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[Gamer79]

Some say the PS5 pro falls a little below the rtx 4070 in terms of graphics power with much less capable up-scaling.. The PS6 is probably at least a few years away so 2028 would be the earliest I expect to see this thing. Technology evolves ever so quickly and now we are seeing a change on how developers and hardware makers are designing games.

Hardware is hitting a brick wall when factoring in cost, size, power restrictions, useability, etc. The new way of making games look better and on a larger scale while keeping high frame rates and affordable is through software and up-scaling. Nintendo with it's Switch 2 maybe the first console to show that Up-scaling software >>> Raw graphics processing power. Of course it is always better to have more power but cost is always a factor especially with a console. IS it possible we do not see a huge power upgrade with the PS6 and instead it's a minor hardware upgrade with software being the main upgrade or Do you expect an absolute beast of a system up there with the 4080's and 4090's?

 

[Mr Moose]

I'll let you know in 2028.

 

[DirtInUrEye]

Whatever low to mid range Nvidia card is out at the time.

 

[Valt7786]

Rather they put the cost towards processing power instead, graphics are fine as they are for the most part (like, obviously Moar Graffix is better but) I'd rather have more physics based stuff and environmental interactivity than raw resolution or texture power at this point.

 

[ShirAhava]

Radeon VII w/ RT Cores

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Probably a little below a 5090

Seems like Sony is focusing on the things NVIDIA is currently prioritizing. Frame-gen, AI, RT with raster not being as big of a priority

 

[bundylove]

Wbatever can run cross gen and remakes remasters

 

[Gaiff]

Probably a little below a 5090

Good luck with that.

 

[rofif]

hopefully at least voodoo 1. I don't need much more


man... nightdive could do Unreal1 on ps5

 

[intbal]

S3 Savage with a mild overclock.

 

[asdasdasdbb]

7900 XT maybe

 

[rofif]

S3 Savage with a mild overclock.

s3 savage with 4mb of elephant memory! Fuck yeah son

 

[TintoConCasera]

My guess is ATI Radeon X1950.

 

[namenotfound]

Depends on how much they're willing to bump up pricing and power draw limits. Consoles go for like ~200w from the wall. 4090 is a power draw monster and that's just the GPU. Wait to see reviews for the 5000 series because that'll be it for at least a couple years and then try to approximate what we'll get from 2nm. Whatever is bleeding edge in 2028, expect that to be Apple and Qualcomm for the first couple years. I'm not confident a 4090 will be down enough for a whole console package at like ~200w from the wall. Maybe they'll bump up to over 300w but how expensive of a console will they make

 

[poppabk]

Probably a little below a 5090

Seems like Sony is focusing on the things NVIDIA is currently prioritizing. Frame-gen, AI, RT with raster not being as big of a priority

So below a 6070?

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Good luck with that.

Why’s that? It will be on a new process in 4 years, plus Cerny already talked about the future roadmap of features they are prioritizing, it’s all AI and RT

In 4 years we will have much more powerful NVIDIA cards too, that’s just the nature of things

 

[analog_future]

Probably a little below a 5090

 

[Zathalus]

Probably a little below a 5090

The 5090 has a TDP of 575 watts on 4nm. The PS6 will likely be on 3nm. The maths don’t maths.

 

[hinch7]

Around a 4080 would be my guess.

 

[Black_Stride]

 

[Gaiff]

Why’s that? It will be on a new process in 4 years, plus Cerny already talked about the future roadmap of features they are prioritizing, it’s all AI and RT

In 4 years we will have much more powerful NVIDIA cards too, that’s just the nature of things

4 years is only 2 generations and advancements are way slower. The Pro came out 4 years after the regular PS5 and is only up to 45% faster in rasterization. If the PS6 wants to reach almost 5090-level, it will need to more than double the performance of the Pro. The 5090’s TDP is also 575W. The PS6 will need to be around 200W for the entire system.

2 years ago, I would have agreed. Given the more recent GPU upgrades, I’m not so sure anymore.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

The 5090 has a TDP of 575 watts on 4nm. The PS6 will likely be on 3nm. The maths don’t maths.

It depends on the node. If they go with 3nm then it’ll be probably closer to a 5080, maybe a tad less

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

4 years is only 2 generations and advancements are way slower. The Pro came out 4 years after the regular PS5 and is only up to 45% faster in rasterization. If the PS6 wants to reach almost 5090-level, it will need to more than double the performance of the Pro.

2 years ago, I would have agreed. Given the more recent GPU upgrades, I’m not so sure anymore.

Pro is a mid gen refresh and not a new gen though. You’ll see more enhancements with a new generation

PS5 was a much bigger leap from ps4 pro than ps4 to ps4 pro

 

[omegasc]

RTX 6969

 

[Edmund]

6060ti

 

[gpn]

It’s hard to say at this point, but i think the main driver will be cost. Sony knows the 699 price of the PS5 Pro a nonstarter for a mass market device. I expect they’re shooting for 599 at the very most, but preferably less. I think AI will be a focus and Sony will push AMD the same direction Nvidia is going and try to get as many AI-generated pixels as possible. The PS5 Pro is rated at 300 TOPS while a 4070 is rated at 466 TOPS, so you have to think Sony is going to want to try to get into that range for PS6.

 

[Zathalus]

It depends on the node. If they go with 3nm then it’ll be probably closer to a 5080, maybe a tad less

Even 2nm won’t be enough. The node improvements are less each time. 2nm is currently also facing issues with yields and price so that even Apple is holding off on using it. 2027/2028 it will be mature but still cutting edge and really expensive.

 

[Gaiff]

Pro is a mid gen refresh and not a new gen though. You’ll see more enhancements with a new console

And the mid-gen refresh is why we haven’t seen any improvement to the CPU. The GPU didn’t face such limitations. Look at the PS4 to PS4 Pro. The raw performance was doubled.

The node shrinks don’t provide the same massive power reduction anymore and the IPC gains are much lower. To fit a 5090-tier GPU in a system with around 200W will be a tall task and AMD most definitely hasn’t shown that they can do that lately.

Doable? Maybe. Guaranteed? I wouldn’t bet on it unless there are significant breakthroughs in the next few years.

And let’s not even get started on pricing where a PS5 Pro cost $700 without a disc drive.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Look at the PS4 to PS4 Pro. The raw performance was doubled.

And to PS5 it basically 3X’d when considering architecture improvements

So the mid gen refreshes are still more modest improvements on the gpu as well

 

[sncvsrtoip]

Looking at amd improvements it wont be even on rtx4090 level

 

[Gaiff]

And to PS5 it basically 3X’d when considering architecture improvements

So the mid gen refreshes are still more modest improvements on the gpu as well

The PS5 GPU 3x faster than the PS4 Pro GPU? I don’t think so.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Even 2nm won’t be enough. The node improvements are less each time. 2nm is currently also facing issues with yields and price so that even Apple is holding off on using it. 2027/2028 it will be mature but still cutting edge and really expensive.

Well, it’s not outside the possibility for Sony to pull a MS and release a two tier approach

They are under contract for two SOC’s

I expect a low end dock, that can be turned into a handheld for a cheaper price

And also a higher end console. Maybe they start pushing power/cost more

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

The PS5 3x faster than the PS4 Pro? I don’t think so.

10TF vs 4 = 2.5X + better architecture gets you to 3x. Hardware RT isn’t possible on ps4 pro

 

[GoldenEye98]

6060ti

Probably more like a 6060

 

[M1chl]

5060 at best

 

[kevboard]

probably the 4080

 

[Zathalus]

The PS4 Pro was ~80-90% faster va the base PS4. It launched 3 years into the console lifecycle. The PS5 Pro is ~30-40% vs the base PS5 and it launched 4 years into the console lifecycle.

Just based on power limits and node limitations 4080 range sounds about right for regular rasterisation performance. RT and ML are unknown but they will be much improved via the PS5 Pro. Maybe it could go up to 5080 if they go with a good 2nm node, but don’t expect that console to be cheap.

The console will likely have 24GB-32GB of RAM though so even if the 5080 beats it in compute it will run into VRAM issues.

 

[PeteBull]

Current BiS gpu(well, till 30th jan when we get 5090), so rtx 4090 is 3x stronger from base ps5 in raster alone, so if we talking holidays 2028, i would hope ps6 is by then at least similary powerful, from 4090 so 3x uplift counting just raster(ofc much more if rt performance is included or pssr/dlss or even better/newer ai upscaling technique).

Ofc to make it real we need amd to have gpu that is similary strong to 4090 on top of being much more energy efficient, we know ps5pr0 can push up to 240W of actual powerdraw so its realistic for ps6 to be constrained to 250W actual powerdraw, for example powerdraw of 4090 is 450W, newer and even bigger 5090 is rated at 575tdp , and thats 4nm tsmc manufacturing process, by holiday 2028 we wont get much better, likely 3nm but that is it

TLDR: If all stars alling and amd wont shit the bed, at 999usd im hoping for ps6 to be around 4090 power lvl, could be 20% above or below it but roughly that lvl of raster performance is needed to consider it next gen upgrade, not ps5pr0pr0.
No chance for ps6 to perform above 575W tdp rtx 5090 when its already 4nm, even if console was 2k usd simply no way to reduce such a huge powerdraw into 250W console formfactor(we talking whole apu 250W, not just gpu, cpu, memory, ssd etc just like ps5pr0's powerdraw isnt gpu only, but whole console, what it eats from the wall).

 

[Gaiff]

10TF vs 4 = 2.5X + better architecture gets you to 3x. Hardware RT isn’t possible on ps4 pro

How many times are we going to do this TFLOPs exercise? The bandwidth increased by just over 2x. ROPs were doubled. Games won’t perform 3x better on the regular PS5 compared to the Pro when not GPU-limited. That’s an RX 470 vs an RTX 2070S/RX 6700 scenario. We’re looking at around 2.4-2.5x better performance when not GPU-limited and this can vary depending on the bottleneck. And the PS4 Pro was just $400 too.

The bottom line is, the PS4 Pro was massive improvement over the PS4 in raw specs. Sure, generational leaps are bigger than mid-gen refreshes, but not to the point where 45% will turn into 220%, which is what the PS6 would need to match the 4090.

Sony will have to look elsewhere to score points and it’ll likely be on the software side. 4090 performance for an APU is a very, very tall task. Another big problem is the price.

 

[Xyphie]

My expectation is that PS6 will use TSMC N2P/N2X (or maybe some Samsung equivalent) in 2027-2028 for their SoC or GPU chiplet. Apple typically is the exclusive customer for whatever the newest TSMC node is for some time, e.g. they shipped their first 5nm chip in 2020, at the same time as consoles launched with 7nm and PS5 Pro now only has 5nm node 4 years later.

Some PPA measures from TSMC themselves can be found here.

N5 -> N3E (1.3x density) -> N2P (1.15x density)

N5 -> N2P (1.3 * 1.15 density) = ~1.5x density

So for a N2P chip to roughly match the 744mm^2 die area of a 5090 it should be in the ballpark of 744/1.5 = ~496mm^2 for the GPU portion alone, which I find unlikely given Sony has gone for ~300mm^2 chips before, and with wafers ballooning in cost that's unlikely to increase in the future. So maybe something around the perf of a 5070 Ti or 5080 or so?

I think delivering a meaningful performance increase while actually being able to sell the system without a massive loss per unit is going to be the number one issue in next gen, which is why I think that there will be a PS6 and PS6 Pro at launch (XSS/XSX-like strategy).

 

[GermanZepp]

At least double ps5 teraflops. At max double teraflops of the ps5 pro. So wherever card Nvidia has that lands in 25 teraflops real world performance.

 

[Ironman_Bad]

Who cares it's not a pc it's a dedicated gaming console it can have a GPU "similar" to a "4090" whatever graphics you see on it from naughty gods, insomniac, or Sony Santa Monica will put anything else on the market to shame no advanced path ray traced shadows will matter lol

 

[Shifty1897]

Cerny made some comment that maybe 2027 was a possibility for the PS6. If Microsoft releases the Prime in 2026, Fall 2027 for PS6 might happen. If 2027 does happen, you're looking at a $700 PS6 that runs like a 5070 Ti, maybe?

 

[Gaiff]

Who cares it's not a pc it's a dedicated gaming console it can have a GPU "similar" to a "4090" whatever graphics you see on it from naughty gods, insomniac, or Sony Santa Monica will put anything else on the market to shame no advanced path ray traced shadows will matter lol

They’re not putting the rest of the market to shame now.

 

[Cyberpunkd]

Rather they put the cost towards processing power instead, graphics are fine as they are for the most part (like, obviously Moar Graffix is better but) I'd rather have more physics based stuff and environmental interactivity than raw resolution or texture power at this point.

Ever played F.E.A.R.?

 

[M.W.]

Probably a 3080

 

[Cyberpunkd]

Who cares it's not a pc it's a dedicated gaming console it can have a GPU "similar" to a "4090" whatever graphics you see on it from naughty gods, insomniac, or Sony Santa Monica will put anything else on the market to shame no advanced path ray traced shadows will matter lol

Yeah, another “cinematic experience”….Druckmann just can’t wait.

 

[Ironman_Bad]

They’re not putting the rest of the market to shame now.

Well they haven't made anything recently lol but GT puts any racing game to shame Spiderman Miles on ps5 at launch and Ratchet shortly after in 2020 put pretty much anything to shame graphically

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

How many times are we going to do this TFLOPs exercise? The bandwidth increased by just over 2x. ROPs were doubled. Games won’t perform 3x better on the regular PS5 compared to the Pro when not GPU-limited. That’s an RX 470 vs an RTX 2070S/RX 6700 scenario. We’re looking at around 2.4-2.5x better performance when not GPU-limited and this can vary depending on the bottleneck. And the PS4 Pro was just $400 too.

The bottom line is, the PS4 Pro was massive improvement over the PS4 in raw specs. Sure, generational leaps are bigger than mid-gen refreshes, but not to the point where 45% will turn into 220%, which is what the PS6 would need to match the 4090.

Sony will have to look elsewhere to score points and it’ll likely be on the software side. 4090 performance for an APU is a very, very tall task. Another big problem is the price.

You think ps4 to ps4 pro was an equal leap to the ps5?

I never said anything about raw performance, I just said the generation had a more significant leap

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

I think delivering a meaningful performance increase while actually being able to sell the system without a massive loss per unit is going to be the number one issue in next gen, which is why I think that there will be a PS6 and PS6 Pro at launch (XSS/XSX-like strategy).

That’s what I’m speculating as well, 2 SKUs like Xbox S/X

A lower tier dock could also slide into a handheld like device bought separately or bundled, or be used for standalone PSVR3. It makes perfect sense and has utility on multiple fronts.

If that’s the case, how high do you think the pro version at launch is? I think they could achieve somewhere between 5080 and 5090