Support NeoGAF

[Draugoth]

According to a thread opened by journalist Christopher Dring on the Install Base forum, who has become known for publishing sales data for the UK, has shared some interesting information.

Getting straight to the point, Christopher Dring claims that releasing a game on Xbox Game Pass does YES hurt sales. In this story, he even used Senua's Saga: Hellblade II and other Xbox Game Studios titles as an example.

“Anecdotally, games that are on Game Pass can expect to lose around 80% of their expected premium sales on Xbox. That's the figure that's often quoted.”

“It's less if it's a big mainstream release, but in general... look at how Hellblade II did in the charts. Or where Indiana Jones did. Or even Starfield. Game Pass has clearly hurt sales of these titles on Xbox.”

However, he notes if this game is on several platforms, it could be beneficial, as this increase in the number of players on Xbox could have a big impact on sales on PlayStation, for example.

“I'm actually torn about subscriptions. I think it can lead to lost revenue, and services like that make it harder for everyone else. Try being an indie game on Xbox now that's not on Game Pass...”

“But also, getting people to play your game in 2024/2025 is so, so, so hard. And the subscription puts games in front of a lot of people. We know from the data that there are a lot of people who only play Call of Duty.”

“And if some of those people decided to pick up Call of Duty this year through Game Pass, and those same people took the opportunity to play other Game Pass games, games they wouldn't have played otherwise... it's hard to argue that that's a bad thing.”

 

[Darkkahn]

Worst deal for devs?

 

[Dacvak]

Well obviously subscriptions hurt individual sales. I don’t buy movies anymore, I watch them on my streaming services.

The real question is how much money the game made by being on Game Pass versus not. It was my understanding that Microsoft will subsidize game development costs for games slated to be Day Ones on game pass. Do the devs get more money based off of how many people play their game on GP?

 

[Fake]

 

[cireza]

No shit ?

 

[TheGrat1]

Not surprising.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

jez corden:
how in the fuck, am i going to spin this shit??!?!?

 

[Horseganador]

It's obvious that no matter what Phil says, GP has destroyed game sales on Xbox.

 

[coffinbirth]

"Try being an indie game now that's not on GamePass".

So, sell 80% more copies?

 

[drganon]

 

[Flabagast]

Not surprising, Xbox sales do not appear anymore in any chart.

 

[FoxMcChief]

Gaming journalist huh. Now we believe them.

 

[Generic]

Subscription services increase the chance of me playing a game by 80%.

 

[Arsic]

Xbox for indies is really getting the bag, making a game to get good word of mouth, so then you can make a new IP or sequel to not be on gamepass so you can start making actual money.

Gamepass for AAA is just financial suicide lol.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Gaming journalist huh. Now we believe them.

you should look at what number games like the latest Forza or Hellblade 2 charted at.

 

[GymWolf]

Well, at least on pc the xbox app\pc gamepass are so shit that i prefer to pay full price on steam but on console must be idiotic to pay for games if you have gamepass.

 

[tmlDan]

Well obviously subscriptions hurt individual sales. I don’t buy movies anymore, I watch them on my streaming services.

The real question is how much money the game made by being on Game Pass versus not. It was my understanding that Microsoft will subsidize game development costs for games slated to be Day Ones on game pass. Do the devs get more money based off of how many people play their game on GP?

people still go to theatres. Technically, in most cases, movies are never day one if they're of higher quality

 

[DeepEnigma]

Gaming journalist huh. Now we believe them.

If only we had a thing called sales charts that have shown the decline YoY since Game Pass.

And FTC court docs that admitted to it.

 

[Closer]

Anecdotally.

 

[xrnzaaas]

It always depends on the game. Smaller games obviously have an easier time since MS money can cover most or even all of their budget. So it's only a matter of ending up on Microsoft's radar and you're set.

AAA / AA+ games either must get the big bucks to cover for the lost sales or have a passionate fanbase that will still buy their game regardless of Game Pass, exactly like it happened with Stalker 2.

 

[adamsapple]

Gaming journalist huh. Now we believe them.

Until the next inconvenience.

 

[BoxFresh123]

 

[dem]

Breaking news

Music Streaming Services decrease record sales!


Anyone want to go back to buying albums on CD or iTunes?

 

[noob smokes]

Release all their games day 1 on all platforms will def help make up the loss in sales i wouldnt be surprised if gears & halo launch day 1 on ps & nintendo

 

[Cyberpunkd]

Do the devs get more money based off of how many people play their game on GP?

Even if they do you can assume the revenue share model is the same as e.g. music streaming - album payouts on Spotify are minuscule compared to CD sales for an artist. Also regarding development costs - I'm sure it is way easier to throw a few million on multiple games than 100 million on 1 AAA one just to have it on GP. In the end it's the Netflix model - quantity over quality.

 

[Punished Miku]

I think a lot of the constant shit talking decreased sales by 80% if we're talking Hellblade 2.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Xbox for indies is really getting the bag, making a game to get good word of mouth, so then you can make a new IP or sequel to not be on gamepass so you can start making actual money.

Gamepass for AAA is just financial suicide lol.

boys, im going to say the quiet part out loud:

If you take out day-and-date AAA releases, the value of Game Pass and its fanboy rhetoric would plummet.


as simple and factual as that.

 

[Reizo Ryuu]

Is this guy dr strange where he can see the outcomes for different timelines? There's no way to say the number is 80% across the board.

 

[DeepEnigma]

Until the next inconvenience.

An Inconvenient truth.

 

[Calverz]

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

I think a lot of the constant shit talking decreased sales by 80%.

 

[Mr Moose]

Gaming journalist huh. Now we believe them.

He no longer works for gamesindustry.biz.

 

[Lionel Richie]

Game Pass and the equally retarded Snoy Pass are cancerous for the industry. Yeah I loved those deals, but come on man lol.

 

[Three]

People saying "duh" in this thread but roll back a few years and you had those slightly fishy industry insiders suggesting it doesn't canabalise sales

Business - Analysis - Sales-Age - MAT PISCATELLA (NPD): Still No Sign GamePass Cannibalizes Game Sales

Someone brings up Gears 5; Mat's response: Considering MS 1P games like Forza have continued to do well in spite of GamePass and that MLB The Show was #2 best-selling game on Xbox platforms for April (not counting digital sales, so in actuality it may've been #1 best-selling game there as...

www.neogaf.com

 

[Mr Moose]

Is this guy dr strange where he can see the outcomes for different timelines? There's no way to say the number is 80% across the board.

“Anecdotally, games that are on Game Pass can expect to lose around 80% of their expected premium sales on Xbox. That's the figure that's often quoted.”

 

[Punished Miku]

No one takes journalists seriously. That's not what I'm talking about. And most of those sales are in China where they aren't reading IGN.

Is your position that near unanimous shit talking about this game on youtube, and forums doesn't impact sales negatively at all? GP probably saved Hellblade 2. I'm sure some people were willing to pay for a month of GP to try it but not $50 with all the people talking shit about it.

 

[BennyBlanco]

The reason it makes sense for netflix, etc to use this model is because they are able to crank out cheap reality shows at a crazy pace to pad out their release schedules along with older big budget stuff. You can put a movie from 2006 on Netflix and people will watch it. You can’t put a game from 2006 on gamepass as it exists because it would need work to run on modern hardware and people likely won’t play it anyway.

Also the most popular modern games are GaaS. A person who is super into CoD or Fortnite doesn’t care about having access to 100 games of varying quality. They just wanna crank through their battle pass and buy a Goku skin or whatever.

They should’ve pulled the plug on gamepass a while ago but they are weirdly committed to it. I don’t think it was a terrible idea and I probably would’ve loved it as a broke teenager but it’s basically killed their console business at this point.

 

[drganon]

Game Pass and the equally retarded Snoy Pass are cancerous for the industry. Yeah I loved those deals, but come on man lol.

Completely idiotic comparison.

 

[justiceiro]

Well, if you were expecting a thousand sales anyway, just take the game pass money.

 

[solidus12]

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

No one takes journalists seriously. That's not what I'm talking about.

you know what's ironic?...that the shit talk you are alluding to, happened with the first game too, only on the other side .

is rough man, is rough

 

[jm89]

 

[Cyberpunkd]

Don’t you see it? Of course paying at a time $10 for single player game to finish in a month or less leads to more people paying $60 to own one.

 

[Topher]

Gaming journalist huh. Now we believe them.

Until the next inconvenience.

Ya'll need to stop being so predictable

 

[Mr Moose]

Ya'll need to stop being so predictable

 

[DeepEnigma]

you know what's ironic?...that the shit talk you are alluding to, happened with the first game too, only on the other side .

is rough man, is rough

We Love Cinematic Walky Talky Sims Now™

 

[Lorianus]

Microsoft is a big corp that works for profit so they surely have the numbers that people with an ongoing game pass sub is bigger than potential sales or not, i mean they are not that dumb when it comes to their quarter reports.

 

[Radical_3d]

 

[Lionel Richie]

Completely idiotic comparison.

I'm not an expert on idiocy, can you please enlighten me?

 

[Spitfire098]

Gaming journalist huh. Now we believe them.

Until the next inconvenience.

The end of the Xbox Ambassador program really did a number on these dudes talking points...