the thread to that extent will have read their subsquent posts so no need to revist the first page.

But people lurking, or opening the thread out of curiosity, or people unsure what prediction to make for themselves/want to see what "X" poster predicted, will probably turn to the first page.

Not everyone joins a discussion at the same point and primers are helpful.

It makes checking the first pages of the thread pointless unless you are checking close to npd because theres a whole page of nothing posts which add zero to the thread so more and more people just skip these pages anyway. I already know not to look at first pages of npd threads. They are all off topic posts that add nothing to the conversation if you want to get technical.
 

mo60

Member
Here is my first NPD prediction

[3DS] 500k
[PS4] 1650k
[WIU] 490k
[XB1] 1350k

May adjust this prediction a bit before the deadline.
 
Please make a rule that stop people from reserving posts.

Do we really need a rule for something which should be obvious in the first place? Also, yes, please.

Concerning the pool, my ego is to big to line up behind a towel. I throw them away or onto another chair or wherever, and if someone asks I tell them it was the pool boy who cleared up the place.
 
These people can fucking die in a fire so I am trying to understand why we need people reserving deck chairs in a thread!

Self-importance, fear their insights might get buried in a mega thread and nobody will remember them, scared their prediction will get missed in the collation of the results?

I don't know, but it's fucking annoying.
 

chadskin

Member
Greatest Games Line-Up in Xbox History Fuels Record Holiday, Extends to 2016

With the arrival of the New Xbox One Experience with Backward Compatibility and the most critically-acclaimed fall lineup of exclusives ever on Xbox*, you set new records for global engagement on Xbox Live this holiday. On Dec. 28 there were more gamers using Xbox Live than any other day in Xbox history, and the number of hours spent gaming on Xbox One and Xbox 360 during Christmas week 2015 were up compared to last year**. Thanks to you, Xbox One continues to outpace Xbox 360 at the same point in time in the Xbox 360 generation, making it the best-selling console in Xbox console history.

2015 was a monumental year for Xbox – the biggest in our history – and we owe it all to our gaming community. We saw record global engagement and sales fueled by high demand for our greatest games line-up and hardware and accessories like the best-selling Xbox One Gears of War: Ultimate Edition Bundle and our Elite Controller. Every title in our exclusive 2015 holiday games line-up – Halo 5: Guardians, Rise of the Tomb Raider, Forza Motorsport 6 and Gears of War: Ultimate Edition – sold over 1 million units, and the number of Xbox One gamers who played Microsoft Studios-published titles more than doubled compared to 2014.

Before we look to the year ahead, we want to share a quick snapshot of some other great things we accomplished together in 2015:
  • We released over 200 new features for gamers in 2015 including the New Xbox One Experience and the most-requested feature, Xbox One Backward Compatibility.
  • More than 350 games were released or were made playable on Xbox One in 2015 (including first and third-party, ID@Xbox and Xbox One Backward Compatibility titles), fueling progress toward our goal of delivering the largest games catalog ever on Xbox.
  • Xbox gamers earned over 4 billion achievements and racked up a total Gamerscore of over 77 billion in 2015.
  • In 2015, the Xbox community cast over 6.5 million votes on Xbox Feedback.
  • Since Xbox One Backward Compatibility released on Nov. 12 with more than 100 playable titles, global Xbox gamers have logged more than 15 million hours playing Xbox 360 games on Xbox One.
  • As Yusuf Mehdi shared today, we’ve seen strong engagement with the Xbox App on Windows 10 PCs, with over 6.6 million hours of Xbox One games streamed to Windows 10 PCs. And gaming continues to grow on Windows 10 – in 2015, gamers spent over 4 billion hours playing PC games on Windows 10. In the six months since Windows 10 launched, it has already become the second most popular OS for Steam players behind Windows 7***.
  • Minecraft is the number one grossing paid game in the Windows 10 store, a spot it has occupied since it launched in July 2015. Nearly 1 million Minecraft players have taken advantage of the offer to get the Windows 10 version free if you already own Minecraft for PC.
 

Yurikerr

This post isn't by me, it's by a guy with the same username as me.
This is the most interesting line in the statement IMO:

Every title in our exclusive 2015 holiday games line-up – Halo 5: Guardians, Rise of the Tomb Raider, Forza Motorsport 6 and Gears of War: Ultimate Edition – sold over 1 million units, and the number of Xbox One gamers who played Microsoft Studios-published titles more than doubled compared to 2014.
 

Welfare

Member
This is the most interesting line in the statement IMO:

Every title in our exclusive 2015 holiday games line-up – Halo 5: Guardians, Rise of the Tomb Raider, Forza Motorsport 6 and Gears of War: Ultimate Edition – sold over 1 million units, and the number of Xbox One gamers who played Microsoft Studios-published titles more than doubled compared to 2014.

Tomb Raider over 1m is impressive.
 

Somnia

Member
This is the most interesting line in the statement IMO:

Every title in our exclusive 2015 holiday games line-up – Halo 5: Guardians, Rise of the Tomb Raider, Forza Motorsport 6 and Gears of War: Ultimate Edition – sold over 1 million units, and the number of Xbox One gamers who played Microsoft Studios-published titles more than doubled compared to 2014.

By saying sold, I assume they mean actually sold. Obviously Gears hit it due to bundles and I assume due to bundles + digital (it apparently was a huge seller the last couple weeks digitally due to all the sales, pretty sure it was top of the seller list during that time) that Tomb Raider got there.
 

Yurikerr

This post isn't by me, it's by a guy with the same username as me.
Tomb Raider over 1m is impressive.

I would say that more than impressive it is surprising! =]

By saying sold, I assume they mean actually sold. Obviously Gears hit it due to bundles and I assume due to bundles + digital (it apparently was a huge seller the last couple weeks digitally due to all the sales, pretty sure it was top of the seller list during that time) that Tomb Raider got there.

The game must have sold a lot in December to get to 1 million. It did like 200k in the first NPD month, didn't it?

I would not be surprised if this "sold" is actually shipped (at least in ROTR). But, who knows.
 

foxbeldin

Member
I would say that more than impressive it is surprising! =]



The game must have sold a lot in December to get to 1 million. It did like 200k in the first NPD month, didn't it?

I would not be surprised if this "sold" is actually shipped (at least in ROTR). But, who knows.

It's 1M WW. It's a good number, but not for TR considering it sold at half price in december. Also, they're probably including digital as opposed to NPD.
So i'm not that surprised.
 

Welfare

Member
Someone make a thread for this?
Thanks to you, Xbox One continues to outpace Xbox 360 at the same point in time in the Xbox 360 generation, making it the best-selling console in Xbox console history.

Shipment wise, the 360 was at 17.7m at the end of 2007.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Seriusly, i wonder if XB1 has breaks 20 million shipments LT... i know MS don't release numbers anymore, but at least this annunce should be important.
 

Somnia

Member
I would say that more than impressive it is surprising! =]



The game must have sold a lot in December to get to 1 million. It did like 200k in the first NPD month, didn't it?

I would not be surprised if this "sold" is actually shipped (at least in ROTR). But, who knows.

I agree, but it's not impossible. It was $40 for most of December and I know for a fact the story I help out sold a lot more Tomb Raider in December than we did in November. Not saying it went UP month to month, but considering it's December who knows. We know it was #1 on the digital xb1 charts for over a week due to the sale price also.

Note: I would not doubt if it was shipped though.
 
I agree, but it's not impossible. It was $40 for most of December and I know for a fact the story I help out sold a lot more Tomb Raider in December than we did in November. Not saying it went UP month to month, but considering it's December who knows. We know it was #1 on the digital xb1 charts for over a week due to the sale price also.

Note: I would not doubt if it was shipped though.

It's worldwide I guess.
 

Yurikerr

This post isn't by me, it's by a guy with the same username as me.
It's 1M WW. It's a good number, but not for TR considering it sold at half price in december. Also, they're probably including digital as opposed to NPD.
So i'm not that surprised.

I know that the number is worlwide. But looking at the numbers that we got 1 million still seems like high for the game.

November
US: 200K
UK: <70K (2 weeks)

I can see the final sales being like ~100K in UK and ~100 ROTW. This gives us a total of 400K (200 US/100 UK/100 RTOW) physical. Let's add 20% digital and the November number is 480K, let's round it to 500K.

To reach 1MM the game need to double the launch month sales. It's not impossible (and Somnia remembered me that the game's price was slashed by 1/3 for most of the month), but isn't something that happens frequently.

But at the end of the day it's a poor situation that the game is at. It "only" reached 1 million sales and that's with the price slashed just 1 month after launch.
 

wapplew

Member
So, no mention of best selling console in the holiday in MS PR, save to say PS4 take the crown this time?
 

Yurikerr

This post isn't by me, it's by a guy with the same username as me.
~100 ROTW is a really really low estimate. Germany/France combined are probably higher than that by themselves.

But yeah, the game was 40$ most of december and it's a big month for gaming. Also there were deals with Forza6+TR=$60 iirc.

Yeah, i think that this number might be low. But looking at the Germany weekly charts it doesn't paint a good picture for ROTR.

The game only got in the top 20 in the first 2 weeks. And dropped hard in december.

Week 1 - 09
Week 2 - 16
Week 3 - 28
Week 4 (07/12) - 46
Week 5 - 53
Week 6 - 62
Week 7 - 86
 
Yeah, i think that this number might be low. But looking at the Germany weekly charts it doesn't paint a good picture for ROTR.

The game only got in the top 20 in the first 2 weeks. And dropped hard in december.

Week 1 - 09
Week 2 - 16
Week 3 - 28
Week 4 (07/12) - 46
Week 5 - 53
Week 6 - 62
Week 7 - 86

Tomb Raider should still have quite a good attach rate. It's not Lara's fault that there are so few machines sold in Germany to play the game.
 
So, no mention of best selling console in the holiday in MS PR, save to say PS4 take the crown this time?

Normally they should only have their own sales numbers for December. They will get Sony numbers on NPD day.
Maybe they will get some infos from different retail chains, but not the big picture, or?
 

Death2494

Member
Xbox One should be right now above 20m pretty easilly...

Ps4 at ~38m.

If it was ~15M as the end of September, then I don't think they moved 5M in one quarter. I'm not too sure about that 15M number though, it may be higher. Maybe Welfare or someone can help me out with it. But sales aside, they did have a stacked exclusive line-up this year.
 
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