• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

December 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 12th

R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Rymuth said:
So here are Amazon's Best Sellers for the year of 2015

Games
5. Super Mario Maker (Wii U)
6. Halo 5: Guardians (XB1)
Click to expand...

mj-laughing.gif


Chobel said:
I can bet confidently that PS4 won't beat PS2 :p
Click to expand...

PS4 > 2.75 million confirmed.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
So we do not only have 5 weeks counting, including final black friday weekend days, plus christmas/holiday and a long period of lowered console pricepoints.
Very tempting to go for high numbers / topping november.
 
A

anexanhume

Member
Culex said:
199 so only 1/3 less.
Click to expand...

It's not just a percentage that matters. Price points are mental hurdles. Remember when the 360 dropped to 199? It had a gigantic holiday. These consoles will move when they hit that price point. The $99 price point is probably gone for consoles, but maybe we'll see $150 some day for PS4 or XB1. PS2 did huge numbers at $129 and that's why it had so much staying power and stands where it is today.
 
M

mo60

Member
Ryng_Tolu said:
mj-laughing.gif




PS4 > 2.75 million confirmed.
Click to expand...

I think halo 5 guardians will outsell SMM worldwide including digital this year, but splatoon will beat both WW. In the US the order will be halo 5, splatoon and them SMM. In december I think both SMM and Splatoon will outsell Halo 5 in the US, but I may be wrong about this. Will probably make my prediction for hardware later, but I don't think the PS4 will sell over 2 million in the US in december.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
mo60 said:
I think halo 5 guardians will outsell SMM worldwide including digital this year, but splatoon will beat both WW. In the US the order will be halo 5, splatoon and them SMM. In december I think both SMM and Splatoon will outsell Halo 5 in the US, but I may be wrong about this. Will probably make my prediction for hardware later, but I don't think the PS4 will sell over 2 million in the US in december.
Click to expand...

I believe Mario Maker will sell more than Halo 5 worldwide, but not by a huge margin, they will be pretty close.
I also believe Halo 5 will sell more this year, but in the long time Mario Maker will have better legs.


My prediction:

Lifetime WW: Splatoon > Mario Maker > Halo 5
Lifetime USA: Halo 5 > Splatoon > Mario Maker

December WW: Splatoon > Mario Maker > Halo 5
December USA: Halo 5 > Splatoon > Mario Maker

DriftingSpirit said:
Nah, I don't see PS4 hitting 2 million. It will be somewhere between 1.5 and 2 million. 1.6-1.8 being the sweet spot.
Click to expand...

Yeah, seem about right. Imo, i think 1.7 million is already hard, but who know, never gonna bet again with PS4 after last month. :p
 
O

orochi91

Member
Bitch Pudding said:
I asume we saw a lot of PS4 advance sales in November, given it's latest price cut. Don't think it can keep up this momentum in December. If it does, it's truly a beast.
Click to expand...

Star Wars may have given it the boost it needs to either match or surpass Novembers performance.

Not to mention Cyber Monday and Christmas shopping week will have contributed a fair bit as well.

PS4 may possibly be ~3.2 million units sold, Nov & Dec combined.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
I wonder if the PS4 will be like the Wii was in 2008. An amazing November (2.04m) and then a mild December thanks to higher expectations (2.15m).

That's what I would (WOULD) bet on, but 2015 was the year of dreams, so anything is possible.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Whoa whoa lets keep things calm in here. People talking over 2 million lol, I'm not talking Wii levels here.

I just get the vibe the system killed it comparable to how these systems typically perform
 
K

Kyoufu

Member
Obliterator said:
Whoa whoa lets keep things calm in here. People talking over 2 million lol, I'm not talking Wii levels here.

I just get the vibe the system killed it comparable to how these systems typically perform
Click to expand...

Well your post is all like "DAMN BIG NUMBER" so yeah. What damn big number are you actually thinking of? It did 1.5 million in November right? December is typically an increase. 1.6? 1.7? 1.8?
 
J

Javin98

Banned
I expect a slight boost to the PS4 sales in December compared to November, somewhere around 1.6 million. 2 million sounds a bit too optimistic IMO.
 
S

serversurfer

Member
QuikNez said:
Anyone want to venture a guess into how many XB1 Elite controllers have been sold?

Given their sold out status this could be a console-relatedsuccess story that we haven't really broached. At $150 a pop, I'm guessing the margins on these things are robust... Possibly rivalling the X1 itself.

Thoughts / info ?
Click to expand...
Wut?


CosmicQueso said:
If it's doing so poorly that a price drop is needed to clear inventory then the last thing you'd want to do is buy one as support will start drying up.

You want it to do so well that Microsoft wants to drop the price to encourage even more sales, like Sony did with the PS4 this year.

You want a healthy platform if you're going to invest in it. Not a failing one.
Click to expand...
This. Buying a console on clearance seems like poor planning, especially when vital servers are likely to be EOL'd shortly after.
 
V

viHuGi

Banned
No way it did 2m, Ps4 isnt Wii.

Sure Ps4 will crush Wii numbers LT but Sony Consoles sell for a long period of time and always well but Wii was a juggernaut in the first years.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
viHuGi said:
Sure Ps4 will crush Wii numbers LT but Sony Consoles sell for a long period of time and always well but Wii was a juggernaut in the first years.
Click to expand...

I don't think is a given that PS4 will outsell Wii in the end. "Crush" is out of question, Wii sold ~42 million in US, at best PS4 will have a slight lead.
 
V

viHuGi

Banned
allan-bh said:
I don't think is a given that PS4 will outsell Wii in the end. "Crush" is out of question, Wii sold ~42 million in US, at best PS4 will have a slight lead.
Click to expand...

Damn im sorry mate i was talking WW, US is another story.

Xbox 360 outsold Wii there.
 
S

Somnia

Member
So I last worked on Sunday and when I left we had 19 Star Wars PS4 bundles, 16 Uncharted Bundles and 11 BLOPS 3. I went in tonight for 4 hours and we only had 4 Uncharted left. I did NOT expect that!

Still have 20+ Gears bundles and 8 Holiday bundles, 1 elite system.

Crazy holiday I tell you.

edit: no idea what days these were sold so some could have been Friday the 1st and before I got in tonight.

edit 2: never mind this NPD runs till Jan 2nd lol
 
T

Tubie

Member
Somnia said:
So I last worked on Sunday and when I left we had 19 Star Wars PS4 bundles, 16 Uncharted Bundles and 11 BLOPS 3. I went in tonight for 4 hours and we only had 4 Uncharted left. I did NOT expect that!

Still have 20+ Gears bundles and 8 Holiday bundles, 1 elite system.

Crazy holiday I tell you.

edit: no idea what days these were sold so some could have been Friday the 1st and before I got in tonight.

edit 2: never mind this NPD runs till Jan 2nd lol
Click to expand...

Yea this month is 5 weeks for NPD.

It's going to be nuts, I think both consoles will sell more than what they did in November.
 
J

Jack The Nipper

Banned
[3DS] 521K
[PS4] 1936K
[WIU] 290K
[XB1] 1401K

XB1 - 1,380,000
PS4 - 1,587,000
Wii U - 464,000

I had xb1 at 1380 before my edit. Pretty bad overall.
 
M

Mrbob

Member
Somnia said:
So I last worked on Sunday and when I left we had 19 Star Wars PS4 bundles, 16 Uncharted Bundles and 11 BLOPS 3. I went in tonight for 4 hours and we only had 4 Uncharted left. I did NOT expect that!

Still have 20+ Gears bundles and 8 Holiday bundles, 1 elite system.

Crazy holiday I tell you.

edit: no idea what days these were sold so some could have been Friday the 1st and before I got in tonight.

edit 2: never mind this NPD runs till Jan 2nd lol
Click to expand...

I'm curious to know how many star wars bundles Sony shipped because I think they sold nearly every one.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
serversurfer said:
Wut?



This. Buying a console on clearance seems like poor planning, especially when vital servers are likely to be EOL'd shortly after.
Click to expand...

I think they mean that profit sold on the Elite controllers are higher than the console, which is very possible. Accessories have always been sold at profit (vs consoles at a slight loss or slight profit). While it is a nice piece of kit, it likely does not cost 100USD plus to make, so Microsoft is likely making more off of the controller at 150USD than the Xbox1 at 300USD with a game and regular controller (per unit basis, not combined^^).
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Kyoufu said:
Well your post is all like "DAMN BIG NUMBER" so yeah. What damn big number are you actually thinking of? It did 1.5 million in November right? December is typically an increase. 1.6? 1.7? 1.8?
Click to expand...

1.5 mil is already a damn big number. Anything above that is pretty huge
 
S

serversurfer

Member
Trust me said:
I think they mean that profit sold on the Elite controllers are higher than the console, which is very possible. Accessories have always been sold at profit (vs consoles at a slight loss or slight profit). While it is a nice piece of kit, it likely does not cost 100USD plus to make, so Microsoft is likely making more off of the controller at 150USD than the Xbox1 at 300USD with a game and regular controller (per unit basis, not combined^^).
Click to expand...
Well, last I heard, Phil declined to confirm the Bone was profitable even at $350, so it seems likely they're losing money there, especially at $300.

So yeah, they're making way more on the $150 controller, since I'd be amazed if they spent even $25 building them.
 
F

Fat4all

Banned
serversurfer said:
Well, last I heard, Phil declined to confirm the Bone was profitable even at $350, so it seems likely they're losing money there, especially at $300.
Click to expand...

They really need to get a cheaper redesign out there soon.

I mean, there's a chance that both consoles have redesigns in 2016 (maybe 2017 for PS4), but Xbox needs to get the Xbox One in the green sooner than later.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Fat4all said:
They really need to get a cheaper redesign out there soon.

I mean, there's a chance that both consoles have redesigns in 2016 (maybe 2017 for PS4), but Xbox needs to get the Xbox One in the green sooner than later.
Click to expand...

A slim model should happen next year for the Xbox One just for the case. Thing is huge and I'm sure they've figured out how to make the thing smaller while making sure the unit doesn't overheat and quiet after 3 years. An E3 reveal and launch like the 360 slim isn't out of the question.

PS4 might get a "slim" model, but it'll probably be a redesign more than anything.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Fat4all said:
They really need to get a cheaper redesign out there soon.

I mean, there's a chance that both consoles have redesigns in 2016 (maybe 2017 for PS4), but Xbox needs to get the Xbox One in the green sooner than later.
Click to expand...

Phil Spencer dodged the question about profit saying there are multiple SKUs, implying that some are profitable and some others aren't.

My guess is that they're making money with first party bundles, at least on 1TB model. Probably that's why Fallout 4 and Rise of Tomb Raider doesn't received a bundle with the cheaper 500GB model, Microsoft doesn't wanted higher losses.

A Slim model would be great not just because of costs but because would be very well received considering the big size of Xbox One. New model and price cut can be a big moment for improve HW sales.
 
S

serversurfer

Member
Fat4all said:
They really need to get a cheaper redesign out there soon.

I mean, there's a chance that both consoles have redesigns in 2016 (maybe 2017 for PS4), but Xbox needs to get the Xbox One in the green sooner than later.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I was pretty surprised when Phil wasn't able to claim profitability. I know Bone always cost more to build than PS4, even without Kinect, but I figured their costs would drop at a similar rate. Then again, I guess Bone's RAM started pretty close to its price floor, whereas Sony recently halved the number of chips they need to buy. /shrug


allan-bh said:
Phil Spencer dodged the question about profit saying there are multiple SKUs, implying that some are profitable and some others aren't.

My guess is that they're making money with first party bundles, at least on 1TB model. Probably that's why Fallout 4 and Rise of Tomb Raider doesn't received a bundle with the cheaper 500GB model, Microsoft doesn't wanted higher losses.

A Slim model would be great not just because of costs but because would be very well received considering the big size of Xbox One. New model and price cut can be a big moment for improve HW sales.
Click to expand...
I don't have the link handy, but I thought they asked if Bone was profitable and he said they have a lot of SKUs. So they asked if any of them were profitable, and he said the console business isn't about turning a profit on the first sale.

Is that not how it went?
 
I

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Its shocking that we're possibly ending off 2015 with(at minimum) 3 million consoles sold for one platform in one territory during the holiday season. I don't even want to know PS4's sales WW
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Circana (NPD) Hardware Sales for 2022 - NSW 5830k | PS5 5660k | XBS 4480k
Sales-Age 2 3 4 5
230
16K
Woopah replied
Circana December 2023: #1 COD MWIII #2 Mario Wonder #3 Madden; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, Switch #2 Units + Revenue
Sales-Age 2 3
101
10K
MrA replied
Circana January 2024: #1 MWIII #2 Tekken 8 #3 Suicide Squad ; PS5 #1 Units + Rev, Switch #2 Units Xbox #2 Rev
Sales-Age 2 3
105
10K
mckmas8808 replied
Ampere Estimatez: PS5 sold 21 million, Xbox Series sold 13.8 million.
9 10 11 12 13
602
39K
SuperSaiyanWithDreads replied
Circana (NPD) October 2023: #1 Spider-Man 2 #2 Super Mario Wonder #3 AC Mirage; PS5 #1 Units + Revenue, NSW #2 Units, XBS #2 Revenue
Sales-Age 3 4 5 6 7
307
27K
Unknown? replied
Top Bottom