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[Petrae]

See? What did I tell you guys? NPD Ninjas work very, very fast to shut down that kind of liberal data disclosure once it gets spread throughout the Internet.

It's because Gamecrate really stepped over the line in terms of breaching Newegg's contract with NPD. It was great for us...not so great for Newegg and that ignorant Gamecrate editor who has to feel NPD's wrath.

Oh well. It was fun while it lasted.

RIP Gamecrate 2014-2014

Bingo. There's a HUGE difference between pointing folks in the right direction and blatantly pasting the report for all eyes to see. NPD will give some latitude, but not this much. It will be a painful lesson for Newegg and Gamecrate.

With great power comes great responsibility. Or something to that effect.

 

[coolasj19]

Yep. All dead.
See? What did I tell you guys? NPD Ninjas work very, very fast to shut down that kind of liberal data disclosure once it gets spread throughout the Internet.
It's because Gamecrate really stepped over the line in terms of breaching Newegg's contract with NPD. It was great for us...not so great for Newegg and that ignorant Gamecrate editor who has to feel NPD's wrath.
Oh well. It was fun while it lasted.
RIP Gamecrate 2014-2014

So uhhh.... what's going to happen to them? The editor get fired? Fined? Does Newegg get fined? The website entirely shuts down? And while we're on it, I'm at least satisfied that we got the most interesting month leaked as the last one leaked. After a price drop is a good month to get a leak.

 

[Badlucktroll]

Halo and $299 guys. that will do the trick. Microsoft needs to sell at a massive loss so the market gets saturated enough.

 

[Kazuma Kiryu]

LTDS:
WiiU 2.5m
DC 3.3m
GC 4.2m

I don't even know what to say.

 

[Amentallica]

Halo and $299 guys. that will do the trick. Microsoft needs to sell at a massive loss so the market gets saturated enough.

Would it even be worth it? Would they make up the difference in acquired users who would supposedly then buy software?

 

[Kayant]

Yeah...if I'm not mistaken, NPD tie ratios for Xbox One should be above 3, while PS4 tie ratios have yet to hit 3.

I wonder why Microsoft doesn't brag about that fact in their PR statements.

What's the attach rate for PS4 in NA I could have sworn they have never talked about it expect the WW one which was about 2.9

Edit -

Not surprised at the results XB1 may have a chance come Fall. SO doesn't seem like it will be the system seller Halo MCC has been getting a lot of pre-orders which is looking like another TF situation where most people already got an XB1 for TF around launch then again there is lots of time to go so things could change but it's looking like Halo MCC will have the bigger effect which isn't too surprising considering.

 

[Petrae]

So uhhh.... what's going to happen to them? The editor get fired? Fined? Does Newegg get fined? The website entirely shuts down? And while we're on it, I'm at least satisfied that we got the most interesting month leaked as the last one leaked. After a price drop is a good month to get a leak.

My guess is a financial penalty at the very least. It's a pretty egregious offense to just copy & paste a report to view for free that costs a significant amount of money to subscribers-- not to mention the protection of sales data that companies quite possibly did not want to release to the public, which has now been breached.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

I dunno why people think that it makes sense to exclude the Wii from last gen sales when looking at current gen. Unless you have data suggesting that all of the people that owned a Wii were single console soccer moms who only bought Wii Sports (you don't) it just seems like a blatant tactic to pose this gen as better than it is. There is nothing wrong with sales this gen, it's absurd however to cut out a 40+ million selling system just because it doesn't fit a narrative.

 

[noobasuar]

I dunno why people think that it makes sense to exclude the Wii from last gen sales when looking at current gen. Unless you have data suggesting that all of the people that owned a Wii were single console soccer moms who only bought Wii Sports (you don't) it just seems like a blatant tactic to pose this gen as better than it is. There is nothing wrong with sales this gen, it's absurd however to cut out a 40+ million selling system just because it doesn't fit a narrative.

Espcially when you factor in Wii's high attach rate.

 

[vicissitudes]

It sounds like Gamecrate was leaking numbers for a few months but was only discovered this month? And once the numbers made the rounds got promptly shut down?

What a shame...especially since all they leaked were numbers we got publicly just a few years ago.

 

[ethomaz]

So uhhh.... what's going to happen to them? The editor get fired? Fined? Does Newegg get fined? The website entirely shuts down? And while we're on it, I'm at least satisfied that we got the most interesting month leaked as the last one leaked. After a price drop is a good month to get a leak.

Nothing at all... they just won't post NPD articles anymore.

The good part is that all GAF hints + maths reached a pretty reliable numbers... it was really close to the real NPD (few ks off).

 

[eddfromtheriver]

Over and over people keep acting like the Xbox One is this wildly popular item, merely held back by it's current pricepoint. It's really not.
Unless the X1 drops to silly prices like 199$, where savings might start to trump actual demand, the competitor will still remain the hot product.

Yeah, IRL (personal experience), when the XBO is mentioned snickering ensues.

 

[Tamanon]

It sounds like Gamecrate was leaking numbers for a few months but was only discovered this month? And once the numbers made the rounds got promptly shut down?

What a shame...especially since all they leaked were numbers we got publicly just a few years ago.

Think of it as publishing material from a website with a subscription, like hosting giantbomb premium videos.

It devalues the product when people that are interested in purchasing it don't have to any more.

 

[CoG]

Halo and $299 guys. that will do the trick. Microsoft needs to sell at a massive loss so the market gets saturated enough.

I think it's a case of "tides have changed". In the same way some of the Playstation big titles lost cachet going from PS2 -> PS3 looks like the MS titles don't have the pull they once had. The standout is Halo. Even though Halo 4 tarnished the franchise a bit, Halo still holds weight. Question is, if Destiny is a huge success with that diminish the weight Halo holds?

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Halo and $299 guys. that will do the trick. Microsoft needs to sell at a massive loss so the market gets saturated enough.

That's a year and a half away though. Gears of War was launching in the Xbox One's second holiday, the MC collection won't be nearly as big. Sunset Overdrive could be a surprise hit, but I'm going to guess it falls somewhere between Crackdown (1 million) and Titanfall (2-3 million). Good enough for everyone involved to get paid, but not a title that really moves the needle for the hardware manufacturer.

 

[Celine]

You know for how much last gen was an "anomaly" and all, it sure does look a heck of a lot exactly like the gen before it, at least in the first 18 months.

eh eh eh

 

[Isleofsancroy]

It sounds like Gamecrate was leaking numbers for a few months but was only discovered this month? And once the numbers made the rounds got promptly shut down?

What a shame...especially since all they leaked were numbers we got publicly just a few years ago.

So was this site just like hidden or something this whole time?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Why 120k Japan? Seem like more 8.5m for end of June with corrected Japan.

should be 630k, yeah

But US and RotW estimates are LTD... so he needs to use 630 instead 120.

The math is wrong.

Corrected estimate using Psycho_Mantis maths.

Yup, I messed up on adding the LTD's.

From the correction PS4 may very well be at 9 million. I think 10 million by Gamescom is a lock now.

I'm surprised at two things:

2. Dark Souls 2 sold more on 360 than PS3

I remember a lot of people saying From weren't leaving money on the table with Project Beast going Sony exclusive, and I actually agreed with them. Well I guess we were all wrong! No wonder Microsoft fans were so pissed at the news, they love their Souls games.

PS3 is a lot more popular in EU and Japan is still a big fan Dark Souls (PS3 : 355k). Looking at the death counters:

PS3: 305 million
360: 130 million
PC: 150 million

Bear in mind PS4 vs XB1 is a lot lot more skewed towards PS4. Case in point MGS GZ.

 

[vpance]

Are we still getting console doom and gloom despite the fact that the PS4 is outpacing the PS2's first year world wide numbers despite much, much greater competition? The XBO and WiiU would be selling better if it wasn't for poor decisions their companies made and really, off the top of my head the only generation where one platform didn't run away with hardware sales was the fourth generation with the SNES and Genesis/Mega Drive. Well, unless you want to not count Nintendo last generation and still in North America MS pretty much trounced Sony.

There will be more doom next month, when sales come back down to normal levels.

 

[Yoda]

Halo and $299 guys. that will do the trick. Microsoft needs to sell at a massive loss so the market gets saturated enough.

The higher ups will not let the Xbox division subsidize the console.

 

[Pain]

PS4 is in beast mode

 

[AniHawk]

I don't even know what to say.

the wii u probably won't overtake the dreamcast until sometime next year. the dreamcast stopped selling in the us at about 4.1m units. if the wii u has another million or so in it for the calendar year (which is fairly realistic), then holiday 2015 is when the wii u should cross that mark.

 

[Opiate]

I dunno why people think that it makes sense to exclude the Wii from last gen sales when looking at current gen. Unless you have data suggesting that all of the people that owned a Wii were single console soccer moms who only bought Wii Sports (you don't) it just seems like a blatant tactic to pose this gen as better than it is. There is nothing wrong with sales this gen, it's absurd however to cut out a 40+ million selling system just because it doesn't fit a narrative.

I think for a lot of people it comes down to this:

The type of games many people here like were mostly not on the Wii. The developers who make "hardcore" AAA titles ignored the Wii even in its most popular moments. For many gamers, the loss of motion controlled gaming isn't relevant to their personal interests. If you're a traditional console gamer who mostly plays games made by EA/Ubisoft/Take 2/Activision, then very little is lost -- at least in the immediate term -- from a personal perspective.

It's similar to how the PS3's struggles last generation weren't relevant to a lot of gamers as long as the PS3 kept getting the games they personally wanted.

 

[mcrommert]

That's a year and a half away though. Gears of War was launching in the Xbox One's second holiday, the MC collection won't be nearly as big. Sunset Overdrive could be a surprise hit, but I'm going to guess it falls somewhere between Crackdown (1 million) and Titanfall (2-3 million). Good enough for everyone involved to get paid, but not a title that really moves the needle for the hardware manufacturer.

I really hope you aren't serious. Of the group i play games with we are usually mainly xbox gamers with playstations for exclusives...only one of my friends have gotten an xbox one and the other 4 are going to buy them for Halo Master Chief collection and for a lesser reason destiny. Halo even without a new campaign is going to own Gears of Wars numbers.

 

[Hoo-doo]

Halo and $299 guys. that will do the trick. Microsoft needs to sell at a massive loss so the market gets saturated enough.

Do what trick, maybe outsell the PS4 for a single month before being in second place again?
The price really isn't the only problem. It's the huge cloud of stink and negativity surrounding the console that's the problem.

Consumers know what's up. Besides, it doesn't exactly look good when your supposedly awesome console has to slash 200$ off it's price just to stay relevant.

 

[Petrae]

So was this site just like hidden or something this whole time?

Chances are the site didn't draw a lot of traffic or was relatively unknown until this round of numbers was picked up by a wider audience. At that point, NPD figured out what was happening, and... NINJA ATTACK.

 

[prag16]

Yup, I messed up on adding the LTD's.

From the correction PS4 may very well be at 9 million. I think 10 million by Gamescom is a lock now.

If PS4 is at 9 million as of July 5th (not guaranteed, and could very well be closer to 8.5 million), you think another million over the five weeks that follow is a "lock"? Are you expecting TLoU to sell another 1/2 million consoles in addition to what it would have sold based on its present trajectory (of course you're not, but just wondering how this is a "lock", whatsoever)?

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

I really hope you aren't serious. Of the group i play games with we are usually mainly xbox gamers with playstations for exclusives...only one of my friends have gotten an xbox one and the other 4 are going to buy them for Halo Master Chief collection and for a lesser reason destiny. Halo even without a new campaign is going to own Gears of Wars numbers.

Gears of War sold 1 million copies in November of 2006.

Halo: MC collection is not only a remake, but is launching against a new CoD, a new Battlefield, a new Far Cry, a new Assassin's Creed, and legacy sales of fall heavy hitters like Destiny, Madden, and NBA 2k. Oh yeah, and a remake of the most popular 360/PS3 game of all time, GTA5. It seems almost irresponsible to predict more than 500k sales for the first month.

 

[donny2112]

Unless you have data suggesting that all of the people that owned a Wii were single console soccer moms

who bought 1 million copies of RE4. Soccer moms are branching out!

Spoiler

The early audience on Wii was made up of a lot of core/traditional buyers, and RE4 launching in the first year is a good example of that along with COD3 sales, Zelda Wii, etc. Over the years as companies kept their major core games off the Wii, that audience slowly atrophied until late gen Wii owners were a lot less core/traditional than they were at the beginning. The problem becomes when some people take the audience of late gen Wii and say it was always like that, which is entirely disingenuous.

 

[JetSetRadio]

PS4 numbers are surprisingly high this month.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

If PS4 is at 9 million as of July 5th (not guaranteed, and could very well be closer to 8.5 million), you think another million over the five weeks that follow is a "lock"? Are you expecting TLoU to sell another 1/2 million consoles in addition to what it would have sold based on its present trajectory (of course you're not, but just wondering how this is a "lock", whatsoever)?

If PS4 is 9 million at the end of June thats 2 million in 3 months.

Isn't games com mid or late August. So 1.5 (time period; months) x 2/3 (rate) = 1 million.

 

[prag16]

So 140k is still not great by any means. But if any of that momentum can be retained, I wonder if it will sway any 3rd parties at all.

Will Activision confirm this year's CoD?
Will Ubisoft dust off the allegedly completed game they have on the shelf?
Will EA shit out some "Legacy" sports titles?
Will anybody else take any notice at all?


Not really optimistic on any of the above at this point. Too much damage was done in 2013. Though I think Activision may have another CoD left in them. They still are supplying their licensed crap and their shovelware, so maybe they haven't left completely.

If PS4 is 9 million at the end of June thats 2 million in 3 months.

Isn't games com mid or late August. So 1.5 (time period; months) x 2/3 (rate) = 1 million.

Sony's Gamescom presser is August 12th I believe. Assuming 9 million at end of last reporting period (July 5th, and not even a guarantee), that would require 1 million more sales in less than six weeks. 50k (max) in japan, and 400k each in EU/US (being pretty damn generous) that's still not enough. Maybe in best case scenario from other regions, etc they could scrape just about to 10 million. Maybe. But it's anything but a "lock", that's all I'm saying.

 

[GulAtiCa]

Gears of War sold 1 million copies in November of 2006.

Halo: MC collection is not only a remake, but is launching against a new CoD, a new Battlefield, a new Far Cry, a new Assassin's Creed, and legacy sales of fall heavy hitters like Destiny, Madden, and NBA 2k. It seems almost irresponsible to predict more than 500k sales for the first month.

Didn't Halo 1 Anniversary sell very low in it's debut NPD month? I remember it like didn't even chart in top 10 I believe. With a low install base for Xbox One, vs very high install base for Halo 1 Anv for 360, I also don't see it selling 1 million right away, or even half that. It being 4 games does at least help make it's value seem better.

 

[ethomaz]

If PS4 is at 9 million as of July 5th (not guaranteed, and could very well be closer to 8.5 million), you think another million over the five weeks that follow is a "lock"? Are you expecting TLoU to sell another 1/2 million consoles in addition to what it would have sold based on its present trajectory (of course you're not, but just wondering how this is a "lock", whatsoever)?

Gamescom start in Aug 13th... so it is more than 6 weeks from July 5th... one more week can means I don't know 150k WW?

Avg. 150k per week for 6 weeks = 900k.

It will be close.

 

[Square2015]

The N64 did 20m~ LTD in the US. Barely a drop from the SNES 23-25m~. It was Japan and the lack of JRPGs that hit the N64's WW LTD harder.

Not to get off topic but there are some misconceptions about past sales. From my research the N64 looks to have sold 18m (NPD) while the SNES 17m in the US. (GEN between 16-17m...still working on compiling NPD data there). Those manufactured ("shipment") figures turned out to be way high before they changed their tracking methods in 2000.

 

[eddfromtheriver]

140k in June definitely isn't horrible, but it is coming on the back of the Wii U's biggest software release probably ever. I don't think that really qualifies as saved.

Yep... merely a minor spike following a long preceding flat-line...

 

[Donos]

PS4 numbers are surprisingly high this month.

Yeah, going to be interesting when the real heavy hitters get released (eg. Driveclub, Bloodborne).

 

[mcrommert]

Gears of War sold 1 million copies in November of 2006.

Halo: MC collection is not only a remake, but is launching against a new CoD, a new Battlefield, a new Far Cry, a new Assassin's Creed, and legacy sales of fall heavy hitters like Destiny, Madden, and NBA 2k. Oh yeah, and a remake of the most popular 360/PS3 game of all time, GTA5. It seems almost irresponsible to predict more than 500k sales for the first month.

Halo 4 sold 3.8 million copies...its first week. I understand the install base is much, much smaller, but this title will hit over 1 million the first month. You don't seem to understand how much nostalgia some gamers have for the earlier halo games.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

I think when trying to figure out the LTD for PS4 you can't use the same number as NA .
Sales in EU should be at least 1.5 times that of NA for Sony maybe twice as much since it so early in the gen .
Sony made nearly 50% of it's PS3 sales from EU without having the UK and coming out year and half later i can them being at 9 million LTD.

 

[bigbaldwolf86]

Halo 4 sold 3.8 million copies...its first week. I understand the install base is much, much smaller, but this title will hit over 1 million the first month. You don't seem to understand how much nostalgia some gamers have for the earlier halo games.

There's one game in that collection that will help it to sell and that's the remastered Halo 2. That's the game that will get fans to spend their money.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Yeah, going to be interesting when the real heavy hitters get released (eg. Driveclub, Bloodborne).

I would think the heavy hitters would be more like GT, Uncharted, MGSV, FFXV, KH3 and Destiny. Bloodborne will still be big.

Also I bet you LBP3 will surprise people with its sales.

 

[mcrommert]

Yeah, going to be interesting when the real heavy hitters get released (eg. Driveclub, Bloodborne).

I don't really think Driveclub will be a heavy hitter.

Didn't Halo 1 Anniversary sell very low in it's debut NPD month? I remember it like didn't even chart in top 10 I believe. With a low install base for Xbox One, vs very high install base for Halo 1 Anv for 360, I also don't see it selling 1 million right away, or even half that. It being 4 games does at least help make it's value seem better.

Halo anniversary suffered from the fact it was just a remaster of a game...without the multiplayer of halo one it was appealing to a very little group of gamers. Multiplayer is the reason halo players buy halo.

 

[vcc]

I really hope you aren't serious. Of the group i play games with we are usually mainly xbox gamers with playstations for exclusives...only one of my friends have gotten an xbox one and the other 4 are going to buy them for Halo Master Chief collection and for a lesser reason destiny. Halo even without a new campaign is going to own Gears of Wars numbers.

Anecdotal stories are problematic because of how people with similar interests clump. For instance everyone I know who plays games now owns Divinity: original sin but it's not indicative of broad interest. Halo collection is likely to sell well but it's uncertain if it would recruit enough new purchasers to mean much. After all the base of hardcore Halo fans likely already own the XB1; just as TF didn't push that much more units because a lot of the install base already bought XB!'s for TF.

 

[prag16]

Gamescom start in Aug 13th... so it is more than 6 weeks from July 5th... one more week can means I don't know 150k WW?

Avg. 150k per week for 6 weeks = 900k.

It will be close.

It's between 5 and 6 weeks. And 150k per week seems slightly aggressive based on recent data. And we don't even know if it's closer to 8.5 or 9 right now. Not saying impossible, but I'm saying very unlikely (and nowhere near a lock).

 

[Gotdatmoney]

I think for a lot of people it comes down to this:

The type of games many people here like were mostly not on the Wii. The developers who make "hardcore" AAA titles ignored the Wii even in its most popular moments. For many gamers, the loss of motion controlled gaming isn't relevant to their personal interests. If you're a traditional console gamer who mostly plays games made by EA/Ubisoft/Take 2/Activision, then very little is lost -- at least in the immediate term -- from a personal perspective.

It's similar to how the PS3's struggles last generation weren't relevant to a lot of gamers as long as the PS3 kept getting the games they personally wanted.

I just find the whole thing kind of dishonest. Games you don't like on systems you don't care about do not mean that they aren't a relevant and factual part of the market. Also, losing the chunk of the Wii market that was more into games not aimed at 16-35 year old males is in no way good for gaming as a whole. Especially console gaming. And even further more, when a console sold 40 million units, I dunno how reasonable it is to sit there bold faced and say all those sales were from an unrelated market with no proof. That's just crazy.

who bought 1 million copies of RE4. Soccer moms are branching out!

Spoiler

The early audience on Wii was made up of a lot of core/traditional buyers, and RE4 launching in the first year is a good example of that along with COD3 sales, Zelda Wii, etc. Over the years as companies kept their major core games off the Wii, that audience slowly atrophied until late gen Wii owners were a lot less core/traditional than they were at the beginning. The problem becomes when some people take the audience of late gen Wii and say it was always like that, which is entirely disingenuous.

Well I mean, from all the data I read that would be the conclusion I came to as well but without even going through all that, just the shear bulk of software the WiiU sold, how could anyone make the conclusion that 900 million pieces should be discarded? That's just crazy talk.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

I don't really think Driveclub will be a heavy hitter.



Halo anniversary suffered from the fact it was just a remaster of a game...without the multiplayer of halo one it was appealing to a very little group of gamers. Multiplayer is the reason halo players buy halo.

Really? Have you seen how good it looks?

It's the first exclusive racer on the PS4, and arguably the first 'next-gen' racer so far, so I can see it going down a storm in Europe.

Let's not forget Playstation is the brand that has lots of Gran Turismo fans in this part of the world.

 

[w1gglyjones]

Really? Have you seen how good it looks?

It's the first exclusive racer on the PS4, and arguably the first 'next-gen' racer so far, so I can see it going down a storm in Europe.

Let's not forget Playstation is the brand that has lots of Gran Turismo fans in this part of the world.

Didn't the last GT release on the PS3 not do so well? And why does a GT fanbase translate to big sales for Driveclub? Maybe sales simply won't be all-that-and-a-bag-of-snackcakes.

 

[ethomaz]

It's between 5 and 6 weeks. And 150k per week seems slightly aggressive based on recent data. And we don't even know if it's closer to 8.5 or 9 right now. Not saying impossible, but I'm saying very unlikely (and nowhere near a lock).

How much did you think PS4 is selling weekly WW?

7k Japan
53k US

RotW? I'm pretty sure 70k is minimum..

Now add TLOU boost and you have the 150k weakly avg. in WW July... can be more.

 

[donny2112]

Didn't the last GT release on the PS3 not do so well? And why does a GT fanbase translate to big sales for Driveclub?

Apparently it did really good in Europe, but not as well as GT4 in U.S./Japan, which was itself a huge decrease from GT3 (again, outside of Europe).

http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html

 

[mcrommert]

Really? Have you seen how good it looks?

It's the first exclusive racer on the PS4, and arguably the first 'next-gen' racer so far, so I can see it going down a storm in Europe.

Let's not forget Playstation is the brand that has lots of Gran Turismo fans in this part of the world.

They should have called it Grand Turismo: Driveclub. It has no name recognition and Playstation do not seem to be pushing it nearly as much as even 3rd party games like Destiny. It is being sent out to die.