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Russia begins Invasion of Ukraine

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supernova8

Banned
There's a realistic chance Ukraine can push across kharkiv over the coming Weeks into a poorly defended part of Luhansk and take back a large chunk. Which sets them to take Luhansk itself which is huge or fuck up the Donbass front line by heading South and taking Donetsk. The big question is how much can be done before winter.

All that seems a pipe dream but you never know. Ukraine probably wanted to launch a similar offensive to take Melitopol. But maybe they'd redirect them North instead? Either way so many options for Ukraine now and they maybe able to choose more then one at once.

1. Attack Luhansk oblast From kharkiv

2. Attack Donbass frontline from the north (Luhansk)

3. Attack Melitopol

4. Continue push on Kherson

I'm very excited to see do things settle or does Ukraine continue to take territory daily in the north.
I was thinking if Ukraine only manages to push back to pre-24 Feb battle lines then Putin can hang on, but if they push way further than that, then this "special military operation" will be a clear net negative in terms of territorial shifts (before we even consider the human loss, economic loss, diplomatic standing-related losses) and I cannot see Putin surviving it (both politically and literally).
 

nemiroff

Gold Member
Full story and pics here: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-n...ldiers-literally-running-lives-chain-command/

Exclusive: Russian soldiers 'literally running' for their lives as chain of command collapses​

Ukraine intelligence unit tells The Telegraph they are struggling to deal with the mountains of equipment left behind after rout

Armoured fighting vehicles abandoned by Russian soldiers who changed into civilian clothing

Armoured fighting vehicles abandoned by Russian soldiers who changed into civilian clothing

Panicked Russian soldiers are abandoning their tanks, weapons and even clothes as they "literally run from their positions" in the face of a shock Ukrainian offensive, soldiers have told The Telegraph.
A Ukrainian intelligence unit on the front line said the Russian chain of command was broken and soldiers were fleeing without putting up a fight, many of them changing into civilian clothes to avoid detection.
A drone operator returning from the front line on Sunday also told The Telegraph that the speed of the offensive had even taken their own army by surprise, with troops struggling to recover the mountains of Russian ammunition and armoured vehicles left behind.
Watching the battles through reconnaissance drones and listening to Russian communications, the soldiers said Russian units were being obliterated before they had time to identify their enemy, while survivors fled amid the chaos.
In one intercepted communication, a commander with the callsign Birdie described hearing a Russian tank unit desperately asking what had happened to their command. “‘We are totally f—ed’.
“Then they fled. Later we found their burned tank.”

Ukraine is struggling to move all the Russian tanks, pictured, abandoned in the Kharkiv region during the counter-offensive

Ukraine is struggling to move all the Russian tanks abandoned in the Kharkiv region CREDIT: UKRAINIAN ARMED FORCES /via REUTERS

The first-hand description of the counter-offensive – one of the first describing an ongoing operation – belies claims by the Russian Defence ministry that Moscow’s retreat from Izium and other parts of occupied Kharkiv was a planned “regrouping”.
“They were really afraid, their chain of command was in chaos. Officers left the area before the fighting began,” Birdie said, describing listening to panicked Russian radio transmissions.
The 31-year-old commands a communications and reconnaissance unit in the Kraken Regiment that returned to Kharkiv from the liberated city of Balakliya on Sunday morning.

Listening in on enemy​

The unit had spent a week intercepting radio communications and surveilling Russian positions for a Ukrainian counter-offensive that is estimated to have routed Russian forces from nearly 2,000 square miles of territory since Tuesday.

A volunteer unit formed on the day of Russia’s invasion on February 24, Kraken operates in a grey zone separate from Ukraine's armed forces but answering to their defence ministry, giving it greater flexibility than other military units to discuss an ongoing counter-offensive that remains under a media blackout.
Having slept little since the operation, and with blue tape still tied around the sleeves of his uniform to identify him as a Ukrainian soldier, Birdie was upbeat describing the counter-offensive.

“It was the coolest thing I’ve ever seen in my life,” he said of his unit’s work coordinating Ukrainian ground forces via drone as they attacked Russian positions.
“I saw small units of up to five of our guys on foot who were destroying huge numbers or Russian vehicles – three tanks at one time,” he added, drinking a coffee on a chilly morning in central Kharkiv.
Russian soldiers and fighters from the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk regions had fled in a rout, he said.

Fleeing Russians​

“They left a huge amount of vehicles and ammunition. We couldn’t transfer or evacuate it all to our rear.”
Few of the pro-Russian forces stayed to fight, with many switching into civilian clothes to flee, Birdie added.
“There were a lot of uniforms lying around. We caught some of these guys trying to escape in civilian clothes, they were telling some incredible bullshit trying to save themselves.”
Other Russian troops were unable to distinguish their own forces from advancing Ukrainian troops.
“I heard them asking what were the white crosses on the vehicles. Then I heard them die in real time, while I was listening,” he said.

Tai, a 23-year-old drone operator, said the counter-offensive had advanced even faster than they had planned.
“The hardest task was coordinating all the groups operating inside Balakliya,” she said, describing how they had liberated the city faster than they had initially expected.
A Kraken commander who declined to be identified credited the unit with acting as the brains of a complex counter-offensive with their drones as the eyes.

“We need more drones, we need more more drones!” said Green, a 43-year–old drone pilot in the unit.

Further counter-offensives​

The unit is now expecting to redeploy in the near future for further offensive operations.
“I think it’s the beginning of the end for Russian occupants,” said Marty, a 25-year-old in the unit who comes from a Kharkiv village that was liberated last week.
“They were literally running from their positions, leaving their stuff and heading to the occupied territories. I think more significant gains are coming.”
 

BadBurger

Many “Whelps”! Handle It!
Yeah the stats are terrible , seems they don’t want to prosper, I don’t know. That or their leaders are filthy rich.

Yea, Russia is an oligarchy run by a dictator. Wealth doesn't trickle down. Hell, it doesn't ever find its way to the poor in almost any way in Russia. Many of these Russians Putin is sending to fight and die against far better men and women in Ukraine have never even experienced cities with paved roads, street lights, and full sewage system coverage. Putin wants to look strong on paper and enrich his sycophant oligarchs while the average citizen goes without.
 

Doczu

Member
This is all great news and with the estabilishment instabillity in Russia i hope Putin will go down soon. Only question is who might take over and hope they will be more willing to de-escalate.
 

Kerotan

Member
This is all great news and with the estabilishment instabillity in Russia i hope Putin will go down soon. Only question is who might take over and hope they will be more willing to de-escalate.
Whoever takes over next will be begged by his general's to let them leave ukraine.
 
Yea, Russia is an oligarchy run by a dictator. Wealth doesn't trickle down. Hell, it doesn't ever find its way to the poor in almost any way in Russia. Many of these Russians Putin is sending to fight and die against far better men and women in Ukraine have never even experienced cities with paved roads, street lights, and full sewage system coverage. Putin wants to look strong on paper and enrich his sycophant oligarchs while the average citizen goes without.

This war blindsided the oligarchs who have spent the best part of 30 years selling off Soviet assets in exchange for a place inside Western economies. Putin pulled the rugs from under this establishment in an apparent power grab even over these oligarchs.
 

Doczu

Member
Whoever takes over next will be begged by his general's to let them leave ukraine.
Yeah that's a given - the whole operation is a fiasco which will take it's toll for the next few years. Best Russia can wish for is losing all gained ground and going back to 2014 borders, but i think they might lose the Donets and Luhansk "republics".
Crimea is a tough nut, it has significsnt strstegical value and i feel they will not be so willing to give up on it.
 

FunkMiller

Banned
Crimea is a tough nut, it has significsnt strstegical value and i feel they will not be so willing to give up on it.

I don't doubt for one moment that Ukraine aren't eventually planning to go back into Crimea to liberate it. Strike while the iron is hot. And frankly, I don't see a situation where Russia will be able to stop them taking it back. It'll be bloody, but Zelensky's on a roll, and he'll have the weight of NATO behind him, who will see a restoration of Crimea as a potentially regime toppling move in Moscow.
 
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winjer

Member
Russia pretending to have better equipment that what they truly have, has been a factor for a long time.
A good example is the case of the Mig-25. The the 70´s this plane was thought to be the greatest threat ever to air supremacy.
Russia even had it break mach 3 near Israel radars, so that the west could see what it could do.
Then a Russian pilot defected with a Mig-25, into Japan. Japan and the USA tested the plane and tore it apart to see what it was capable of.
The conclusion was that it was a very underwhelming plane. With very lackluster performance and reliability issues.
Even the Mach 3 record was only achieved by pushing the engines so hard, they got seriously damaged.

Today Putin continues to claim during Russian´s weapons export shows, that their equipment is a decade ahead of the west.
But after this war, it has become very clear that Russian equipment lags well behind the EU, USA and China.
While the Ukraine still had mostly old USSR equipment to defend itself, Russia was able to make some gains.
But now that the Ukraine has more and more western equipment and personnel trained with western army's, Russia has trouble keeping up with the fight.
Even the regular soldiers have already realized they are at a disadvantage, so they flee in mass, leaving tons of equipment behind.
 

Ironbunny

Member
I don't doubt for one moment that Ukraine aren't eventually planning to go back into Crimea to liberate it. Strike while the iron is hot. And frankly, I don't see a situation where Russia will be able to stop them taking it back. It'll be bloody, but Zelensky's on a roll, and he'll have the weight of NATO behind him, who will see a restoration of Crimea as a potentially regime toppling move in Moscow.
And the US lend lease is just coming to effect
 

Doczu

Member
I don't doubt for one moment that Ukraine aren't eventually planning to go back into Crimea to liberate it. Strike while the iron is hot. And frankly, I don't see a situation where Russia will be able to stop them taking it back. It'll be bloody, but Zelensky's on a roll, and he'll have the weight of NATO behind him, who will see a restoration of Crimea as a potentially regime toppling move in Moscow.
I'd love to see Russia lose Crimea, so i'm hoping for the best. But unless the whole army collapses they will fight for Crimea and it will surely be a tough one to overcome. Losing Crimea will mean losing navy advantage for Russia and it will cripple their power. Which would be good
 

Tams

Member



I think it's much safer to overestimate the Russian or Chinese threat rather underestimate it and wake up being overpowered by them.

Pika-fucking-chu. Fuck yes!

And yes, it's still better to overestimate an adversary. I reckon Chinese forces could do better, but they have of the same problems, plus others like extremely vulnerable infrastructure that could cause massive issues across the board for them if destroyed.
 

FunkMiller

Banned
And the US lend lease is just coming to effect

Oh yes. That Ukrainian border is going to be the most effectively and heavily defended in history. And that amount of equipment will make taking back Crimea a lot easier. Does anything think the Russians won't just melt away if they're faced with some of the nastiest shit the US can come up with?
 

Dr.D00p

Member
And that amount of equipment will make taking back Crimea a lot easier

They won't take back Crimea.

For historical reasons Crimea has a place in Russian hearts & minds that is totally separate & unique to the rest of Ukraine, not least of which is the access it gives the Russian Navy to the Black Sea, which is something they will not countenance losing.

Of course, the Ukrainians could try & go for it, but I'd be willing to bet we'd be getting seriously, danger close to Putin using low yield, tactical nuclear weapons to stop them, if he saw Ukrainian forces massing near Crimea, at that point you'd have to hope someone in Putin's cabal of cronies would man the fuck up and take him out.
 

FunkMiller

Banned
They won't take back Crimea.

For historical reasons Crimea has a place in Russian hearts & minds that is totally separate & unique to the rest of Ukraine, not least of which is the access it gives the Russian Navy to the Black Sea, which is something they will not countenance losing.

Of course, the Ukrainians could try & go for it, but I'd be willing to bet we'd be getting seriously, danger close to Putin using low yield, tactical nuclear weapons to stop them, if he saw Ukrainian forces massing near Crimea, at that point you'd have to hope someone in Putin's cabal of cronies would man the fuck up and take him out.

Pretty sure they didn't countenance losing the entire Kharkiv oblast in three days.

Putin isn't using nukes. Ever. Because he would have done by now.

Zelensky isn't going to stop until Crimea is restored, and I see no evidence of the west trying to rein him in. It's going to happen.
 

winjer

Member
They won't take back Crimea.

For historical reasons Crimea has a place in Russian hearts & minds that is totally separate & unique to the rest of Ukraine, not least of which is the access it gives the Russian Navy to the Black Sea, which is something they will not countenance losing.

Of course, the Ukrainians could try & go for it, but I'd be willing to bet we'd be getting seriously, danger close to Putin using low yield, tactical nuclear weapons to stop them, if he saw Ukrainian forces massing near Crimea, at that point you'd have to hope someone in Putin's cabal of cronies would man the fuck up and take him out.

Crimea is the place where Russia has committed one of it's greatest crimes against humanity, the Tartar genocide, so it's to expect that Russians have a special place in their hearts.
 

FunkMiller

Banned
Putin hasn't used them yet because he hasn't reached the point of no return, but losing Crimea certainly will.

Nah. He's a paper tiger. He made threats about nuclear weapons repeatedly at the start if this war, and yet for every massive defeat he's suffered since, he hasn't used them. The Ukrainians literally blew the shit out of a Crimean airbase, and he still didn't do crap. And he won't. Because if he does, the NATO gloves come off.

What's going to happen is that Russia will be forced out of the rest of Ukraine, and then the Ukrainians will position multiple missile systems on the border with the peninsula, with every single Russian defensive position targeted.

That's when Russia will suddenly decide they want to 'negotiate in good faith'.
 

Kenneth Haight

Gold Member
I am absolutely amazed, when this invasion began, I was extremely pessimistic. I thought it would be a bloodbath ( I am not downplaying what has happened, it is absolutely 100% horrific and abhorrent ) But I thought Russia would have taken control of the majority of the country within a few months if I am being honest.

I am glad but also so sad to see the Ukrainian peoples struggle in the face of real evil. The families that have been affected by this war will never heal emotionally some of them. But if they can push the Russians back and humiliate them, at least that is some sort of victory.


Show no mercy, until every last Russian soldier is out of the country. Then we can start talking about financial reparations being paid to Ukraine for a significant period of time for the damage they have caused.

I hope it turns out that way, but this could just as easily turn in to an extremely nasty prolonged conflict.
 

Bitmap Frogs

Mr. Community
They won't take back Crimea.

For historical reasons Crimea has a place in Russian hearts & minds that is totally separate & unique to the rest of Ukraine, not least of which is the access it gives the Russian Navy to the Black Sea, which is something they will not countenance losing.

Of course, the Ukrainians could try & go for it, but I'd be willing to bet we'd be getting seriously, danger close to Putin using low yield, tactical nuclear weapons to stop them, if he saw Ukrainian forces massing near Crimea, at that point you'd have to hope someone in Putin's cabal of cronies would man the fuck up and take him out.

Oh I’m sure Putin will go bananas if Ukraine puts boots on Crimea, but I very much doubt nukes are on the menu.

He knows NATO will engage and at that point there’s no escenario where Russia survives.
 

Chittagong

Gold Member

Jesus. Al Jazeera doesn't write what-ifs of this magnitude willy nilly.

Al Jazeera are the official state owned news broadcaster of Qatar. Besides being allies with USA, Qatar is a strategic ally of China, and Qatar voiced support for the Turkish invasion of Syria aimed at ousting U.S.-backed Syrian Kurds.

Sounds like a done deal boys
 
Jesus. Al Jazeera doesn't write what-ifs of this magnitude willy nilly.

Al Jazeera are the official state owned news broadcaster of Qatar. Besides being allies with USA, Qatar is a strategic ally of China, and Qatar voiced support for the Turkish invasion of Syria aimed at ousting U.S.-backed Syrian Kurds.

Sounds like a done deal boys

Ill Be Back Jim Carrey GIF
 

DJ12

Member

Got to ask why it's taken so long, were they perfectly happy before the last few days, drinking Putin's cool-aid?
Show no mercy, until every last Russian soldier is out of the country. Then we can start talking about financial reparations being paid to Ukraine for a significant period of time for the damage they have caused.

I hope it turns out that way, but this could just as easily turn in to an extremely nasty prolonged conflict.
Ukraine gave the Russians a 10 goal lead so their comeback victory looks even sweeter. It's a shame they will betrothed to the UK and USA for many a year, but I guess they will consider them both worthwhile bedfellows compared to Russia.
 

Gp1

Member


+ 7 APCs and two T-72 from another post.

Beat that Germany.

One of the advantages of using Russian hardware is that you don't even need to retrain and rearm your troops when you eventually capture their stockpile.

The next offensive already have enough equipment to keep it going.
 
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nemiroff

Gold Member
Dunno if this is real, but it's a matter of time.



Don't forget, we got some folks stil carrying water for Russia.

Fuck me... Used to be a fan of Tucker Carlson. I got red-pilled a few years ago when the left was at its worst. But lo and behold, once I got to that camp, the right and does the same thing with lies, propaganda, conspiracy theories, anti-vaxx... I don't understand it..Tucker used to be a pretty good truth-seeker at one point, but now he's just an useful idiot. Same thing with my used-to-be favorite leftists like Russel Brand and Jimmy Dore (I don't even dare to look at what Glenn Greenwald is doing these days in case it's another disappointment) ... Anyway, I've made my own camp now, 95% facts and a little bit feels in between.. happy about that.
 
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EviLore

Expansive Ellipses
Staff Member
Fuck me... Used to be a fan of Tucker Carlson. I got red-pilled a few years ago when the left was at its worst. But lo and behold, once I got to that camp, the right and does the same thing with lies, propaganda, conspiracy theories, anti-vaxx... I don't understand it..Tucker used to be a pretty good truth-seeker at one point, but now it's just lies and propaganda. Same thing with my used-to-be favorite leftists like Russel Brand and Jimmy Dore... Anyway, I've made my own camp now, 95% facts and a little bit feels in between.. happy about that.
There’s comfort in being able to turn on some trusted talking head to receive “the truth,” but ultimately it doesn’t lead anywhere good. Even in cases where the person may not have had a specific agenda to start with, e.g. Brand, the power and influence shapes him. Especially in the era where you can see exactly what reaction your audience has to each segment you publish. To capture the largest audience you need an alternative viewpoint to the mainstream one, regardless of what’s factual.
 
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