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Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine

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“In a blunt assessment of Russia in Ukraine, @ChiefMI6 Richard Moore tells me Russia is “about to run out of steam” and “over the next few weeks, they will have to pause in some way and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back.” Jim Sciutto on Twitter​


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twitter.com/jimsci...

Fuck Putler and all those Ruzzians:
angry captain hook GIF
 

TwinB242

Member

Eh, I would take this with a grain of salt. I remember just a month into the war many 'experts' were saying Russia's army was about collapse, and that was clearly not the case. Im keeping my expectations in check until I can see this for myself. Though admittedly they've made very little progress for a few weeks now which is a positive sign.
 
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Tams

Member
Eh, I would take this with a grain of salt. I remember just a month into the war many 'experts' were saying Russia's army was about collapse, and that was clearly not the case. Im keeping my expectations in check until I can see this for myself. Though admittedly they've made very little progress for a few weeks now which is a positive sign.
Yeah, but this is the head of MI6 (or rather SIS).

Though he is a spook, so who knows what games he's up to. Whatever it is, his comment will have been very well considered.
 
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Ozriel

M$FT
Eh, I would take this with a grain of salt. I remember just a month into the war many 'experts' were saying Russia's army was about collapse, and that was clearly not the case. Im keeping my expectations in check until I can see this for myself. Though admittedly they've made very little progress for a few weeks now which is a positive sign.

I think you’re misrepresenting what the experts were saying. Not a total collapse, but a massive setback. And it absolutely happened with the complete defeat of the invasion efforts at Kyiv. That 60km column? defeated and thrown back.

The attempts at Kharkiv? Ukrainians counterattacked and drove them back across the border.

It’s really only in the Luhansk theater where they focused a ton of artillery at one city at a time that they’ve made any significant progress since the first month of fighting.

They haven’t been winning pitched battles with their armor. Still have no air superiority and can’t use their helicopters to influence the war. Gave up on Odessa completely.
 

akimbo009

Gold Member
Eh, I would take this with a grain of salt. I remember just a month into the war many 'experts' were saying Russia's army was about collapse, and that was clearly not the case. Im keeping my expectations in check until I can see this for myself. Though admittedly they've made very little progress for a few weeks now which is a positive sign.
They already failed at their second, third, and fourth objectives. They have already lost geopolitically, and are a dead army walking.

I'll eat my hat if they get any more significant gains here on out.
 

TwinB242

Member
I think you’re misrepresenting what the experts were saying. Not a total collapse, but a massive setback. And it absolutely happened with the complete defeat of the invasion efforts at Kyiv. That 60km column? defeated and thrown back.

The attempts at Kharkiv? Ukrainians counterattacked and drove them back across the border.

It’s really only in the Luhansk theater where they focused a ton of artillery at one city at a time that they’ve made any significant progress since the first month of fighting.

They haven’t been winning pitched battles with their armor. Still have no air superiority and can’t use their helicopters to influence the war. Gave up on Odessa completely.
Ukranians were pushed back from the Kharkiv border though, and thats the problem. They haven't showed the ability to capture and then hold large portions of land for very long. They can take over a village here and there but there are hundreds of them in some of these occupied oblasts so the progress they've been making is incredibly slow and the Russians are using that to their advantage by slowly pulling in more troops and building up defenses in those occupied territories.

Maybe the rumored major counteroffensive will change things, but at this point its hard to be very optimistic given how little the frontlines have moved in both the North and South.
 
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sinnergy

Member
Ukranians were pushed back from the Kharkiv border though, and thats the problem. They haven't showed the ability to capture and then hold large portions of land for very long. They can take over a village here and there but there are hundreds of them in some of these occupied oblasts so the progress they've been making is incredibly slow and the Russians are using that to their advantage by slowly pulling in more troops and building up defenses in those occupied territories.

Maybe the rumored major counteroffensive will change things, but at this point its hard to be very optimistic given how little the frontlines have moved in both the North and South.
Yup, doesn’t look good .
 

Kraz

Banned
Ukranians were pushed back from the Kharkiv border though, and thats the problem. They haven't showed the ability to capture and then hold large portions of land for very long. They can take over a village here and there but there are hundreds of them in some of these occupied oblasts so the progress they've been making is incredibly slow and the Russians are using that to their advantage by slowly pulling in more troops and building up defenses in those occupied territories.
It's easy to see why you're pissymistic given the information and analysis you limit yourself to.

Maybe the rumored major counteroffensive will change things, but at this point its hard to be very optimistic given how little the frontlines have moved in both the North and South.
Yeah, maybe huh?
 

Atrus

Gold Member
We need to do more as western countries, sending much more advanced weapons , wear the Russians down faster ..

I agree. There needs to be a leader among the countries to coordinate with all involved toward crushing Russia’s expeditionary forces.

Jointly fund and mobilize production to mass produce the right kind of weapons in the quantities needed, and to science up new tech to deal with the obstacles that crop up.
 

sinnergy

Member
I agree. There needs to be a leader among the countries to coordinate with all involved toward crushing Russia’s expeditionary forces.

Jointly fund and mobilize production to mass produce the right kind of weapons in the quantities needed, and to science up new tech to deal with the obstacles that crop up.
Yeah this is going way to slow with all the politics…
 

FunkMiller

Banned
Rather disturbing summation of Germany’s increasing weakness about the war.



If Germany ends up aiding and abetting Russia through its own selfish desire to not suffer economic damage, it will be a stain that will follow them for decades.
 

supernova8

Banned
Ukranians were pushed back from the Kharkiv border though, and thats the problem. They haven't showed the ability to capture and then hold large portions of land for very long. They can take over a village here and there but there are hundreds of them in some of these occupied oblasts so the progress they've been making is incredibly slow and the Russians are using that to their advantage by slowly pulling in more troops and building up defenses in those occupied territories.

Maybe the rumored major counteroffensive will change things, but at this point its hard to be very optimistic given how little the frontlines have moved in both the North and South.

The problem is that Western countries (especially the US) are not really providing enough heavy weaponry. US sent a couple of HIMARS... a couple! Big whoop! I think Russia/Putin have shown that they are not really going to start a military confrontation with the West over their supply of weapons to Ukraine, so I'm a bit confused as to why they are still being slow.

I'm guessing their fear/calculation is that Russia being defeated is what might start a confrontation with the West as opposed to the act itself of providing Ukraine with weapons. As such, it looks as though the West is supplying Ukraine with enough to keep fighting and force something close to a stalemate but not enough to genuinely push back Russian forces.
 

Vlodril

Member
Rather disturbing summation of Germany’s increasing weakness about the war.



If Germany ends up aiding and abetting Russia through its own selfish desire to not suffer economic damage, it will be a stain that will follow them for decades.


Ironic since they insisted Greece (and others) pay dearly for their bad choices. Seems they are not as eager to pay for theirs.
 

Ellery

Member
Ironic since they insisted Greece (and others) pay dearly for their bad choices. Seems they are not as eager to pay for theirs.

Do you mean the same Greece that received billions and billions of bailouts while at the same time is allowed to wait until 2032 to even beging to start paying back the debt to the EU (which btw Germany is the by far biggest net contributor to and as you can imagine greece is a beneficiary). And then also still increasing their debt?

All they did was agree to get a lot of money and pay back later. They haven't even started ("Under the agreement, Greece doesn’t have to pay any of its money until 2032 - which represents a 10-year extension in the maturities of its debt.").

What reality are you living in ???
 

Kenpachii

Member
Do you mean the same Greece that received billions and billions of bailouts while at the same time is allowed to wait until 2032 to even beging to start paying back the debt to the EU (which btw Germany is the by far biggest net contributor to and as you can imagine greece is a beneficiary). And then also still increasing their debt?

All they did was agree to get a lot of money and pay back later. They haven't even started ("Under the agreement, Greece doesn’t have to pay any of its money until 2032 - which represents a 10-year extension in the maturities of its debt.").

What reality are you living in ???

U can bet greece will pay zero back like they always do. its fucking useless.
 

Ellery

Member
U can bet greece will pay zero back like they always do. its fucking useless.

I guess to be completely honest I have no clue how most of the world, and I can probably include many big nations into that, will ever pay back the debt. Do western nations expect gigantic growth whilst facing birth rate decline, climate change and global political tension and then easily pay back debt that would usually take 10 generations to pay back? And during all that we make more debt. They can't even keep up with paying the interest of debt basically.

What I don't understand is how easily greek people are being manipulated into hating the hand that feeds them. Very easy for greece politicians to put the blame on successful EU nations when in reality their policies completely failed.
 

nemiroff

Gold Member
It took ruzzia less than 24 hours after signing the grain export agreement to attack Odesa grain export ports..

Holy fuck these guys.. Literally crazy. If ruzzia was a movie it would be deemed utterly ridiculous and unrealistic fiction.
 
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Ozriel

M$FT
It took ruzzia less than 24 hours after signing the grain export agreement to attack Odesa grain export ports..

Holy fuck these guys.. Literally crazy. If ruzzia was a movie it would be deemed utterly ridiculous and unrealistic fiction.

Fucking evil orcs.

I hope this spurs the rest of the world on to provide the weapons they need. Ukraine should be given the 300km missiles so they hit the Russian ships and infrastructure at Sevastopol anytime Odessa gets hit.
 

Gp1

Member
About Grains, Russia, fertilizer and the middle east.




I guess to be completely honest I have no clue how most of the world, and I can probably include many big nations into that, will ever pay back the debt. Do western nations expect gigantic growth whilst facing birth rate decline, climate change and global political tension and then easily pay back debt that would usually take 10 generations to pay back? And during all that we make more debt. They can't even keep up with paying the interest of debt basically.

No one will repay it. Everyone will roll-up debt and try to maintain it at "comfortable" level.

The thing is, we haven't t even entered the new normal world of high interest rates to curb inflation in the debts equation. We'll have exciting days ahead.
 
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sinnergy

Member
It took ruzzia less than 24 hours after signing the grain export agreement to attack Odesa grain export ports..

Holy fuck these guys.. Literally crazy. If ruzzia was a movie it would be deemed utterly ridiculous and unrealistic fiction.
All that talking .. it’s worthless , instead that time could be used to mark up war plans .. in how to destroy Russia.
 

ShadowNate

Member
Do you mean the same Greece that
The same Greece that was invaded, its people killed, some communities nearly eliminated and then occupied by Germany (and Italy) in WWII because unlike other countries we chose to resist and did actually resist enough to delay the German forces and keep them from moving further.

Do you really want to have this conversation?
 

Ellery

Member
The same Greece that was invaded, its people killed, some communities nearly eliminated and then occupied by Germany (and Italy) in WWII because unlike other countries we chose to resist and did actually resist enough to delay the German forces and keep them from moving further.

Do you really want to have this conversation?

If by "having this conversation" you mean derailing this thread to talk about nazi germany 80 year ago then my answer is nope. I think this thread should focus on the Ukraine topic and not whataboutism chain reaction.
 

Facism

Member
If by "having this conversation" you mean derailing this thread to talk about nazi germany 80 year ago then my answer is nope. I think this thread should focus on the Ukraine topic and not whataboutism chain reaction.

"What about" Its the classic response tbh.
 

ShadowNate

Member
If by "having this conversation" you mean derailing this thread to talk about nazi germany 80 year ago then my answer is nope. I think this thread should focus on the Ukraine topic and not whataboutism chain reaction.
I mean you went off on how Greece mismanaged their debt on your own. And I am arguing that it's not whataboutism, when there's a strong connection between what Russian is doing to Ukraine now (invasion, genocide, constant references to Nazis (as a go to excuse for the invasion and as a real parallel with how Russia and Putin is behaving, how Germany is stalling) , with the situation of WWII -- and a strong case that a WWIII is a very real scenario if more NATO or more countries get more aggressive in helping either side.

I definitely don't want a derail though. I'm happy to have written my piece on this.
 
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Idiocracy

Member
Germany has a really bad case pointing fingers at others when they made a policy of relying on russian energy. What Greece did was horrible and they were shit on for it.
Germany deserves a lot of shit for their reliance on russian energy, Merkel and Schöder decieded to bet on Putin, even though Putin's russia had plenty of red flags
Germany wants cheap from energy Russia, and its fucking disgusting.
 

akimbo009

Gold Member
The same Greece that was invaded, its people killed, some communities nearly eliminated and then occupied by Germany (and Italy) in WWII because unlike other countries we chose to resist and did actually resist enough to delay the German forces and keep them from moving further.

Do you really want to have this conversation?

There's some weird Germany fetish here that people rally around them even with their failures at obvious - usually by blaming others as part of the deflection as you see here about Greece.

Germany has been poor to super shitty in their support of Ukraine. It's in the public record and easy to recognize - not sure why there's any argument about it. If we want this war to end sooner, put pressure on German leadership and stop getting all weird about Greece - cause they can't do anything but Germany can.
 
Rather disturbing summation of Germany’s increasing weakness about the war.



If Germany ends up aiding and abetting Russia through its own selfish desire to not suffer economic damage, it will be a stain that will follow them for decades.

Ah yes, the selfish desire to remain a socially stable country. I'm glad our politicians aren't complete dumbfucks and aren't leading us into ruin for no good reason.

Fun, barely related fact: Annalena Baerbock is basically my neighbor.
 

FunkMiller

Banned
Ah yes, the selfish desire to remain a socially stable country. I'm glad our politicians aren't complete dumbfucks and aren't leading us into ruin for no good reason.

Fun, barely related fact: Annalena Baerbock is basically my neighbor.

Please. Germany is in no danger of being destabilised. Spare me the ridiculous hyperbole. It got caught with its pants down from making a massive fucking mistake, and now won’t do the right thing to correct it.
 
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Please. Germany is in no danger of being destabilised. Spare me the ridiculous hyperbole. It got caught with its pants down from making a massive fucking mistake, and now won’t do the right thing to correct it.
An unstable Germany (and thus EU) is exactly what Putin wants. I'm glad we're not giving him that.

Yes, mistakes were made, but that's how it goes. Hopefully we'll learn from them. Btw, Ukraine also made a mistake when it destroyed its nukes in 1994.
 

FunkMiller

Banned
An unstable Germany (and thus EU) is exactly what Putin wants. I'm glad we're not giving him that.

Yes, mistakes were made, but that's how it goes. Hopefully we'll learn from them. Btw, Ukraine also made a mistake when it destroyed its nukes in 1994.

Again… there is no chance of an ‘unstable’ Germany.

A poorer Germany though? Absolutely.
 

Kraz

Banned
It took ruzzia less than 24 hours after signing the grain export agreement to attack Odesa grain export ports..

Holy fuck these guys.. Literally crazy. If ruzzia was a movie it would be deemed utterly ridiculous and unrealistic fiction.
When asked Friday if he trusted Russia to uphold its end of the deal,
"Canada's confidence in Russia's reliability is pretty much nil. They have demonstrated nothing but poor faith,"

About how everyone felt about it.

It reinforces the notion across the ocean that Ukraine should get plenty of those anti missile defense systems Zelensky has been asking for.

On another note I remember Costa Rica being represented in the thread early on supporting Ukraine. Good to see Zelensky mention the nation's work this week.
 

Dr.D00p

Member
In Europe, the more things change, the more they stay the same, The sad reality of this war, dying with your buddy in a muddy field.

Supposedly showing Ukrainian soldiers, but who knows, could be from either side, given all the disinformation going about...

 
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