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December 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
That's INSANE
6.4m in Q4 2014.
I think that there is no doubt that the PS4 hit 35 million sold through by the end of 2015 now. I'm personally predicting 36.5 million sold through and 37.5 million shipped by the end of 2015.
I thought Europe had the same 299 euro deal for two weeks. And UK was the first place with the UC bundle drop. And Japan has the price drop the longest. I think sales will be up across the board in all territories so it's too early to say US percentage will increase relative to last year. Just my view of course.
Possumowner
Member
PS4] 1700k
[XB1] 1250k
[3DS] 320k
[WIIU] 230k
[XB1] 1250k
[3DS] 320k
[WIIU] 230k
{insert code here}
Member
PS4 > 2mil > Xbone+WiiU
In other words PS4 numbers over 2 million and outselling the combined sales of its competitors.
In other words PS4 numbers over 2 million and outselling the combined sales of its competitors.
travisbickle
Member
A lot of people putting a 4-500k gap between XB1 and PS4. That sounds like nightmare scenario for MS, l don't think it will be that wide.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Reserved, I need a while to think up the answer.
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
I'm seeing lots of posts predicting 2m for the PS4 and I'm not sure why. I have no doubt whatsoever that the PS4 won December but where is the high figure coming from, or more accurately, what information is leading to such a lofty prediction?
Over correction from last month at a guess
Pretty sure Ryng_Tolu answered that a few pages back
ps3ud0 8)
Bitch Pudding
Member
I predict 37 million sold through by the end of 2015.
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
Last month contained Black Friday, and I know this month contains Cyber Monday and is a 5 week month but Cyber Monday isn't anywhere near as big for consoles and sales will have fallen dramatically just prior to Christmas and afterwards.
So I guess a few people are thinking around 400k a week in November for the PS4, so in a 5 week December that makes 2million - and any drop off weekly is negated by the price reduction of specific bundles...
ps3ud0 8)
Primethius
Banned
My prediction (2100k) is an optimistic high end (I need to bet big to have any chance at the standings). But the underlying reasoning for that prediction would be the same had I predicted anywhere in the >1800k range.
Last November to December, PS4 was up 3% in weekly numbers. Last season, there was no price cut and I believe, it was pretty much the $399 GTA V throughout the holiday season. This month, you have a $299 Star Wars bundle for 14 days (as opposed to the 2-3 days of Black Friday for November tracking). It leads up to the new Star Wars movie (which is breaking records) and stayed for a few days after. You also have sales from Cyber Monday and the tail end of November factoring into the December NPD.
Which leads to my (basic) prediction that I think PS4 will also be up in weekly numbers this year like last. A 3% increase in weekly numbers would put PS4 north of 1800k, so it depends on how much you're thinking the system increased, if at all.
Of course, this is kind of like a basic (and probably very flawed) application of the weekly averages to the prediction numbers.
Over correction from last month at a guess
Pretty sure Ryng_Tolu answered that a few pages back
ps3ud0 8)
THANKS FOR BEING SO HELPFUL
Maybe. It just seems kind of dumb.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yeah, it was the day before the conference, IIRC. Didn't they come from Japan first and then brought up at CES?
Delete reserved posts.
Can't argue with that. If they can hit 1.7 or 1.8 then I doubt anyone at SCE would be disappointed.
But you also should remember that last year PS4 black Friday sales were not that huge.
And since you talk about price drop this december, PS4 got this price drop even during Black Friday...
I think PS4 will be easy up MOM, if will be up even in weekly sales, that's gonna be insane.
Primethius
Banned
It's true that BF sales last year weren't that massive and it could be the main factor in it's weekly increases. I suppose we'll see this month.
I was looking at the larger way the months played out and based my prediction around that. Last year had no price drop at all and was essentially value bundles throughout November and December. This year, November had a 2 day price drop (UC collection) versus a 14 day price drop on a bundle in much more demand I'd figure (Star Wars).
I'm not saying my prediction is likely (because it's crazy high and I don't expect PS4 to come close to those numbers) but this reasoning is what I used as a basis for the numbers.
Is also true that those 2 days of price drop include a lot of sales from Starting November and October.
...Btw, i you really don't believe in you'r prediction, i don't think is a wise decision don't edit it.
but ok we'll see. xDFinal December rankings on US Amazon:
HW
#3 PS4 Battlefront bundle
#15 Xbone Gears bundle
#39 PS4 Uncharted collection bundle
#53 Xbone Holiday bundle
#57 WiiU MK8 bundle
#94 PS4 Blops3 bundle
Who knows. I definetly think that PS4 will have a noticeable lead.
HW
#3 PS4 Battlefront bundle
#15 Xbone Gears bundle
#39 PS4 Uncharted collection bundle
#53 Xbone Holiday bundle
#57 WiiU MK8 bundle
#94 PS4 Blops3 bundle
Who knows. I definetly think that PS4 will have a noticeable lead.
Just an FYI the day after Christmas is one of the biggest shopping days of the year. In fact we did more business that day and sold more systems that day then Black Friday. Granted GameStop didn't have as many insane Black Friday deals.
On top of that the few days after Christmas were also pretty huge. Don't underestimate the post Christmas shopping week.
Obliterator
Member
That's not how it works at all. Those are 2 of the biggest weeks of the year in sales volume and the day after Christmas is bigger than Black Friday
slavesnyder
Member
Cruiseship mentality.
Get up early and put a towel on a deckchair next to the pool.
Then go for breakfast.
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
Really? Have you got any proof of this? I don't want to prove you wrong, I want to be proven wrong because that would be interesting.
Are yearly rankings also final?
Doesn't make sense to me, either, but this link says that day after Christmas is a bigger traffic day than Black Friday whilst being a lower sales day. That makes much more sense to me. Day after Christmas is the biggest returns day and combined with clearance Christmas stuff, makes sense that traffic numbers would be super high that day. According to the link, the Saturday before Christmas is the biggest sales day of the year, but that's at least partially due to Black Friday now having a lot of its sales pushed into Thursday. Would be good to see total spend numbers for Thanksgiving+Black Friday compared to any other 2-day period in the year, then!
CosmicQueso
Member
UGH I HATE THESE PEOPLE
These people can fucking die in a fire so I am trying to understand why we need people reserving deck chairs in a thread!
sjagolinzer
Member
[3DS] 350K
[PS4] 1400K
[WIU] 500K
[XB1] 1100K
[PS4] 1400K
[WIU] 500K
[XB1] 1100K
Updated Amazon rankings for December, likely final or with very small changes at this point:
Most notable, the jump to #88 for the PS4 COD bundle with only a few days in afaik.
#2: COD Blops 3 XB1
#3: PS4 Battlefront Bundle $349 (was $299 for 2 weeks)
#4: COD Blops 3 PS4
#6: Fallout PS4
#7: Fallout XB1
#9: Super Mario Maker WiiU
#11: Wireless controller XB1
#15: XB1 GeoW bundle $349 (was $299 for nearly 3 weeks)
#16: DS4 Black
#17: Battlefront XB1
#18: DS4 White
#20: Battlefront PS4
#23: DS4 Camo
#24: DS4 Red
#25: Halo 5 XB1
#26: Destiny TTK PS4
#27: DS4 Blue
#28: COD Blops 3 steelbook XB1
#29: NBA2K16 XB1
#30: Ass Creed Syndicate PS4
#31: NBA2K16 PS4
#33: COD Blops 3 Steelbook PS4
#35: Destiny TTK XB1
#36: Forza 6 XB1
#37: Minecraft XB1
#38: Ass Creed Syndicate XB1
#40: PS4 Uncharted Bundle $349 (was $299 for 2 weeks, but sold out for most of it)
#43: Lego Dimensions WiiU
#45: Just Cause 3 PS4
#46: Yoshi's wooly world WiiU
#48: Wii Remote Plus WiiU
#49: Battlefront Steelbook XB1
#52: Just Cause 3 XB1
#54: Rise of the Tomb Raider XB1
#55: XB1 Holiday Bundle $399 (was $349 for almost 3 weeks)
#56: Super Smash Bros WiiU
#57: WiiU Mario Kart 8 bundle $299
#58: Battlefront Steelbook PS4
#60: Xenoblade Chronicles X WiiU
#61: Madden NFL 16 Steelbook PS4
#62: Just Dance WiiU
#64: Rainbow 6 Siege XB1
#66: GTA 5 PS4
#69: Madden NFL 16 XB1
#73: Minecraft PS4
#74: Lego Dimensions PS4
#75: Lego Dimensions XB1
#76: Nintendo Pro Controller WiiU
#77: Metal Gear Solid TPP PS4
#78: Uncharted Collection PS4
#79: Mario Kart 8 WiiU
#80: Splatoon WiiU
#81: Minecraft Story Mode XB1
#82: Elite controller XB1
#84: Rainbow 6 Siege PS4
#88: PS4 COD blops III bundle $349
#89: Just Dance 2016 XB1
#91: GTA 5 XB1
#92: Madden NFL 16 PS4
#96: Need for Speed PS4
#99: Minecraft Story Mode PS4
Of note:
Rainbox 6 Siege, NBA2K16, COD Blops 3 (both editions, obviously without bundles), Battlefront (obviously without counting bundles) and Minecraft/ Minecraft Story Mode sold better on XB1
Destiny TTK, Just Cause 3, GTA5, MGS5, Fallout 4 and Madden 16 sold better on PS4
Just Dance Wii > WiiU > 360 > XB1 > PS4/ PS3 (out of top 100)
Lego Dimensions WiiU > PS4 > XB1
Most notable, the jump to #88 for the PS4 COD bundle with only a few days in afaik.
#2: COD Blops 3 XB1
#3: PS4 Battlefront Bundle $349 (was $299 for 2 weeks)
#4: COD Blops 3 PS4
#6: Fallout PS4
#7: Fallout XB1
#9: Super Mario Maker WiiU
#11: Wireless controller XB1
#15: XB1 GeoW bundle $349 (was $299 for nearly 3 weeks)
#16: DS4 Black
#17: Battlefront XB1
#18: DS4 White
#20: Battlefront PS4
#23: DS4 Camo
#24: DS4 Red
#25: Halo 5 XB1
#26: Destiny TTK PS4
#27: DS4 Blue
#28: COD Blops 3 steelbook XB1
#29: NBA2K16 XB1
#30: Ass Creed Syndicate PS4
#31: NBA2K16 PS4
#33: COD Blops 3 Steelbook PS4
#35: Destiny TTK XB1
#36: Forza 6 XB1
#37: Minecraft XB1
#38: Ass Creed Syndicate XB1
#40: PS4 Uncharted Bundle $349 (was $299 for 2 weeks, but sold out for most of it)
#43: Lego Dimensions WiiU
#45: Just Cause 3 PS4
#46: Yoshi's wooly world WiiU
#48: Wii Remote Plus WiiU
#49: Battlefront Steelbook XB1
#52: Just Cause 3 XB1
#54: Rise of the Tomb Raider XB1
#55: XB1 Holiday Bundle $399 (was $349 for almost 3 weeks)
#56: Super Smash Bros WiiU
#57: WiiU Mario Kart 8 bundle $299
#58: Battlefront Steelbook PS4
#60: Xenoblade Chronicles X WiiU
#61: Madden NFL 16 Steelbook PS4
#62: Just Dance WiiU
#64: Rainbow 6 Siege XB1
#66: GTA 5 PS4
#69: Madden NFL 16 XB1
#73: Minecraft PS4
#74: Lego Dimensions PS4
#75: Lego Dimensions XB1
#76: Nintendo Pro Controller WiiU
#77: Metal Gear Solid TPP PS4
#78: Uncharted Collection PS4
#79: Mario Kart 8 WiiU
#80: Splatoon WiiU
#81: Minecraft Story Mode XB1
#82: Elite controller XB1
#84: Rainbow 6 Siege PS4
#88: PS4 COD blops III bundle $349
#89: Just Dance 2016 XB1
#91: GTA 5 XB1
#92: Madden NFL 16 PS4
#96: Need for Speed PS4
#99: Minecraft Story Mode PS4
Of note:
Rainbox 6 Siege, NBA2K16, COD Blops 3 (both editions, obviously without bundles), Battlefront (obviously without counting bundles) and Minecraft/ Minecraft Story Mode sold better on XB1
Destiny TTK, Just Cause 3, GTA5, MGS5, Fallout 4 and Madden 16 sold better on PS4
Just Dance Wii > WiiU > 360 > XB1 > PS4/ PS3 (out of top 100)
Lego Dimensions WiiU > PS4 > XB1
spatenfloot
Member
After Christmas is big due to clearance sales and people going out to spend their gift cards.
Mikey Jr.
Member
bitbydeath
Member
What's the forum equivalent for throwing their towels in the pool?
Obliterator
Member
Nvm
Welfare
Member
This was originally $399 and then $349 for 3 weeks.
Right, I mixed up tbe Holiday bundle and the Lego Movie one I think.
joecanada
Member
We don't, if mods want to crack down on it I wouldn't complain it's obviously contributing nothing to the thread.
However it doesn't bother me personally as I just skip first pages of npd threads now
Will be interesting to see real numbers on battlefront after Pachter prediction