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Releasing games on Xbox Game Pass hurts sales by upwards of 80%, according to Christopher Dring

pudel

Member
Why would I spend $70-$80 for a game that I could finish in a day or two, while binge other games when I can do it on the cheap with just a month pass?
I agree that I wouldnt spend that much as well for short games which I can finish in an evening session (tbh, I dont even touch such games). But blockbuster games like Witcher, CP77, BG3, KCD etc., in which I can be immersed for weeks, if not months....are absolute value for me at this price tag. And if I want these games to keep coming also in future I am more than happy to pay the devs (not M$) for it properly.

Yes, but at least Starfield sold somewhat okay on Steam. People bought the game before they realized how crap it is.

With Hellblade 2 and Indiana Jones, folks didn't even buy the game on either platform. They just straight-up bombed. And from what I hear, Indiana Jones is actually a good game. But it suffered nevertheless.

Are you sure about Indiana Jones? Somehow everybody involved was happy with the release it seems: https://www.gamesradar.com/games/ac...eportedly-picked-up-the-phone-and-wants-more/

:pie_thinking:
 

Heisenberg007

Gold Journalism
Are you sure about Indiana Jones? Somehow everybody involved was happy with the release it seems: https://www.gamesradar.com/games/ac...eportedly-picked-up-the-phone-and-wants-more/

:pie_thinking:
I don't have any data to claim otherwise, but Jez Corden (the person who reported this) is a proper corporate shill, so he will say anything to please his overlords. Besides, our very own S SneakersSO (who I trust much, much more than any other insider) has said that Jez's claim was false, and nobody from Disney called.

From the limited data/information we have, it seems like Indiana Jones hasn't sold well.

We have Chris Dring in this thread saying that it didn't sell well on Xbox. That leaves Steam as the only other platform. And based on its players-count, this is what every analyst company is expecting Indiana Jones sales to be:

cPSIgx0.jpeg


Even if we take the highest number here, the game sold less than 300K copies on Steam. A licensed IP AAA game selling less than 5 million copies is pretty much a death sentence.
 
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sainraja

Member
This is the main reason why Game Pass will never be on Sony and Nintendo systems. I still remember all the talk about how it was inevitable, but it never made financial sense (just like how Game Pass increases sales never made sense).
If they bundle Xbox published games with Game Pass and put it on Sony and Nintendo systems, it can work. As long as they make deals similar to that of EA Play and Ubisoft+. For Sony, they might also need to work out a deal where it is bundled with PS+.
 
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Especially funny when almost all of that stuff he’s whining about are things that all sub services do. Change the service, increase price, etc. It’s done every single time. Did he really expect GamePass to be any different?
Never understood so much mental gymnastics around gamepass.

If it’s unsustainable for MS, they can simply increase the price.

If it wasn’t worth it for devs, they would simply not put games on it.

If gamepass releases are slowing down, how come I am playing biggest games of the holidays on the service??
 

Astray

Member
Yes, but at least Starfield sold somewhat okay on Steam. People bought the game before they realized how crap it is.

With Hellblade 2 and Indiana Jones, folks didn't even buy the game on either platform. They just straight-up bombed. And from what I hear, Indiana Jones is actually a good game. But it suffered nevertheless.
I played Indiana Jones and finished the main campaign. The game is uneven, but quite good when it works. I personally think that it's been a bit overrated tbh, I would not give it a 9 or a 10, but that's just me.

Hellblade 2 is honestly a tech demo and nothing else. Amazing how people bitch about Sony 3rd person games then turn around and praise this.
 

laynelane

Member
If they bundle Xbox published games with Game Pass and put it on Sony and Nintendo systems, it can work. As long as they make deals similar to that of EA Play and Ubisoft+. For Sony, they might also need to work out a deal where it is bundled with PS+.

That wouldn't be Game Pass, would it? It would be something different if it was like EA Play and Ubisoft+. As well, even in a situation like that, there's no advantage to Sony or Nintendo to allow this on their platform. MS, with all their acquisitions, simply owns too many IPs and bundling them together in a sub service would cut into sales for both Sony and Nintendo. Even with just one game, CoD, this would be detrimental to Sony, for example.
 
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mdkirby

Gold Member
It imo also hurts games not on the service, as people assume they will come to the service sooner or later, and it also warps the value proposition for games. Why spend £30 on some 8 hour indie game, when for about £100/yr you can get a mountain of AAA games, tons of Indies/AA, and you get a load of day one games. Each year that passes more people will have grown up only ever experiencing this as gamers, and those used to buying games, just as those used to buying physical games will gradually reduce. Just like getting entire generations hooked on addictive singular forever games harms the future of the industry by changing intentions and player habits of the next generation.
 

DenchDeckard

Moderated wildly
any comments from Chris Dring or whoever from there on Q4 performance in the UK? I'm interested to actually hear how hardware sales have done over Q4. I guess it's still early in 2025.
 

Skifi28

Member
they said the same things about Hi-Fi Rush
Yeah, it's hard to trust anything they say about how satisfied they are with a release, ever again. If it's good, maybe give us some numbers? Plus that article has Jez as a source that "heard things" like he usually does. Not convinced seeing the Steam charts, maybe once it releases on PS and finds a bigger market there for single player adventure games. Maybe.
 

jm89

Member
He doesn't work for GI.biz anymore so I don't think he'll be sharing any sales stuff. Maybe that Nintendo site (or someone at GI.biz unless that's closing).
Apparently his trying to get access to the sales data from GSD. So he might still do these reports going forward.

Gbiz are pretty dumb for not releasing the November Europe numbers, the sales data gets them clicks on a monthly basis.
 
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DeepEnigma

Gold Member

Releasing movies on Netflix hurts sales by upwards of 80%, according to Chrissy Dung​

It hurt publishers on their own platforms, yes. Which is why Disney quickly stopped the day and date for most of their top movies on Disney+

Netflix has also been a loss leader for well over a decade which ushered in price increases and drop in quality and endless early cancelled shows after show after show.
 
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Three

Gold Member

Releasing movies on Netflix hurts sales by upwards of 80%, according to Chrissy Dung​

And that would likely be true too. Did you see how well Netflix original movies do in theaters, do you see their ability to win any oscars?

They don't make much money in theaters because people know it's coming to netflix and they don't have the quality to win many awards with those films either.
 

sainraja

Member
That wouldn't be Game Pass, would it? It would be something different if it was like EA Play and Ubisoft+. As well, even in a situation like that, there's no advantage to Sony or Nintendo to allow this on their platform. MS, with all their acquisitions, simply owns too many IPs and bundling them together in a sub service would cut into sales for both Sony and Nintendo. Even with just one game, CoD, this would be detrimental to Sony, for example.
It would still be Game Pass as what it is offering is access to Xbox games. They can do day one access as well, for the "Ultimate" tier. My point was, the precedent has already been set by EA Play and Ubisoft+ and the key difference between these sub offerings vs Game Pass was the day one factor which isn't there anymore for Game Pass standard. There might be other differences but they are all subscription based services providing access to games published by them. MS had no way to bargain with Sony or Nintendo before, but with their acquisitions, that has changed. Of course, whatever deal they make, will have to favor both Sony/Nintendo as well, otherwise, yeah, they won't do it.
 

pudel

Member
I think the movie development was a bit different. They went straight from "physical sales" to the subscription system. They never had the digital store system which we have in gaming since over 20 years right now. Who knows...maybe it would have been way much better/healthier for the movie industry if you could just buy and download the movie/series you would like to see. I actually doubt this, because the industry is the one who is interested to establish a subscription system...its not the customers. Why? Because it solves many problems for them. DRM, full control over the offered content (DEI stuff etc), unlimited price increase possibilities...the only way to "escape" is to cancel the whole subscription. As consumer you just have way less possibilities to influence anything in a subscription world compared to the "purchase" model where you can cherry pick what you want to support and what not.
 

GHG

Member
He doesn't work for GI.biz anymore so I don't think he'll be sharing any sales stuff. Maybe that Nintendo site (or someone at GI.biz unless that's closing).

That's why he's got the freedom to now come out and say this stuff.

Just a shame it's a few years too late when they've been going around pitching for gamepass content stating the opposite.



lXIDb3x.jpeg
 
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100% known. That’s why we have the price inc on consoles aka msft owns its ecosystem. The next step is pushing via pc.

Food for thought kids; I am waiting for bg3 to hit 30usd before jumping in. Most sales are at discounts except for cod/ea yearly ect…

The questions folks should be pushing for Phil are:

Gp current numbers
Are msft games fully funded via gp
Dollar amt per consumer (last metric was 9 usd )
Lastly we had a number of 70% of the Xbox base now at 80%; interesting 🤔
 
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*Reads the last 2 pages*

We went from "it's sustainable" to "it's not sustainable so just increase the price, they all do"

In just 3 short years from the True Believers™

Cool revisionist history.

06GBkRH.png


Here’s a more accurate history of GAF discussion on this. The funniest part is any time there’s a price hike, people act like no one saw it coming and subscribers all thought it would be dirt cheap forever.
 

laynelane

Member
It would still be Game Pass as what it is offering is access to Xbox games. They can do day one access as well, for the "Ultimate" tier. My point was, the precedent has already been set by EA Play and Ubisoft+ and the key difference between these sub offerings vs Game Pass was the day one factor which isn't there anymore for Game Pass standard. There might be other differences but they are all subscription based services providing access to games published by them. MS had no way to bargain with Sony or Nintendo before, but with their acquisitions, that has changed. Of course, whatever deal they make, will have to favor both Sony/Nintendo as well, otherwise, yeah, they won't do it.

Game Pass differs from EA Play and others like it because it offers games besides the publishers. Unless I'm misunderstanding that - I don't have any sub services. In either form, Game Pass as it is now or a MS only titles version - there is no sound financial reason for Sony or Nintendo to put it on their platforms. I would also argue they still have no way to bargain with Sony and Nintendo - that's why they're releasing more and more titles on both platforms and moving towards becoming a third-party publisher.

Game Pass has been around for over seven years. If people want it, they know where to go. It should be fairly clear by this point that the interest simply isn't there for the majority of Sony and Nintendo customers, though.
 
Game Pass differs from EA Play and others like it because it offers games besides the publishers. Unless I'm misunderstanding that - I don't have any sub services. In either form, Game Pass as it is now or a MS only titles version - there is no sound financial reason for Sony or Nintendo to put it on their platforms. I would also argue they still have no way to bargain with Sony and Nintendo - that's why they're releasing more and more titles on both platforms and moving towards becoming a third-party publisher.

Game Pass has been around for over seven years. If people want it, they know where to go. It should be fairly clear by this point that the interest simply isn't there for the majority of Sony and Nintendo customers, though.

Yes, GamePass offers games from many publishers, EA is only EA games last I checked, and I assume the same for Ubi, their titles looked like all Ubishit last I saw it.

Ubi does offer a day one release tier of their service but AFAIK that’s not on PS5, on PS5 it’s a curated selection of “classic” games. I don’t think Sony will ever allow a GamePass with day one games on it, so GamePass Core or Standard or whatever it’s called could work. Sony would also probably limit what games they can offer like they do Ubi+.
 
Kind of obvious that day and date releases are awesome for customers, but less so for companies releasing tentpole games better served in dollars and cents by actually buying the game. I mean hell, I'm here playing Indiana Jones right now off a 3 month GPU trial code I got with a Legion Go purchase last summer( and I've got Hellblade 2 loaded up next). I would easily buy Indy if that was the only available option to me right now ( I may buy it anyways for PS5 on like a hot Black Friday deal, but still.....).
 

laynelane

Member
Yes, GamePass offers games from many publishers, EA is only EA games last I checked, and I assume the same for Ubi, their titles looked like all Ubishit last I saw it.

Ubi does offer a day one release tier of their service but AFAIK that’s not on PS5, on PS5 it’s a curated selection of “classic” games. I don’t think Sony will ever allow a GamePass with day one games on it, so GamePass Core or Standard or whatever it’s called could work. Sony would also probably limit what games they can offer like they do Ubi+.

Thanks for clarifying what each sub service entails. I think the problem with Game Pass on other console platforms - in a curated form - is just that MS is the publisher/owner of so many IPs. It wouldn't be just the original Xbox first-party titles - it would be Bethesda/Zenimax, ABK, etc. So many titles that Sony and Nintendo would no longer get their cut from in individual sales. It's hard to believe they would green-light this, but I suppose this is all speculation and time will tell.
 
Thanks for clarifying what each sub service entails. I think the problem with Game Pass on other console platforms - in a curated form - is just that MS is the publisher/owner of so many IPs. It wouldn't be just the original Xbox first-party titles - it would be Bethesda/Zenimax, ABK, etc. So many titles that Sony and Nintendo would no longer get their cut from in individual sales. It's hard to believe they would green-light this, but I suppose this is all speculation and time will tell.

Exactly right. I think this is exactly why Ubisoft+ with the day one games isn’t on PS5 and it’s just a curated list of classic games Sony wouldn’t be missing out on revenue from.

The only way Sony allows it is if Ultimate isn’t on PS5, and even then, I bet PlayStation would get the “standard” GamePass Standard, it would be a curated list Sony allows. For example, probably no Forza Motorsports on it because they don’t want competition for GT7, etc. Similar again to how Ubi had to create a new product to get it on PlayStation.
 

Oppoi

Member
Exactly right. I think this is exactly why Ubisoft+ with the day one games isn’t on PS5 and it’s just a curated list of classic games Sony wouldn’t be missing out on revenue from.

The only way Sony allows it is if Ultimate isn’t on PS5, and even then, I bet PlayStation would get the “standard” GamePass Standard, it would be a curated list Sony allows. For example, probably no Forza Motorsports on it because they don’t want competition for GT7, etc. Similar again to how Ubi had to create a new product to get it on PlayStation.
You would just love for the whole industry to go down the McDonalds fast food route wouldn't you?
 

sainraja

Member
Game Pass differs from EA Play and others like it because it offers games besides the publishers. Unless I'm misunderstanding that - I don't have any sub services. In either form, Game Pass as it is now or a MS only titles version - there is no sound financial reason for Sony or Nintendo to put it on their platforms. I would also argue they still have no way to bargain with Sony and Nintendo - that's why they're releasing more and more titles on both platforms and moving towards becoming a third-party publisher.

Game Pass has been around for over seven years. If people want it, they know where to go. It should be fairly clear by this point that the interest simply isn't there for the majority of Sony and Nintendo customers, though.
Yeah, that is true, that within their own ecosystem they offer games from other publishers but when it comes to bringing game pass over to PS or Nintendo, they'd have to focus on their first-party titles otherwise it will be a challenge to convince Sony/Nintendo. So, I was basically saying that they'd have to create a separate offering of Game Pass without the third-party games which would allow them to bundle it with PS+ or just a separate add-on.
 

adamsapple

Or is it just one of Phil's balls in my throat?
*Reads the last 2 pages*

We went from "it's sustainable" to "it's not sustainable so just increase the price, they all do"

In just 3 short years from the True Believers™

Man, come on.

What sub service hasn't increased in price in the last 3 years? They don't all have the '80b albatros' as the incentive and reason to increase the price like some argue Game Pass has.

Of all the possible and better arguments, this is the weakest one.
 

Ev1L AuRoN

Member
I think the game pass model is brilliant, the only hiccup is that Microsoft is putting AAA day one on the service. They should be printing money right now if they kept their games selling at a premium for a year, then putting them on the service. Game pass would still be awesome without the day one launches, but it could be profitable way sooner.
 
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