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[shinra-bansho]

Kinect was obviously an important part of their late-cycle strategy. And yes, they invested heavily in developing and promoting it. That isn't really the point I'm getting at.

It's that offering an unbundled SKU doesn't imply that Microsoft no longer have any interest in pursuing the consumers that buoyed the second half of last generation. I think that's a flawed premise.

It can simply mean they recognize they're not going to get those consumers now with a $500 box, regardless of Kinect. They're likely not going to get them with the unbundled $400 box either, and Sony isn't getting them now either. But by making the $500 Kinect SKU their only SKU they weren't competing as well as they could do for the consumers that are buying the system now.

It just seems premature to take their recent actions now to conclude that in a couple years' time they won't be making a concerted, and perhaps expensive, effort towards attracting those consumers again. Whether it will work and/or whether it will be too late at that time is a perfectly valid question though I concede.

June is invariably a big month where 50-100% gains are typical regardless of what the big-thing-of-the-month happens to be. The reason I'd speculate for the uptick is that it's the end of the school year in many US schools. It should help start to give the first taste of data on the health of the console industry outside that's going to be driven primarily by people outside of early adopter/enthusiast types.

There are like 4 instances of home consoles doing anywhere near 100% M/M increases in May-June transition in the last generation. One of those coincides with the release of Metal Gear Solid 4. One of those coincides with the 360S. June is generally/sometimes slightly stronger than May (i.e. it shows more than a 1.25x increase that would be seen if sales were just flat), but the typical increase can largely be explained by the extra week. So I don't really know why one would expect 400K next month.

 

[mo60]

The thing that frustrates me here is that you have all the tools you need to verify or refute my statement at your disposal. I make a lot of comments that actually require thinking, critical analysis and more than a first level analysis. This ain't one of 'em. Seriously click on that neogaf symbol, click the sales archive button, click NPD and then start checking out standard seasonal trends - particularly May-June trends. It would have taken you less time to verify that I am correct than it did to write your post exposing your self willed ignorance!

The system seller isn't exactly a myth since a few franchises do tend to result in an uptick in sales, but they're so rare as to be practically irrelevant. Historical trends on the other hand absolutely drive the standard of sales. Now I'm sure this is obvious to you if we were talking about the holiday uptick, yet you somehow think it's reasonable to then treat the other 9 months of the year as completely random and more or less equal? Of course not.

June is invariably a big month where 50-100% gains are typical regardless of what the big-thing-of-the-month happens to be. The reason I'd speculate for the uptick is that it's the end of the school year in many US schools. It should help start to give the first taste of data on the health of the console industry outside that's going to be driven primarily by people outside of early adopter/enthusiast types.

So you expect the PS4 to sell near PS2/Wii levels in the US in it's first June? That won't happen. It will most likely sell closer to 200K.

 

[SwiftDeath]

The thing that frustrates me here is that you have all the tools you need to verify or refute my statement at your disposal. I make a lot of comments that actually require thinking, critical analysis and more than a first level analysis. This ain't one of 'em. Seriously click on that neogaf symbol, click the sales archive button, click NPD and then start checking out standard seasonal trends - particularly May-June trends. It would have taken you less time to verify that I am correct than it did to write your post exposing your self willed ignorance!

The system seller isn't exactly a myth since a few franchises do tend to result in an uptick in sales, but they're so rare as to be practically irrelevant. Historical trends on the other hand absolutely drive the standard of sales. Now I'm sure this is obvious to you if we were talking about the holiday uptick, yet you somehow think it's reasonable to then treat the other 9 months of the year as completely random and more or less equal? Of course not.

June is invariably a big month where 50-100% gains are typical regardless of what the big-thing-of-the-month happens to be. The reason I'd speculate for the uptick is that it's the end of the school year in many US schools. It should help start to give the first taste of data on the health of the console industry outside that's going to be driven primarily by people outside of early adopter/enthusiast types.

I legitimately have no idea what numbers you are using to try and extrapolate a general market trend for consoles from May -> June of a 50 - 100% increase? Please refute the numbers below with numbers that support your claim. Thanks

Unless the month MGS4 of all games releasing is supposed to be the baseline market change for May to June all of a sudden for all consoles?

As promised earlier, here you have first two May-to-June datas for home consoles last gen

Xbox 360

2006
May - 221,000
June - 277,000

Weekly sales change - 0,27%
MOM change - 25,34%

2007
May - 155,000
June - 198,000

Weekly sales change - 2,19%
MOM change - 27,74%

PS3

2007
May - 81,000
June - 99,000 (month prior to 60 GB price drop - $599 --> $499)

Weekly sales change - (2,2%)
MOM change - 22,22%

2008
May - 209,000
June - 406,000 (MGS4 launch + bundle)

Weekly sales change - 55,41%
MOM change - 94,26%

Wii

2007
May - 338,000
June - 382,000

Weekly sales change - (9,6%)
MOM change - 13%

2008

May - 675,000 (Wii Fit release)
June - 667,000

Weekly sales change - (21%)
MOM change - (1,2%)

 

[Dire]

I legitimately have no idea what numbers you are using to try and extrapolate a general market trend for consoles from May -> June of a 50 - 100% increase? Please refute the numbers below with numbers that support your claim. Thanks

Unless the month MGS4 of all games releasing is supposed to be the baseline market change for May to June all of a sudden for all consoles?

Those numbers are exceptions. Feel free to list every single yearly May-June for each console. I'm not going to.

The question isn't whether or not the trend exists. The question of those numbers is whether or not it's reasonable to compare launch aligned data. I'm not sure.

ed: Rather than going issue by issue I think it's more clear and less debatable to simply say that this gen's launch has been far unlike any other so launch aligned data isn't as fair a comparison as it would ostensibly seem to be.

 

[shinra-bansho]

360	PS3	WII	WIU
1.3		
1.3	1.2	1.1
1.2	[B][I][U]1.9[/U][/I][/B]	1.0
1.4	1.3	1.2
[B][I][U]2.3[/U][/I]	[I][U]2.0[/U][/I][/B]	1.3
[B][I][U]1.9[/U]	1.6[/I][/B]	1.2
[B][I]1.6[/I][/B]	1.5	1.3
1.2	1.3	1.5	1.3

Jun/May console multipliers.
Bold italics > 50% M/M increase.
Underlined, at/near/greater than 100% M/M increase.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Those numbers are exceptions. Feel free to list every single yearly May-June for each console. I'm not going to.

The question isn't whether or not the trend exists. The question of those numbers is whether or not it's reasonable to compare launch aligned data. I'm not sure.

ed: Rather than going issue by issue I think it's more clear and less debatable to simply say that this gen's launch has been far unlike any other so launch aligned data isn't as fair a comparison as it would ostensibly seem to be.

So you're going to make some out there claim about a massive MOM change then when someone asks you to back up your claim, you retort condescendingly demanding they look at past NPD threads to see these clear MOM change that you're suggesting. Then when someone shows you 6 very comparable data points which is the information you asked them to look at which you implied would clearly show this trend which as I have shown does not in fact show that trend at all besides MGS4's launch month you reply by saying all of those data points are exceptions?

You made a ridiculous claim about the MOM change from May to June. The onus is on you to try and uphold that claim not on everyone else to just take your word for it. Doubly so when the data presented does not show that at all.

And what the hell are you on about here?

The question isn't whether or not the trend exists. The question of those numbers is whether or not it's reasonable to compare launch aligned data. I'm not sure.

ed: Rather than going issue by issue I think it's more clear and less debatable to simply say that this gen's launch has been far unlike any other so launch aligned data isn't as fair a comparison as it would ostensibly seem to be.

You are the one who was trying to use "mythical" historical trends to try and set a baseline for what PS4 has to achieve in June for it not to be selling poorly and now all of a sudden you're bringing up that this launch is not like previous ones thus it's not a good means to predict the future. What?

Also the question still very much exists if there is a 50 - 100% MOM increase from May to June and I have seen little that would suggest it is anything like that high

Edit: Thanks Shinra. That answers that quite effectively

 

[Dire]

360	PS3	WII	WIU
1.3		
1.3	1.2	1.1
1.2	[B][I][U]1.9[/U][/I][/B]	1.0
1.4	1.3	1.2
[B][I][U]2.3[/U][/I]	[I][U]2.0[/U][/I][/B]	1.3
[B][I][U]1.9[/U]	1.6[/I][/B]	1.2
[B][I]1.6[/I][/B]	1.5	1.3
1.2	1.3	1.5	1.3

Jun/May console multipliers.
Bold italics > 50% M/M increase.
Underlined, at/near/greater than 100% M/M increase.

Thanks, so that factors out to an average of a 52% MoM increase for the 360, a 54% average gain for the PS3 and Wii in Wii land.

 

[heidern]

360	PS3	WII	WIU
1.3		
1.3	1.2	1.1
1.2	[B][I][U]1.9[/U][/I][/B]	1.0
1.4	1.3	1.2
[B][I][U]2.3[/U][/I]	[I][U]2.0[/U][/I][/B]	1.3
[B][I][U]1.9[/U]	1.6[/I][/B]	1.2
[B][I]1.6[/I][/B]	1.5	1.3
1.2	1.3	1.5	1.3

Jun/May console multipliers.
Bold italics > 50% M/M increase.
Underlined, at/near/greater than 100% M/M increase.

Looking at this data and what SwiftDeath quoted from Mpl90 it seems June is generally flat in terms of weekly sales. That would suggest PS4 would be expected to be around 250K for June. Watchdogs launch boosting May may mean that it is less than that, possibly even flat at 200K. Although if Watchdogs has legs sales could be higher.

 

[Aquamarine]

360	PS3	WII	WIU
1.3		
1.3	1.2	1.1
1.2	[B][I][U]1.9[/U][/I][/B]	1.0
1.4	1.3	1.2
[B][I][U]2.3[/U][/I]	[I][U]2.0[/U][/I][/B]	1.3
[B][I][U]1.9[/U]	1.6[/I][/B]	1.2
[B][I]1.6[/I][/B]	1.5	1.3
1.2	1.3	1.5	1.3

Jun/May console multipliers.
Bold italics > 50% M/M increase.
Underlined, at/near/greater than 100% M/M increase.

These aren't normalized to account for June's 5 weeks (compared to May's 4 weeks), are they?

I wonder what an equal comparison (4 weeks May -> 4 weeks June) would look like...in terms of MOM decreases.

 

[shinra-bansho]

EDIT: Not normalized Aqua.

I'd say something around a flat June weekly average is a likely probability. You have some minor degree of June being stronger sometimes, even factoring out the extra week. But that could be offset by May having a major release.

The XBO will probably see a good increase though as it was depressed this month, imo.

Thanks, so that factors out to an average of a 52% MoM increase for the 360, a 54% average gain for the PS3 and Wii in Wii land.

http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/outliers.html

 

[Dire]

Looking at this data and what SwiftDeath quoted from Mpl90 it seems June is generally flat in terms of weekly sales. That would suggest PS4 would be expected to be around 250K for June. Watchdogs launch boosting May may mean that it is less than that, possibly even flat at 200K. Although if Watchdogs has legs sales could be higher.

The exact average gain is about 53%. 25% of that would be explained by the tracking period so we're looking at a baseline of about 300k.

The reason for my increased expectations of the PS4 performance were mentioned previously - in particular I think it will be absorbing a greater than average number of sales from the XBone due to greater "mindshare." The Wii as always is the wildcard.

 

[Dire]

EDIT: Not normalized Aqua, rough rule of thumb, anything around 1.25 is essentially flat.

I'd say something around a flat June weekly average is a likely probability. You have some minor degree of June being stronger, even factoring out the extra week. But that could be offset by May having a major release.

The XBO will probably see a good increase though as it was depressed this month, imo.
http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/outliers.html

Remove the top 2 and bottom 2 and we get 40% for the 360.

Remove the top 1 and bottom 1 and we get 45% for the 360.

Remove the top and bottom of the PS3 and we get 52%.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Remove the top 2 and bottom 2 and we get 40% for the 360.

Remove the top 1 and bottom 1 and we get 45% for the 360.

Remove the top and bottom of the PS3 and we get 52%.

How about we use medians?

Median for 360 is 1.35 [+35%], median for PS3 is 1.5 [+50%] and are again not normalized for June's extra week

 

[shinra-bansho]

Why would one remove the top two and the bottom two? That's not how one defines outliers.

Normalised to number of weeks.

360	PS3	WII	WIU
1.0			
1.0	1.0	0.9	
0.9	1.6	0.8	
1.1	1.0	1.0	
1.9	1.6	1.0	
1.5	1.2	0.9	
1.3	1.2	1.1
1.0	1.0	1.2	1.0

 

[Dire]

How about we use medians?

Median for 360 is 1.35 [+35%], median for PS3 is 1.5 [+50%] and are again not normalized for June's extra week

Probably the most reasonable way would be to measure the variance, whip out the z table (null hypothesis = "true" increase greater than or equal to 50%) and create a confidence range.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Probably the most reasonable way would be to measure the variance, whip out the z table and create a confidence range.

Sure but we could argue back and forth on what is and isn't an outlier and what to do about them. June 2008 saw MGS4's release solely on PS3 with a hardware bundle. June 2010 saw Xbox 360's Slim SKU release. Both months with higher than average increases from previous months and while I would consider June 2008 almost certainly an outlier, I'm not sure about June 2010 though as although it's a larger MOM increase I'm not convinced that even a new 360 SKU could explain all that increase as it was the same price as the elite anyway

 

[Dire]

Sure but we could argue back and forth on what is and isn't an outlier and what to do about them. June 2008 saw MGS4's release solely on PS3 with a hardware bundle. June 2010 saw Xbox 360's Slim SKU release. Both months with higher than average increases from previous months and while I would consider June 2008 almost certainly an outlier, I'm not sure about June 2010 though as although it's a larger MOM increase I'm not convinced that even a new 360 SKU could explain all that increase as it was the same price as the elite anyway

What I suggested would compensate for outliers. Outliers increase the standard deviation which decreases (well increases... "worsens") the interval of your null hypothesis.

 

[heidern]

Probably the most reasonable way would be to measure the variance, whip out the z table (null hypothesis = "true" increase 50%) and create a confidence range.

The most reasonable way would be to say that for X360 3/8 years there was a >= 60% increase and 4/8 years there was a <= 30% increase. With the remaining year a 40% increase.

Of course to be truly reasonable you'd also have to look at what actually happened in those months. For example the month that coincided with the release of the 360S can be reasonably ignored. You'd also have to consider what happened in the month of May that exaggerated or depressed sales.

 

[SwiftDeath]

What I suggested would compensate for outliers. Outliers increase the standard deviation which decreases (well increases... "worsens") the interval of your null hypothesis.

It's been a while since I've done such testing but wouldn't you start by testing if the data in question passes the basic normality tests? And would we use all the data points so n = 23? Because I wouldn't feel too confident in testing where n = 8 [for example just with the 360's data]

 

[Dire]

The most reasonable way would be to say that for X360 3/8 years there was a >= 60% increase and 4/8 years there was a <= 30% increase. With the remaining year a 40% increase.

Of course to be truly reasonable you'd also have to look at what actually happened in those months. For example the month that coincided with the release of the 360S can be reasonably ignored. You'd also have to consider what happened in the month of May that exaggerated or depressed sales.

I'm not sure. That seems like it's getting awful close to a smart sounding hindsight bias. There's always the "next big thing" which usually just sizzles out. Discounting them when they actually do take off - I can't even imagine what that'd do to the data. As an example - Titanfall. Up until the point we saw it actually wasn't moving systems at all I think many people would considered a bump to let's say 600 or 700k perfectly predictable. Then we're having this conversation several years from now discussing sales and you want to discount that month since it was the month that the XBone was going to get an obvious bump - huge release + mega bundle deals! obvious!

 

[LightOfTruth]

It's been a while since I've done such testing but wouldn't you start by testing if the data in question passes the basic normality tests? And would we use all the data points so n = 23? Because I wouldn't feel too confident in testing where n = 8 [for example just with the 360's data]

Yes, you're correct. They're assuming a normal distribution of the data.

 

[Dire]

It's been a while since I've done such testing but wouldn't you start by testing if the data in question passes the basic normality tests? And would we use all the data points so n = 23? Because I wouldn't feel too confident in testing where n = 8 [for example just with the 360's data]

I wouldn't touch the Wii numbers with a 10 foot pole so you end up with a normality test of 15... It'd be great fun seeing some graphs for any local excel/maple(?)/etc aficionados. Why this is just riling up the inner actuary in me! There's a million different means to massage these numbers all based on a variety of assumptions which can then be argued. The lack of clarity is why I think this game, the prediction game, is so much fun.

 

[heidern]

I'm not sure. That seems like it's getting awful close to a smart sounding hindsight bias.

Hindsight is a benefit and thus a good thing. We can see in hindsight what sales actually were and what the likely causes were. We also have some foresight since we have some idea of what is going to happen in a particular month. We know there is no PS4 price cut or new hardware SKU and correct me if I'm wrong but no major releases. Certainly nothing of the order of MGS4. In which case the most likely result is flat weekly average rather than an elevated one.

Is there anything this June that you think will boost sales?

 

[Dire]

Hindsight is a benefit and thus a good thing. We can see in hindsight what sales actually were and what the likely causes were. We also have some foresight since we have some idea of what is going to happen in a particular month. We know there is no PS4 price cut or new hardware SKU and correct me if I'm wrong but no major releases. Certainly nothing of the order of MGS4. In which case the most likely result is flat weekly average rather than an elevated one.

Is there anything this June that you think will boost sales?

In most any field of statistics and probability that'd be called results oriented thinking. Bad stuff that's incredibly widespread in the business and economics world today (recommended reading: Fooled by Randomness by Taleb - seriously if that book was required reading for anybody in any business or investing - the world would be a vastly more reasonable place today.

The gist of that book is exactly what I was stating about with regards to Titanfall above. When things happen as we predict we like to think that's the only way things could have turned out. People have difficulty reconciling randomness in reality. When we flip a coin, we readily accept that we can't predict which way it's going to land. Yet when we discuss events involving an infinitely large number of interdependent actions all heavily influenced by unpredictable factors, we like to think when we're right then we were going to be right all along when things turn out as we predicted. It's very silly when you think about it.

ed: With all of this there is of course a big difference (and a million shades of grey in the interim) between learning from the results of past events to help create better assumptions and models for future events and retrofitting past data using whatever happens to fit nicely in place. The former is learning, the latter is results oriented thought.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Isn't this whole line of discussion is based on your comment that the expected value of PS4 sales next month based on historical data should be 400K, if not higher. That 50-100% gains are typical, regardless of software releases or other circumstance.

How on earth does the recent, i.e. last gen, historical data I posted, particularly when one considers the context of particular data points, does one conclude that it's the most likely expected outcome or take it to verify the above claims about typicality of 50-100% un-normalized M/M increases.

I'm really not even sure what you're arguing anymore; that none of the points should be excluded because we should accept randomness that apparently led to the entirely explicable MGS4 bundle increases and that Microsoft announced a new model for immediate release at E3 2010, and reduced the Arcade model to clearance $150 prices? That those were entirely typical increases?

 

[Dire]

Isn't this whole line of discussion is based on your comment that the expected value of PS4 sales next month based on historical data should be 400K, if not higher. That 50-100% gains are typical, regardless of software releases or other circumstance.

How on earth does the recent, i.e. last gen, historical data I posted, particularly when one considers the context of particular data points, does one conclude that it's the most likely expected outcome or take it to verify the above claims about typicality of 50-100% un-normalized M/M increases.

50% is absolutely a typical growth for June pretty much regardless of how you massage the numbers.

I don't think 400k is an unreasonable prediction in the least given the state of the competition however calling 100% typical was obviously wrong.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

50% is absolutely a typical growth for June pretty much regardless of how you massage the numbers.

I don't think 400k is an unreasonable prediction in the least given the state of the competition however calling 100% typical was obviously wrong.

No. You are evidently wrong whether you want to admit it or not. Just look at the data.

Out of 23 data points only 6 show a 50%+ increase and those 6 include reasons such as:
-MGS4, new models and price cuts.

Anyone with eyes can see that 50% growth is a rare occurrence and usually one that is accompanied by the release of a major exclusive, new model or price cut.

A reasonable prediction would be 240k

 

[Dire]

No. You are evidently wrong whether you want to admit it or not. Just look at the data.

Out of 23 data points only 6 show a 50%+ increase and those 6 include reasons such as:
-MGS4, new models and price cuts.

Anyone with eyes can see that 50% growth is a rare occurrence and usually one that is accompanied by the release of a major exclusive, new model or price cut.

A reasonable prediction would be 240k

I love the irony of your post.

Do you see it?

Also small correction in your post. Only 7 of the data points show a 50%+ increase via Shinra's numbers. He was more careful with his phrasing to say > 50%.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I love the irony of your post.

Do you see it?

No

 

[Dire]

No

You just attacked my figures claiming only 7 match the 50%+ growth.

You then proceed to claim that 240k would be a more reasonable prediction based, it seems, primarily on the above.

240k would be a week-for-week decline. How many data points match that? How many non-wii datapoints match that?

 

[shinra-bansho]

The numbers are rounded. Only 6 of them exceed 50%. One of them is 46%. Six are between 20-29%, it's the mode of the data set, whether one includes the Wii or not. Only three show a M/M normalised decrease.

250K would probably be a reasonable prediction, I guess if you want to split hairs 240K wouldn't based on the frequency of M/M weekly average decreases. It still falls more closely to the most frequent transitions.

Edit: I feel like I should put some sort of past performance does not guarantee future results caveat here.

 

[heidern]

In most any field of statistics and probability that'd be called results oriented thinking.

No, it's not results oriented thinking.

It's learning from the results of past events to help create better assumptions and models for future events.

Out of 23 data points only 4 showed around a 100% increase with 2 around 60%. That leaves 17 which had a less than 50% increase with 14 being less than 30%.

If you add real world analysis to the raw statistical analysis you'll discount 2 of the boosted months as being due to MGS4 and 360S since seasonal factors are not the only factors impacting hardware sales.

Is your contention that major hardware and software releases don't impact hardware sales?

Do you think Microsoft lied when they said:
“Strong demand for the new Xbox 360 250GB combined with a $50 price reduction in the US on the Xbox 360 Arcade and Elite consoles, now US$149.99 and US$249.99 respectively, has resulted in a significant sales spike for Xbox 360 since the new console hit shelves on or around June 14.”

A 50% increase would mean PS4 hits 300K, but even that is unlikely looking at the data.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

You just attacked my figures claiming only 7 match the 50%+ growth.

You then proceed to claim that 240k would be a more reasonable prediction based, it seems, primarily on the above.

240k would be a week-for-week decline. How many data points match that? How many non-wii datapoints match that?

lmao this has to be a joke. I was just doing some mental maths there.

If you want to be pedantic then here;

(197/4)*5 = 246.25k

I think we all know that your assertion that a 50% increase is typical growth is simply false.

So when are you going to stop pushing this ridiculous agenda or are you just going to dig yourself into a deeper hole.

 

[Dire]

No, it's not results oriented thinking.

It's learning from the results of past events to help create better assumptions and models for future events.....

Do you think Microsoft lied when they said:
&#8220;Strong demand for the new Xbox 360 250GB combined with a $50 price reduction in the US on the Xbox 360 Arcade and Elite consoles, now US$149.99 and US$249.99 respectively, has resulted in a significant sales spike for Xbox 360 since the new console hit shelves on or around June 14.&#8221;...

Had sales substantially increased when Titanfall hit then Microsoft would have stated that Titanfall resulted in a significant sales spike. It's what everyone expected. Had it happened you'd be here wanting to discount it.

...Is your contention that major hardware and software releases don't impact hardware sales?...

Of course they do, but not with anywhere near the sort of correlation people like to think. In this very thread people were attacking me for suggesting that the PS4 would see a likely decline this month before the exact numbers were leaked and I was proven correct. Their logic ran something like "LOL WATCHDOGS LDO!"

 

[jvm]

Best post-results thread revival in a while. Bravo.

 

[Opiate]

In most any field of statistics and probability that'd be called results oriented thinking.

As a statistician-in-training, I can tell you this is wrong. It's a rather straightforward case of modeling: your model includes variables which increase its accuracy, while of course avoiding the potential for overfitting.

It is reasonable to include variables other than "what month is it," although I agree that the month is an important consideration, particularly when discussing the Holidays. These other variables probably would include a price cut. As an example, you might be able to show that a typical April has slightly lower sales than the typical March (I don't know that that's true, it's simply an example). However, if the PS4 were getting a price cut in April, we would not apply a facile model and insist the PS4 will sell worse in April because our model generally shows slower sales in April than in March, and that we refuse to account for price cuts as a variable.

I definitely agree that "system seller" is a very difficult variable to quantify. It isn't as simple as "games which sell a lot of copies are system sellers," as many games which sell lots of copies don't produce a noticeable bulge in sales. It seems to matter that a game is exclusive to a console. It seems to matter that the game is a new IP or an unexpected hit. But modeling that precisely and quantifying it is very hard. However, that doesn't mean we should therefore give up and pretend system sellers don't exist or that they don't affect our data; they clearly do exist and MGS4 is at least one (fairly modest) example of it.

 

[dolemite]

I will be impressed if PS4 sales are >200k in June. It's a 5-week month but the PS4 sales were elevated in May by the release of Watch Dogs. As for XBone, anything >150k will be a "win" for MSFT.

 

[Opiate]

I will be impressed if PS4 sales are >200k in June. It's a 5-week month but the PS4 sales were elevated in May by the release of Watch Dogs. As for XBone, anything >150k will be a "win" for MSFT.

I think dire is likely right that we overestimate changes in sales caused by games like Watch_Dogs, and that monthly sales typically represent a baseline value that is only very modestly affected by specific game releases. Further, I think most of the titles which end up being true "system sellers" are games we cannot easily anticipate, such as Wii Sports or GTAIII, which are not known to be major quantities beforehand but which become as such afterwards.

If that analysis is correct, sales in the 250-300k range are reasonable, and sales above 350k or below 200k are plausible but less likely.

 

[shinra-bansho]

MGS4 is more notable in terms of "system selling" software because it was bundled (at no additional cost I believe); that bundle accounted for half or more of PS3 sales that June, based on Anita Frazier's comments, which saw a 300% increase y/y.

Best post-results thread revival in a while. Bravo.

An aside, but I miss your columns.

 

[Fattony12000]

I have bought four Nintendo video games this week.

 

[dolemite]

I have bought four Nintendo video games this week.

Your games would make a top 40 in the UK for that week.

 

[Mpl90]

360	PS3	WII	WIU
1.3		
1.3	1.2	1.1
1.2	[B][I][U]1.9[/U][/I][/B]	1.0
1.4	1.3	1.2
[B][I][U]2.3[/U][/I]	[I][U]2.0[/U][/I][/B]	1.3
[B][I][U]1.9[/U]	1.6[/I][/B]	1.2
[B][I]1.6[/I][/B]	1.5	1.3
1.2	1.3	1.5	1.3

Jun/May console multipliers.
Bold italics > 50% M/M increase.
Underlined, at/near/greater than 100% M/M increase.

Thanks for this, shinra. This is much better than the prospect I posted earlier in the thread.

Yeah, except for special cases, like new SKUs / price cuts / bundles with heavily anticipated games, the May-to-June increase is usually around 40-50% at max, with 60% being an isolated case, while the super major increases are, again, special cases due to special conditions.

Above all, it seems that the increases are bigger also when the console has a lower price, which can be seen in later 360 and PS3 years. Wii, despite the low launch price, is in the low range of increases also because...well, for many years, it sold so highly that, while the MOM increases were supbar, numbers were still massive (or even shortages probems, as happened during the first two years).

So, I'd say that, for One and PS4, we should consider the 30% increase as the most plausible basic MOM change, with adjustments due to May releases (Watch Dogs) / June new events (Kinectless SKU) to be made on top of that: both start from $399.99, which doesn't strike me as that low and favourable for real mass adoption.

 

[Tripon]

I have bought four Nintendo video games this week.

3 Nintendo games, and a refurb system from Nintendo for my wedding gift to my brother who is getting married next month.

I suppose the refurb doesn't count towards system totals.

 

[Cornbread78]

3 Nintendo games, and a refurb system from Nintendo for my wedding gift to my brother who is getting married next month.

I suppose the refurb doesn't count towards system totals.

If his wife's not a gamer, your going to be "that guy," lol. Be prepared fro the wrath...


@JVM, yup, pretty entertaining stuff....



Do we have full LTD numbers for NA and EU for the big three systems yet?

 

[jvm]

An aside, but I miss your columns.

Thanks. I wish I had the time.

Spoiler

My life afforded me that time before, but when offered a chance to take on additional responsibility at work, I took it on. That's left me less time for other things. So, when I have had a choice between writing a column and spending time with my family, I've chosen the latter. I hope everyone understands.

 

[Tripon]

If his wife's not a gamer, your going to be "that guy," lol. Be prepared fro the wrath...


@JVM, yup, pretty entertaining stuff....



Do we have full LTD numbers for NA and EU for the big three systems yet?

Nah, I asked them what they wanted, and they wanted to play the new Mario Kart. So I got that, Donkey Kong TP, and a pre-order on Smash Wii U as my free game.

All told, I'm spending around $330 with tax and shipping for everything. Not that bad considering the other option I was considering was a PS4 for them, which the system by itself would have cost more total.

 

[Fattony12000]

Your games would make a top 40 in the UK for that week.

Ooooh...errr...maybe not so much...

The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (Wii)
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (3DS)
Game & Wario (Wii U)
Wii Party U (Wii U)

3 Nintendo games, and a refurb system from Nintendo for my wedding gift to my brother who is getting married next month.

I suppose the refurb doesn't count towards system totals.

Our Wii U was brand new when we bought it last year!

This batch of games were all new and sealed too...soo...

I'm helping?


Vita means life.

 

[EGM1966]

This thread has more legs than some games - and in fact watching Dire duck and dive multiple posters logic has almost become a game in itself.

For myself I'm interested in the question of how much Kinect had on 360 and whether it was very short lived or even a bit of a red-herring. I've seen this raised a number a times and the question fascinates me.

On paper it does seem like 360 gets a nice mid-life boost via Kinect. But then sales of Kinect itself seem to fade as do the sales of Kinect games, while other genres kept on trucking reliably on 360.

I can't decide if it did genuinely drive additional demand and the issue with XB1 and included Kinect is just price point and early gen driving away the demographic that bought into 360 after Kinect released and if MS can stablize XB1 then can bring Kinect back into stronger play later or

If Kinect was a very short term boost driven more by marketing and the associated Wii success that in fact quickly faded (as evidenced by drop of in demand for the device and its software) and MS is over-investing it the appeared interest they themselves artificially genereted for a short period of time or

Kinect barely made any real difference and the strong 360 performance was driven by lowering price points, new model and increased adoption of HD TV and interest in HD gaming and Kinect's influence is more of a false signal

One thing is for sure, the demand for Kinect doesn't seem to have translated or at least initially anyway if there is demand for it.

 

[Tripon]

This thread has more legs than some games - and in fact watching Dire duck and dive multiple posters logic has almost become a game in itself.

For myself I'm interested in the question of how much Kinect had on 360 and whether it was very short lived or even a bit of a red-herring. I've seen this raised a number a times and the question fascinates me.

On paper it does seem like 360 gets a nice mid-life boost via Kinect. But then sales of Kinect itself seem to fade as do the sales of Kinect games, while other genres kept on trucking reliably on 360.

I can't decide if it did genuinely drive additional demand and the issue with XB1 and included Kinect is just price point and early gen driving away the demographic that bought into 360 after Kinect released and if MS can stablize XB1 then can bring Kinect back into stronger play later or

If Kinect was a very short term boost driven more by marketing and the associated Wii success that in fact quickly faded (as evidenced by drop of in demand for the device and its software) and MS is over-investing it the appeared interest they themselves artificially genereted for a short period of time or

Kinect barely made any real difference and the strong 360 performance was driven by lowering price points, new model and increased adoption of HD TV and interest in HD gaming and Kinect's influence is more of a false signal

One thing is for sure, the demand for Kinect doesn't seem to have translated or at least initially anyway if there is demand for it.

I think you can make an argument that the Kinect is attached too expensive hardware at the moment. The original Kinect sold well because there was millions of families who already had a 360 in their homes, and the Kinect promised that more family members would be able to use it, not just the son or Dad who loved to player shooters on it.

With the XB1, you're asking them to buy a new system that is $500, or $400 and then buy the Kinect 2.0 separately for $100+. That is a daunting task, to ask for families, or anyone to do.

If it is possible, I'd say get the Kinect 2.0 to work on the original 360 and PCs, and try to get that sucker into as many homes as possible. Hell, just sell the Kinect 2.0 as an upgrade to your existing Kinect, and see what happens.

 

[prag16]

It's been a while since I've done such testing but wouldn't you start by testing if the data in question passes the basic normality tests? And would we use all the data points so n = 23? Because I wouldn't feel too confident in testing where n = 8 [for example just with the 360's data]

In my opinion you guys are doing way too much to humor this guy. There's NOTHING valid that would make 300k the expected target here for PS4 in June, let alone 400k. NOTHING. We don't need to do any of this to determine that.

Don't need to get caught up in the weeds with this statistical analysis when what he's saying is absurd on its face to begin with.