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Releasing games on Xbox Game Pass hurts sales by upwards of 80%, according to Christopher Dring

To be perfectly honest, I don't give a shit about developers and their sales margins or wealth. I care much more that people have access to these games at a reasonable price. I don't care about Game Pass since I haven't used it in quite a while, but there are so many other, more important factors as to why games do poorly, like dei, lack of innovation, long dev times, shitty battle passes, early access fuckery, bloated budgets etc.
 

pudel

Member
They were doing it for growth and to kill competitors, not immediate profit.
Exactly! They are going for the whole cake, as they always do....why should M$ bother about losing some peanuts money right now (compared to their yearly profit) if it might grant them monopoly status over the whole gaming sector in a few years. Thats definitely not something I am going to look forward to!

I mean for smaller indie games gamepass might be even something good just for instantly reaching a wide audience. But if devs put up their big and good AA/AAA game on gamepass they are just shooting themselves into the foot imho. And also consumers who are happy now about paying nearly zero dollars for huge games might realize someday that this wont be enough to keep the gaming wheel spinning on the current level. So be prepared for more and more ingame mtx similiar to this awful mobile games.

Also "vote with your wallet" will be a thing of the past very quickly with this "sweet" subscription models. :messenger_winking:
 
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Idleyes

Member
My GamePass usage in 2024:

1st month. got a free trial, played hellblade 1+2
2nd month. got a free trial, played CoD Blops campaign
3rd month. paid ~$7.50 from a key site, played Indiana Jones

Can't imagine why they're losing money.

Alright, mi a go drop a big shitpost right yah so, mi yute! Even setting aside the possibility that some snot nosed brat might purchase their games outright, the fact that not everyone is on a free trial at the same time as you, ignoring unknown operational costs, and whatever puff the magic dragon believes sales numbers would be without Game Pass, the rough math still suggests:

  • If all 30 million subscribers followed your described pattern, that would amount to roughly $225 million in three months.
  • Over a full year, that would be $900 million.
By way of a simplistic example, if Game Pass generates $900 million annually and 50% goes to Microsoft (for any number of expenses), with the remaining 50% split evenly among 500 games, each game would receive $900,000 per year. If Microsoft takes 70% and the remaining 30% goes to the studios, then each game could still receive about $540,000 per year, based solely on your subscription pattern.

In other words, you’re still talking about a substantial sum of money.
 

dem

Member
Bet all the game devs can't wait to go on stadium tours to actually make some money.

You wouldn’t believe it..
But the developers who make the most money don’t even charge for their game!

Oh My God Reaction GIF




Worlds changing you geezers
 
Alright, mi a go drop a big shitpost right yah so, mi yute! Even setting aside the possibility that some snot nosed brat might purchase their games outright, the fact that not everyone is on a free trial at the same time as you, ignoring unknown operational costs, and whatever puff the magic dragon believes sales numbers would be without Game Pass, the rough math still suggests:

  • If all 30 million subscribers followed your described pattern, that would amount to roughly $225 million in three months.
  • Over a full year, that would be $900 million.
By way of a simplistic example, if Game Pass generates $900 million annually and 50% goes to Microsoft (for any number of expenses), with the remaining 50% split evenly among 500 games, each game would receive $900,000 per year. If Microsoft takes 70% and the remaining 30% goes to the studios, then each game could still receive about $540,000 per year, based solely on your subscription pattern.

In other words, you’re still talking about a substantial sum of money.

1. those were not consecative 3 months. those were the only 3 months I wanted for the year. So no you don't quaduple it.
2. pretty sure MS already said they need over 100 million subs paying full price by 2027, so someone like me paying less than $8/year is definitely not cutting it.
3. MS is paying these devs to put their games on GamePass, and from the numbers that leaked, some of them are getting millions and millions.
 

pudel

Member
then each game could still receive about $540,000 per year, based solely on your subscription pattern.

In other words, you’re still talking about a substantial sum of money.

What you mean with "substantial amount of money"!? Thats nothing. :pie_thinking:
You wouldn’t believe it..
But the developers who make the most money don’t even charge for their game!

But these devs are last ones who need a distribution platform at all.
 

hemo memo

You can't die before your death
People saying Xbox Game Pass kills game sales are the same people who'd say Netflix has wasted billions because Squid Game or Stranger Things didn’t sell Blu-rays. Clearly, Netflix should've skipped streaming and stuck to DVD rentals for maximum profit. Brilliant business sense, right?
 
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Idleyes

Member
You wouldn’t believe it..
But the developers who make the most money don’t even charge for their game!

Oh My God Reaction GIF




Worlds changing you geezers

Fact. In-game purchases and ads, like Candy Crush & Fortnite. GTA V doesn't quite fit because the the base game comes with price, but most of its revenue comes from GTA Online, so I felt it's worth mentioning. Those are some big money makers.
 
I'm sure Microsoft is forcing the Devs to put their games on GamePass for free. Why should they get paid? They should be grateful to even be included in the best deal in gaming. (/s )

Of course sales on Xbox are going to be lower for most games if a game is also on GamePass. I for example only buy very few games I played on GamePass to keep them in my library. But I still buy quite a lot of games not on the service.
 
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dem

Member
But these devs are last ones who need a distribution platform at all.

I guarantee you sub services are not going anywhere.

Devs will need to find a way to turn viewership into money. The model is changing whether you like it or not.
 

bitbydeath

Gold Member
Luckily they each have alternatives for earning the required money.

Well obviously subscriptions hurt individual sales. I don’t buy movies anymore, I watch them on my streaming services.

The real question is how much money the game made by being on Game Pass versus not. It was my understanding that Microsoft will subsidize game development costs for games slated to be Day Ones on game pass. Do the devs get more money based off of how many people play their game on GP?
Cinema
Breaking news

Music Streaming Services decrease record sales!


Anyone want to go back to buying albums on CD or iTunes?
Concerts

And for gaming it’s PlayStation.
 

Clear

CliffyB's Cock Holster
The real issue, and I pointed this out literally YEARS ago, is that the damage dealt isn't uniform.

Smaller devs will get squeezed out first, because without a heavy marketing budget, or maybe championing by some YT/Twitch influencer, their "little" game isn't going to get a look in, in the face of all the "free" stuff.
 

yazenov

Member
People saying "duh" in this thread but roll back a few years and you had those slightly fishy industry insiders suggesting it doesn't canabalise sales


Check page 2 of the thread. Yours truly was right about everything as always and Matt is a fucking hack. :p
 
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bundylove

Member
The reason it makes sense for netflix, etc to use this model is because they are able to crank out cheap reality shows at a crazy pace to pad out their release schedules along with older big budget stuff. You can put a movie from 2006 on Netflix and people will watch it. You can’t put a game from 2006 on gamepass as it exists because it would need work to run on modern hardware and people likely won’t play it anyway.

Also the most popular modern games are GaaS. A person who is super into CoD or Fortnite doesn’t care about having access to 100 games of varying quality. They just wanna crank through their battle pass and buy a Goku skin or whatever.

They should’ve pulled the plug on gamepass a while ago but they are weirdly committed to it. I don’t think it was a terrible idea and I probably would’ve loved it as a broke teenager but it’s basically killed their console business at this point.
Netflix went way the fuck downhill.

Depending where you live , the content is garbage.

Started at 5 bucks a month now up to 30 bucks a month for the premium.

Then most content is foreign shit. More than half of new releases are korean crap or panjabi crap.

You get to watch one or 2 new releases a month that are worth it the rest is trash.
And then what ever is good comes in 2 parts or new episodes every week.
Or they just spread out their franchises globaly and you end up with love is blind habibi/brazil/france etc lol

Netflix really stopped spending money the last few years on new movies or shows.


Now imagine how poor this model is in real life for gaming
 

Idleyes

Member
Anyway, Gamepass is garbage for developers when you consider Elden Ring sold nearly 30 million copies. Might make sense for some studios (depending on the game) but not all of them.
 

Idleyes

Member
Does it provide 80%> of benefit by releasing those titles on Gane Pass? How much money do the devs/publishers get from releasing their titles on Game Pass?

I wish Microsoft would be more transparent about this. Maybe they are being upfront with the developers but not with us, possibly under some kind of non-disclosure agreement. Still, as consumers, we have a legitimate interest in knowing how much of the money spent on Game Pass actually goes to the developers.
 
Exactly! They are going for the whole cake, as they always do....why should M$ bother about losing some peanuts money right now (compared to their yearly profit) if it might grant them monopoly status over the whole gaming sector in a few years. Thats definitely not something I am going to look forward to!

I mean for smaller indie games gamepass might be even something good just for instantly reaching a wide audience. But if devs put up their big and good AA/AAA game on gamepass they are just shooting themselves into the foot imho. And also consumers who are happy now about paying nearly zero dollars for huge games might realize someday that this wont be enough to keep the gaming wheel spinning on the current level. So be prepared for more and more ingame mtx similiar to this awful mobile games.

Also "vote with your wallet" will be a thing of the past very quickly with this "sweet" subscription models. :messenger_winking:
Is GP not profitable?

Mtx has been coming to everything for years. Sony doesn't offer GP yet they are/were planning on spending more money on GaaS than SP games.
 
The real issue, and I pointed this out literally YEARS ago, is that the damage dealt isn't uniform.

Smaller devs will get squeezed out first, because without a heavy marketing budget, or maybe championing by some YT/Twitch influencer, their "little" game isn't going to get a look in, in the face of all the "free" stuff.
"The Damage".... let that sink for a moment. 🤔

are we supposed to believe that MS didn't know what they were doing?... (we have the emails and Nadella's statements).... these mfers genuinely believed they could fuck an entire industry just to "spent Sony out of business"..... and some still wonder why MS/Xbox is so hated
 
The real issue, and I pointed this out literally YEARS ago, is that the damage dealt isn't uniform.

Smaller devs will get squeezed out first, because without a heavy marketing budget, or maybe championing by some YT/Twitch influencer, their "little" game isn't going to get a look in, in the face of all the "free" stuff.

Are you talking about GamePass or the gaming market in general? Because in the market in general, small studios and games are constantly overlooked for the bigger fish.
 

Bojanglez

The Amiga Brotherhood
I wish Microsoft would be more transparent about this. Maybe they are being upfront with the developers but not with us, possibly under some kind of non-disclosure agreement. Still, as consumers, we have a legitimate interest in knowing how much of the money spent on Game Pass actually goes to the developers.
To be fair that is the developers' business, where it does cross over into the consumer's business is knowing where this ends long term. As others have pointed out, subscription models are often run at a considerable loss for many years in order to alter consumers habits, disrupt existing rival business models, grab market share etc. However almost all eventually then pivot to something less desirable with reduced choice, higher prices and adverts.

For music I think sub models make perfect sense, almost every album made is available on all platforms, they then differentiate by quality of service and quality of life features. Artists can create additional money outside of these models by creating unique one off live experiences.

In gaming I think the jury is still out for all parties. Hopefully enough models can survive on enough platforms with enough competition to keep everyone happy.

In 10 years this may all be irrelevant anyway, we'll all just be subscribing to rival generative AI gaming services and playing whatever the fuck we can think of.
 

MacReady13

Member
I forget the numbers, but Sony shared how many potential copies of Horzion Forbidden West were lost due to them bringing it over to PS+ only after a year. They deemed that experiment a failure and didn’t see the jump in subscriptions they were hoping for.
Shows how potentially bad it is for anyone other than Microsoft to go down this route. Like I said earlier, Microsoft can afford the loss of sales as they are a VERY wealthy company. Playstation and Nintendo cannot cover those loses.
 
Shows how potentially bad it is for anyone other than Microsoft to go down this route. Like I said earlier, Microsoft can afford the loss of sales as they are a VERY wealthy company. Playstation and Nintendo cannot cover those loses.
is this comment from the past, or am i missing context?.

is clear MS couldn't afford the GP experiment.
 

pudel

Member
Does it provide 80%> of benefit by releasing those titles on Gane Pass? How much money do the devs/publishers get from releasing their titles on Game Pass?

There was once a leaked list with upfront payments. They varied hugely. So it seems to be very individual agreements. But most seems to be upfront because devs claimed they cannot see the "usage" numbers and dont want to trust M$ in that regard. :messenger_tears_of_joy:

Here is the list with the leaked "estimates" by xbox: https://kotaku.com/xbox-leak-game-pass-cost-star-wars-jedi-survivor-gtav-1850852885
Is GP not profitable?

I dont know. Unfortunately there is not even a separate gaming segment in their financial reports. Just wanted to say that even if gamepass would be in the red for quite some time, it doesnt really matter when you make a profit of 88 billions per year anyway. It would be just peanuts...especially when your goal is to be "the place to be" for gaming, like steam is right now on PC. (they all hate steam for this!) Because should they eventually reach this goal...all these losses will be recovered in no time....as they can do now what they want.
 

DForce

NaughtyDog Defense Force
I'm sure Microsoft expected to go down as well, but they sure as hell didn't expect Game Pass to plateau at 25 million subscribers.
 
I dont know. Unfortunately there is not even a separate gaming segment in their financial reports. Just wanted to say that even if gamepass would be in the red for quite some time, it doesnt really matter when you make a profit of 88 billions per year anyway. It would be just peanuts...especially when your goal is to be "the place to be" for gaming, like steam is right now on PC. (they all hate steam for this!) Because should they eventually reach this goal...all these losses will be recovered in no time....as they can do now what they want.
But it is profitable though.
 

KungFucius

King Snowflake
boys, im going to say the quiet part out loud:

If you take out day-and-date AAA releases, the value of Game Pass and its fanboy rhetoric would plummet.
👊✋🎤

as simple and factual as that. 🤷🏼‍♂️
How is that the quiet part? Those are the heavy hitters. I wouldn't have subbed for 2 years before the price increase if there wasn't a guarantee of several AAA games over that period. Don't get me wrong, I tend to get more out of the AA games and Indy games on Gamepass, but my valuation of the service is keyed to the AAA games even when a fair amount have been disappointing and I probably would have bought most of them and been pissed off, now I am just disappointed.

Sony should up the ante. Keep their service basically how it is but add a coupon for one full priced game each year. That would change my math considerably.
 
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