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[funkygunther]

Yes they made mistakes. So you are now expecting Germany should throw away their entire economy because some politicians made a mistake?

What alternatives to ease the economic pressure on ordinary people have been discussed by German politicians?

Is it being presented to the German public as all or nothing?

 

[HoodWinked]

Germany is an embarrassment. Poland used to import a shitload of oil while being a less wealthy nation and they halted imports. Every dollar the US spends in Ukraine is countered by Germany, literally WW2 where we're fighting against Germany.

 

[zeomax]

What alternatives to ease the economic pressure on ordinary people have been discussed by German politicians?

Reduce taxes is the major thing what they are planning.
For example since this month they reduced the taxes for gasoline by 30 cent. But stupid as they are they didn't make it mandatory for the oil companies only optional. And of course it happened what every normal person expected the oil companies reduced the prices by only about 5 cent and keeping the 25cent from the tax in their own pockets.

 

[kuncol02]

But stupid as they are they didn't make it mandatory

You think they did that by mistake? They did that on purpose.
Maybe it's time for german people to understand that your politician are as corrupt as in every other country (or maybe even more, I can't imagine Gerhard Schröder and Merkel situation in my country) and they do what's good for they benefactors not people.

 

[Sakura]

Germany is an embarrassment. Poland used to import a shitload of oil while being a less wealthy nation and they halted imports. Every dollar the US spends in Ukraine is countered by Germany, literally WW2 where we're fighting against Germany.

When did Poland halt oil imports?
As far as I am aware they pledged to end pipeline imports of oil by the end of the year. Germany made the same pledge. Neither of them have done it yet though.

 

[zeomax]

literally WW2 where we're fighting against Germany.

 

[sankt-Antonio]

No. But they did promise ‘never again’ after they committed countless war atrocities themselves, so you’d think they’d be a bit more willing to sacrifice their large economy to save lives - especially considering they were warned not to get into bed with Russia repeatedly.

This is not about money. It’s about energy. There is not enough LFP storage, Gas storage has not been filled up (with Russian gas) prior to this attack (I’ll tell you later why that is), Nuclear has been and is still in the process of being dismantled in Germany (“for the benefit of future generations”). You can’t get more Coal mines just by the snap of a finger.

Buying Oil and Gas from Saudis is already a done deal, but sadly Germany is not the only country that wants to buy this stuff right now. So even if they would they could not get much more.

Germany, trying a policy of economic friendship and deep ties to uphold what they swore to do (“never again” ) with Russia failed miserably. They where so close to Russia they didn’t even care to fill their gas tanks, because why would they - Russia is an economic partner.
That policy was worth the shot, had Putin not gone crazy it might have worked out.

Now people need energy, winter is around the corner etc. Arnold can hide in one of his luxurious houses in different parts of the world. Some Germans will not have enough energy to heat their homes.

The energy plan of Germany has backfired and its maybe in the worst position (within EU). France with its high Nuclear capacity could do this no problem.

 

[winjer]

I bet Putin was laughing his way to the bank, when he saw Germany closing it's nuclear power stations.
This was one of Germany's biggest screw ups of the century. In environmental, economic and geo-political terms.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

If Germany cut off its oil and gas from Russia, it would plunge the country into recession.

And nothing else. No power would go off. Germany would just be poorer.

Germany (or at least the German government) has decided this is not worth doing to save Ukraine.

Yes, let's save Ukraine by destabilizing the EU even further. Big brain time.

 

[M1chl]

I bet Putin was laughing his way to the bank, when he saw Germany closing it's nuclear power stations.
This was one of Germany's biggest screw ups of the century. In environmental, economic and geo-political terms.

There was some talks here, not too long ago (but before invasion), that there are Russia-backed environmental groups to undermine energy self-sustainability in Czech Rep.

 

[M1chl]

Message from Medvedev

 

[kuncol02]

Germany, trying a policy of economic friendship and deep ties to uphold what they swore to do (“never again” ) with Russia failed miserably. They where so close to Russia they didn’t even care to fill their gas tanks, because why would they - Russia is an economic partner.
That policy was worth the shot, had Putin not gone crazy it might have worked out.

If only there would be anyone to warn them about that. Maybe someone like president of US, or maybe every fucking country between them and Russia.

 

[RJMacready73]

If only there would be anyone to warn them about that. Maybe someone like president of US, or maybe every fucking country between them and Russia.

The Germans knew fine well what they where getting into, they didn't need warned, this was purely self interest, unfortunately it took an invasion of a democratic European country to wake the fucking EU up, well they've now woken up and they're doing all that they can as the saying goes.. better late than never

 

[zeomax]

I bet Putin was laughing his way to the bank, when he saw Germany closing it's nuclear power stations.
This was one of Germany's biggest screw ups of the century. In environmental, economic and geo-political terms.

In short term yes it was the wrong decision. But in long term it is the right way to transit to reneweble energy. Like previously said the decision was not made for the current generation but for the next.

 

[winjer]

In short term yes it was the wrong decision. But in long term it is the right way to transit to reneweble energy. Like previously said the decision was not made for the current generation but for the next.

But Germany didn't transition to renewables. They transitioned into more gas, oil and coal.
This is the opposite of environmentally and sustainability.

 

[sankt-Antonio]

If only there would be anyone to warn them about that. Maybe someone like president of US, or maybe every fucking country between them and Russia.

Its not that easy. You can say that now in hindsight, but for Germany piece on the continent was worth really trying it - it worked with the EU, the close ties of these countries lead to a war free time unheard of in recorded EU history.
Everybody knew Russia is difficult, but hey Germany is "friends" with the US and the US has pulled equally bad stuff in Afghanistan, Iran, Irak etc. Continental powers will always do powerplays. At some point you have to decide on what team you want to be on, Germany did that this year and is correcting its strategy.

But Germany didn't transition to renewables. They transitioned into more gas, oil and coal.
This is the opposite of environmentally and sustainability.

Thanks to Russia they will (faster). Germany has signed the Paris agreement for CO2 neutrality by 2050, so coal would have gone ways anyways. Its going to happen sooner now.

Edit:
In 2013-17(?) Germany was leading the race to renewables, have been a solar powerhouse - until Merkel killed the Industry, reverted to Coal and basically fucked Germany some decades back.
Go look at TED talks from that timeframe, Germany is being portrayed as the shining example of renewables. How quick this can all change...

 

[Wildebeest]

Babushka Z: The woman who became a Russian propaganda icon

A video of an elderly woman brandishing a Soviet flag went viral, but what really happened?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[FunkMiller]

Now people need energy, winter is around the corner etc. Arnold can hide in one of his luxurious houses in different parts of the world. Some Germans will not have enough energy to heat their homes.

The energy plan of Germany has backfired and its maybe in the worst position (within EU). France with its high Nuclear capacity could do this no problem.

I have yet to see any evidence that Germans will not be able to heat their homes if Germany cuts off its oil and gas supply from Russia.

What will happen is that energy supplies would have to be diverted more or less from industry, to the population and infrastructure. This will have a dramatic effect on the German economy.

So, again... Germany can cut off its oil and gas from Russia, without any Germans suffering directly. But it would probably cripple the German economy. The central bank forecasts a 5% of lost economic output.

Germany does not want to do this to save Ukrainians from war atrocities.

You may decide that this is a price worth paying not to hurt the German economy, but lets not pretend Germans would be freezing in their houses, eh?

 

[FunkMiller]

Yes, let's save Ukraine by destabilizing the EU even further. Big brain time.

Whereas allowing a despotic government to be allowed to invade and murder countless people in a country right next to the EU is extremely stabilising?

Germany’s economy being damaged is far less of a problem for regional stability than sovereign countries being invaded and occupied by authoritarian dictatorships.

Cant really believe this needs pointing out.

 

[sankt-Antonio]

I have yet to see any evidence that Germans will not be able to heat their homes if Germany cuts off its oil and gas supply from Russia.

What will happen is that energy supplies would have to be diverted more or less from industry, to the population and infrastructure. This will have a dramatic effect on the German economy.

So, again... Germany can cut off its oil and gas from Russia, without any Germans suffering directly. But it would probably cripple the German economy. The central bank forecasts a 5% of lost economic output.

Germany does not want to do this to save Ukrainians from war atrocities.

You may decide that this is a price worth paying not to hurt the German economy, but lets not pretend Germans would be freezing in their houses, eh?

As you said it yourself, there is not going to be enough energy for everyone.
Rationing energy will lead to people not heating their homes as the other possibility (scenario 1) is the destruction (not monetary) of Industries that can't just stop working for a year or two. Germany is an exporting nation, it would be fucked. In this scenario Germany would hit recess so hard it would stop supporting Ukraine on the spot.

So its going to be people not having gas for heating so that the nation as a whole can try to exist down the line in the same level of comfort they are used right now (scenario 2).
This is not Croatia that makes its money from tourism where if they take a hit for a year, tourism doesn't suddenly stops being an option. Germany without Siemens, Bosch, BMW, VW, Mercedes, Kraus Maffei etc. is ... worse off than Spain or Portugal.

So the actual way of doing it is (scenario 3 = current plan), still getting gas from Russia, coming up with plans to off set them within a year, supporting Ukraine with weapons etc. You really think Russia is stopping the war because they loose money from Germany? They aren't paying their soldiers as of now, they will just continue.

 

[Karlinel]

It’s pathetic that Iraq got invaded over Kuwait and then over false WMDs, yet a fascist dictatorship that uses WMDs regularly during their genocidal invasion AND tries to crash our economies, is totally off-limits. Fuck russian shitstains and fuck western cowardice.

 

[Deleted member 1159]

The EU still hasn’t accepted reality

 

[kuncol02]

Its not that easy. You can say that now in hindsight, but for Germany piece on the continent was worth really trying it - it worked with the EU, the close ties of these countries lead to a war free time unheard of in recorded EU history.
Everybody knew Russia is difficult, but hey Germany is "friends" with the US and the US has pulled equally bad stuff in Afghanistan, Iran, Irak etc. Continental powers will always do powerplays. At some point you have to decide on what team you want to be on, Germany did that this year and is correcting its strategy.



Thanks to Russia they will (faster). Germany has signed the Paris agreement for CO2 neutrality by 2050, so coal would have gone ways anyways. Its going to happen sooner now.

Edit:
In 2013-17(?) Germany was leading the race to renewables, have been a solar powerhouse - until Merkel killed the Industry, reverted to Coal and basically fucked Germany some decades back.
Go look at TED talks from that timeframe, Germany is being portrayed as the shining example of renewables. How quick this can all change...

For at least 14 years (since Georgia) that should be obvious for anyone who isn't corrupt german politician that their prorussian politics are not working. They had 14 years to become not 100% dependent on Russian gas. What they did in that time? They become even more dependent. In last 20 years Germoney did everything opposite of what they should do. They sold lives of Ukrainians for profit. In that they are worse that russians. Russians don't hide what they do, Germans are acting like they are beacon of law and democracy in Europe when in reality they are one of most corrupt countries there.

 

[Deleted member 1159]

Possible bad news about Navalny

 

[Karlinel]

Possible bad news about Navalny

Sorry for him, won’t change a thing. Russia is beyond hope and tech sanctions are the only way. Let them eat crude.

 

[FunkMiller]

As you said it yourself, there is not going to be enough energy for everyone.
Rationing energy will lead to people not heating their homes as the other possibility (scenario 1) is the destruction (not monetary) of Industries that can't just stop working for a year or two. Germany is an exporting nation, it would be fucked. In this scenario Germany would hit recess so hard it would stop supporting Ukraine on the spot.

So its going to be people not having gas for heating so that the nation as a whole can try to exist down the line in the same level of comfort they are used right now (scenario 2).
This is not Croatia that makes its money from tourism where if they take a hit for a year, tourism doesn't suddenly stops being an option. Germany without Siemens, Bosch, BMW, VW, Mercedes, Kraus Maffei etc. is ... worse off than Spain or Portugal.

So the actual way of doing it is (scenario 3 = current plan), still getting gas from Russia, coming up with plans to off set them within a year, supporting Ukraine with weapons etc. You really think Russia is stopping the war because they loose money from Germany? They aren't paying their soldiers as of now, they will just continue.

Yes. That's the point. Germany's economy would be damaged.

They have decided that is not worth it. Hence continuing to get gas and oil from Russia at the rate they do, and continuing to help fund Putin's war effort.

And please don't give me that whole 'it wouldn't make any difference if Germany stopped' nonsense. They contribute huge sums of money to Putin, as well as showing him he has nothing to fear from the EU nations. Of course he'd stop the war if Germany and the EU rejected him completely. We're talking billions of dollars here, and political will.

The cold, hard reality of this situation is that Germany have helped enable Russia for many many years, and now they do not want to accept the ramifications of doing this.

 

[sankt-Antonio]

Yes. That's the point. Germany's economy would be damaged.

They have decided that is not worth it. Hence continuing to get gas and oil from Russia at the rate they do, and continuing to help fund Putin's war effort.

And please don't give me that whole 'it wouldn't make any difference if Germany stopped' nonsense. They contribute huge sums of money to Putin, as well as showing him he has nothing to fear from the EU nations. Of course he'd stop the war if Germany and the EU rejected him completely. We're talking billions of dollars here, and political will.

The cold, hard reality of this situation is that Germany have helped enable Russia for many many years, and now they do not want to accept the ramifications of doing this.

Not damaged - fucked, taken over, sold to the Chinese. What do you think would happen in Germany then? That's right, a populist party would get in power, EU would be dissolved and Russia would have achieved all they ever wanted (as it turns out). For EU safety (including Ukraine), its imo of utter importance that Germany stays relevant/strong and a democracy.

Without Russian gas/oil Germany is fucked, you can't just turn that off within even a couple of months. Nearly half the energy would be gone. I hate that it came to this, but its the cold reality. Offsetting this takes time, it will happen - but its a fairy dream that's Germany could even think about straight ups cutting tries...

 

[Karlinel]

Idk about you guys, but I feel it’s pointless. Russians are just animals, without violence they won’t understand they can’t fuck around sovereign states. Its barely human population won’t say a thing bc muh empire, and they’d need a functioning brain and sobriety to get why it’s wrong.

And since west won’t do a damn thing, maybe in a decade they will run out of working cell phones and can’t pummel more countries into submission.

 

[FunkMiller]

Not damaged - fucked, taken over, sold to the Chinese. What do you think would happen in Germany then? That's right, a populist party would get in power, EU would be dissolved and Russia would have achieved all they ever wanted (as it turns out). For EU safety (including Ukraine), its imo of utter importance that Germany stays relevant/strong and a democracy.

Without Russian gas/oil Germany is fucked, you can't just turn that off within even a couple of months. Nearly half the energy would be gone. I hate that it came to this, but its the cold reality. Offsetting this takes time, it will happen - but its a fairy dream that's Germany could even think about straight ups cutting tries...

That's grossly overestimating the level of damage. I've seen zero forecasts predicting that scenario.

The Bundesbank predict a 5% drop in the German economy if a full embargo on Russian energy is introduced, leading a deep a recession for the country:

https://www.ft.com/content/fc767abf-6fa4-4e0c-943d-f582da3d033b

You're catastrophising to the point of absurdity, because you don't want to accept the fact that while damaging, an embargo on Russian energy is both possible, and survivable for the German economy, and the EU as a whole.

And I might remind you that the benefits of such an embargo to the people of the Ukraine far outweigh the disadvantages to the German people, or anyone else in the EU.

 

[Kenpachii]

If germany's ecenomy tanks so does the whole EU and after corona aint happening.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

If germany's ecenomy tanks so does the whole EU and after corona aint happening.

And if the EU tanks, the world at least partially tanks with it. That's why I'm glad that our politicians are not going out of their way to ruin the economy.

 

[Artoris]

I think the first thing Germany should do is reopen all its nuclear plants

 

[RJMacready73]

I think the first thing Germany should do is reopen all its nuclear plants

 

[FunkMiller]

And if the EU tanks, the world at least partially tanks with it. That's why I'm glad that our politicians are not going out of their way to ruin the economy.

Where have you seen evidence that this would happen?

I’ve seen no forecasts where this is a possibility. Can you like a source?

 

[Bernd Lauert]

Where have you seen evidence that this would happen?

I’ve seen no forecasts where this is a possibility. Can you like a source?

World economy is heavily linked. If one of the big bois tanks, all the others tank too, just to a lower extent. See 2008 as the most recent example.

 

[Darius87]

I bet Putin was laughing his way to the bank, when he saw Germany closing it's nuclear power stations.
This was one of Germany's biggest screw ups of the century. In environmental, economic and geo-political terms.

 

[Deleted member 1159]

I think the first thing Germany should do is reopen all its nuclear plants

I’m no nuclear engineer but I’m guessing this would be a multi-year process. Every country should be invested in nuclear if they’re serious about getting carbon neutral and stopping their propping up of fascist dictators, but it’s likely been too stigmatized. People are too focused on its potential pitfalls that they don’t realize that, of our available imperfect options, it’s easily the best.

 

[zeomax]

In that they are worse that russians. Russians don't hide what they do, Germans are acting like they are beacon of law and democracy in Europe when in reality they are one of most corrupt countries there.

You forgot that they are also all nazies

 

[akimbo009]

World economy is heavily linked. If one of the big bois tanks, all the others tank too, just to a lower extent. See 2008 as the most recent example.

This would be nothing like 2008. That was a pervasive structural failure in the global banking system. This is high energy prices with knock on inflationary and supply risks. It would be damaging to the global markets, and the EU if it closed off energy supplies from Russia...

But it would absolutely pulverize Russia. It would be a collective decision, but other countries are doing it or have done it. Progress is not always a straight line and Germany has arguably caused more discomfort in the modern world than pretty much anyone, seems reasonable they actually do the right thing here.

But back to the global impacts... China wouldn't fill any void. No one would because we are already seeing a global recession which lowers over all demand which lowers energy needs, and so forth. With less demand globally there wouldn't be immediate offsets elsewhere - if at all.

It's all strawman arguments all the way down for Germany justifying is immoral decisions. What fascinates me most is how much defense there has been for their behavior in their country - it's pretty bizzare that there's such a rally to protect their capitalist oligarchs and obviously bad geopolitical decisions.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

This would be nothing like 2008. That was a pervasive structural failure in the global banking system. This is high energy prices with knock on inflationary and supply risks. It would be damaging to the global markets, and the EU if it closed off energy supplies from Russia...

But it would absolutely pulverize Russia. It would be a collective decision, but other countries are doing it or have done it. Progress is not always a straight line and Germany has arguably caused more discomfort in the modern world than pretty much anyone, seems reasonable they actually do the right thing here.

But back to the global impacts... China wouldn't fill any void. No one would because we are already seeing a global recession which lowers over all demand which lowers energy needs, and so forth. With less demand globally there wouldn't be immediate offsets elsewhere - if at all.

It's all strawman arguments all the way down for Germany justifying is immoral decisions. What fascinates me most is how much defense there has been for their behavior in their country - it's pretty bizzare that there's such a rally to protect their capitalist oligarchs and obviously bad geopolitical decisions.

There's mostly consensus around here (I'm from Germany) that our Russia policy was rather stupid in the past. But no, we don't want to tank our economy even further. Inflation is already smothering the poorer half of the country.

 

[Decontamination Silo]

It's all strawman arguments all the way down for Germany justifying is immoral decisions. What fascinates me most is how much defense there has been for their behavior in their country - it's pretty bizzare that there's such a rally to protect their capitalist oligarchs and obviously bad geopolitical decisions.

You could argue this is exactly what Ukraine did when they decided not to surrender day 1.

 

[akimbo009]

There's mostly consensus around here (I'm from Germany) that our Russia policy was rather stupid in the past. But no, we don't want to tank our economy even further. Inflation is already smothering the poorer half of the country.

Inflation is smoothering everyone, and while I think it was going to happen regardless it's way worse cause dickhead Putin. However, I'd advocate ripping the bandaid off.

But Germany still currently denies and blocks resources and delivery to Ukraine from their own stocks and other western powers. So their problem goes way deeper than just energy.

 

[akimbo009]

You could argue this is exactly what Ukraine did when they decided not to surrender day 1.

What's that mean?

 

[Decontamination Silo]

What's that mean?

They're fighting a war to keep the very top of their government out of a Russian prison. The scenario with the least amount of lives lost was their gov surrendering day 1.

 

[zeomax]

Inflation is smoothering everyone, and while I think it was going to happen regardless

And now you expecting Germany should stop trying to stop it to do exact the opposite and accelerate the inflation?

 

[Karlinel]

They're fighting a war to keep the very top of their government out of a Russian prison. The scenario with the least amount of lives lost was their gov surrendering day 1.

Look, a fucking tankie.

 

[Decontamination Silo]

Look, a fucking tankie.

Best you've got?

 

[Karlinel]

Best you've got?

No, I could extend about how your indolence is apologetic of a genocidal campaign and based in lies and falsehoods…but you are a PoS and simply not worth it. Fuck off.

 

[FunkMiller]

World economy is heavily linked. If one of the big bois tanks, all the others tank too, just to a lower extent. See 2008 as the most recent example.

So, no actual evidence from any sources then?

 

[Decontamination Silo]

No, I could extend about how your indolence is apologetic of a genocidal campaign and based in lies and falsehoods…but you are a PoS and simply not worth it. Fuck off.

Realpolitik doesn't care about feelings though. I'm just talking in terms of raw loss of life statistics and economic disruption. Emotional foreign policy almost always makes these figures higher.