Yes I think we can
Fortunately there's a similar game recently released in the same caliber as Elden Ring in term of market anticipation, Cyberpunk
Cyberpunk was released on December 10, 2020, on PC+PS4+Xbox. Since it's recently released, gamers install base should be relatively the same between Dec-2020 to today.
Cyberpunk Steam peak players right after it's released is 1.054 million. A couple of months after release, CDPR said despite issues, Cyberpunk has sold 13.7 million in 2020 (that's 3 weeks worth of sale) with breakdown of 56% PC, 28% PS4, and 17% Xbox
10% of Cyberpunk 2077 PC sales were on GOG
www.pcgamesn.com
Elden Ring Steam peak players is 891K. But we know Soulsborne PC install base is 40% PC and 60% console.
Dark Souls Series Has Sold Over 8 Million Copies, 40% of Which Were on the PC
wccftech.com
So using those numbers
Cyberpunk PC sales in 3 weeks = 0.56 x 13.7 = 7.672 million
Elden Ring to Cyberpunk PC sale ratio = 0.891/1.054 = 0.8444
In 3 weeks, Elden Ring PC sale should be around = 0.8444 x 7.672 = 6.478 million
(Even Steamspy estimates that Elden Ring PC sales already reached, AT LEAST, 5 million)
Soulsborne install base is 40% PC, so
total Elden Ring sales in 3 weeks should be around 16.2 million (PC+PS+Xbox)
A year after its release, at the end of 2021, Cyberpunk sales is estimated at 18 million copies, that's 30% of its Dec-2020 sales.
Polish outlet Banker.pl has been chatting with some analysts about the financial fortunes of Cyberpunk 2077 in 2021, and with CDPR offering limited information, is our best look at the game’s potential performance this year.
www.forbes.com
If we're to use the same ratio,
Elden Ring 1-year sale should reach 21.2 million
Can someone better in math verify my numbers?