The problem with the Wii U is that momentum can't really be sustained. Their huge releases are followed by...nothing for the next 1-2 months typically.
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NPD Sales Results for May 2014 [Up1: Wii U Hardware]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
The problem with the Wii U is that momentum can't really be sustained. Their huge releases are followed by...nothing for the next 1-2 months typically.
yeah it looks around 90k or just under maybe
neogaffer1
Banned
Using a protractor (might be somewhat off, my protractor is slightly messed up)--
PS4--157 degrees
Wii U--49 degrees
XB1--65 degrees
Wii--10 degrees
360--51 degrees
PS3--32 degrees
Knowing that Wii U is above 360, those two degrees should be swapped. Therefore,
PS4--157 degrees
360--49 degrees
XB1--65 degrees
Wii--10 degrees
Wii U--51 degrees
PS3--32 degrees
And since we know Wii U is 60k,
PS4--185k
360--58k
XB1--76k
Wii--12k
Wii U--60k
PS3--38k
Anyone want to double check my math? I rounded a bit.
OMG really? Kind expected more.
plutoknight
Member
Did we make a Polygon pie chart joke yet with this? Someone should get on that (oh, and the protractor thing,t oo)
This seems right, from what I've readin the thread thus far. You people and your maths.
Is this that new Smash character that was revealed during the round table?
Yaser Tech
Member
James Sawyer Ford
Member
I think the PS2's 155 million number (which I believe is total LTD sales which comprises of 12 years of sales vs PS3/360 which has been on the market for ~8) is more analogous to the PS3 + 360 market, which is already well above 160 million, than it is the Wii market.
The Wii market simply brought in a whole new segment of gamers that never purchased a console before.
This generation could end up being 100M PS4, 60M Xbox One, and 20M Wii U, which is 180M total, and all the contraction occurring with the Wii.
IAmRandom31
Banned
I would swap Wii U and 360.
Alright so here is the winner. Eyeballing size based off the 60K Wii number.
Vita = 55K or so
360 = 45K or so
PS3 = 30K ( looks to be almost exactly half the size of U )
Xbox One = 75K or so
3DS = 90K perhaps?
PS4 = 175K or so?
Hows sub 200K compare to previous years for best selling May console?
Edit, beaten with science! BAH! lol
shinra-bansho
Member
Angles.
7.989
37.011
22.38
120.385
35.091
47.999
54.504
35.072
Not perfectly precise, (adds slight over 360, measurement error).
Who uses a protractor these days, lol.
7.989
37.011
22.38
120.385
35.091
47.999
54.504
35.072
Not perfectly precise, (adds slight over 360, measurement error).
Who uses a protractor these days, lol.
DeadlyBunny
Member
I didn't check your math, but those numbers line up well with what most people have been guesstimating so far.
Also, nice job with the measurements.
neogaffer1
Banned
Someone should really double check my numbers, my protractor melted together with a triangle so I wasn't able to be really accurate.
Oh, so I wasn't too far off.
Oh, so I wasn't too far off.
eddfromtheriver
Banned
*thumbs up*
Wow at that gif! Any video?
The baby is Vita, Sony is the dad and the Vita community is the rescuer.
shinra-bansho
Member
Using 61K Wii U as base. In 000s.
Code:
WII 13
WIU 61
PS3 37
PS4 198
360 58
XBO 79
3DS 90
PSV 58Low numbers across the board. I thought Watch Dogs was going to push some hardware, and Wii U only got a tiny ass bump from MK8, even though it was only two days.
75K for Xbone is pretty damn low. What do you guys think the over under is for Xbone right now? 50 million? 40 million?
Right now the new generation feels too similar to the old. Same franchises, graphics barely any different except for resolution. As well as software gaps. Feels like an extension of last gen software which was already stale as hell and that is why I think numbers are so low right now.
75K for Xbone is pretty damn low. What do you guys think the over under is for Xbone right now? 50 million? 40 million?
Right now the new generation feels too similar to the old. Same franchises, graphics barely any different except for resolution. As well as software gaps. Feels like an extension of last gen software which was already stale as hell and that is why I think numbers are so low right now.
-Pyromaniac-
Member
I've done some extensive analysis:
Last generation had a record proportion of multiconse owners and I remember a Nielsen figure that 70% of Wii owners had owned a PS2. I think you're overselling the casual audience a bit too much, PS2 was loaded with casuals and even 360 managed a high number of them after Netflix/Kinect. It's never been a Wii only phenomenon even if Wii pushed harder there than anyone had before.
lightning2k3
Member
vita = 360? I thought vita was around 56k?
Jaded Alyx
Member
PS4 at least 2x-3x xbone by the looks of this chart.
Chezzymann
Member
This looks like its really close since even though you used Wii U as a base, vita is still very close to the reported number (56K).EDIT: forgot about the normal vitas, that probably means what you got is about right.
I had no idea those existed, nifty!
Seems a little off. creamsugar said the PS4 outsold the X1, 360, and Wii U combined.
Mike Works
Member
NoSkillz187
Member
VIIIITTAAAAAA!!!!!!!!! I swear if Sony would market this thing. Drop the fuckin memory cards prices in half. Bring the 64gb to the west. Bundle Minecraft and actually market it. Also is the Slim being sold separately? The Slim alone should be $170.
But who am I kidding, Sony doesn't give a shit about Dat Life.
But who am I kidding, Sony doesn't give a shit about Dat Life.
Which might be true according to those numbers, considering rounding and other error.
Officerrob
Banned
It's entirely too hard to tell right now, MS basically cannibalized their sales this month with the early lower SKU announcement
360 was supply constrained. PS3 launched at $599 with major issues in hardware complexity.
Superdata, a data company that works with numerous companies including Microsoft, was predicting a massive contraction and ultimately a crash before this gen even began (knowing full well the hype going into it): http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-10-03-gaming-risks-a-repeat-of-1983-crash-report
Some interesting takeaway figures there are the primary gaming platform and its change over time.
2008:
Console = 42%
PC = 37%
Mobile = 5%
2013:
Console = 30%
PC = 51%
Mobile = 13%
These NPD threads would be far more interesting if PC sales figures (which is to say digital/steam) were available. We can check it out for public companies that make it available. It paints an interesting picture to say the least. Here are Ubisofts (from https://www.ubisoftgroup.com/en-US/investor_center/earnings_sales.aspx Fiscal Year Earnings Press Release):
I doubt many here would have ever guessed that PC is currently Ubisoft's best selling platform.
If we assume the difference is less than 1k, then these numbers can work. Just gotta keep rounding in account.
Barack Lesnar
Banned
This would be counting the Wii as part of the contraction when it was really its own thing. The types of AAA games publishers are releasing wouldn't sell well on the Wii. I'm not able to word my point clearly but I'm sure you understand what I'm trying to say. I think it's better to count total sales for the "industry is contracting" comparisons as PS4 + X1 vs. PS3 + 360.
Using something similar to your prediction, let's say 100 mil for PS4 and 40 mil for X1 so 140 mil vs. 160 mil for last gen (80 mil PS3, 80 mil 360, don't have exact numbers). That's not a big deal imo. For the major third party publishers, not having that 100 mil from Wii isn't going to be a big issue considering the types of games they're developing and putting all their money into. Not having that massive Wii audience isn't going to impact Activision's $500 million investment into Destiny, for example.
there was a 1% that wasn't the bundle
Orthogonal
Member
The OP has WIIU at 60.1K, Run the numbers again, probably closer since PSV needs to go down a bit. Either way, PS4 is essentially flat Month to month. I guess that is better than nothing. XBO had HUGE decline, the Kinectless SKU better deliver.
WiiU sales were 60k and measurement errors.
360 vs Vita too close to call... I can live with that.
shinra-bansho
Member
Bleh. Since everyone wants to be pedantic. Remeasured.
60.1 as base, angles add to 360 degrees. Sum of Xbox + Wii U < PS4. Vita 56K.
Code:
Angles Proportion 000s
7.038 0.01955 11
37.472 0.104088889 60
22.481 0.062447222 36
120.774 0.335483333 194
35.387 0.098297222 57
47.464 0.131844444 76
54.538 0.151494444 87
34.846 0.096794444 56Yoo so my early numbers were not that wild
Linearskillz
Member
Damn, really wish we had accurate PC software data now. Might be quite surprising.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Which I find to be complete and utter bullshit.
They either had a presence on prior consoles, or the market for "core" gaming contracted with the PS3/360.
PS2 155 million
XBX 24 million
GCN 21 million
DC 10 million
Total 210 million units
PS3 84 million
360 83 million
Total 167 million units.
With Wii the total goes to 267 million units.
Either contraction already took place or Wii brought a marginal increase to the market.
Though it starts getting fuzzier the generation before that (PS1/N64/SS) brought in around 145 million players. Generation on generation increases are the expectation. PS2 generation bringing in 65 million new gamers, Wii generation bringing in around 50 million new gamers.
Separating the markets is folly, bullshit, whatever you want to call it. The problem for home consoles isn't that Wii was a fluke or fad. It's that another competitor swooped in and stole them away. This time from the traditionalist market entirely.
2.5 PS4s sold for every X1 sold, roughly, according to those numbers.