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[M1chl]

To be fair, the Russian Buk-M1 missile system has been proven in combat to be extremely effective in downing mid-to-large bodied civilian aircraft

And it also grew a conscience:

 

[ShadowNate]

not complaining but how on Earth could that happen? lol

 

[nemiroff]

The Russian reason given for the pause is that their troops just need some rest, and time to get letters from home and stuff. I obviously don't believe that, and that is not the reason I said they were taking the pause for.
I'm not really sure why you are being so aggressive here. Nothing I said is controversial, and I never said the things you are asking.

IDK, but it's kinda hard to find corroborated causation to your correlation based on a general notion on "operational pauses". I just read the first google searched article which you suggested and to me it didn't really back up this theory when it comes to artillery/rocket strikes.

Normally ruzzia sends 20,000 (!) artillery shells into Ukrainian territory every day (Ukraine do 6,000 daily). From what I've gathered it wouldn't make that much sense for ruzzia to pause their shelling. The operational pause is AFAIK, someone correct me if wrong, mostly about offenses to gain territory. The map may therefore be more accurate that suggested. But then again; I'm no expert myself.

Anyway, the "regular" HIMARS seem to have a longer range than what's been previously suggested. What I just read suggested that in calm wind conditions the range may be up to 100km (?).. And that means the long-range HIMARS may also be low-balled. And with no S-300/400 protection.. = Holy shit..

 

[Nobody_Important]

You love to see it lol

 

[M1chl]

not complaining but how on Earth could that happen? lol

There was some thread about this and it's mainly that you have to switch off radar, when you launching the rocket, otherwise it will lock onto that signature.

 

[Deleted member 1159]

There’s still light in the world

 

[Sakura]

IDK, but it's kinda hard to find corroborated causation to your correlation based on a general notion on "operational pauses". I just read the first google searched article which you suggested and to me it didn't really back up this theory when it comes to artillery/rocket strikes.

Normally ruzzia sends 20,000 (!) artillery shells into Ukrainian territory every day (Ukraine do 6,000 daily). From what I've gathered it wouldn't make that much sense for ruzzia to pause their shelling. The operational pause is AFAIK, someone correct me if wrong, mostly about offenses to gain territory. The map may therefore be more accurate that suggested. But then again; I'm no expert myself.

Anyway, the "regular" HIMARS seem to have a longer range than what's been previously suggested. What I just read suggested that in calm wind conditions the range may be up to 100km (?).. And that means the long-range HIMARS may also be low-balled. And with no S-300/400 protection.. = Holy shit..

The original tweet this stemmed from was comparing missile strikes, not artillery shelling, it was also a comparison done specifically in the Donbas, where the Russians had made their major offensive, and where the pause is mainly taking (took?) place. It is not an image showing all of Ukraine. Also, a pause does not mean 0 strikes. It will mean reduced strikes though. It takes men to operate every piece of equipment. You need men to supply it. You need men to find targets. Etc. If they are pausing to reconstitute their remaining forces, there will be a necessary reduction there. The number of missile strikes are also going to be related to what the forces are currently doing. Leading up to the capture of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, for example, it was said that Russian missile strikes had more than doubled.
The article you read probably got their information from here https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-8 so you can read more if you'd like.

Edit:
On further analysis, the map in question looks like it is just a fire map, and not a map on missile strikes in the first place.

 

[nemiroff]

The original tweet this stemmed from was comparing missile strikes, not artillery shelling, it was also a comparison done specifically in the Donbas, where the Russians had made their major offensive, and where the pause is mainly taking (took?) place. It is not an image showing all of Ukraine. Also, a pause does not mean 0 strikes. It will mean reduced strikes though. It takes men to operate every piece of equipment. You need men to supply it. You need men to find targets. Etc. If they are pausing to reconstitute their remaining forces, there will be a necessary reduction there. The number of missile strikes are also going to be related to what the forces are currently doing. Leading up to the capture of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, for example, it was said that Russian missile strikes had more than doubled.
The article you read probably got their information from here https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-8 so you can read more if you'd like.

Edit:
On further analysis, the map in question looks like it is just a fire map, and not a map on missile strikes in the first place.

These are maps generated from FIRMS satellite data which registers the heat source of any type of strike or fire, artillery or rocket doesn't matter.

Several news outlets have made reference to these maps the last few days and contributed most of the calm to the HIMARS and other type of precision strikes, the last one I saw was Newsweek. But experts they are probably not.

 

[Sakura]

These are maps generated from FIRMS satellite data which registers the heat source of any type of strike or fire, artillery or rocket doesn't matter.

Several news outlets have made reference to these maps the last few days and contributed most of the calm to the HIMARS and other type of precision strikes, the last one I saw was Newsweek. But experts they are probably not.

The fire maps are largely useless.
For example, here is Italy today:

Probably not caused by missile strikes.

Or here is Ukraine from some time a year ago:

I think that is less than there are in the same region today.
Not all fires are caused by artillery/missile strikes, and not all strikes cause fires. They also vary widely day by day. Fire maps are largely useless for determining that kind of data.

 

[Kraz]

Not all fires are caused by artillery/missile strikes, and not all strikes cause fires. Fire maps are largely useless for determining that kind of data.

So you think that Ukrainians and others beside you don't know the source of fires in their own regions and can't remove those from the data to make the claim?

 

[nemiroff]

The fire maps are largely useless.
For example, here is Italy today:

Probably not caused by missile strikes.

Or here is Ukraine from some time a year ago:


I think that is less than there are in the same region today.
Not all fires are caused by artillery/missile strikes, and not all strikes cause fires. They also vary widely day by day. Fire maps are largely useless for determining that kind of data.

Jesus.. So it's suddenly useless now.. All you need is a satellite that registers a heatsource, a pattern, a map and a brain.

 

[Sakura]

So you think that Ukrainians and others beside you don't know the source of fires in their own regions and can't remove those from the data to make the claim?

First off, the tweet is by someone who is not a Ukrainian and not in Ukraine, so I'm not sure I understand your point in that regard.
Furthermore, there is no data being removed or anything. It is just a screenshot from FIRMS. You can look at FIRMS yourself, and analyze the firemaps yourself to your heart's content. You don't need me to tell you that.

Jesus.. So it's suddenly useless now.. All you need is a satellite that registers a heatsource, a pattern, a map and a brain.

Did I say it is useless? No, I said it is largely useless, which would imply there is some use that can be obtained. Of course there is a correlation between heavy fighting and fires. But how many strikes result in fires? What proportion of fires on the firemap are from strikes? Unless you are filtering for that data, then yes, it is largely useless. The firemap used in the tweet does not filter for that data. And in reality, it would make much more sense to mark reported strikes on a map. But that takes actual work, so people prefer to use firemaps, which are not designed for that purpose.
I don't understand why you guys want to keep arguing about some random tweet.

 

[Kraz]

First off, the tweet is by someone who is not a Ukrainian and not in Ukraine, so I'm not sure I understand your point in that regard.
Furthermore, there is no data being removed or anything. It is just a screenshot from FIRMS. You can look at FIRMS yourself, and analyze the firemaps yourself to your heart's content. You don't need me to tell you that.

Did I say it is useless? No, I said it is largely useless, which would imply there is some use that can be obtained. Of course there is a correlation between heavy fighting and fires. But how many strikes result in fires? What proportion of fires on the firemap are from strikes? Unless you are filtering for that data, then yes, it is largely useless. The firemap used in the tweet does not filter for that data. And in reality, it would make much more sense to mark reported strikes on a map. But that takes actual work, so people prefer to use firemaps, which are not designed for that purpose.
I don't understand why you guys want to keep arguing about some random tweet.

It was in regards to your defense of attack on the validity the news sources mentioned in the post you quoted with regards to your definitive statement

Not all fires are caused by artillery/missile strikes, and not all strikes cause fires. They also vary widely day by day. Fire maps are largely useless for determining that kind of data.

Which implies you think these sources, which may include the Ukrainian military(they've said the same), don't account for "not all strikes cause fires" or that not all fires are strikes.

Do you understand now?

 

[sinnergy]

Very bad , we don’t need a Hitler rewind ..

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

Russians fear storing ammunition in depots following Ukrainian artillery strikes They now bring ammo directly to battlefield, complicating logistics. "Earlier, had big advantage in firepower; thanx to W arms, grew stronger"- Luhansk OblHead Haidai​

twitter.com/Euroma...

 

[NoLootBoxDev]

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

The fire maps are largely useless.

I don't know man, the fire map traces the front line in the ukraine map... https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@35.4,47.4,7z

What people do is follow the dots, use satellite data, etc, to confirm/deny wether a firms hit is result of war or not. They're a starting point.

 

[sinnergy]

The more the better

 

[Tams]

Lol, probably goes a long way in explaining why Turkey so quickly did a U-turn over Finland and Sweden joining NATO with few concessions being made to them.

 

[TwinB242]

Im still impressed by just how much absolute nonsense the Russian propagandists can get away with spewing on state TV. Whats even worse is that a lot of normal Russians actually believe everything thats being said

 

[Kraz]

The article is labeled as opinion, but it's the opinion of the Finnish Foreign Affairs Minister not the opinion of the writer.
Pertinent is the info related to the background workings to join NATO. Things that smoothed it.
It brings some intended secondary consideration regarding future voting choices within the readers jurisdictions for foreign policy alignment and consistency going forward with support for Ukraine.
Also that a peaceful person like the Minister changed so much due to the invasion says how close to home this hits for people.

Susan Delacourt: How Canada helped lead Sweden and Finland into NATO

Finland’s foreign affairs minister says Canada provided “significant” reassurance that Finland and Sweden would get the unanimous approval they need from NATO’s 30 member countries.

www.thestar.com

Haavisto, a leading member of the Green League party, has run twice for president in Finland. Not only was he the first openly gay candidate in the country’s history, but he was also the first man to seek that job who opted for non-military service in Finland’s compulsory conscription program.

“The morning of the 24th, it felt like a shock. It felt like, ‘Aha, it’s our generation. We are in a war again,’” he said. “It’s that feeling that you are waking up in a totally different world.”

Before Russia’s hostile march into Ukraine, a vast majority of Finns, including the foreign affairs minister, were not keen to join NATO. Neutrality seemed a preferable approach. A poll a month before the invasion showed only 28 per cent public support for the NATO option, with 42 per cent opposed. By early March, that figure was up to 48 per cent and it’s only been climbing since.

In mid-May, Prime Minister Sanna Marin was ready to announce that Finland “must apply for NATO membership without delay.”

Here in Canada, that didn’t come as a surprise. Quietly, more than a month earlier, Joly had dropped into Helsinki and had dinner with Haavisto and his officials to talk about this profound shift in attitude toward NATO. It was at that dinner that things got rolling for Joly and Canada to help get Finland and Sweden fast-tracked for NATO membership.

“Canada has been very systematically supporting us,” Haavisto says and noted, as Joly does, that their shared interests as Arctic nations played a major role in the discussions.

Canada, like Finland and Sweden, is part of the Arctic Council — an eight-nation intergovernmental forum that also includes the United States and Russia. Because of the crisis in Ukraine, the council suspended co-operation until just last month, when it announced it would resume its work — without Russia.

“For us, Canada, it was critically strategic to have them (as members), because now at this point, seven out of the eight countries will be part of NATO,” Joly said.

In the meantime, though, Joly notes Canada will be treating Finland and Sweden as permanent members already. The three nations will also be looking at what needs to be done in the Arctic to protect it from potential Russian aggression.

I asked Haavisto whether Finland’s new-found support for NATO might diminish over the long haul, once the Ukraine crisis is over. If everyone, including the foreign minister, could have a change of mind so quickly, could the pro-NATO sentiment just as quickly vanish?

No, Haavisto says. “This is not the temporary change. This is really change in the long term.”

 

[Kraz]

Russia threatens Swiss newspaper over Putin caricature

Russia has threatened Swiss newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung with legal action after it published a caricature of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

www.swissinfo.ch

 

[Tams]

The Russian stooges, trolls, and useful idiots seem to have quitened down recently. Here and elsewhere.

I think the HIMARS strikes have really got to them. I'd say the Russian forces/orcs continued atrocities, but they just dismiss them.

 

[Kraz]

The Russian stooges, trolls, and useful idiots seem to have quitened down recently. Here and elsewhere.

I think the HIMARS strikes have really got to them.

Nah, that's just Russia taking a pause after a big advance.

Spoiler

/s
just in case a recent discussion was missed

 

[Tams]

Nah, that's just Russia taking a pause after a big advance.

Spoiler

/s
just in case a recent discussion was missed

I mean, it does seem their actual forces (not their troll army) are. They need to make up for all the men they sent to the slaughter.

 

[Kraz]

I mean, it does seem their actual forces (not their troll army) are. They need to make up for all the men they sent to the slaughter.

Yeah, in the sense that it's the same type of pause as when they withdrew from the north when they made a big advance, got pounded back and had to change objectives and redistribute forces.

Semantics, but seemingly important distinction between a successful objective advance winning/pause and unsuccessful objective advance slaughtered/pause.

 

[IDKFA]

I'm surprised this war is still going on. Considering how bad it has gone for Russia, I'd have thought they would have thrown in the towel by now and just claimed what they can from the east. They clearly didn't think Ukraine would put up this much of a fight.

Hopefully a Ukrainian push, combined with further NATO support and the long term economic impact will see Russia lose this war and pull by the end of the year.

Although I agree Russia have received high number of casualties, I'd be careful taking sources from these Twitter "news" channels. This one seems really questionable with the #GTTO in its profile.

 

[winjer]

Does ‘third world countries’ include Ukraine? Because that’s who Russia is currently fighting. People don’t seem to be aware of it, but Ukraine actually has the biggest land army in Europe (except for Russia) by far. And they’re well equipped too, having received US arms before and during the current war. I doubt there’s any European country that could’ve beaten the Ukrainian army in a conventional war. And not only that, but the Russian forces in Ukraine are actually outnumbered by the Ukrainians. This isn’t Iraq or Afghanistan; Ukraine’s military is far beyond anything the US has fought in the last 50 years.

You are over-estimating the Ukrainian army. They had a ton of problems with their military organization. Most of their weapons were from the USSR.
That the Ukraine is managing to hold against Russia in a very impressive feat for the Ukraine. And also a very impressive feat of incompetence for the Russian officers.
Size of an army is not that important in modern times.
Considering the level of corruption and incompetence in the Russian army, and their lack of technological prowess, any country with a modern army could beat Russia in a conventional war.

P.S.:
But the term originally was meant to describe alignment during the Cold War.
So First world countries are capitalistic/democratic countries. Second world countries are communist/authoritarian countries. Third world countries are those not aligned.
The term third world country is usually associated with poorer countries, mostly because most of those non-aligned countries were rather poor.

 

[akimbo009]

More losses, more withdraws by Russia.

On the point of their "pause" they are only paused cause they have a huge logistics issue with Ukraine blowing up their ammo depots. Dunno why it's even a debate, but Russia hand carries their ammo like some mid-century relic. The result of their ammo depots blowing up has meant the people who do that work also got blown up. Further, they need to reposition and move in more ammo since they have lost considerable ammo capacity.

Fun part there is actually nowhere they can easily build up their ammo caches without them getting blown up by HIMARs. We are seeing Ukraine actually extend last the claimed distances of 80km to upward of 100km. The result is Russia will likely have to move ammo depots in smaller numbers and closer to the front since Ukraine can hit their back lines with impunity.

What has me more entertained at this point is the fact Russia cannot get air superiority or even reliable air sorties going. Only reason HIMARs and other weapons can be so successful is cause Russia has 0 air support. Which is hilarious.

Especially when you get these kind of stories.

 

[akimbo009]

And look these unprofessional clowns..

 

[Tams]

And look these unprofessional clowns..

Lol. If he survives, that young man is going to be deaf before long at that rate. Absolute moron.

 

[Artoris]

Lol. If he survives, that young man is going to be deaf before long at that rate. Absolute moron.

Vodka drinking does not require hearing

 

[winjer]

 

[Tams]

You should be banned from this thread for posting that absolute state of a video thumbnail.

I know YouTubers have to do silly thumbnails to get the clicks and appease the algorithm, but nothing about that makes we want to give that person even a single view. Especially with him pulling that stupid face - sure speaks 'expert' to me.

 

[winjer]

You should be banned from this thread for posting that absolute state of a video thumbnail.

I know YouTubers have to do silly thumbnails to get the clicks and appease the algorithm, but nothing about that makes we want to give that person even a single view. Especially with him pulling that stupid face - sure speaks 'expert' to me.

Don't be silly. Just because this guy made a silly thumbnail doesn't mean his content is bad.
Quite the contrary. Watch the video, and you'll find a lot of insight information.
This is not just some moron on the internet. He is a veteran with very good contacts inside the military and the military industry.
Just for an example, during the Next Generation Weapon Project, he was one of a very few that was able to try out the guns from all major candidates. Filming it and posted on Youtube, with his own analysis.
And now that the USA has adopted the M5, he is still one of a few that have tried that weapon with the full pressure ammo.

 

[Tams]

Don't be silly. Just because this guy made a silly thumbnail doesn't mean his content is bad.
Quite the contrary. Watch the video, and you'll find a lot of insight information.
This is not just some moron on the internet. He is a veteran with very good contacts inside the military and the military industry.
Just for an example, during the Next Generation Weapon Project, he was one of a very few that was able to try out the guns from all major candidates. Filming it and posted on Youtube, with his own analysis.
And now that the USA has adopted the M5, he is still one of a few that have tried that weapon with the full pressure ammo.

I'm not being silly not wasting my time with people who present themselves as clowns.

If he wants people like me to even bother watching (and there's a lot of competition out there), then first impressions count. It's how we triage what's worth it or not. So for that thumbnail...

• 'This is bad...'
• A seething/coping engineer stock image with the US DoD seal photoshopped onto it
• A shitty CAD model of a 'hypersonic' missile with 'HYPERSONIC' lazily put on it
• A MiG-25 or MiG-31 with Russian markings, and then what appears to be JASDF roundels with the PRC Five-stars put on top of it
• His dumb 'look at me in deep thought' face

Though I do get that he's not after people like me. He's after dummies who think all that looks cool and realistic.

And no, this didn't take me long to type up.

 

[winjer]

I'm not being silly not wasting my time with people who present themselves as clowns.

If he wants people like me to even bother watching (and there's a lot of competition out there), then first impressions count. It's how we triage what's worth it or not. So for that thumbnail...

• 'This is bad...'
• A seething/coping engineer stock image with the US DoD seal photoshopped onto it
• A shitty CAD model of a 'hypersonic' missile with 'HYPERSONIC' lazily put on it
• A MiG-25 or MiG-31 with Russian markings, and then what appears to be JASDF roundels with the PRC Five-stars put on top of it
• His dumb 'look at me in deep thought' face

Though I do get that he's not after people like me. He's after dummies who think all that looks cool and realistic.

And no, this didn't take me long to type up.

Why are you creating a shit storm over a bad thumbnail?
Did you watch the video? Do you know who he is and the kind of contacts he has?

 

[Tams]

Why are you creating a shit storm over a bad thumbnail?
Did you watch the video? Do you know who he is and the kind of contacts he has?

Because the contents of the thumbnail are to do with what I assume he talks about (no, I haven't watched and won't).

And I forgot something: China/the PRC have never used MiG 25/31s. They got some SU-27s and licenced the technology of them.

 

[winjer]

Because the contents of the thumbnail are to do with what I assume he talks about (no, I haven't watched and won't).

And I forgot something: China/the PRC have never used MiG 25/31s. They got some SU-27s and licenced the technology of them.

So you are just trolling over a thumbnail....
Talk about judging a book by it's cover.

 

[Tams]

So you are just trolling over a thumbnail....
Talk about judging a book by it's cover.

It's not trolling. If he's discussing a serious matter and is prepared to go to some effort to make erraneous and misleading images, then that tarnishes his entire image and reputation.

 

[Kraz]

I watched it. Agree the thumbnail is terrible and would've skipped it. It's all speculation on a small amount of real public info, but seemed decent for Socratic youtube in the sense of keeping these small amounts of available info in mind of a greater pool of information and to question them objectively.

 

[Kraz]

Some more vague missile talk. This from Taiwan and supplying Ukraine.


Unsure if this translation is accurate, but the English subtitles give some decent considerations.

 

[akimbo009]

So you are just trolling over a thumbnail....
Talk about judging a book by it's cover.

Fact is, you posted a random YouTube video with no context or any tldr. As a random video why should anyone click through outside what they see in the thumb nail - just trust your judgement?

Put some effort in please.

 

[winjer]

Fact is, you posted a random YouTube video with no context or any tldr. As a random video why should anyone click through outside what they see in the thumb nail - just trust your judgement?

Put some effort in please.

Well, I thought a video about hyper missiles, would be of interest here.
Especially considering that Russia has been touting them as the weapon that can destroy the US and NATO, with no counter.
And nuclear weapons has been the main reason why Europe and the USA don't intervene more actively in this war.

I've already posted a couple of videos from this channel. A few people liked them.
Now just because the thumbnail is bad, one guy decides I should be banned. Seriously?

 

[akimbo009]

Well, I thought a video about hyper missiles, would be of interest here.
Especially considering that Russia has been touting them as the weapon that can destroy the US and NATO, with no counter.
And nuclear weapons has been the main reason why Europe and the USA don't intervene more actively in this war.

I've already posted a couple of videos from this channel. A few people liked them.
Now just because the thumbnail is bad, one guy decides I should be banned. Seriously?

Just add context why you find something contextual to the discussion. I guess it's whether Russia can destroy the US with a clutch of fast missles...? Which isn't on topic really.

I think extended this discussion whether Russia is up for attacking NATO we should recognize they aren't even up for taking cities in Ukraine.

 

[TwinB242]

Its not exactly a legitimate referendum when you forcibly remove people who would vote against it from their homes....Russia just finds new ways to prove that they're nothing but giant shits.

 

[M1chl]

Its not exactly a legitimate referendum when you forcibly remove people who would vote against it from their homes....Russia just finds new ways to prove that they're nothing but giant shits.

Well that's more or less how it went in Crimea, but people didn't care back then.

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

Laughing out loud

 

[M1chl]

We are laughing dot gif

 

[Gp1]

Giving wings to Red bull