theprodigy
Member
It has not done so up to this point, so in order for this to occur the sales patterns must shift in favor of the other territories.
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NPD Sales Results for June 2014 [Up3: All Hardware (June/LTD), Top 10 Software SKUs]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
It has not done so up to this point, so in order for this to occur the sales patterns must shift in favor of the other territories.
According to the sales we do have, it has.
America 2.5m
Japan 1.833m
ROTW 2m+ (Wii U's current LTD sold is sitting around 6.5m)
Official numbers for march LTD was 6.17 iirc, with NA alone, you have about 250k to add to that, and Wii U saw a small bump in japan over the last 2 months thanks to MK8, so without counting Europe at all, that number should have cleared 6.5m by now.
theprodigy
Member
unless you're separating the rest of the Americas and adding to other, which I suppose you could but then you'd have to adjust that downwards, because the current shipments (before the next shipment updates) would be like this:
USA ~2.25m
Japan 1.81m
ROTW ~2.12m
veritassin
Banned
As far as I understand any Wii U development will be able to be rolled into the next console as well. That is, if I understand what their whole plan is correctly.
I don't see them waiting until 2017 to replace the Wii U personally.
Yes sorry, I wasn't counting Canada in those numbers, I'm American and so the rest of the world + Japan just makes sense to me
They are releasing a handheld in 2016 already, so adding a console which we know is a separate device in the same year is not something Nintendo will want to do.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
With your average having to be maintained over 3+ years your missing a massive factor: the decline of sales through a systems life cycle.
GC sold 11.578 million in the USA:
2001.|....1.236.000|
2002.|....2.345.000|
2003.|....3.281.000|
2004.|....2.305.000|
2005.|....1.695.000|
2006.|.......542.000|
2007.|.......104.000|
WiiU has sold 2.5 million so far:
2012.|......885.000|
2013.|....1.164.500|
2014.|......450.500| (so far)
You can clearly see it here. I reckon 2014 will be WiiU's peak year as well.
No, I expect the peak to be 2015, 2014 didn't have any heavy hitting life long titles (life of the system) until MK8 and Smash later this year, so I expect 2015 to be the year people jump in, also Nintendo looks like it has a much smoother release schedule next year which should help it maintain sales instead of the larger fall offs we see now.
So 120k+ this year, 130k+ next year 90k in 2016 and 60k in 2017.
These are all just estimates, and I did start this all of with IF, but it does seem fairly possible. As I mention in an earlier post above though, even if WW numbers over the next 40 months is 200k, that is still 8m more Wii Us sold.
veritassin
Banned
Yes sorry, I wasn't counting Canada in those numbers, I'm American and so the rest of the world + Japan just makes sense to me
They are releasing a handheld in 2016 already, so adding a console which we know is a separate device in the same year is not something Nintendo will want to do.
I kind of see them releasing both around the same time since they will be part of their family of devices.
It's possible, but they have a lot to do between now and then, most of their software for Wii U hits in 2015, so for them to have new software for these successors, means that they will have to finish new software in about a year. I just don't see the big push for Wii U in 2015 if they have a console ready in 2016, I actually feel like 2016 will be more like this year with releases than what they have planned for 2015.
Nintendo kept pushing Mario Kart Wii ads for 3 years. And the was no DLC nor Amiibo to keep things fresh. I absolutely believe they won't stop promoting their most successful system sellers any time soon. MK8 will always be more bankable than any Yoshi/Toad game.
Don't worry, I won't be quoting Epicurus.
At least it's well (imo) thought out and is an estimated guess, not a forecast.
SwiftDeath
Member
Well I could be wrong about the marketing for it still existing 3 years from now I suppose but I really don't think the baseline or trajectory of the console will be changed significantly enough for us to even consider Wii U sales in late 2016 or 2017 as I doubt they'll be overly significant
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
A well written post.
I would like to add however that it seems that Nintendo is only now actively pursuing a turnaround plan. The past few fiscal years, Nintendo put their heads in the sand, acted blindly advising their shareholders and themselves, to a certain degree, that everything would be fine and by their next fiscal year, they would be profitable.
Nintendo is no longer singing the same tune:
- Costs-cutting measures implemented (Nintendo Europe layoffs, Closing of Nintendo Phuten, E3 initiative)
- Increase IP Licensing opportunities (Pokemon Google, Mario Kart 8 GLA Mercedes-Benz, Mario Golf Callaway, several promotional tie-ins with McDonalds and so forth)
- Diversification of revenue streams such as Amiibo and QOL.
- Creation of Business Development Department
Nintendo is dead-focused on achieving their set targets for the fiscal year - they are waking up and making changes in order to thrive in the marketplace and judging by their actions above and their line-up, they have a solid chance on succeeding on that front.
I'm not hopeful that Nintendo will achieve an Operating Income of 400 million, I'm personally expecting 300 million, but it's going to be a nice change in the landscape comparatively to the countless losses these past few years were.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
I think one interesting point that over 30% of the YTD sales of the Wii U were just in June. Thus it's really hard to tell what the Wii U will actually hit at the end of this year. Just having last year's xmas sales (800K in November/December) would put it at 1.25m. I could easily see it hit 1m in those months alone (it wouldn't take much) or even more. That would put 2014 at 1.45 million. Let's say the Wii U has a good rest of the year at hits 2m (to be optimistic). I could see something like this:...
2012.|......885.000|
2013.|....1.164.500|
2014.|......2m (estimate)
2015 |......1.5m (estimate)
2016 |......800K (estimate)
and these #s would already give zombie close to his Wii U LTD -> 6.349m to be exact. Clearly the 2m would be relying an actually good holiday and some decent (relative to Wii U) sales in July, Aug, Sept & October though.
Graphics Horse
Member
Their devkit might be a turbo charged duplicate of their next handheld for all we know, do you think that will also be 2017?
edit: nvm you already answered that.
But
They have a lot of teams at Nintendo... They have a very big game, Zelda and 2 small in-house teams working on Splatoon and Mario-Maker (is that in house?). Are any other teams accounted for?
They've already discussed potentially only having a single game next gen that works on both systems instead of one for each system, so urgency of development for new platforms should decrease.
Andronicus
Banned
Xbox one been trending on twitter for like 2 months straight & still not topping NPD
SwiftDeath
Member
What have you been using to measure Twitter trends? I've always wondered about that
It will likely be 2016 as Iwata stated that it would take them about 2 years until they are ready for their next "step" in gaming (paraphrased, probably badly) he might not mean a new device but it seems pretty straight forward. Also yes Nintendo needs to just have 1 devkit for developers to use across all of their platforms (I expect them to have 3) this would mean 3rd parties can just make 1 game for all Nintendo platforms and release it at once, rather than make 2 of the same game or target a divided Nintendo user base. (If Nintendo sells 100m across all of their devices next cycle, not that I am suggesting that they obviously will or anything as that market is quite unclear, but if they do. A 3rd party can make a game to target all of those users.
GoofsterStud
Member
Include the GameCube version too.
Wickerbasket
Member
Probably a smart idea, since the Wii U seems to be tracking closest to the Gamecube.
prag16
Banned
Don't worry, I won't be quoting Epicurus.
At least it's well (imo) thought out and is an estimated guess, not a forecast.
What you're saying makes a lot of sense. Any prediction sub 12m definitely seems every bit as unlikely as (if not more than) gamecube numbers. Even if it follows a gamecube-like curve that's still well over 6m units in the U.S. alone by late 2017.
Glorified G
Member
I know your not making a 1:1 comparison, but just to highlight the key difference between the Vita and X1 in terms of profitability is third party support. X1 is still relevant in the West and will continue to see support from the big third parties for the foreseeable future which in turn will generate MS a good deal of money.
"One time r&d expense" is a nonsensical add back. R&D spending is absolutely operational and core to nintendo's fundamental business, not to mention they are spending more on r&d because they have one absolutely unprecedented historical failure and one handheld in decline.
This would be like Bristol Myers saying ebitda is really much higher because we should discount their increased r&d due to plavix going off patent.
This would be like Bristol Myers saying ebitda is really much higher because we should discount their increased r&d due to plavix going off patent.
Narpas Sword0
Member
Mario Kart 8 is the biggest game that will ever be released on the Wii U. Smash is the second biggest most likely.
Iwata stated that their strategy was to push evergreen titles likes Mario Kart. Going into next year Wii U will have Mario, Mario Kart and Smash compared to just Mario at the start of this year so there's a good chance the baseline will be higher the first half of next year than this. Greater diversity of lineup in general can also increase the baseline as can any price cuts(of which they have more scope to do than they did with the Gamecube.)
For example a cut to $199 next holiday in time for Zelda could allow reasonable holiday sales. A cut to $149 for holiday 2016 with something like Mario Galaxy 3 could allow another year of reasonable holiday sales(reasonable relative to Wii U/Gamecube). New IP like Splatoon can also potentially increase the baseline. There's a fair bit of scope for Nintendo to build on the momentum they've been building since the price cut last year(again momentum relative to Wii U, not relative to PS4/Wii etc).
SwiftDeath
Member
So z0m3le I feel I owe you an apology, upon seeing psycho mantis posting Gamecube/Wii U numbers and playing with the numbers, I realized that your prediction of 6.5M Wii U's for NA is eminently possible if not probable. So I am sorry for doubting your predictions as that one at least doesn't seem too unlikely.
Now that's out of the way, on to napkin math!
So for comparison Gamecube sales stats as I have them
So assuming the Wii U follows the Gamecubes sales pattern simply with a bit of a lower trajectory
So I think the Gamecube table makes sense. In the Wii U table, the "Est. of Final LTD" is based off of that years total sales divided by the relevant Gamecube year's % of GC's Final LTD. For instance 2012's Est. of final LTD is 885000/(0.1074) and so on.
The "Cumu. Est. of F. LTD" or Cumulative Estimate of Final LTD is based off of LTD including that year divided by cumulative % of GC's Final LTD including that year. For instance 2013's Cumu. Est. of F. LTD is 2049500/(0.3111) and so on.
Also I estimated Wii U's 2014 sales at 1.6M in the US just so I could take a look. Not sure how optimistic that would be.
Anyways looking at the numbers, I think a 6.5M NA Final LTD for Wii U is very possible especially if there is noticeable uptick for 2015's early months although it would probably require a strong Holiday 2014
Now that's out of the way, on to napkin math!
So for comparison Gamecube sales stats as I have them
Code:
---------------------------------------------------------------
Gamecube US Sales
---------------------------------------------------------------
Year | Sales | LTD | % of Final LTD | Cumu. % of F. LTD |
---------------------------------------------------------------
2001 | 1236000 | 1236000 | 10.74% | 10.74% |
2002 | 2345000 | 3581000 | 20.37% | 31.11% |
2003 | 3281000 | 6862000 | 28.51% | 59.63% |
2004 | 2305000 | 9167000 | 20.03% | 79.66% |
2005 | 1695000 | 10862000 | 14.73% | 94.39% |
2006 | 542000 | 11404000 | 04.71% | 99.01% |
2007 | 104000 | 11508000 | 00.90% | 100% |So assuming the Wii U follows the Gamecubes sales pattern simply with a bit of a lower trajectory
Code:
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Wii U US Sales & Final LTD Estimates
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Year | Sales | LTD | Est. of Final LTD | Cumu. Est. of F. LTD |
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 | 885000 | 885000 | 8239951 | 8239951 |
2013 | 1164500 | 2049500 | 5714740 | 6586329 |
2014 | 1600000 | 3649500 | 5611948 | 6120438 | <- Estimate for 2014 SalesSo I think the Gamecube table makes sense. In the Wii U table, the "Est. of Final LTD" is based off of that years total sales divided by the relevant Gamecube year's % of GC's Final LTD. For instance 2012's Est. of final LTD is 885000/(0.1074) and so on.
The "Cumu. Est. of F. LTD" or Cumulative Estimate of Final LTD is based off of LTD including that year divided by cumulative % of GC's Final LTD including that year. For instance 2013's Cumu. Est. of F. LTD is 2049500/(0.3111) and so on.
Also I estimated Wii U's 2014 sales at 1.6M in the US just so I could take a look. Not sure how optimistic that would be.
Anyways looking at the numbers, I think a 6.5M NA Final LTD for Wii U is very possible especially if there is noticeable uptick for 2015's early months although it would probably require a strong Holiday 2014
looks reasonable. i mean, that's 1.15m from now until the end of the year. not including june, wii u sales are about 18% up year over year. in 2014, the wii u sold about 260k from jan-jun, and 1.2m for the year. if that 18% holds up between now and then, it's another 1.117m units.
zomgbbqftw
Banned
Sunk costs. Satya needs to call time on this idiotic consumer hardware venture, he should not have the pay for the mistakes of his predecessor in trying to make Microsoft into Apple rather than IBM. MS should be a B2B company with a sideline of Windows and Office for consumers (the former being cheap or free licences to ensure they keep the monopoly going). Everything else is a waste of resources and time, while it also lowers Microsoft's operating margin and return on invested capital.
I am not sure why the guy wants to keep xbox console around. I mean compared to their other division, which makes a shit tone of money, this one is a sinking box and there is no way they can overtake the PS brand. Just do an IBM ffs.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Sure there are sunk costs, but there are also huge costs to withdrawing from the xbox space any time soon. I completely agree with Aqua.
Saying Microsoft should follow the path of IBM would be telling MS to give up in the consumer space b/c they'll magically hold onto enterprises that way. The amount of money they lose on the xbox division is a drop in the bucket compared to all the other money they make, and anyone asking for Microsoft to get rid of the Xbox division at this point is simply short sighted and typically just an investor trying to get the profit margins to be up slightly.
Honestly the vision Nadella has been embracing is to make products that are appealing to consumers to get them to use the same products in the enterprise. If consumers aren't into your products, enterprises couldn't care less about it. This is the way Apple & Google have been stealing marketshare from Microsoft, whether it is less folks using/buying PCs to small companies switching to use Google Docs. Xbox is Microsoft's most popular consumer brand, and was really successful last generation, so it'd be silly to simply abandon it without a lot of careful consideration when targeting consumers to get to the enterprise is supposed to be your company approach. They should abandon Windows Phone too then right? It's not like enterprises are using it or something =P.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
That would mean WiiU would have to do an average of 137.5k during July, August, September and October. I hope you can now see how bad WiiU sales are, even in comparison to GC. I mean its struggling to even achieve on of GC's lesser years at its supposed peak year.
I agree with your estimates apart from that though. 6.3-5 million in US will probably lead to a LTD of 13 million WW.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
If Nintendo was to have a really good year I was expecting far more of the gains to be in the holidays, and not in July-October. I expect July to be ok, August to be its low point, and September and October to be increasingly better. If Nov + December could be like 1.2m together (which would be pretty fantastic for the Wii U imo. I think the GC beat that in 2003), then they would need an average of about 100K per month. I realize the Wii U is doing terribly compared to the GC and that I'm being super optimistic with the 2m tho =P.
A trend could indicate either negative or positive. Could be trending with people talking it down.
I know what you mean though, the Xbox One trend seems to be in the worldwide trends more. Could also be due to effective twitter marketing by Microsoft.
secondspace
Member
I assumed MS were paying for Xbox to constantly appear as trending. I honestly don't know, but it seems completely out of sync with the actual buzz around the console.
GoofsterStud
Member
It had half the tweets... I jus charted all three consoles.
Mysterious
Banned
1. Source?Yes sorry, I wasn't counting Canada in those numbers, I'm American and so the rest of the world + Japan just makes sense to me
They are releasing a handheld in 2016 already, so adding a console which we know is a separate device in the same year is not something Nintendo will want to do.
2. See 2001's GBA/GCN.
3. Next handheld will be 2015.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
I don't know what evidence you have to support that given Nintendos history of a first unveling of hardware at E3 1.5 years in advance, an in-depth examination at E3 0.5 years in advance and a release at the end of that E3 year.
Unless you think they're going to pull a Saturn.
Unless you think anyone is ever going to pull a Saturn ever again.
theprodigy
Member
November+December 1m would require a near 50% YoY increase, I'm not so sure it's exactly likely to do more than that
KillerMan91
Member
Considering how dismal 3DS sales have been this year already compared to previous years and how they need their handheld to keep the company going as their home console business is in the ruins they really can't wait for that long. 3DS alone will not be able to carry the company in 2016. They need to launch in 2015.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Your post is just literally assumption stacked upon assumption.
There is no evidence of a 3Ds successor being released next year.
KillerMan91
Member
My post is common sense. Well of course they can try to sustain the business with 3DS alone until late 2016. It won't be pretty though.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Given you don't know the cost and development timeline for a handheld console R&D, cost and development timeline for software for that hardware, cost and development timeline for hardware and software partnerships to support that hardware, or current nintendo financials, no, its not "common sense".
Its speculative guesswork.
Its speculative guesswork.
Version 3.0
Member
Could it be piggy-backing off the PS4's buzz? I don't use twitter, but the PS4 and XB1, like their predecessors, are quite often mentioned together.
They don't *need* anything, the company is not on the verge of bankruptcy. Usually Nintendo reveals the new console at E3, and then launches it one year later, which is what I believe will probably happen.
3DS won't be carrying them alone, they're launching QOL and focusing on Wii U. The development support just isn't there to launch a new handheld in 2015, if 3DS decline really is that great a threat attempting to revitalize the current platform with pricing adjustments, hardware refreshes and/or new software development using their mature pipelines makes more sense.
For new platforms it's more likely to be QOL in 2015, nOS handheld in 2016, nOS console in 2017.
it is entirely possible that they could release a 3ds successor next year. i think it's something they should do now that the platform is obviously in decline. it would need to follow the ds's timeline of announcing it a year beforehand, and showing it an e3 beforehand.
i just think that all development resources are tied up in the wii u right now. 3ds will probably have *enough* games in 2015 to keep from being completely dead. in the us, it'll probably get more localizations just to keep interest up. i don't see a possibility where games would be ready for a new platform in about a year, as much as it really needs to happen.